NBA Rankings - 21 Mar

The hottest team in the NBA over the past month has been the LA Lakers, who have won 8 in a row and 11 of their past 12, and have gone from a projected spot in the play-in to a #3 finish in the West. Charlotte also continues to rise, moving into my top 10 for the first time ever, while the Golden State Warriors are headed in the opposite direction, losing 9 of 11 since my last update, and 18 of their past 26 overall, though their play-in spot is safe, since no other team below them in the West is trying to win. Here are my full current rankings and playoff picks:

				Record		Proj
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	Seed
1	1	Oklahoma City	-9.475	55	15	64	18	W1
2	3	San Antonio	-6.751	52	18	61	21	W2
3	2	Detroit	-6.023	51	19	59	23	E1
4	4	Boston	-5.963	47	23	55	27	E2
5	6	New York	-4.973	46	25	53	29	E3
6	5	Houston	-3.719	42	27	51	31	W4
7	7	Cleveland	-3.702	43	27	51	31	E4
8	8	Denver	-3.617	43	28	50	32	W5
9	9	Minnesota	-2.741	43	28	49	33	W6
10	13	Charlotte	-2.552	36	34	43	39	E10
11	10	Miami	-2.373	38	32	45	37	E7
12	12	Toronto	-1.725	39	30	46	36	E5
13	14	Phoenix	-1.555	39	31	46	36	W7
14	17	LA Lakers	-1.548	45	25	52	30	W3
15	19	Atlanta	-0.836	38	32	44	38	E9
16	16	Orlando	-0.716	38	31	45	37	E6
17	11	Golden State	-0.706	33	37	40	42	W10
18	18	LA Clippers	-0.457	34	36	41	41	W9
19	15	Philadelphia	-0.052	38	32	44	38	E8
20	20	Portland	0.7428	35	36	41	41	W8
21	21	Memphis	3.0687	24	45	28	54
22	25	New Orleans	3.4013	25	46	29	53
23	24	Chicago	3.7197	28	42	33	49
24	22	Milwaukee	4.4309	28	41	32	50
25	23	Dallas	4.7682	23	47	27	55
26	26	Utah	6.2764	21	49	24	58
27	27	Brooklyn	7.0977	17	53	21	61
28	29	Sacramento	8.2465	18	53	21	61
29	28	Indiana	8.2896	15	55	17	65
30	30	Washington	9.7521	16	53	18	64

Playoff Picks

Play-In

(7) Heat over (8) 76ers

(10) Hornets over (9) Hawks

(10) Hornets over (8) 76ers

(7) Suns over (8) Trail Blazers

(9) Clippers over (10) Warriors

(8) Trail Blazers over (9) Clippers

First Round

(1) Pistons over (10) Hornets in 6

(2) Celtics over (7) Heat in 6

(3) Knicks over (6) Magic in 6

(4) Cavaliers over (5) Raptors in 6

(1) Thunder over (8) Trail Blazers in 4

(2) Spurs over (7) Suns in 6

(3) Lakers over (6) Timberwolves in 7

(4) Rockets over (5) Nuggets in 7

Second Round

(1) Pistons over (4) Cavaliers in 6

(2) Celtics over (3) Knicks in 6

(1) Thunder over (4) Rockets in 5

(2) Spurs over (3) Lakers in 6

Conference Finals

(1) Pistons over (2) Celtics in 7

(1) Thunder over (2) Spurs in 6

NBA Finals

(1) Thunder over (1) Pistons in 6

NCAA Tournament Odds - 2026

6195 games down, 67 to go until a new national champion is crowned. I've computed each team's odds of advancing through the tournament based on the results of all of those games to determine which teams are most likely to advance, and which are most likely to win it all. Here is my breakdown of the next few weeks:

Best Teams Left Out

36. Auburn

42. Indiana

43. Cincinnati

46. Oklahoma

Just like last year, there are only 4 teams in my final regular season rankings that are ranked above the bottom 4 at-large teams to make the tournament. 3 of these teams were named by the committee as being among their first four teams left out.

Worst At-Large Teams Selected

47. TCU

52. Missouri

57. UCF

69. Miami (OH)

Miami (OH) is the lowest-ranked at-large team I have ever seen, but the committee didn't feel that they could ignore a 31-0 regular season, even if it was against one of the weakest schedules in the country. Last season, the 4 teams that made this list lost in their very first game, so it's probably not smart to pick these teams.

Teams That are Better than their Seed

1. Vanderbilt

2. Iowa

3. NC State

4. SMU

These are the only 4 teams that are seeded at least 2 spots lower than their ranking would suggest this season, by far the lowest in my time posting about the tournament. These teams will generally do better than expected in the tournament, but last season's 6 teams won a total of 1 game among them, without any upsets.

Teams That are Worse than their Seed

1. Kansas

2. Miami

3. Clemson

4. TCU

5. UCF

These teams are seeded at least 2 spots higher than their ranking shows. Of last season's 5 teams on this list, none survived the first weekend, and 2 were upset by lower seeds.

Projected First Round Upsets

7.6

This number has dropped for the third straight season. Last season's projection was 8.7, with a range of 7-10, and there ended up being 7, on the low end of the range. This season's range is more likely to be between 6 and 9.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

(9) Iowa over (8) Clemson - 54.8%

(9) Utah State over (8) Villanova - 50.6%

(9) Saint Louis over (8) Georgia - 50.3%

(10) Santa Clara over (7) Kentucky - 45.8%

(10) Texas A&M over (7) Saint Mary's - 43.2%

(11) VCU over (6) North Carolina - 42.9%

(11) Texas/NC State over (6) BYU - 41.4%

(10) Missouri over (7) Miami - 41.07%

(9) TCU over (8) Ohio State - 41.06%

Of the 8 teams on last season's most likely upset list, 4 of them happened, so look here first to find your early upsets.

Most Likely #15 or #16 to Win a Game

(15) Furman over (2) UConn - 6.1%

(15) Tennessee State over (2) Iowa State - 4.0%

(15) Idaho over (2) Houston - 3.9%

(15) Queens over (2) Purdue - 2.9%

It is extremely unlikely that any of the top 8 teams will lose before the weekend, but each of the #15 has at least a small chance of winning a game.

Most Likely Cinderellas

(11) Texas/NC State - 14.7%

(10) Santa Clara - 13.8%

(11) VCU - 13.2%

(11) Miami (OH)/SMU - 12.8%

(11) South Florida - 12.7%

(12) Akron - 12.6%

(10) Texas A&M - 12.3%

(10) UCF - 11.4%

(10) Missouri - 10.1%

Last season only saw 1 double-digit seed reach the Sweet 16 (Arkansas), and they were right in the middle of my list, and the same thing happened the year before with NC State.

Projected Number of Cinderellas

1.7

Last year's number was 2.5, with only 1, the aforementioned Arkansas, actually making it, so it's unlikely that we will see more than 2 this year.

#1 Seeds in the Final Four

1.5

This is the same projection as last season, when all 4 #1 seeds made the Final Four for the first time ever. That is very unlikely to happen again, so expect one or two of them to still be standing in April.

Odds of a #1 Seed Winning the Tournament

54.1%

This is almost exactly the same as last season's 54.6% chance, which resulted in a win by Florida, who was a #1 seed. It's far from a guarantee, but there's still a very good chance of it.

Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams

(1) Duke - 80.5%

(1) Michigan - 79.8%

(1) Arizona - 78.6%

(1) Florida - 74.1%

(2) Purdue - 69.9%

(2) Houston - 67.02%

(2) Iowa State - 66.96%

(3) Illinois - 63.9%

(2) UConn - 63.5%

(3) Gonzaga - 58.7%

(4) Arkansas - 53.4%

(3) Michigan State - 53.0%

(3) Virginia - 49.3%

(5) St. John's - 45.93%

(4) Nebraska - 45.85%

(4) Alabama - 42.83%

(5) Vanderbilt - 42.76%

(4) Kansas - 40.9%

(5) Texas Tech - 37.2%

(6) Tennessee - 35.3%

(5) Wisconsin - 34.6%

(6) Louisville - 31.8%

12 of the top 16 teams on this list last year reached the Sweet Sixteen, and another was on the backup list at the bottom, so make sure to fill in most of your bracket with these teams.

Most Likely Final Four Teams

(1) Michigan - 41.9%

(1) Duke - 40.8%

(1) Arizona - 39.0%

(1) Florida - 29.1%

(2) Houston - 20.8%

(2) Purdue - 20.1%

(2) Iowa State - 19.8%

(3) Illinois - 18.4%

(2) UConn - 15.0%

(3) Gonzaga - 13.8%

(3) Michigan State- 13.2%

The #1 seeds each had at least a 30% chance of reaching the Final Four last season, the top 4 in the odds as well, and they all made it. This season all of the 1 through 3 seeds have at least a 10% chance of making it, with the exception of Virginia.

Most Likely Champions

(1) Michigan - 16.6%

(1) Duke - 15.0%

(1) Arizona - 14.0%

(1) Florida - 8.6%

(2) Houston - 5.1%

(2) Iowa State - 5.0%

(2) Purdue - 4.8%

(3) Illinois - 4.3%

(2) UConn - 2.9%

(3) Gonzaga - 2.8%

(3) Michigan State - 2.7%

Florida, who won the title last season, was #3 on this list, with 13.8% odds, and runner-up Houston was at #4. The eventual champion has appeared among the top 7 on this list for eleven straight years, so it's probably not smart to look beyond this for your champ.

Most Common Nicknames

Panthers - 3

Wildcats - 3

Tigers - 3

Aggies - 2

Cougars - 2

Bison - 2

Bulldogs - 2

Hawks (Mountain/Red) - 2

Raiders/Red - 2

There's a lot more variety in nicknames this year, after 6 different teams of Bulldogs reached the tournament last year, along with 4 Tigers.

Teams by State

Texas - 7

North Carolina - 5

California - 4

Florida - 4

New York - 4

Ohio - 4

Iowa - 3

Pennsylvania - 3

Tennessee - 3

Alabama - 2

Georgia - 2

Kentucky - 2

Michigan - 2

Missouri - 2

South Carolina - 2

Utah - 2

Virginia - 2

Arizona - 1

Arkansas - 1

Connecticut - 1

District of Columbia - 1

Hawaii - 1

Idaho - 1

Illinois - 1

Indiana - 1

Kansas - 1

Louisiana - 1

Maryland - 1

Nebraska - 1

North Dakota - 1

Washington - 1

Wisconsin - 1

As always, Texas leads the way, with a very strong showing from North Carolina as well.

My Picks

First Round Winners

(1) Duke

(8) Ohio State

(5) St. John's

(4) Kansas

(11) South Florida

(3) Michigan State

(7) UCLA

(2) UConn

(1) Florida

(9) Iowa

(5) Vanderbilt

(4) Nebraska

(11) VCU

(3) Illinois

(10) Texas A&M

(2) Houston

(1) Arizona

(8) Villanova

(5) Wisconsin

(4) Arkansas

(6) BYU

(3) Gonzaga

(7) Miami

(2) Purdue

(1) Michigan

(8) Georgia

(5) Texas Tech

(4) Alabama

(6) Tennessee

(3) Virginia

(10) Santa Clara

(2) Iowa State

Only 5 first round upset picks this year, mostly in the South Region.

Sweet 16

(1) Duke

(5) St. John's

(3) Michigan State

(7) UCLA

(1) Florida

(5) Vanderbilt

(3) Illinois

(2) Houston

(1) Arizona

(5) Wisconsin

(6) BYU

(2) Purdue

(1) Michigan

(4) Alabama

(6) Tennessee

(2) Iowa State

I've got 6 upsets picked in this round, and I'm especially liking the 5-seeds, with UCLA the closest thing to a Cinderella in sight.

Elite Eight

(1) Duke

(7) UCLA

(5) Vanderbilt

(2) Houston

(1) Arizona

(2) Purdue

(1) Michigan

(2) Iowa State

The first #1 seed goes down, and UCLA continues their unexpected run.

Final Four

(1) Duke

(2) Houston

(2) Purdue

(2) Iowa State

#1 overall seed Duke is the only #1 I am picking to reach the Final Four.

Championship

(2) Houston

(2) Iowa State

Two teams from the Big 12 face off for the title

Champion

(2) Iowa State

The Cyclones win their first-ever title, and Houston repeats as runners-up, just as they did during the early 80's with Hakeem Olajuwon.

NCAA Bracket Prediction - Final

The official bracket reveal is less than an hour away, and now that the final games are coming to a close, here is my official final prediction of how today's bracket will look. Duke will be the #1 overall seed, the final four teams to make the field will be Missouri, Miami (OH), SMU, and San Diego State, with the first four out being New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, and Stanford.

	SOUTH			MIDWEST
1	Duke		1	Michigan
16	Prairie View/Lehigh		16	Long Island/Howard
8	Georgia		8	Kentucky
9	Ohio State		9	Saint Louis
5	Wisconsin		5	Texas Tech
12	Northern Iowa		12	Penn
4	Alabama		4	Vanderbilt
13	High Point		13	Cal Baptist
6	North Carolina		6	Tennessee
11	VCU		11	SMU/San Diego State
3	Nebraska		3	Virginia
14	Tennessee State		14	Wright State
7	Saint Mary’s		7	Utah State
10	NC State		10	UCF
2	Iowa State		2	UConn
15	Furman		15	Siena
	EAST			WEST
1	Florida		1	Arizona
16	Queens		16	UMBC
8	UCLA		8	Villanova
9	TCU		9	Iowa
5	Kansas		5	Arkansas
12	Akron		12	McNeese
4	Illinois		4	St. John’s
13	Hawaii		13	Hofstra
6	Louisville		6	BYU
11	South Florida		11	Missouri/Miami (OH)
3	Michigan State		3	Gonzaga
14	North Dakota State		14	Troy
7	Clemson		7	Miami
10	Santa Clara		10	Texas A&M
2	Houston		2	Purdue
15	Kennesaw State		15	Idaho