Thursday, June 2, 2022

NBA Finals Odds

It's finally down to the final 2 teams. Golden State's players have over 100 games of NBA Finals experience among them, and they are hosting the Boston Celtics tonight in Game 1, which features a roster without a single player who has ever played in the championship round. Boston is also looking to break their tie with the Lakers for most overall championships won, while Stephen Curry is looking for his 4th title, but first Finals MVP. Here are my odds and picks for the Finals:

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

(2) Celtics - 55.5%

(3) Warriors - 44.5%


My Pick

Celtics in 6

Saturday, May 21, 2022

NBA Playoff Odds - After CF Game 2

Golden State has taken a commanding 2-0 lead over Dallas in the Conference Finals, though we know from recent experience that a 2-0 lead is not enough. Miami and Boston are tied at 1-1, giving the Celtics home court advantage, but it's not quite enough to make them the overall favorite today. Here are each team's updated odds, with change since the start of the Conference Finals in parentheses:

Odds of Making NBA Finals

(3) Warriors - 87.8% (+24.9)

(2) Celtics - 63.8% (+4.1)

(1) Heat - 36.2% (-4.1)

(4) Mavericks - 12.2% (-24.9)

The ECF is now a 5-game series with Boston holding home court advantage, which accounts for the slight shift in the odds toward the Celtics. Golden State has a huge advantage, but with 3 of the next 4 potential games in Dallas, the series is not over yet.


Odds of Winning NBA Finals

(3) Warriors - 42.7% (+13.0)

(2) Celtics - 36.2% (+0.4)

(1) Heat - 17.0% (-4.1)

(4) Mavericks - 4.1% (-9.3)

Golden State is the favorite again, Boston stayed steady, Miami slipped a little, while Dallas is in trouble, but not out of it.

Tuesday, May 17, 2022

NBA Playoff Odds - Start of Conference Finals

There are only 4 teams left, and the team that was picked to win it all is gone, so now the team that I originally picked to lose in the Finals is the new favorite to take home the title. Here are each team's odds of reaching and winning the Finals, with change since Saturday in parentheses:

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

(3) Warriors - 62.9% (+13.6)

(2) Celtics - 59.7% (+22.3)

(1) Heat - 40.3% (-8.1)

(4) Mavericks - 37.1% (+25.0)

Miami is the only team who took a hit in this group, because they ended up with the tougher opponent for this upcoming round. Boston and Dallas both got huge boosts from winning Game 7, while Golden State got a boost because they now have unexpected home court in the Conference Finals.


Odds of Winning NBA Finals

(2) Celtics - 35.8% (+15.9)

(3) Warriors - 29.7% (+4.5)

(1) Heat - 21.1% (-1.0)

(4) Mavericks - 13.4% (+8.8)

Boston took over as the favorite to win the title, a position they have held a couple of times previously in this playoff run, and they are also now the best team in the league this season, surpassing the Suns, who had occupied the #1 spot for the past 5 months. Golden State and Miami also have a very good chance at winning it all, while Dallas is not a complete longshot.

Monday, May 16, 2022

NBA Playoff MVP Rankings - After Round 2

Of the 10 players who were on my list of potential MVP candidates after the first round, only 4 remain, with 6 losing in the conference semifinals, including the top 3 players from the first round. Giannis Antetokounmpo has still been the best player of the playoffs so far, but is left off this list since his team is out. Here are the 10 remaining players who have the best chance of winning the Finals MVP if they are able to win this year's championship, with previous ranking in parentheses:

Playoff MVP

1 (NR) Luka Doncic - PG - DAL

31.5 Pts (#2), 10.1 Reb (#8), 6.6 Ast (#6), 1.9 Stl (#3), 0.4 Blk, .474 FG%, .347 3P%, .769 FT%


2 (5) Jimmy Butler - SF - MIA

28.7 Pts (#4), 7.6 Reb, 5.4 Ast, 2.1 Stl (#1), 0.6 Blk, .525 FG%, .364 3P%, .808 FT%


3 (4) Stephen Curry - PG - GSW

26.9 Pts (#8), 4.2 Reb, 5.6 Ast, 1.1 Stl, 0.5 Blk, .451 FG%, .359 3P%, .816 FT%


4 (6) Jayson Tatum - SF - BOS

28.3 Pts (#5), 5.6 Reb, 6.1 Ast, 1.3 Stl (#9), 1.0 Blk (#10), .438 FG%, .386 3P%, .815 FT%


5 (NR) Draymond Green - PF - GSW

7.8 Pts, 7.2 Reb, 6.6 Ast (#7), 1.0 Stl, 1.2 Blk (#7), .523 FG%, .235 3P%, .667 FT%


6 (NR) Jordan Poole - SG - GSW

19.3 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 4.8 Ast, 0.7 Stl, 0.5 Blk, .500 FG%, .391 3P%, .881 FT%


7 (8) Jalen Brunson - PG - DAL

22.9 Pts, 4.6 Reb, 3.5 Ast, 1.0 Stl, 0.0 Blk, .467 FG%, .321 3P%, .846 FT%


8 (NR) Jaylen Brown - SF - BOS

22.2 Pts, 6.5 Reb, 3.8 Ast, 1.5 Stl (#7), 0.5 Blk, .484 FG%, .373 3P%, .768 FT%


9 (NR) Klay Thompson - SG - GSW

20.4 Pts, 4.5 Reb, 2.0 Ast, 1.2 Stl, 0.9 Blk, .450 FG%, .408 3P%, .769 FT%


10 (NR) Al Horford - C - BOS

13.0 Pts, 9.4 Reb (#10), 3.4 Ast, 1.1 Stl, 1.4 Blk (#5), .524 FG%, .451 3P%, .833 FT%


All-Time Player Rank Changes

Giannis Antetokounmpo has passed Kevin Johnson, Elvin Hayes, Dolph Schayes, Gary Payton, and Dan Issel to move up to #43.

Draymond Green has passed Alonzo Mourning, Terry Porter, Dikembe Mutombo, Louie Dampier, and Tracy McGrady to move up to #77.

Saturday, May 14, 2022

NBA Playoff Odds - After Round 2 Game 6

Two series have now come to an end, with the other two headed to game 7 tomorrow, leaving only 6 teams alive and vying for a championship. There is a new overall favorite as of this morning, though that will change tomorrow if either Boston or Phoenix wins. Here is the current chance of each remaining team advancing and winning the championship:

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

(1) Suns - 65.4% (-19.8)

(2) Celtics - 64.4% (+31.8)

(3) Bucks - 35.6% (-31.8)

(4) Mavericks - 34.6% (+19.8)

Boston is once again the favorite to advance in their series, with game 7 on their home court, and Phoenix has nearly the same odds after being forced to return home for a deciding game.


Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

(3) Warriors - 49.3% (+17.0)

(1) Heat - 48.4% (+5.4)

(1) Suns - 38.6% (-14.6)

(2) Celtics - 37.4% (+17.6)

(3) Bucks - 14.2% (-16.0)

(4) Mavericks - 12.1% (+7.0)

The odds didn't shift as much for Miami and Dallas as for the other 4 teams, but tomorrow's games will have a huge impact no matter who wins, since two of these teams will be saying goodbye.


Odds of Winning NBA Finals

(3) Warriors - 25.2% (+7.6)

(1) Suns - 23.2% (-11.8)

(1) Heat - 22.1% (+4.1)

(2) Celtics - 19.9% (+10.0)

(3) Bucks - 5.0% (-5.3)

(4) Mavericks - 4.6% (+2.5)

The two teams who have already advanced and the two teams who are playing at home tomorrow are all very close in the overall odds today, while the other two have to win a road Game 7, then start yet another series without home court advantage, making a tough path to the title.

Thursday, May 12, 2022

NBA Playoff Odds - After Round 2 Game 5

All 4 series now sit at 3-2, with the #1 and #3 seeds leading in each case, with Memphis, the only team who was facing elimination, coming through in a big way to extend their series for at least another game. Every game remaining in this round is an elimination game, so before too long, there will only be 4 teams left. Here are the updated odds for each remaining team, with change from Tuesday in parentheses:

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

(1) Suns - 85.2% (+18.0)

(1) Heat - 81.0% (+21.6)

(3) Warriors - 76.4% (-12.1)

(3) Bucks - 67.4% (+32.1)

(2) Celtics - 32.6% (-32.1)

(2) Grizzlies - 23.6% (+12.1)

(4) 76ers - 19.0% (-21.6)

(4) Mavericks - 14.8% (-18.0)

Milwaukee's clutch-time win over Boston last night gave the Bucks the chance to end the series on their home court, and caused a huge swing in the odds of moving on. Blowout wins by the other 3 teams all earned big jumps as well, though Memphis is still a major underdog.


Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

(1) Suns - 53.2% (+13.6)

(1) Heat - 43.0% (+15.8)

(3) Warriors - 32.3% (-11.9)

(3) Bucks - 30.2% (+13.2)

(2) Celtics - 19.8% (-22.4)

(2) Grizzlies - 9.4% (+4.4)

(4) 76ers - 7.0% (-6.6)

(4) Mavericks - 5.1% (-6.2)

The favorite to win each conference changed again after this set of games, with the #1 seeds now the favorites to meet in the championship round. Boston, whose odds have been at or near the top of the East since the playoffs began, saw their odds plummet now that they are in a 3-2 hole against the defending champs.


Odds of Winning NBA Finals

(1) Suns - 35.0% (+10.4)

(1) Heat - 18.0% (+6.5)

(3) Warriors - 17.6% (-6.8)

(3) Bucks - 10.3% (+4.3)

(2) Celtics - 9.9% (-12.2)

(2) Grizzlies - 5.1% (+2.6)

(4) Mavericks - 2.1% (-2.5)

(4) 76ers - 2.0% (-2.3)

With Phoenix's top 2 competitors taking losses yesterday, the Suns suddenly became huge favorites again, with Miami moving up to the #2 spot. Boston is still in the running, but they must win their next 2 just to stay alive.

Tuesday, May 10, 2022

NBA Playoff Odds - After Round 2 Game 4

There are now 3 series tied at 2-2, with Boston taking back home court advantage by winning in Milwaukee, while Golden State moved right to the edge of advancing after beating Memphis again at home, putting the Grizzlies in a 3-1 hole. Here are each team's updated odds, with change from Sunday in parentheses:

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

(3) Warriors - 88.5% (+15.3)

(1) Suns - 67.2% (-15.6)

(2) Celtics - 64.7% (+21.8)

(1) Heat - 59.4% (-16.5)

(4) 76ers - 40.6% (+16.5)

(3) Bucks - 35.3% (-21.8)

(4) Mavericks - 32.8% (+15.6)

(2) Grizzlies - 11.5% (-15.3)

Every winner saw a huge increase in their odds this time, since lower seeds won 3 of the games, and Boston took back home court with their win.


Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

(3) Warriors - 44.2% (+10.9)

(2) Celtics - 42.2% (+15.5)

(1) Suns - 39.6% (-10.7)

(1) Heat - 27.2% (-10.8)

(3) Bucks - 17.0% (-9.5)

(4) 76ers - 13.6% (+4.8)

(4) Mavericks - 11.3% (+5.4)

(2) Grizzlies - 5.0% (-5.5)

There are new favorites to reach the Finals from each conference after yesterday's games, though the #1 seeds are still very much in the running.


Odds of Winning NBA Finals

(1) Suns - 24.6% (-8.0)

(3) Warriors - 24.4% (+5.6)

(2) Celtics - 22.1% (+8.7)

(1) Heat - 11.5% (-4.1)

(3) Bucks - 6.0% (-3.2)

(4) Mavericks - 4.6% (+2.2)

(4) 76ers - 4.3% (+1.7)

(2) Grizzlies - 2.5% (-2.9)

Phoenix still has the best odds of winning it all, but they have dropped significantly over the past 4 days, and are now in a dead heat with Golden State and Boston, both of which are rising.