The NBA Playoffs are starting this morning, now that the play-in tournament has ended, and the Oklahoma City Thunder are the biggest favorite I have seen in my time of predicting the playoffs. The top 2 seeds in the East have a chance as well, but it's pretty unlikely that the ultimate champion will come from any of the other 13 teams. One quick note: the Lakers odds throughout this post are probably lower than they should be. The team has had limited time together as presently constituted, and that means that much of their data consists of the first two-thirds of the season, in which they were playing at a play-in level, at best. Here are each team's odds throughout the playoffs, along with my picks for the results of each series:
Odds of Winning First Round
(1) Cavaliers - 95.0%
(1) Thunder - 94.2%
(2) Celtics - 94.1%
(6) Timberwolves - 71.9%
(3) Knicks - 66.1%
(2) Rockets - 60.5%
(4) Nuggets - 56.5%
(5) Bucks - 55.2%
(4) Pacers - 44.8%
(5) Clippers - 43.5%
(7) Warriors - 39.5%
(6) Pistons - 33.9%
(3) Lakers - 28.1%
(7) Magic - 5.9%
(8) Grizzlies - 5.8%
(8) Heat - 5.0%
Odds of Reaching Conference Finals
(1) Thunder - 88.7%
(1) Cavaliers - 85.2%
(2) Celtics - 78.4%
(6) Timberwolves - 40.6%
(2) Rockets - 33.3%
(7) Warriors - 17.0%
(3) Knicks - 15.2%
(3) Lakers - 9.1%
(5) Bucks - 8.0%
(4) Pacers - 5.0%
(6) Pistons - 4.8%
(4) Nuggets - 4.4%
(5) Clippers - 4.1%
(8) Grizzlies - 2.8%
(8) Heat - 1.7%
(7) Magic - 1.6%
Odds of Reaching NBA Finals
(1) Thunder - 82.8%
(1) Cavaliers - 54.8%
(2) Celtics - 38.1%
(6) Timberwolves - 5.5%
(2) Rockets - 4.1%
(3) Knicks - 3.4%
(5) Clippers - 2.11%
(4) Nuggets - 2.05%
(5) Bucks - 1.8%
(7) Warriors - 1.5%
(8) Grizzlies - 1.3%
(4) Pacers - 0.9%
(6) Pistons - 0.6%
(3) Lakers - 0.5%
(8) Heat - 0.2%
(7) Magic - 0.1%
Odds of Winning Championship
(1) Thunder - 65.8%
(1) Cavaliers - 18.3%
(2) Celtics - 10.9%
(6) Timberwolves - 1.6%
(2) Rockets - 1.1%
(5) Clippers - 0.54%
(4) Nuggets - 0.45%
(3) Knicks - 0.4%
(8) Grizzlies - 0.31%
(7) Warriors - 0.30%
(5) Bucks - 0.2%
(4) Pacers - 0.069%
(3) Lakers - 0.065%
(6) Pistons - 0.04%
(8) Heat - 0.009%
(7) Magic - 0.005%
My Picks
First Round
(1) Cavaliers over (8) Heat in 6
(2) Celtics over (7) Magic in 7
(3) Knicks over (6) Pistons in 4
(5) Bucks over (4) Pacers in 7
(1) Thunder over (8) Grizzlies in 6
(7) Warriors over (2) Rockets in 6
(6) Timberwolves over (3) Lakers in 7
(5) Clippers over (4) Nuggets in 6
Second Round
(1) Cavaliers over (5) Bucks in 7
(2) Celtics over (3) Knicks in 7
(1) Thunder over (5) Clippers in 7
(6) Timberwolves over (7) Warriors in 6
Conference Finals
(1) Cavaliers over (2) Celtics in 7
(1) Thunder over (6) Timberwolves in 7
NBA Finals
(1) Thunder over (1) Cavaliers in 5