6195 games down, 67 to go until a new national champion is crowned. I've computed each team's odds of advancing through the tournament based on the results of all of those games to determine which teams are most likely to advance, and which are most likely to win it all. Here is my breakdown of the next few weeks:
Best Teams Left Out
36. Auburn
42. Indiana
43. Cincinnati
46. Oklahoma
Just like last year, there are only 4 teams in my final regular season rankings that are ranked above the bottom 4 at-large teams to make the tournament. 3 of these teams were named by the committee as being among their first four teams left out.
Worst At-Large Teams Selected
47. TCU
52. Missouri
57. UCF
69. Miami (OH)
Miami (OH) is the lowest-ranked at-large team I have ever seen, but the committee didn't feel that they could ignore a 31-0 regular season, even if it was against one of the weakest schedules in the country. Last season, the 4 teams that made this list lost in their very first game, so it's probably not smart to pick these teams.
Teams That are Better than their Seed
1. Vanderbilt
2. Iowa
3. NC State
4. SMU
These are the only 4 teams that are seeded at least 2 spots lower than their ranking would suggest this season, by far the lowest in my time posting about the tournament. These teams will generally do better than expected in the tournament, but last season's 6 teams won a total of 1 game among them, without any upsets.
Teams That are Worse than their Seed
1. Kansas
2. Miami
3. Clemson
4. TCU
5. UCF
These teams are seeded at least 2 spots higher than their ranking shows. Of last season's 5 teams on this list, none survived the first weekend, and 2 were upset by lower seeds.
Projected First Round Upsets
7.6
This number has dropped for the third straight season. Last season's projection was 8.7, with a range of 7-10, and there ended up being 7, on the low end of the range. This season's range is more likely to be between 6 and 9.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
(9) Iowa over (8) Clemson - 54.8%
(9) Utah State over (8) Villanova - 50.6%
(9) Saint Louis over (8) Georgia - 50.3%
(10) Santa Clara over (7) Kentucky - 45.8%
(10) Texas A&M over (7) Saint Mary's - 43.2%
(11) VCU over (6) North Carolina - 42.9%
(11) Texas/NC State over (6) BYU - 41.4%
(10) Missouri over (7) Miami - 41.07%
(9) TCU over (8) Ohio State - 41.06%
Of the 8 teams on last season's most likely upset list, 4 of them happened, so look here first to find your early upsets.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to Win a Game
(15) Furman over (2) UConn - 6.1%
(15) Tennessee State over (2) Iowa State - 4.0%
(15) Idaho over (2) Houston - 3.9%
(15) Queens over (2) Purdue - 2.9%
It is extremely unlikely that any of the top 8 teams will lose before the weekend, but each of the #15 has at least a small chance of winning a game.
Most Likely Cinderellas
(11) Texas/NC State - 14.7%
(10) Santa Clara - 13.8%
(11) VCU - 13.2%
(11) Miami (OH)/SMU - 12.8%
(11) South Florida - 12.7%
(12) Akron - 12.6%
(10) Texas A&M - 12.3%
(10) UCF - 11.4%
(10) Missouri - 10.1%
Last season only saw 1 double-digit seed reach the Sweet 16 (Arkansas), and they were right in the middle of my list, and the same thing happened the year before with NC State.
Projected Number of Cinderellas
1.7
Last year's number was 2.5, with only 1, the aforementioned Arkansas, actually making it, so it's unlikely that we will see more than 2 this year.
#1 Seeds in the Final Four
1.5
This is the same projection as last season, when all 4 #1 seeds made the Final Four for the first time ever. That is very unlikely to happen again, so expect one or two of them to still be standing in April.
Odds of a #1 Seed Winning the Tournament
54.1%
This is almost exactly the same as last season's 54.6% chance, which resulted in a win by Florida, who was a #1 seed. It's far from a guarantee, but there's still a very good chance of it.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
(1) Duke - 80.5%
(1) Michigan - 79.8%
(1) Arizona - 78.6%
(1) Florida - 74.1%
(2) Purdue - 69.9%
(2) Houston - 67.02%
(2) Iowa State - 66.96%
(3) Illinois - 63.9%
(2) UConn - 63.5%
(3) Gonzaga - 58.7%
(4) Arkansas - 53.4%
(3) Michigan State - 53.0%
(3) Virginia - 49.3%
(5) St. John's - 45.93%
(4) Nebraska - 45.85%
(4) Alabama - 42.83%
(5) Vanderbilt - 42.76%
(4) Kansas - 40.9%
(5) Texas Tech - 37.2%
(6) Tennessee - 35.3%
(5) Wisconsin - 34.6%
(6) Louisville - 31.8%
12 of the top 16 teams on this list last year reached the Sweet Sixteen, and another was on the backup list at the bottom, so make sure to fill in most of your bracket with these teams.
Most Likely Final Four Teams
(1) Michigan - 41.9%
(1) Duke - 40.8%
(1) Arizona - 39.0%
(1) Florida - 29.1%
(2) Houston - 20.8%
(2) Purdue - 20.1%
(2) Iowa State - 19.8%
(3) Illinois - 18.4%
(2) UConn - 15.0%
(3) Gonzaga - 13.8%
(3) Michigan State- 13.2%
The #1 seeds each had at least a 30% chance of reaching the Final Four last season, the top 4 in the odds as well, and they all made it. This season all of the 1 through 3 seeds have at least a 10% chance of making it, with the exception of Virginia.
Most Likely Champions
(1) Michigan - 16.6%
(1) Duke - 15.0%
(1) Arizona - 14.0%
(1) Florida - 8.6%
(2) Houston - 5.1%
(2) Iowa State - 5.0%
(2) Purdue - 4.8%
(3) Illinois - 4.3%
(2) UConn - 2.9%
(3) Gonzaga - 2.8%
(3) Michigan State - 2.7%
Florida, who won the title last season, was #3 on this list, with 13.8% odds, and runner-up Houston was at #4. The eventual champion has appeared among the top 7 on this list for eleven straight years, so it's probably not smart to look beyond this for your champ.
Most Common Nicknames
Panthers - 3
Wildcats - 3
Tigers - 3
Aggies - 2
Cougars - 2
Bison - 2
Bulldogs - 2
Hawks (Mountain/Red) - 2
Raiders/Red - 2
There's a lot more variety in nicknames this year, after 6 different teams of Bulldogs reached the tournament last year, along with 4 Tigers.
Teams by State
Texas - 7
North Carolina - 5
California - 4
Florida - 4
New York - 4
Ohio - 4
Iowa - 3
Pennsylvania - 3
Tennessee - 3
Alabama - 2
Georgia - 2
Kentucky - 2
Michigan - 2
Missouri - 2
South Carolina - 2
Utah - 2
Virginia - 2
Arizona - 1
Arkansas - 1
Connecticut - 1
District of Columbia - 1
Hawaii - 1
Idaho - 1
Illinois - 1
Indiana - 1
Kansas - 1
Louisiana - 1
Maryland - 1
Nebraska - 1
North Dakota - 1
Washington - 1
Wisconsin - 1
As always, Texas leads the way, with a very strong showing from North Carolina as well.
My Picks
First Round Winners
(1) Duke
(8) Ohio State
(5) St. John's
(4) Kansas
(11) South Florida
(3) Michigan State
(7) UCLA
(2) UConn
(1) Florida
(9) Iowa
(5) Vanderbilt
(4) Nebraska
(11) VCU
(3) Illinois
(10) Texas A&M
(2) Houston
(1) Arizona
(8) Villanova
(5) Wisconsin
(4) Arkansas
(6) BYU
(3) Gonzaga
(7) Miami
(2) Purdue
(1) Michigan
(8) Georgia
(5) Texas Tech
(4) Alabama
(6) Tennessee
(3) Virginia
(10) Santa Clara
(2) Iowa State
Only 5 first round upset picks this year, mostly in the South Region.
Sweet 16
(1) Duke
(5) St. John's
(3) Michigan State
(7) UCLA
(1) Florida
(5) Vanderbilt
(3) Illinois
(2) Houston
(1) Arizona
(5) Wisconsin
(6) BYU
(2) Purdue
(1) Michigan
(4) Alabama
(6) Tennessee
(2) Iowa State
I've got 6 upsets picked in this round, and I'm especially liking the 5-seeds, with UCLA the closest thing to a Cinderella in sight.
Elite Eight
(1) Duke
(7) UCLA
(5) Vanderbilt
(2) Houston
(1) Arizona
(2) Purdue
(1) Michigan
(2) Iowa State
The first #1 seed goes down, and UCLA continues their unexpected run.
Final Four
(1) Duke
(2) Houston
(2) Purdue
(2) Iowa State
#1 overall seed Duke is the only #1 I am picking to reach the Final Four.
Championship
(2) Houston
(2) Iowa State
Two teams from the Big 12 face off for the title
Champion
(2) Iowa State
The Cyclones win their first-ever title, and Houston repeats as runners-up, just as they did during the early 80's with Hakeem Olajuwon.