NFL Playoff Odds - Update

Only 1 road team won in the wild card round of the playoffs, but there were actually a few upsets, including both 4-seeds winning despite being underdogs. Now that the bracket is set for the remainder of the postseason, it's easier to determine all possible future matchups, and this is my update of each remaining team's odds of advancing through each remaining round and winning the Super Bowl, with change from last week in parentheses:

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

(1) Lions - 72.3% (+4.4)

(2) Eagles - 68.8% (+37.5)

(1) Chiefs - 61.3% (+6.3)

(2) Bills - 52.0% (+21.9)

(3) Ravens - 48.0% (+7.4)

(4) Texans - 38.7% (+25.5)

(4) Rams - 31.2% (+19.3)

(6) Commanders - 27.7% (+12.9)

The teams that were not expected to win saw the biggest rise in their odds, while the Ravens barely moved at all, since they ended up with the toughest possible opponent, and the only possible road game they could have played. Kansas City saw a bigger bump than Detroit thanks to Houston's upset giving them a more favorable matchup.

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

(1) Lions - 48.4% (+2.9)

(2) Bills - 32.3% (+15.0)

(2) Eagles - 30.8% (+17.1)

(3) Ravens - 30.5% (+6.0)

(1) Chiefs - 26.2% (-0.3)

(6) Commanders - 11.4% (+6.0)

(4) Texans - 11.0% (+6.6)

(4) Rams - 9.3% (+6.3)

The only team whose odds dropped here are the Chiefs, who will have to face either the Ravens or the Bills in the next round, which is tough either way, even at home. The Eagles' odds are helped by facing the Rams this weekend, with a chance of the Commanders next week.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

(1) Lions - 29.7% (+1.0)

(2) Bills - 16.2% (+8.1)

(2) Eagles - 16.1% (+8.8)

(3) Ravens - 15.7% (+3.1)

(1) Chiefs - 10.5% (-0.4)

(6) Commanders - 4.8% (+2.5)

(4) Texans - 3.6% (+2.3)

(4) Rams - 3.4% (+2.2)

Buffalo and Philly saw their odds of winning it all double after advancing past tough wild card foes. Kansas City saw a slight drop here as well, but you can never count out a team with Patrick Mahomes at QB.

NFL Playoff Odds Update

After adding in the results of last weekend's 6 NFL playoff games and recalculating the odds of any potential future matchup, I've got an update on each team's odds of advancing through the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. Any change from last week's odds is in parentheses:

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

(1) Eagles - 69.5% (+2.3)

(1) Chiefs - 65.6% (-0.1)

(2) Bills - 60.5% (+11.2)

(2) 49ers - 58.1% (+8.2)

(5) Cowboys - 41.9% (+18.5)

(3) Bengals - 39.5% (+10.0)

(4) Jaguars - 34.4% (+14.4)

(6) Giants - 30.5% (+16.8)

Dallas saw the biggest increase because they avoided facing the Eagles for another round, which also helped the Eagles' odds slightly, while San Fran saw the smallest increase of the winners because now they have to face Dallas instead of Minnesota or Tampa Bay.

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

(2) Bills - 38.2% (+6.8)

(1) Eagles - 36.6% (-2.6)

(2) 49ers - 32.5% (+5.3)

(1) Chiefs - 30.4% (-2.4)

(5) Cowboys - 22.0% (+6.9)

(3) Bengals - 21.3% (+5.4)

(4) Jaguars - 10.1% (+3.1)

(6) Giants - 8.9% (+4.5)

Both 1-seeds saw their odds drop because their toughest opponents advanced, leaving them tough paths to the Super Bowl, but all 4 of the top seeds have very good odds of getting there.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

(2) Bills - 22.2% (+2.9)

(1) Eagles - 17.5% (-1.7)

(2) 49ers - 16.6% (+2.6)

(1) Chiefs - 15.3% (-2.0)

(3) Bengals - 11.1% (+2.5)

(5) Cowboys - 10.4% (+3.3)

(4) Jaguars - 3.9% (+1.0)

(6) Giants - 2.9% (+1.5)

Buffalo is the clear favorite, but there are 3 very good teams not far behind, and 2 more very solid teams that are definitely in the hunt as well.

My Picks

Divisional

(1) Chiefs over (4) Jaguars by 7

(2) Bills over (3) Bengals by 4

(1) Eagles over (6) Giants by 8

(5) Cowboys over (2) 49ers by 3

Conference

(2) Bills over (1) Chiefs by 3

(5) Cowboys over (1) Eagles by 2

Super Bowl

(2) Bills over (5) Cowboys by 3

NFL Playoff Odds - Update

5 of the 6 teams that I picked to win over the weekend finished the job, with only Dallas falling short after screwing up their clock management at the end of the game. I've updated my odds by adding in the weekend's results and updating all current and possible future matchups, which leaves a new overall favorite. Here are my current odds for the 8 remaining teams, with change from last week in parentheses:

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

1. Buccaneers - 57.6% (+21.2)

2. Packers - 55.2% (-1.5)

3. Titans - 54.3% (-2.2)

4. Bills - 51.9% (+18.9)

5. Chiefs - 48.1% (+7.7)

6. Bengals - 45.7% (+17.3)

7. 49ers - 44.8% (+28.3)

8. Rams - 42.4% (+18.4)

A bunch of favorites winning meant a slight drop in the odds for the #1 seeds, while all of the winners saw obvious increases, with the 49ers seeing the biggest jump after pulling off the only upset of the wild card round, and Kansas City seeing the smallest increase after they got the toughest possible opponent for their next game.

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. Bills - 33.4% (+12.3)

2. Buccaneers - 32.5% (+12.3)

3. Chiefs - 28.2% (+5.3)

4. Packers - 27.1% (-0.9)

5. Titans - 22.9% (-3.2)

6. Rams - 22.3% (+11.0)

7. 49ers - 18.0% (+10.8)

8. Bengals - 15.6% (+3.2)

Cincinnati saw the smallest increase in their odds because they will not be playing any more games at home this season, while Tennessee's odds dropped a bit because Kansas City and Buffalo stayed alive, giving the Titans a tougher opponent in the AFC title game if they get that far.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Bills - 19.3% (+7.5)

2. Buccaneers - 17.4% (+6.2)

3. Chiefs - 14.6% (+2.8)

4. Packers - 12.8% (-1.2)

5. Rams - 11.1% (+5.5)

6. Titans - 9.9% (-1.5)

7. 49ers - 8.3% (+4.9)

8. Bengals - 6.7% (+1.3)

Buffalo saw the largest jump after destroying New England, and they are now the favorite to win it all, though every team still has a decent chance, leaving it completely wide-open still.

My Picks

Divisional

(1) Titans over (4) Bengals

(2) Chiefs over (3) Bills

(6) 49ers over (1) Packers

(4) Rams over (2) Buccaneers

Conference

(2) Chiefs over (1) Titans

(4) Rams over (6) 49ers

Super Bowl

(2) Chiefs over (4) Rams

NFL Playoff Preview - 2022

I've broken down the odds of each team making it through each round of the NFL playoffs and winning the Super Bowl, and this season's playoffs are the most wide-open I can remember, which is something I also said last year. Last season, 4 teams had between a 12% and 17% chance of winning the title, but this year there are 6 teams between 10% and 14%, making this year even harder to predict. That being said, I did correctly predict 7 of the 8 division champions in the preseason, with Baltimore's late-season collapse the only thing standing between me and perfection. Here are the current playoff odds:

Odds of Winning Wild Card Round

1. Titans - 100% (bye)

1. Packers - 100% (bye)

3. Chiefs - 72.7%

4. Buccaneers - 67.0%

5. Bengals - 66.9%

6. Cowboys - 62.6%

7. Bills - 58.7%

8. Rams - 53.2%

9. Cardinals - 46.8%

10. Patriots - 41.3%

11. 49ers - 37.4%

12. Raiders - 33.1%

13. Eagles - 33.0%

14. Steelers - 27.3%

Home teams are favored in every single game this weekend, though a couple of them could and should be pretty close.

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

1. Packers - 56.7%

2. Titans - 56.5%

3. Chiefs - 40.4%

4. Buccaneers - 36.4%

5. Bills - 33.0%

6. Cowboys - 32.6%

7. Bengals - 28.4%

8. Rams - 24.0%

9. Patriots - 22.6%

10. Cardinals - 21.2%

11. 49ers - 16.5%

12. Eagles - 12.6%

13. Raiders - 9.6%

14. Steelers - 9.5%

The #1 seeds get a boost here because of the bye week, so they only have to win once to get this far, and they are followed by the two most recent Super Bowl champs.

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. Packers - 28.0%

2. Titans - 26.1%

3. Chiefs - 22.9%

4. Bills - 21.1%

5. Buccaneers - 20.2%

6. Cowboys - 18.7%

7. Bengals - 12.4%

8. Patriots - 11.9%

9. Rams - 11.3%

10. Cardinals - 10.0%

11. 49ers - 7.2%

12. Eagles - 4.5%

13. Raiders - 2.9%

14. Steelers - 2.8%

The top 3 seeds in each conference have a little separation here, but nobody is really out of it.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Packers - 14.0%

2. Chiefs - 11.82%

3. Bills - 11.81%

4. Titans - 11.4%

5. Buccaneers - 11.2%

6. Cowboys - 10.6%

7. Patriots - 6.0%

8. Rams - 5.6%

9. Bengals - 5.4%

10. Cardinals - 5.0%

11. 49ers - 3.4%

12. Eagles - 1.9%

13. Steelers - 0.90%

14. Raiders - 0.87%

Green Bay is a slight favorite because of home field all the way to the Super Bowl, but there is a logjam of other teams behind them with legitimate odds of winning it all, and another 4 with a decent chance.

My Picks

Wild Card

(2) Chiefs over (7) Steelers

(3) Bills over (6) Patriots

(4) Bengals over (5) Raiders

(2) Buccaneers over (7) Eagles

(3) Cowboys over (6) 49ers

(4) Rams over (5) Cardinals

Divisional

(1) Titans over (4) Bengals

(2) Chiefs over (3) Bills

(4) Rams over (1) Packers

(3) Cowboys over (2) Buccaneers

Conference

(2) Chiefs over (1) Titans

(3) Cowboys over (4) Rams

Super Bowl

(3) Cowboys over (2) Chiefs

Super Bowl Pick

After looking at all of the numbers for the entire season and factoring in a bonus for momentum based on recent performance, I am ready to make my pick for today's Super Bowl winner, which is:

Tampa Bay 37, Kansas City 24

NFL Playoff Odds - Update

Wild card weekend ended with the 2, 5, and 6 seeds winning in each conference, and only one of the 8 teams with the highest odds of advancing losing, that being the Pittsburgh Steelers. After entering the weekend's data and updating matchups, here are the latest odds of each remaining team moving forward through each round and winning it all, with change from last week in parentheses:

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

1. Chiefs - 68.1% (+8.4)

2. Packers - 54.9% (-4.3)

3. Saints - 50.52% (+9.0)

4. Ravens - 50.48% (+15.7)

5. Bills - 49.52% (+14.8)

6. Buccaneers - 49.48% (+10.6)

7. Rams - 45.1% (+22.3)

8. Browns - 31.9% (+20.9)

The only team whose odds went down was Green Bay, who lost out on their chance of facing Washington or Chicago, instead facing the Rams, who have a great pass defense and have been excellent at times this season. Kansas City got their wish to face the Browns, giving them a huge boost without even having played last week.

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. Chiefs - 33.2% (+1.4)

2. Ravens - 28.9% (+9.9)

3. Bills - 28.1% (+9.3)

4. Saints - 27.8% (+5.4)

5. Buccaneers - 27.0% (+5.4)

6. Packers - 26.1% (-4.6)

7. Rams - 19.1% (+8.9)

8. Browns - 9.8% (+6.3)

Baltimore's win over Tennessee helped them out a bit here, but they were also helped by Cleveland winning, which lets them face Buffalo this week instead of their kryptonite in Kansas City, giving them one extra week to prepare and hope that maybe the Chiefs slip up. Green Bay has a very tough path to the Super Bowl, no matter which all-time great wins this weekend in New Orleans.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Chiefs - 15.64% (+0.0)

2. Saints - 15.58% (+2.8)

3. Buccaneers - 15.1% (+2.6)

4. Ravens - 14.1% (+4.5)

5. Packers - 13.9% (-2.9)

6. Bills - 13.6% (+4.1)

7. Rams - 9.3% (+4.3)

8. Browns - 2.9% (+1.9)

These odds got even more muddled after that weekend, with 6 teams holding nearly even odds of winning it all, and the Rams still in solid contention. Only the Browns seem unlikely to win it all, but they are definitely not out of it.

My Updated Picks

Divisional

(1) Chiefs over (6) Browns

(5) Ravens over (2) Bills

(1) Packers over (6) Rams

(2) Saints over (5) Buccaneers

Conference

(1) Chiefs over (5) Ravens

(2) Saints over (1) Packers

Super Bowl

(2) Saints over (1) Chiefs

No change in my Super Bowl pick, just in the path to get there due to the change in matchups for this weekend.

NFL Playoff Odds

This Saturday the NFL Playoffs open with the wild card round, and it is the most wide-open contest in recent memory. Last season there were only 3 teams with at least a 7% chance of winning the Super Bowl, and this year that has doubled to 6, with no team's odds higher than 17%. Also contributing to the lack of a clear favorite is the fact that home field advantage is practically nonexistent this year, sitting at one-eighth of a point rather than the usual 2-3 points. Here are my odds of each team advancing through each round, assuming full health for each team:

Odds of Winning Wild Card game

1. Chiefs - 100% (bye)

1. Packers - 100% (bye)

3. Buccaneers - 72.9%

4. Saints - 71.3%

5. Steelers - 64.6%

6. Ravens - 63.1%

7. Bills - 61.0%

8. Rams - 50.9%

9. Seahawks - 49.1%

10. Colts - 39.0%

11. Titans - 36.9%

12. Browns - 35.4%

13. Bears - 28.7%

14. Football Team - 27.1%

The 4-seeds are the only true home underdogs, due to them facing the best wild card teams available, and Washington coming in with a 7-9 record. Seattle is a slight home underdog, but would be a favorite if Jared Goff is unable to play while recovering from surgery on his throwing thumb. 

Odds of Reaching Conference Championships

1. Chiefs - 59.7%

2. Packers - 59.2%

3. Saints - 41.5%

4. Buccaneers - 38.9%

5. Ravens - 34.8%

6. Bills - 34.7%

7. Steelers - 28.7%

8. Rams - 22.8%

9. Seahawks - 20.7%

10. Colts - 15.7%

11. Titans - 15.4%

12. Browns - 11.0%

13. Bears - 8.9%

14. Football Team - 8.1%

Kansas City and Green Bay have the advantage of only needing one game to advance this far, while New Orleans could be somewhat underrated here because they could have Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas play a full game together for the first time in months.

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. Chiefs - 31.8%

2. Packers - 30.7%

3. Saints - 22.4%

4. Buccaneers - 21.6%

5. Ravens - 19.0%

6. Bills - 18.8%

7. Steelers - 13.3%

8. Rams - 10.2%

9. Seahawks - 9.3%

10. Colts - 7.3%

11. Titans - 6.4%

12. Browns - 3.5%

13. Bears - 3.1%

14. Football Team - 2.6%

Honesty, any team could reach the Super Bowl this year, and Tampa Bay is hoping to become the first team to ever play a Super Bowl in their home stadium, though it would probably be with very few, if any, fans. 

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Packers - 16.8%

2. Chiefs - 15.6%

3. Saints - 12.8%

4. Buccaneers - 12.5%

5. Ravens - 9.6%

6. Bills - 9.5%

7. Steelers - 5.7%

8. Rams - 5.0%

9. Seahawks - 4.4%

10. Colts - 2.9%

11. Titans - 2.4%

12. Bears - 1.1%

13. Browns - 1.0%

14. Football Team - 0.9%

3 of the 6 old QB's in this season's playoffs have great odds of walking away with a championship, along with the defending Super Bowl MVP. The 4 with the best odds are the ones who have won a Super Bowl MVP before, and the 5 with the best odds are the ones that have won either a Super Bowl or regular season MVP.

My Picks

Wild Card

(2) Bills over (7) Colts

(3) Steelers over (6) Browns

(5) Ravens over (4) Titans

(2) Saints over (7) Bears

(3) Seahawks over (6) Rams

(5) Buccaneers over (4) Football Team

Divisional

(1) Chiefs over (5) Ravens

(2) Bills over (3) Steelers

(5) Buccaneers over (1) Packers

(2) Saints over (3) Seahawks

Conference

(1) Chiefs over (2) Bills

(2) Saints over (5) Buccaneers

Super Bowl

(2) Saints over (1) Chiefs

Drew Brees and the Saints upset the favored Chiefs, with Alvin Kamara winning the MVP and Drew Brees announcing his retirement after the game.

Super Bowl Prediction - 2020

After going through every game result of this year's regular season and playoffs and measuring each team's offense and defense against what was expected of them versus each opponent, I have made my pick for the winner of this year's Super Bowl, and that pick is:

San Francisco 28, Kansas City 26

Kansas City has a great offense, but San Francisco's defense is almost equally as great. On the flip side, San Francisco's offense is above average, but the Chiefs' defense was just average for most of the season, so the slight advantage goes to the 49ers, though I personally will still be rooting for the Chiefs to win and get Andy Reid his first Super Bowl title.

NFL Playoff Odds - Conference Round

The overall favorite was upset last weekend, leaving the race for the title wide open and shifting the odds dramatically. I've recalculated each remaining team's odds of making and winning the Super Bowl, and their change from last week is in parentheses:

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. 49ers - 71.8% (+25.0)
2. Chiefs - 64.1% (+33.7)
3. Titans - 35.9% (+27.1)
4. Packers - 28.2% (+7.4)

The only team who didn't make a huge jump here is Green Bay, who has to go to San Francisco, where they were obliterated earlier in the season. The 49ers got through their toughest test in the NFC last week, so they are much more likely to reach the Super Bowl now, though it's still far from a guarantee.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. 49ers - 39.0% (+16.7)
2. Chiefs - 34.0% (+17.2)
3. Titans - 16.2% (+12.3)
4. Packers - 10.8% (+4.0)

The 49ers are a slight favorite to win it all this year, but the Chiefs definitely shouldn't be discounted. The other teams are definitely alive, but both need to pick up a big upset this weekend first.

My Picks

Chiefs 26, Titans 20
49ers 29, Packers 20

Super Bowl

Chiefs 27, 49ers 24

NFL Playoff Odds - Divisional Round

Only 1 of the 4 home teams, Houston, won during Wild Card weekend, which created a big shift in the playoff odds after 1 weekend of playoff action. I've adjusted each team's rating based on last weekend's action, and reanalyzed the possible future matchups to determine each team's current odds of reaching and winning each remaining round, and I've included the change from last week's odds in parentheses:

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

1. Ravens - 77.1% (-5.1)
2. Chiefs - 75.1% (+12.4)
3. 49ers - 65.5% (-6.7)
4. Packers - 57.2% (+5.5)
5. Seahawks - 42.8% (+26.9)
6. Vikings - 34.5% (+22.0)
7. Texans - 24.9% (+15.7)
8. Titans - 22.9% (+16.1)

The Ravens and 49ers' odds both took a hit because of the 6-seeds winning, because both 6 seeds were better than any of the 4 or 5 seeds, who would have faced the top seeds if the sixes had lost. The same thing caused the 2-seeds' odds to rise, because they get to face the weaker competition rather than the tougher 3 seeds.

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. Ravens - 55.2% (-2.0)
2. 49ers - 46.8% (-2.6)
3. Chiefs - 30.4% (+5.9)
4. Packers - 20.8% (+1.9)
5. Vikings - 17.3% (+11.1)
6. Seahawks - 15.1% (+9.5)
7. Titans - 8.8% (+6.3)
8. Texans - 5.6% (+3.4)

The Ravens and 49ers are still the most likely to reach the Super Bowl, but both saw their paths get tougher as a result of last weekend's games. The Chiefs saw the biggest change among the teams who didn't play, because their path to the Super Bowl changed from going through the Patriots and Ravens to the Texans and Ravens, which appears much easier.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Ravens - 36.7% (-1.0)
2. 49ers - 22.3% (-0.7)
3. Chiefs - 16.8% (+3.5)
4. Packers - 6.8% (+0.8)
5. Vikings - 6.6% (+4.4)
6. Seahawks - 4.8% (+3.1)
7. Titans - 3.9% (+2.9)
8. Texans - 2.0% (+1.2)

The Ravens are still the best team in the league and the most likely to win it all, but Kansas City and Minnesota saw big jumps in their odds this weekend, as did the Seahawks and Titans, and nobody can be counted out. Whoever can win 3 games wins, and any of these teams is capable.

My Picks

Division

(1) Ravens over (6) Titans
(2) Chiefs over (4) Texans
(1) 49ers over (6) Vikings
(5) Seahawks over (2) Packers

Conference

(1) Ravens over (2) Chiefs
(1) 49ers over (5) Seahawks

Super Bowl

(1) Ravens over (1) 49ers

NFL Playoff Odds - 2020

After a final weekend that had over a dozen crazy playoff scenarios, very little actually changed in week 17, with Kansas City and New England swapping spots while the rest remained exactly where they had been. I've broken down every team's odds of beating any other team and where that game would be played, along with the odds of that matchup taking place, to determine each team's odds of advancing through each playoff round and winning the Super Bowl. Here is the full breakdown:

Odds of Winning Wild Card Round

1. Patriots - 67.2%
2. Saints - 61.9%
3. Texans - 51.6%
4. Eagles - 51.3%
5. Seahawks - 48.7%
6. Bills - 48.4%
7. Vikings - 38.1%
8. Titans - 32.8%

Home field advantage is very important here, especially in the 4-5 matchups, where the road team is the better team but must face the opposing crowd.

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

1. Ravens - 82.2%
2. 49ers - 72.2%
3. Chiefs - 62.7%
4. Packers - 51.7%
5. Saints - 33.4%
6. Patriots - 28.6%
7. Seahawks - 15.9%
8. Eagles - 14.4%
9. Vikings - 12.5%
10. Bills - 10.5%
11. Texans - 9.2%
12. Titans - 6.8%

The Saints odds are pretty decent here, despite the fact that they would have to go through Green Bay to get there. New Orleans better by quite a bit, so they would be favored in that game. The Seahawks also have a better chance of winning 2 than the Eagles, even though the Eagles have a slightly better chance of winning this weekend.

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. Ravens - 57.2%
2. 49ers - 49.4%
3. Chiefs - 24.5%
4. Packers - 18.9%
5. Saints - 15.4%
6. Patriots - 10.7%
7. Vikings - 6.2%
8. Seahawks - 5.6%
9. Eagles - 4.4%
10. Bills - 2.9%
11. Titans - 2.5%
12. Texans - 2.2%

Both 6 seeds move up a little on this list, because they would have already beaten the top seeds in the divisional round in order to be in the conference title game, so they would have a less formidable opponent standing in the way at this point than the teams above them.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Ravens - 37.7%
2. 49ers - 23.0%
3. Chiefs - 13.3%
4. Saints - 6.4%
5. Packers - 6.0%
6. Patriots - 5.7%
7. Vikings - 2.2%
8. Seahawks - 1.7%
9. Bills - 1.13%
10. Eagles - 1.12%
11. Titans - 1.0%
12. Texans - 0.8%

The Ravens, who haven't lost since September, are the clear favorites to win the Super Bowl, but it is far from a runaway. 6 teams have a legitimate shot, and none of the other 6 should be counted out.

My Picks

Wild Card

Patriots 28, Titans 21
Bills 21, Texans 20
Saints 28, Vikings 22
Seahawks 26, Eagles 24

Division

Ravens 27, Bills 12
Chiefs 23, Patriots 20
49ers 32, Seahawks 22
Saints 25, Packers 24

Conference

Ravens 24, Chiefs 17
49ers 32, Saints 27

Super Bowl

Ravens 28, 49ers 24

Super Bowl Prediction

The Super Bowl is tomorrow, with the perennial AFC champ New England Patriots taking on the Los Angeles Rams, who are in their first Super Bowl in 18 years, when they lost on a last-second kick to the Patriots and Tom Brady. I've analyzed every game score from this entire season, taking momentum into account, and have used this analysis to make my prediction for this year's final game. I am picking:

New England 30, LA Rams 29

NFL Playoff Odds - Update

The divisional round starts today, so I've added in the wild card scores and updated all possible remaining matchups to determine each team's odds of advancing in the playoffs and of winning the Super Bowl. Change in odds from last week is in parentheses:

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

1. Rams - 71.3% (+8.0)
2. Saints - 70.5% (-0.8)
3. Chiefs - 64.1% (+0.8)
4. Patriots - 53.3% (-3.0)
5. Chargers - 46.7% (+29.1)
6. Colts - 35.9% (+22.1)
7. Eagles - 29.5% (+19.5)
8. Cowboys - 28.7% (+16.0)

The Chargers were happy with the Colts win, which gave them a better divisional matchup and dropped the Patriots odds a bit as well.

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. Saints - 45.0% (+0.9)
2. Chiefs - 39.7% (-0.7)
3. Rams - 34.5% (+4.3)
4. Patriots - 23.4% (-1.5)
5. Chargers - 22.1% (+14.0)
6. Colts - 14.9% (+9.6)
7. Eagles - 10.9% (+7.7)
8. Cowboys - 9.6% (+5.7)

The Rams had the biggest bump during the bye due to the Seahawks and the Bears going down.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Saints - 25.3% (+0.1)
2. Chiefs - 20.6% (+0.0)
3. Rams - 18.2% (+1.9)
4. Chargers - 10.6% (+6.9)
5. Patriots - 10.5% (-0.5)
6. Colts - 6.6% (+4.4)
7. Eagles - 4.5% (+3.2)
8. Cowboys - 3.6% (+2.1)

The Chargers' win at Baltimore gave them the biggest bump in odds in every round, since it was an impressive road win coupled with an easier path for this weekend.

My Picks

Divisional

(1) Chiefs over (6) Colts
(5) Chargers over (2) Patriots
(1) Saints over (6) Eagles
(2) Rams over (4) Cowboys

Conference Championships

(1) Chiefs over (5) Chargers
(2) Rams over (1) Saints

Super Bowl

(1) Chiefs over (2) Rams

NFL Playoff Predictions - 2019

With the NFL season over and the playoff field set, it's time to check out every team's odds of advancing through the playoffs and winning the ultimate prize, and I will also be making my own picks. Out of the 12 teams to make the playoffs, the only one to end the regular season with a loss was New Orleans, who did not play their starters in the season's final game. I have entered every score from the season into my formula, then analyzed every possible matchup to determine the odds of every team advancing through each round.

Odds of Winning Wild Card Game

1. Bears - 64.8%
2. Texans - 58.6%
3. Ravens - 57.6%
4. Seahawks - 51.4%
5. Cowboys - 48.6%
6. Chargers - 42.4%
7. Colts - 41.4%
8. Eagles - 35.2%

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

1. Saints - 71.3%
2. Chiefs - 63.27%
3. Rams - 63.26%
4. Patriots - 56.3%
5. Bears - 25.5%
6. Texans - 24.7%
7. Ravens - 24.4%
8. Chargers - 17.6%
9. Seahawks - 17.2%
10. Colts - 13.8%
11. Cowboys - 12.7%
12. Eagles - 10.0%

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. Saints - 44.1%
2. Chiefs - 40.4%
3. Rams - 30.2%
4. Patriots - 24.9%
5. Bears - 11.50%
6. Ravens - 11.47%
7. Texans - 11.0%
8. Chargers - 8.1%
9. Seahawks - 6.6%
10. Colts - 5.3%
11. Cowboys - 3.9%
12. Eagles - 3.2%

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Saints - 25.2%
2. Chiefs - 20.6%
3. Rams - 16.3%
4. Patriots - 11.0%
5. Bears - 5.7%
6. Ravens - 5.4%
7. Texans - 4.7%
8. Chargers - 3.7%
9. Seahawks - 3.0%
10. Colts - 2.2%
11. Cowboys - 1.5%
12. Eagles - 1.3%

My Picks

Wild Card

(6) Colts over (3) Texans
(5) Chargers over (4) Ravens
(3) Bears over (6) Eagles
(5) Seahawks over (4) Cowboys 

Divisional

(1) Chiefs over (6) Colts
(5) Chargers over (2) Patriots
(1) Saints over (5) Seahawks
(2) Rams over (3) Bears

Conference Championships

(1) Chiefs over (5) Chargers
(1) Saints over (2) Rams

Super Bowl

(1) Saints over (1) Chiefs

Super Bowl Prediction

Football season is nearly at its end, with one big game remaining. The New England Patriots have the opportunity to become the first team in 13 years to repeat as champions, and the last team to repeat as champs happened to be the Patriots, and the opponent they defeated to repeat was the Philadelphia Eagles. Will history repeat itself, or will the Eagles change the narrative this time?

After analyzing the scores of every game this season, my Super Bowl pick is:

Philadelphia 26, New England 25

NFL Playoff Odds - 2018

The NFL Playoffs open this weekend with 4 wild card games, with 3 NFC teams featuring quarterbacks who have played in the Super Bowl, while the AFC field this week has never been there. I've broken down the odds of any team beating any other, which field they would play on, and the odds of that matchup occurring to determine each team's odds of advancing through each round and eventually winning the Super Bowl:

Wild Card Odds

1. Jaguars - 76.6%
2. Chiefs - 70.0%
3. Saints - 66.5%
4. Rams - 63.4%
5. Falcons - 36.6%
6. Panthers - 33.5%
7. Titans - 30.0%
8. Bills - 23.4%

Odds of Winning Divisional Round

1. Patriots - 76.5%
2. Eagles - 61.4%
3. Vikings - 61.0%
4. Steelers - 57.2%
5. Jaguars - 34.5%
6. Saints - 28.8%
7. Rams - 24.9%
8. Chiefs - 22.2%
9. Falcons - 12.8%
10. Panthers - 11.2%
11. Titans - 5.8%
12. Bills - 3.8%

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. Patriots - 51.5%
2. Eagles - 34.6%
3. Vikings - 32.0%
4. Steelers - 23.1%
5. Jaguars - 15.5%
6. Saints - 13.4%
7. Rams - 12.0%
8. Chiefs - 8.5%
9. Falcons - 4.4%
10. Panthers - 4.1%
11. Titans - 1.5%
12. Bills - 0.9%

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Patriots - 25.9%
2. Vikings - 20.1%
3. Eagles - 18.7%
4. Steelers - 9.2%
5. Saints - 7.3%
6. Jaguars - 6.4%
7. Rams - 6.2%
8. Chiefs - 3.0%
9. Falcons - 2.0%
10. Panthers - 1.8%
11. Titans - 0.3%
12. Bills - 0.2%

The defending champs have the best odds of winning it all this year, which would be the first time a team successfully defended their title since the Patriots did it 13 years ago. The Vikings are attempting to become the first team ever to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium, and they are the second most likely NFC team to reach the big game and the most likely NFC team to win it, thanks to home field advantage.

My Picks

Wild Card

(3) Jaguars over (6) Bills by 11
(4) Chiefs over (5) Titans by 8
(3) Rams over (6) Falcons by 5
(4) Saints over (5) Panthers by 7

Divisional
(1) Patriots over (4) Chiefs by 9
(3) Jaguars over (2) Steelers by 2
(4) Saints over (1) Eagles by 2
(2) Vikings over (3) Rams by 4

Conference Championships

(1) Patriots over (3) Jaguars by 6
(4) Saints over (2) Vikings by 1

Super Bowl

(4) Saints over (1) Patriots by 3

NFL Playoff Odds

The NFL playoffs begin this weekend with the 4 Wild Card games, and though the favorites all have byes this week, it is quite common for teams playing during Wild Card Weekend to reach or win the Super Bowl, so don't ignore these games. I have broken down the odds of each possible matchup and each team's odds of winning any given matchup to project each team's odds of advancing through the playoffs and winning it all.

Odds of Winning Wild Card Game

1. Steelers - 73.4%
2. Seahawks - 64.8%
3. Raiders - 58.8%
4. Packers - 58.7%
5. Giants - 41.3%
6. Texans - 41.2%
7. Lions - 35.2%
8. Dolphins - 26.6%

Pittsburgh should win, and Seattle will be a favorite, but the other two games are pretty much toss-ups, which make for fun games. There are 4 Super Bowl champs starting at QB this weekend, but only one waiting at home with a bye.

Odds of Reaching Conference Championships

1. Patriots - 76.6%
2. Falcons - 71.4%
3. Cowboys - 70.0%
4. Chiefs - 62.0%
5. Steelers - 29.6%
6. Raiders - 19.3%
7. Packers - 19.2%
8. Seahawks - 18.2%
9. Giants - 12.7%
10. Lions - 8.5%
11. Texans - 7.8%
12. Dolphins - 4.7%

The top seeds are the clear favorites to reach the Conference Championship games, with Kansas City facing the toughest path because of the high probability that they will face Pittsburgh in their first playoff game.

Odds of reaching Super Bowl

1. Patriots - 50.2%
2. Cowboys - 40.3%
3. Falcons - 39.4%
4. Chiefs - 27.1%
5. Steelers - 12.7%
6. Raiders - 7.5%
7. Seahawks - 7.2%
8. Packers - 7.1%
9. Giants - 4.4%
10. Lions - 2.2%
11. Texans - 1.9%
12. Dolphins - 1.1%

Nobody is out of the running to make the Super Bowl, but there is a very good chance that you will see Tom Brady and the Patriots playing in February again, and he probably won't meet his Kryptonite, Eli Manning, in that game.

Odds of winning Super Bowl

1. Patriots - 28.3%
2. Falcons - 21.3%
3. Cowboys - 20.2%
4. Chiefs - 13.4%
5. Steelers - 5.9%
6. Raiders - 3.3%
7. Packers - 2.9%
8. Seahawks - 2.8%
9. Giants - 1.7%
10. Lions - 0.7%
11. Texans - 0.5%
12. Dolphins - 0.3%

There are plenty of teams that could win it all, but there is an 83% chance the winner will be on bye this weekend, though there is a 43% chance that at least one of the teams will be playing this weekend.

My Picks

Wild Card
Steelers 28, Dolphins 18
Raiders 24, Texans 20
Seahawks 24, Lions 17
Giants 24, Packers 21

Divisional

Patriots 27, Raiders 19
Steelers 24, Chiefs 20
Cowboys 24, Giants 17
Falcons 30, Seahawks 21

Conference Championships

Patriots 25, Steelers 18
Falcons 27, Cowboys 26

Super Bowl

Patriots 27, Falcons 26

Predictions - 7 Feb

Upset picks are in italics.

Super Bowl

Denver vs. Carolina - Panthers by 5

NBA

Denver at New York - Knicks by 2
Atlanta at Orlando - Hawks by 2
Sacramento at Boston - Celtics by 7
LA Clippers at Miami - Clippers by 2

College Basketball

East Carolina at Connecticut - Huskies by 20
Siena at Marist - Saints by 9
(5) Iowa at Illinois - Hawkeyes by 11
(17) Miami (FL) at Georgia Tech - Hurricanes by 2
(12) SMU at South Florida - Mustangs by 16
Saint Louis at St. Bonaventure - Bonnies by 19
Iona at Niagara - Gaels by 7
Hofstra at James Madison - Dukes by 7
Houston at Tulsa - Golden Hurricane by 5
Rider at Canisius - Golden Griffins by 3
Manhattan at Fairfield - Stags by 9
Utah at (16) Oregon - Ducks by 8

Pick of the Day

Fairfield

The Stags are sitting right in the middle of the MAAC, and they are hosting Manhattan today, which is actually two spots ahead of them in the conference standings, but Fairfield is a slightly better team and has home court, so they are my pick today.

Prediction Results

NBA: 6-4 (.600) 505-263 overall (.658)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 48-77 overall (.384)
College Basketball: 108-45 (.706) 3248-1025 overall (.760)
Upsets: 12-8 (.600) 292-267 overall (.522)
Pick of the Day: 78-6 (.929)

NFL Playoff Odds - 23 Jan

This weekend the participants in Super Bowl 50 will be determined from among the 4 remaining teams, so I've recalculated each remaining team's odds based on every game they've played so far and all remaining possible matchups. Here they are:

Odds of Making Super Bowl

1. Broncos - 56.8% (+33.0)
2. Cardinals - 51.5% (+11.7)
3. Panthers - 48.5% (+26.0)
4. Patriots - 43.2% (+24.4)

The Cardinals had the smallest increase in probability this week, partly due to their close win over Green Bay, who they were favored to beat handily, while the other 3 were all picked to lose close games but came through at home.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Cardinals - 32.8% (+9.1)
2. Panthers - 27.0% (+16.1)
3. Broncos - 22.9% (+13.7)
4. Patriots - 17.4% (+10.4)

The two NFC teams have the best odds of winning this season's championship, but the AFC teams, both led by former champion quarterbacks, cannot be counted out.

My Picks

Conference Championships

(1) Broncos over (2) Patriots
(2) Cardinals over (1) Panthers

Super Bowl

(2) Cardinals over (1) Broncos

NFL Playoff Odds - 16 Jan

After a wild Wild Card Weekend, there are only 8 teams left in the NFL playoffs, with all four lower seeds advancing last week. Of the remaining starters, 4 were #1 overall draft picks (Manning, Smith, Palmer, and Newton), and the other 4 have won Super Bowls (Wilson, Brady, Roethlisberger, and Rodgers), with Manning having done both. Here are my updated odds of each team advancing through each remaining round:

Odds of Making Conference Championship

1. Cardinals - 71.8% (-3.9)
2. Chiefs - 57.5% (+22.3)
3. Seahawks - 54.8% (+23.5)
4. Steelers - 52.3% (+31.7)
5. Broncos - 47.7% (-4.5)
6. Panthers - 45.2% (-11.6)
7. Patriots - 42.5% (-7.1)
8. Packers - 28.2% (+10.9)

All 4 teams that didn't play last week saw their odds slip slightly due to the toughest teams getting through last week. Carolina took the biggest hit because Seattle got through and will face them this weekend, the worst case for the overall top seed.

Odds of Making Super Bowl

1. Cardinals - 39.8% (-3.2)
2. Chiefs - 33.4% (+16.1)
3. Seahawks - 26.4% (+11.2)
4. Steelers - 24.0% (+13.8)
5. Broncos - 23.8% (-2.9)
6. Panthers - 22.5% (-7.1)
7. Patriots - 18.8% (-5.0)
8. Packers - 11.2% (+5.4)

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Cardinals - 23.7% (-2.7)
2. Chiefs - 17.1% (+8.7)
3. Seahawks - 15.8% (+6.4)
4. Steelers - 11.4% (+6.5)
5. Panthers - 10.9% (-4.6)
6. Broncos - 9.2% (-1.3)
7. Patriots - 7.0% (-2.6)
8. Packers - 4.9% (+2.4)

My Updated Picks

Divisional Round

(1) Broncos over (6) Steelers
(5) Chiefs over (2) Patriots
(6) Seahawks over (1) Panthers
(2) Cardinals over (5) Packers

Conference Championships

(5) Chiefs over (1) Broncos
(2) Cardinals over (6) Seahawks

Super Bowl

(2) Cardinals over (5) Chiefs