NBA Playoff Odds - 2025

The NBA Playoffs are starting this morning, now that the play-in tournament has ended, and the Oklahoma City Thunder are the biggest favorite I have seen in my time of predicting the playoffs. The top 2 seeds in the East have a chance as well, but it's pretty unlikely that the ultimate champion will come from any of the other 13 teams. One quick note: the Lakers odds throughout this post are probably lower than they should be. The team has had limited time together as presently constituted, and that means that much of their data consists of the first two-thirds of the season, in which they were playing at a play-in level, at best. Here are each team's odds throughout the playoffs, along with my picks for the results of each series:

Odds of Winning First Round

(1) Cavaliers - 95.0%

(1) Thunder - 94.2%

(2) Celtics - 94.1%

(6) Timberwolves - 71.9%

(3) Knicks - 66.1%

(2) Rockets - 60.5%

(4) Nuggets - 56.5%

(5) Bucks - 55.2%

(4) Pacers - 44.8%

(5) Clippers - 43.5%

(7) Warriors - 39.5%

(6) Pistons - 33.9%

(3) Lakers - 28.1%

(7) Magic - 5.9%

(8) Grizzlies - 5.8%

(8) Heat - 5.0%

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

(1) Thunder - 88.7%

(1) Cavaliers - 85.2%

(2) Celtics - 78.4%

(6) Timberwolves - 40.6%

(2) Rockets - 33.3%

(7) Warriors - 17.0%

(3) Knicks - 15.2%

(3) Lakers - 9.1%

(5) Bucks - 8.0%

(4) Pacers - 5.0%

(6) Pistons - 4.8%

(4) Nuggets - 4.4%

(5) Clippers - 4.1%

(8) Grizzlies - 2.8%

(8) Heat - 1.7%

(7) Magic - 1.6%

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

(1) Thunder - 82.8%

(1) Cavaliers - 54.8%

(2) Celtics - 38.1%

(6) Timberwolves - 5.5%

(2) Rockets - 4.1%

(3) Knicks - 3.4%

(5) Clippers - 2.11%

(4) Nuggets - 2.05%

(5) Bucks - 1.8%

(7) Warriors - 1.5%

(8) Grizzlies - 1.3%

(4) Pacers - 0.9%

(6) Pistons - 0.6%

(3) Lakers - 0.5%

(8) Heat - 0.2%

(7) Magic - 0.1%

Odds of Winning Championship

(1) Thunder - 65.8%

(1) Cavaliers - 18.3%

(2) Celtics - 10.9%

(6) Timberwolves - 1.6%

(2) Rockets - 1.1%

(5) Clippers - 0.54%

(4) Nuggets - 0.45%

(3) Knicks - 0.4%

(8) Grizzlies - 0.31%

(7) Warriors - 0.30%

(5) Bucks - 0.2%

(4) Pacers - 0.069%

(3) Lakers - 0.065%

(6) Pistons - 0.04%

(8) Heat - 0.009%

(7) Magic - 0.005%

My Picks

First Round

(1) Cavaliers over (8) Heat in 6

(2) Celtics over (7) Magic in 7

(3) Knicks over (6) Pistons in 4

(5) Bucks over (4) Pacers in 7

(1) Thunder over (8) Grizzlies in 6

(7) Warriors over (2) Rockets in 6

(6) Timberwolves over (3) Lakers in 7

(5) Clippers over (4) Nuggets in 6

Second Round

(1) Cavaliers over (5) Bucks in 7

(2) Celtics over (3) Knicks in 7

(1) Thunder over (5) Clippers in 7

(6) Timberwolves over (7) Warriors in 6

Conference Finals

(1) Cavaliers over (2) Celtics in 7

(1) Thunder over (6) Timberwolves in 7

NBA Finals

(1) Thunder over (1) Cavaliers in 5

NCAA Basketball Rankings - Final

Florida won the national championship last night, but since all four of the top seeds performed so well overall in the tournament this year, there was no movement at the very top of the rankings. Gonzaga moved into the top 10 to finished the season at #8, while UCLA and Ole Miss moved into the top 25 at the last moment. Here are my full final rankings:

Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L
1	1	Duke	-23.57	35	4
2	2	Auburn	-22.21	32	6
3	3	Florida	-22.11	36	4
4	4	Houston	-21.34	35	5
5	5	Alabama	-19.67	28	9
6	6	Tennessee	-18.77	30	8
7	7	Michigan State	-17.73	30	7
8	12	Gonzaga	-16.88	26	9
9	9	Iowa State	-16.86	25	10
10	8	St. John's	-16.84	31	5
11	11	Maryland	-16.83	27	9
12	10	Texas Tech	-16.7	28	9
13	14	Arizona	-16.18	24	13
14	13	Wisconsin	-16.08	27	10
15	16	Purdue	-15.81	24	12
16	15	Kentucky	-15.49	24	12
17	20	Illinois	-14.59	22	13
18	23	Michigan	-14.45	27	10
19	17	Clemson	-14.44	27	7
20	19	Kansas	-14.2	21	13
21	26	Ole Miss	-14.09	24	12
22	21	Texas A&M	-14.06	23	11
23	18	Louisville	-13.86	27	8
24	28	UCLA	-13.67	23	11
25	22	Marquette	-13.59	23	11
26	24	Missouri	-13.52	22	12
27	32	Oregon	-13.44	25	10
28	25	BYU	-13.41	26	10
29	27	Saint Mary's	-12.84	29	6
30	29	Mississippi St	-12.75	21	13
31	30	Baylor	-12.63	20	15
32	33	North Carolina	-12.62	23	14
33	34	UConn	-12.5	24	11
34	31	VCU	-12.17	28	7
35	35	Ohio State	-12.09	17	15
36	36	Creighton	-12.02	25	11
37	39	New Mexico	-11.62	27	8
38	41	Arkansas	-11.61	22	14
39	37	UC San Diego	-11.32	30	5
40	38	Georgia	-11.07	20	13
41	40	Xavier	-10.89	22	12
42	54	Nebraska	-10.54	21	14
43	43	Oklahoma	-10.45	20	14
44	45	Indiana	-10.38	19	13
45	46	Colorado State	-10.24	26	10
46	42	SMU	-10.19	24	11
47	44	Memphis	-10.06	29	6
48	47	West Virginia	-9.784	19	13
49	50	Northwestern	-9.741	17	16
50	52	Boise State	-9.671	26	11
51	49	Cincinnati	-9.637	19	16
52	48	Texas	-9.568	19	16
53	51	Vanderbilt	-9.493	20	13
54	56	Penn State	-9.338	16	15
55	57	McNeese	-9.136	28	7
56	61	Villanova	-8.842	21	15
57	59	Pittsburgh	-8.827	17	15
58	53	San Diego State	-8.791	21	10
59	55	Utah State	-8.68	26	8
60	60	Yale	-8.672	22	8
61	62	Santa Clara	-8.579	21	13
62	65	USC	-8.525	17	18
63	63	Drake	-8.505	31	4
64	58	UC Irvine	-8.338	32	7
65	66	Iowa	-7.855	17	16
66	64	Liberty	-7.402	28	7
67	67	Kansas State	-7.15	16	17
68	69	Wake Forest	-6.901	21	11
69	73	Rutgers	-6.865	15	17
70	79	Arkansas State	-6.78	25	11
71	71	High Point	-6.716	29	6
72	78	UCF	-6.708	20	17
73	68	San Francisco	-6.693	25	10
74	74	Utah	-6.471	16	17
75	77	South Carolina	-6.382	12	20
76	70	Lipscomb	-6.304	25	10
77	76	Dayton	-6.17	23	11
78	75	George Mason	-6.132	27	9
79	72	Saint Joseph's	-6.112	22	13
80	83	North Texas	-6.102	27	9
81	80	Arizona State	-6.038	13	20
82	81	Butler	-5.984	15	20
83	82	Nevada	-5.902	17	16
84	84	Stanford	-5.672	21	14
85	86	TCU	-5.575	16	16
86	85	Florida State	-5.543	17	15
87	87	Oregon State	-5.536	20	13
88	92	Bradley	-5.488	28	9
89	98	Chattanooga	-5.377	29	9
90	88	Georgetown	-5.225	18	16
91	90	Akron	-4.967	28	7
92	93	Troy	-4.953	23	11
93	95	LSU	-4.901	14	18
94	89	Grand Canyon	-4.8	26	8
95	97	Minnesota	-4.784	15	17
96	91	Colorado	-4.766	14	21
97	94	Samford	-4.701	22	11
98	96	UNC Wilmington	-4.477	27	8
99	111	UAB	-4.402	24	13
100	100	Northern Iowa	-4.368	20	13
101	102	Providence	-4.115	12	20
102	103	Notre Dame	-4.092	15	18
103	106	Wofford	-4.022	19	16
104	99	North Alabama	-4.017	24	11
105	105	Utah Valley	-3.979	25	9
106	107	UNLV	-3.855	18	15
107	108	Cornell	-3.809	18	11
108	104	CSU Northridge	-3.596	22	11
109	116	Oklahoma St	-3.573	17	18
110	110	Bryant	-3.279	23	12
111	112	North Colorado	-3.251	25	10
112	118	Loyola-Chicago	-3.247	25	12
113	101	St. Bonaventure	-3.196	22	12
114	130	Jacksonville St	-3.079	23	13
115	117	St. Thomas	-3.047	24	10
116	113	Mid Tennessee	-3.035	22	12
117	109	Georgia Tech	-3.028	17	17
118	135	Kent State	-3.008	24	12
119	122	South Alabama	-2.995	21	11
120	115	Florida Atlantic	-2.957	18	16
121	120	Virginia	-2.899	15	17
122	121	Furman	-2.899	25	10
123	123	Milwaukee	-2.879	21	11
124	124	Washington St	-2.705	19	15
125	125	California	-2.625	14	19
126	114	Saint Louis	-2.617	19	15
127	126	UNC Greensboro	-2.548	20	12
128	127	NC State	-2.491	12	19
129	128	Louisiana Tech	-2.462	20	12
130	141	Illinois State	-2.372	22	14
131	137	Robert Morris	-2.337	26	9
132	119	George Washington	-2.324	21	13
133	133	Fort Wayne	-2.277	19	13
134	138	Washington	-2.276	13	18
135	131	East Tennessee St	-2.27	19	13
136	132	Syracuse	-2.158	14	19
137	129	DePaul	-2.091	14	20
138	139	Miami (OH)	-2.036	25	9
139	140	Belmont	-1.996	22	11
140	136	South Dakota St	-1.97	20	12
141	134	Norfolk State	-1.936	24	11
142	142	Charleston	-1.698	24	9
143	143	North Dakota St	-1.609	21	11
144	152	Murray State	-1.523	16	17
145	145	Towson	-1.517	22	11
146	146	South Carolina St	-1.489	20	13
147	147	Central Conn	-1.474	25	7
148	154	Texas A&M-CC	-1.458	20	14
149	148	Radford	-1.451	20	13
150	149	New Mexico St	-1.445	17	15
151	159	Cleveland State	-1.366	23	13
152	151	Kennesaw St	-1.344	19	14
153	150	Seattle	-1.291	14	18
154	144	Duquesne	-1.264	13	19
155	153	Wichita State	-1.189	19	15
156	155	Winthrop	-1.165	23	11
157	164	Nicholls	-0.843	20	13
158	158	Montana	-0.791	25	10
159	165	James Madison	-0.692	20	12
160	156	Tulane	-0.686	19	15
161	167	UIC	-0.639	17	14
162	160	Davidson	-0.598	17	16
163	166	SE Missouri St	-0.588	21	12
164	162	UC Santa Barbara	-0.486	21	13
165	170	Lamar	-0.474	20	13
166	161	Omaha	-0.456	22	13
167	163	Rhode Island	-0.429	18	13
168	157	UC Riverside	-0.394	21	13
169	172	Marshall	-0.38	20	13
170	171	Merrimack	-0.258	18	15
171	177	Appalachian St	-0.223	17	14
172	168	Eastern Kentucky	-0.181	18	14
173	174	UNC Asheville	-0.157	21	11
174	173	Drexel	-0.151	18	15
175	176	UTEP	-0.104	18	15
176	179	West Kentucky	-0.075	17	15
177	175	Cal Baptist	-0.051	17	15
178	181	Montana State	0.042	15	18
179	180	Maine	0.063	20	14
180	186	Ohio	0.107	16	16
181	169	Florida Gulf Coast	0.179	19	15
182	188	Youngstown St	0.203	21	13
183	183	Quinnipiac	0.226	20	13
184	184	Princeton	0.231	19	11
185	178	Elon	0.268	17	16
186	185	Virginia Tech	0.28	13	19
187	187	Temple	0.361	17	15
188	194	SE Louisiana	0.373	18	14
189	195	Oakland	0.398	16	18
190	193	Southern	0.421	20	12
191	189	SIU-Edwardsville	0.485	22	12
192	191	Loyola Marymount	0.504	17	15
193	192	San Jose State	0.651	15	20
194	182	Jacksonville	0.79	19	14
195	200	Central Michigan	0.794	14	17
196	197	Sam Houston St	0.799	13	19
197	196	Dartmouth	0.805	14	14
198	190	Queens	0.873	20	15
199	198	Portland State	0.89	19	13
200	201	Northeastern	1.006	17	15
201	203	Texas State	1.072	16	16
202	205	Indiana State	1.088	14	18
203	202	East Carolina	1.089	19	14
204	199	Cal Poly	1.132	16	19
205	204	Brown	1.236	14	13
206	209	Little Rock	1.307	19	14
207	206	Longwood	1.339	18	14
208	207	Idaho State	1.371	15	15
209	208	Hofstra	1.381	15	18
210	211	Campbell	1.408	15	17
211	210	UMass Lowell	1.45	17	15
212	217	Southern Illinois	1.517	14	19
213	213	Bucknell	1.541	18	15
214	212	Wyoming	1.57	12	20
215	214	Jackson State	1.604	16	18
216	219	Wright State	1.617	15	18
217	218	Miami	1.718	7	24
218	215	William & Mary	1.727	17	15
219	216	Hampton	1.745	17	16
220	220	UT San Antonio	1.848	12	19
221	221	South Florida	1.925	13	19
222	225	Mt. St. Mary's	2.007	23	13
223	222	Vermont	2.04	21	12
224	241	Incarnate Word	2.043	19	17
225	227	Toledo	2.128	18	15
226	228	Valparaiso	2.144	15	19
227	223	Tennessee St	2.147	17	16
228	226	Rice	2.21	13	19
229	224	Presbyterian	2.329	14	19
230	229	Delaware	2.392	16	20
231	231	Abilene Christian	2.453	16	16
232	234	Boston College	2.534	12	19
233	237	North Kentucky	2.538	17	16
234	232	Manhattan	2.639	17	14
235	233	UMass	2.709	12	20
236	230	American	2.717	22	13
237	238	Seton Hall	2.73	7	25
238	239	Kansas City	2.798	13	20
239	236	North Arizona	2.834	18	16
240	235	La Salle	2.871	14	19
241	245	UT Rio Grande	2.913	16	15
242	240	Siena	2.917	14	18
243	243	Northwestern St	2.946	17	16
244	242	Sacred Heart	3.123	15	18
245	244	UT Arlington	3.168	13	18
246	250	Alabama State	3.245	20	16
247	247	Colgate	3.307	14	19
248	249	South Dakota	3.365	19	14
249	251	Mercer	3.398	14	19
250	246	North Florida	3.422	15	17
251	253	Pepperdine	3.523	13	22
252	254	Marist	3.583	20	10
253	252	Hawaii	3.609	15	16
254	255	Iona	3.625	17	17
255	248	Fordham	3.638	12	21
256	258	Monmouth	3.727	13	20
257	260	Gardner-Webb	3.845	11	20
258	259	UAlbany	3.851	17	16
259	256	CSU Bakersfield	3.856	14	19
260	257	UC Davis	3.909	15	17
261	263	Missouri State	3.968	9	23
262	266	Evansville	3.984	11	21
263	262	UT Martin	4.043	14	19
264	264	Texas Southern	4.152	15	17
265	268	Bethune-Cookman	4.182	17	16
266	261	Richmond	4.265	10	22
267	267	Navy	4.269	15	19
268	265	Harvard	4.276	12	15
269	270	Georgia Southern	4.43	17	16
270	269	Long Island	4.452	17	16
271	273	Lehigh	4.629	11	19
272	275	Georgia State	4.63	14	19
273	272	Saint Peter's	4.65	12	16
274	271	Austin Peay	4.659	14	19
275	274	VMI	4.689	15	19
276	276	Lafayette	4.801	13	20
277	277	Columbia	4.826	12	15
278	284	Stephen F Austin	4.896	14	17
279	278	Idaho	5	14	19
280	282	Ball State	5.012	14	17
281	280	North Dakota	5.043	12	21
282	281	St. Francis (PA)	5.068	16	18
283	285	Houston Christian	5.071	12	20
284	279	UMBC	5.105	13	19
285	283	Charlotte	5.175	11	22
286	286	Florida A&M	5.278	14	17
287	287	Florida Intl	5.325	10	23
288	290	Eastern Michigan	5.36	16	16
289	289	Fairleigh Dickinson	5.458	13	20
290	288	Delaware State	5.475	16	14
291	293	Bowling Green	5.53	14	17
292	292	Grambling	5.53	12	22
293	294	Boston U	5.657	16	16
294	296	Tulsa	5.67	13	20
295	291	Weber State	5.682	12	22
296	295	Tennessee Tech	5.735	15	17
297	297	N Carolina Cent	5.851	14	19
298	298	Eastern Illinois	5.953	12	19
299	300	West Michigan	6.013	12	20
300	299	Tarleton	6.069	12	20
301	305	IU Indianapolis	6.188	10	22
302	313	Army	6.209	17	16
303	302	Binghamton	6.215	15	17
304	303	Loyola (MD)	6.232	12	19
305	301	Penn	6.247	8	19
306	307	Lindenwood	6.377	16	17
307	304	Eastern Wash	6.377	10	22
308	306	Holy Cross	6.409	13	19
309	308	Niagara	6.461	11	20
310	310	Old Dominion	6.478	15	20
311	311	Rider	6.521	14	19
312	314	Morehead State	6.56	15	17
313	312	Stonehill	6.562	15	17
314	309	Fresno State	6.573	6	26
315	317	Portland	6.692	12	20
316	315	Southern Utah	6.72	12	19
317	316	Pacific	6.724	9	24
318	319	Southern Miss	6.987	11	22
319	318	Charleston South	7.099	10	22
320	320	Alcorn State	7.122	11	21
321	321	Utah Tech	7.326	7	26
322	322	Morgan State	7.531	14	18
323	324	Howard	7.609	12	20
324	325	Southern Indiana	7.649	10	20
325	326	Wagner	7.723	14	16
326	323	Long Beach St	7.764	7	25
327	329	Coastal Carolina	8.024	10	22
328	327	Mercyhurst	8.089	14	19
329	328	Denver	8.153	11	21
330	330	Stony Brook	8.28	8	24
331	331	Fairfield	8.436	12	20
332	332	Air Force	8.529	4	28
333	334	Louisiana	8.694	12	21
334	333	N Carolina A&T	8.86	7	25
335	335	Oral Roberts	8.934	7	23
336	336	Western Illinois	8.941	12	19
337	338	East Texas A&M	9.201	5	26
338	337	San Diego	9.205	6	27
339	339	Detroit Mercy	9.306	8	24
340	342	West Carolina	9.681	8	22
341	340	Sacramento St	9.741	7	25
342	341	Central Arkansas	9.856	9	24
343	343	Bellarmine	10.2	5	26
344	347	Green Bay	10.36	4	28
345	346	North Illinois	10.39	6	25
346	344	S Carolina Upstate	10.45	6	26
347	348	Le Moyne	10.6	9	23
348	345	West Georgia	10.7	6	25
349	350	New Orleans	10.71	4	27
350	349	Maryland-E Shore	10.8	6	25
351	351	Buffalo	10.89	9	23
352	353	UL Monroe	10.93	7	25
353	352	NJIT	10.98	6	25
354	355	Alabama A&M	11.1	10	22
355	354	Stetson	11.25	8	24
356	356	Prairie View A&M	11.26	5	27
357	357	The Citadel	11.65	5	25
358	359	New Hampshire	12.24	8	24
359	358	CSU Fullerton	12.39	6	26
360	360	Canisius	12.48	3	28
361	361	Chicago State	12.91	4	28
362	362	Coppin State	13.23	6	24
363	363	Ark-Pine Bluff	13.36	6	25
364	364	Miss Valley St	19.58	3	28