NFL Playoff Odds

This Saturday the NFL Playoffs open with the wild card round, and it is the most wide-open contest in recent memory. Last season there were only 3 teams with at least a 7% chance of winning the Super Bowl, and this year that has doubled to 6, with no team's odds higher than 17%. Also contributing to the lack of a clear favorite is the fact that home field advantage is practically nonexistent this year, sitting at one-eighth of a point rather than the usual 2-3 points. Here are my odds of each team advancing through each round, assuming full health for each team:

Odds of Winning Wild Card game

1. Chiefs - 100% (bye)

1. Packers - 100% (bye)

3. Buccaneers - 72.9%

4. Saints - 71.3%

5. Steelers - 64.6%

6. Ravens - 63.1%

7. Bills - 61.0%

8. Rams - 50.9%

9. Seahawks - 49.1%

10. Colts - 39.0%

11. Titans - 36.9%

12. Browns - 35.4%

13. Bears - 28.7%

14. Football Team - 27.1%

The 4-seeds are the only true home underdogs, due to them facing the best wild card teams available, and Washington coming in with a 7-9 record. Seattle is a slight home underdog, but would be a favorite if Jared Goff is unable to play while recovering from surgery on his throwing thumb. 

Odds of Reaching Conference Championships

1. Chiefs - 59.7%

2. Packers - 59.2%

3. Saints - 41.5%

4. Buccaneers - 38.9%

5. Ravens - 34.8%

6. Bills - 34.7%

7. Steelers - 28.7%

8. Rams - 22.8%

9. Seahawks - 20.7%

10. Colts - 15.7%

11. Titans - 15.4%

12. Browns - 11.0%

13. Bears - 8.9%

14. Football Team - 8.1%

Kansas City and Green Bay have the advantage of only needing one game to advance this far, while New Orleans could be somewhat underrated here because they could have Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas play a full game together for the first time in months.

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. Chiefs - 31.8%

2. Packers - 30.7%

3. Saints - 22.4%

4. Buccaneers - 21.6%

5. Ravens - 19.0%

6. Bills - 18.8%

7. Steelers - 13.3%

8. Rams - 10.2%

9. Seahawks - 9.3%

10. Colts - 7.3%

11. Titans - 6.4%

12. Browns - 3.5%

13. Bears - 3.1%

14. Football Team - 2.6%

Honesty, any team could reach the Super Bowl this year, and Tampa Bay is hoping to become the first team to ever play a Super Bowl in their home stadium, though it would probably be with very few, if any, fans. 

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Packers - 16.8%

2. Chiefs - 15.6%

3. Saints - 12.8%

4. Buccaneers - 12.5%

5. Ravens - 9.6%

6. Bills - 9.5%

7. Steelers - 5.7%

8. Rams - 5.0%

9. Seahawks - 4.4%

10. Colts - 2.9%

11. Titans - 2.4%

12. Bears - 1.1%

13. Browns - 1.0%

14. Football Team - 0.9%

3 of the 6 old QB's in this season's playoffs have great odds of walking away with a championship, along with the defending Super Bowl MVP. The 4 with the best odds are the ones who have won a Super Bowl MVP before, and the 5 with the best odds are the ones that have won either a Super Bowl or regular season MVP.

My Picks

Wild Card

(2) Bills over (7) Colts

(3) Steelers over (6) Browns

(5) Ravens over (4) Titans

(2) Saints over (7) Bears

(3) Seahawks over (6) Rams

(5) Buccaneers over (4) Football Team

Divisional

(1) Chiefs over (5) Ravens

(2) Bills over (3) Steelers

(5) Buccaneers over (1) Packers

(2) Saints over (3) Seahawks

Conference

(1) Chiefs over (2) Bills

(2) Saints over (5) Buccaneers

Super Bowl

(2) Saints over (1) Chiefs

Drew Brees and the Saints upset the favored Chiefs, with Alvin Kamara winning the MVP and Drew Brees announcing his retirement after the game.