NFL Preseason Rankings

The NFL returns tomorrow with the defending champion Eagles hosting their rivals, the Dallas Cowboys, but the Eagles are not my pick to win the title this year. After working through all of the roster changes, as well as this season's schedule, I've projected how good each team will be, and how many wins that will translate to this season. Here are my full preseason rankings, as well as my picks for the playoffs:

				Actual		Proj
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	Seed
1	1	Detroit	-14.85			13	4	N1
2	3	Baltimore	-13.7			13	4	A1
3	2	Philadelphia	-12.38			13	4	N3
4	4	Buffalo	-9.778			13	4	A2
5	6	Tampa Bay	-9.109			12	5	N4
6	14	Cincinnati	-7.88			11	6	A5
7	9	Kansas City	-7.877			11	6	A3
8	18	San Francisco	-7.293			13	4	N2
9	5	Green Bay	-6.777			10	7	N5
10	7	Minnesota	-6.461			10	7	N6
11	10	Washington	-3.469			9	8
12	11	LA Chargers	-3.026			10	7	A6
13	13	Arizona	-2.173			10	7	N7
14	15	LA Rams	-1.584			9	8
15	8	Denver	-0.314			9	8
16	21	Miami	0.3367			9	8	A7
17	17	Houston	0.7078			8	9	A4
18	16	Seattle	1.5617			8	9
19	19	Atlanta	1.6371			8	9
20	25	Dallas	2.17			7	10
21	12	Pittsburgh	2.58			7	10
22	26	Jacksonville	5.5648			7	10
23	22	Indianapolis	5.7952			7	10
24	20	Chicago	6.2826			5	12
25	27	Las Vegas	7.5522			6	11
26	24	New Orleans	9.2763			6	11
27	23	NY Jets	9.674			5	12
28	29	New England	10.12			6	11
29	28	NY Giants	10.98			3	14
30	30	Tennessee	11.801			5	12
31	31	Cleveland	13.806			3	14
32	32	Carolina	15.011			3	14

Playoff Picks

Wild Card

(2) Bills over (7) Dolphins

(3) Chiefs over (6) Chargers

(5) Bengals over (4) Texans

(2) 49ers over (7) Cardinals

(3) Eagles over (6) Vikings

(4) Buccaneers over (5) Packers

Divisional

(1) Ravens over (5) Bengals

(2) Bills over (3) Chiefs

(1) Lions over (4) Buccaneers

(3) Eagles over (2) 49ers

Conference

(1) Ravens over (2) Bills

(1) Lions over (3) Eagles

Super Bowl

(1) Lions over (1) Ravens

The Lions will not only reach the Super Bowl for the first time in their history, they will walk away with the Lombardi trophy, giving the city of Detroit its first title in any major sport since 2008.

NFL Playoff Odds - Update

Only 1 road team won in the wild card round of the playoffs, but there were actually a few upsets, including both 4-seeds winning despite being underdogs. Now that the bracket is set for the remainder of the postseason, it's easier to determine all possible future matchups, and this is my update of each remaining team's odds of advancing through each remaining round and winning the Super Bowl, with change from last week in parentheses:

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

(1) Lions - 72.3% (+4.4)

(2) Eagles - 68.8% (+37.5)

(1) Chiefs - 61.3% (+6.3)

(2) Bills - 52.0% (+21.9)

(3) Ravens - 48.0% (+7.4)

(4) Texans - 38.7% (+25.5)

(4) Rams - 31.2% (+19.3)

(6) Commanders - 27.7% (+12.9)

The teams that were not expected to win saw the biggest rise in their odds, while the Ravens barely moved at all, since they ended up with the toughest possible opponent, and the only possible road game they could have played. Kansas City saw a bigger bump than Detroit thanks to Houston's upset giving them a more favorable matchup.

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

(1) Lions - 48.4% (+2.9)

(2) Bills - 32.3% (+15.0)

(2) Eagles - 30.8% (+17.1)

(3) Ravens - 30.5% (+6.0)

(1) Chiefs - 26.2% (-0.3)

(6) Commanders - 11.4% (+6.0)

(4) Texans - 11.0% (+6.6)

(4) Rams - 9.3% (+6.3)

The only team whose odds dropped here are the Chiefs, who will have to face either the Ravens or the Bills in the next round, which is tough either way, even at home. The Eagles' odds are helped by facing the Rams this weekend, with a chance of the Commanders next week.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

(1) Lions - 29.7% (+1.0)

(2) Bills - 16.2% (+8.1)

(2) Eagles - 16.1% (+8.8)

(3) Ravens - 15.7% (+3.1)

(1) Chiefs - 10.5% (-0.4)

(6) Commanders - 4.8% (+2.5)

(4) Texans - 3.6% (+2.3)

(4) Rams - 3.4% (+2.2)

Buffalo and Philly saw their odds of winning it all double after advancing past tough wild card foes. Kansas City saw a slight drop here as well, but you can never count out a team with Patrick Mahomes at QB.

NFL Playoff Odds - 2025

The NFL Playoffs begin today, and even though I didn't have time to post updated rankings throughout this season, I still kept track of all of the data, and I've put that all together to determine each team's odds of advancing through the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl, taking home field advantage and all potential matchups into account. Here is how it breaks down, along with my picks for how it will all turn out:

Odds of Winning Wild Card Round

(3) Ravens - 69.6%

(5) Vikings - 61.2%

(5) Chargers - 59.6%

(3) Buccaneers - 59.4%

(2) Bills - 56.7%

(2) Eagles - 53.4%

(7) Packers - 46.6%

(7) Broncos - 43.3%

(6) Commanders - 40.6%

(4) Texans - 40.4%

(4) Rams - 38.8%

(6) Steelers - 30.4%

Odds of Reaching Conference Championships

(1) Lions - 67.9%

(1) Chiefs - 55.0%

(3) Ravens - 40.6%

(2) Eagles - 31.3%

(2) Bills - 30.1%

(3) Buccaneers - 30.0%

(5) Vikings - 27.1%

(5) Chargers - 26.9%

(7) Broncos - 21.4%

(7) Packers - 17.1%

(6) Commanders - 14.8%

(4) Texans - 13.2%

(6) Steelers - 12.8%

(4) Rams - 11.9%

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

(1) Lions - 45.5%

(1) Chiefs - 26.5%

(3) Ravens - 24.5%

(2) Bills - 17.3%

(2) Eagles - 13.7%

(5) Chargers - 12.3%

(3) Buccaneers - 12.0%

(5) Vikings - 11.1%

(7) Broncos - 10.0%

(7) Packers - 9.1%

(6) Commanders - 5.4%

(6) Steelers - 5.1%

(4) Texans - 4.4%

(4) Rams - 3.2%

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

(1) Lions - 28.7%

(3) Ravens - 12.6%

(1) Chiefs - 10.9%

(2) Bills - 8.1%

(2) Eagles - 7.3%

(3) Buccaneers - 6.0%

(5) Vikings - 5.5%

(5) Chargers - 5.1%

(7) Packers - 4.8%

(7) Broncos - 4.3%

(6) Commanders - 2.3%

(6) Steelers - 1.8%

(4) Texans - 1.3%

(4) Rams - 1.2%

My Picks

Wild Card

(2) Bills over (7) Broncos

(3) Ravens over (6) Steelers

(5) Chargers over (4) Texans

(7) Packers over (2) Eagles

(3) Buccaneers over (6) Commanders

(5) Vikings over (4) Rams

Divisional

(1) Chiefs over (5) Chargers

(2) Bills over (3) Ravens

(1) Lions over (7) Packers

(3) Buccaneers over (5) Vikings

Conference

(2) Bills over (1) Chiefs

(1) Lions over (3) Buccaneers

Super Bowl

(1) Lions over (2) Bills

NFL Preseason Rankings - 2024

After working through all roster changes and injuries for all 32 teams and making adjustments from last season's final rankings, I've come up with my rankings for every NFL team for the season that starts tomorrow. The Jets are making the biggest jump, mostly due to gaining a competent quarterback after Aaron Rodgers missed basically the entire year in 2023, and Minnesota took the biggest fall after losing Kirk Cousins, then losing the QB they drafted to replace him. Here are my full preseason rankings:

				Actual		Proj
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	Seed
1	3	Kansas City	-10.86			13	4	A1
2	2	San Francisco	-10.76			12	5	N1
3	1	Baltimore	-9.65			12	5	A2
4	5	Buffalo	-6.491			10	7	A3
5	7	Green Bay	-4.997			11	6	N2
6	9	LA Rams	-3.919			10	7	N5
7	15	Houston	-3.879			10	7	A4
8	14	Cincinnati	-2.776			10	7	A5
9	4	Dallas	-2.379			10	7	N3
10	6	Detroit	-1.727			9	8
11	27	NY Jets	-1.635			9	8	A6
12	13	Cleveland	-1.363			9	8	A7
13	19	Chicago	-1.156			9	8	N6
14	8	Miami	-0.435			8	9
15	17	Pittsburgh	-0.186			8	9
16	28	Arizona	0.2757			8	9
17	12	Jacksonville	0.7121			8	9
18	23	Indianapolis	0.8373			8	9
19	21	Philadelphia	0.848			9	8	N7
20	11	New Orleans	0.9806			9	8	N4
21	10	Tampa Bay	1.1329			9	8
22	20	LA Chargers	1.358			8	9
23	25	Tennessee	1.8417			8	9
24	22	Seattle	3.3773			7	10
25	18	Las Vegas	3.8555			7	10
26	29	New England	4.1389			6	11
27	26	Atlanta	4.412			8	9
28	24	Denver	5.4777			6	11
29	16	Minnesota	6.9231			5	12
30	30	NY Giants	9.3838			6	11
31	31	Carolina	10.002			5	12
32	32	Washington	13.713			4	13

Playoff Picks

Wild Card

(2) Ravens over (7) Browns

(3) Bills over (6) Jets

(4) Texans over (5) Bengals

(2) Packers over (7) Eagles

(3) Cowboys over (6) Beras

(5) Rams over (4) Saints

Divisional

(1) Chiefs over (4) Texans

(2) Ravens over (3) Bills

(1) 49ers over (5) Rams

(2) Packers over (3) Cowboys

Conference

(1) Chiefs over (2) Ravens

(1) 49ers over (2) Packers

Super Bowl

(1) Chiefs over (1) 49ers