Upset picks are in italics.
NIT
Xavier vs. Texas A&M - Aggies by 1
NBA
Philadelphia at Detroit - 76ers by 8
Milwaukee at Brooklyn - Bucks by 1.5
Cleveland at Atlanta - Hawks by 0.5
LA Clippers at Chicago - Bulls by 3.5
LA Lakers at Utah - Jazz by 9
Results
NBA: 8-3 (.727) 710-424 overall (.626)
Upsets: 0-2 (.000) 65-133 overall (.328)
Upset picks are in italics.
Dallas at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 0.5
Denver at Indiana - Nuggets by 3
Orlando at Washington - Wizards by 5
Miami at Boston - Celtics by 3
Charlotte at New York - Knicks by 0.5
Minnesota at Toronto - Raptors by 1
Sacramento at Houston - Kings by 1.5
Atlanta at Oklahoma City - Hawks by 5.5
Memphis at San Antonio - Grizzlies by 4
Phoenix at Golden State - Suns by 1.5
New Orleans at Portland - Pelicans by 3.5
Results
NIT: 1-1 (.500) 20-10 overall (.667)
Upsets: 1-1 (.500)
NBA: 3-2 (.600) 702-421 overall (.625)
Upsets: 65-131 overall (.332)
Upset picks are in italics.
NIT
St. Bonaventure vs. Xavier - Musketeers by 1.5
Washington State vs. Texas A&M - Cougars by 0.5
NBA
Milwaukee at Philadelphia - 76ers by 0.5
Chicago at Washington - Bulls by 2
Detroit at Brooklyn - Nets by 8.5
LA Lakers at Dallas - Mavericks by 7
Utah at LA Clippers - Jazz by 5
Results
TBC: 1-1 (.500) 13-3 overall (.813)
NBA: 6-3 (.667) 699-419 overall (.625)
Upsets: 1-3 (.250) 65-131 overall (.332)
Upset picks are in italics.
TBC
Coastal Carolina at South Alabama - Jaguars by 4
Southern Utah at Fresno State - Bulldogs by 9
NBA
Denver at Charlotte - Hornets by 0.5
Orlando at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 10
Atlanta at Indiana - Hawks by 2
Sacramento at Miami - Heat by 9.5
Chicago at New York - Knicks by 0.5
Boston at Toronto - Celtics by 2
San Antonio at Houston - Spurs by 5.5
Golden State at Memphis - Grizzlies by 1.5
Oklahoma City at Portland - Trail Blazers by 2
Results
NCAA: 2-0 (1.000) 42-22 overall (.656)
Upsets: 4-5 overall (.444)
NBA: 4-3 (.571) 693-416 overall (.625)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 64-128 overall (.333)
Upset picks are in italics.
NCAA
(10) Miami vs. (1) Kansas - Jayhawks by 7.5
(15) Saint Peter's vs. (8) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 7
NBA
New York at Detroit - Knicks by 5
Philadelphia at Phoenix - Suns by 6
Minnesota at Boston - Celtics by 3.5
Golden State at Washington - Warriors by 6.5
LA Lakers at New Orleans - Pelicans by 3
Charlotte at Brooklyn - Nets by 1.5
Utah at Dallas - Jazz by 1
Results
NCAA: 1-1 (.500) 40-22 overall (.645)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 4-5 overall (.444)
TBC: 1-0 (1.000) 12-2 overall (.857)
NBA: 4-4 (.500) 689-413 overall (.625)
Upsets: 1-2 (.333) 64-127 overall (.335)
Since the beginning of December, the top three teams in my rankings have been Phoenix, Golden State, and Utah in some order, but that has changed with only 3 weeks to go in the regular season, with Boston sliding up 3 spots to #2 after going 8-1 over the past 3 weeks. Golden State dropped a couple notches after posting a losing record of 5-6 during that same time, though they looked good in the few games that their big 3 were able to play together. Here are my full current rankings and playoff picks:
|
|
|
|
|
Record |
Proj |
|
||
|
Rank |
LW |
Team |
Rating |
W |
L |
W |
L |
Seed |
|
1 |
1 |
Phoenix |
-7.282 |
60 |
14 |
66 |
16 |
W1 |
|
2 |
5 |
Boston |
-5.247 |
46 |
28 |
51 |
31 |
E2 |
|
3 |
3 |
Utah |
-5.03 |
45 |
29 |
50 |
32 |
W4 |
|
4 |
2 |
Golden State |
-4.947 |
48 |
26 |
53 |
29 |
W3 |
|
5 |
6 |
Memphis |
-4.359 |
51 |
23 |
55 |
27 |
W2 |
|
6 |
8 |
Milwaukee |
-3.817 |
46 |
27 |
51 |
31 |
E3 |
|
7 |
4 |
Miami |
-3.746 |
47 |
27 |
52 |
30 |
E1 |
|
8 |
12 |
Minnesota |
-2.938 |
42 |
33 |
46 |
36 |
W7 |
|
9 |
9 |
Philadelphia |
-2.726 |
46 |
27 |
51 |
31 |
E4 |
|
10 |
7 |
Dallas |
-2.458 |
45 |
29 |
50 |
32 |
W5 |
|
11 |
10 |
Cleveland |
-2.123 |
41 |
32 |
46 |
36 |
E6 |
|
12 |
11 |
Denver |
-1.956 |
43 |
31 |
48 |
34 |
W6 |
|
13 |
13 |
Toronto |
-1.881 |
41 |
32 |
46 |
36 |
E7 |
|
14 |
15 |
Atlanta |
-0.77 |
37 |
37 |
42 |
40 |
E10 |
|
15 |
16 |
Charlotte |
-0.42 |
38 |
36 |
42 |
40 |
E9 |
|
16 |
14 |
Chicago |
-0.366 |
42 |
31 |
46 |
36 |
E5 |
|
17 |
19 |
Brooklyn |
-0.288 |
38 |
35 |
43 |
39 |
E8 |
|
18 |
21 |
New York |
0.3394 |
33 |
41 |
37 |
45 |
|
|
19 |
18 |
San Antonio |
0.8096 |
29 |
44 |
33 |
49 |
|
|
20 |
20 |
New Orleans |
0.8775 |
31 |
42 |
36 |
46 |
W9 |
|
21 |
17 |
LA Clippers |
1.4443 |
36 |
39 |
39 |
43 |
W8 |
|
22 |
22 |
Indiana |
2.2741 |
25 |
49 |
28 |
54 |
|
|
23 |
24 |
LA Lakers |
2.6685 |
31 |
42 |
34 |
48 |
W10 |
|
24 |
23 |
Washington |
3.1915 |
31 |
42 |
34 |
48 |
|
|
25 |
26 |
Sacramento |
4.4867 |
26 |
48 |
29 |
53 |
|
|
26 |
25 |
Portland |
5.4998 |
27 |
46 |
30 |
52 |
|
|
27 |
27 |
Oklahoma City |
6.1586 |
21 |
52 |
24 |
58 |
|
|
28 |
28 |
Orlando |
6.6 |
20 |
54 |
22 |
60 |
|
|
29 |
29 |
Detroit |
6.7676 |
20 |
54 |
22 |
60 |
|
|
30 |
30 |
Houston |
7.8212 |
19 |
55 |
21 |
61 |
|
Playoff Picks
Play In
(7) Raptors over (8) Nets in 3
(9) Hornets over (10) Hawks
(8) Nets over (9) Hornets
(7) Timberwolves over (8) Clippers in 2
(9) Pelicans over (10) Lakers
(9) Pelicans over (8) Clippers
First Round
(8) Nets over (1) Heat in 7
(2) Celtics over (7) Raptors in 6
(3) Bucks over (6) Cavaliers in 5
(4) 76ers over (5) Bulls in 5
(1) Suns over (9) Pelicans in 5
(7) Timberwolves over (2) Grizzlies in 7
(3) Warriors over (6) Nuggets in 7
(4) Jazz over (5) Mavericks in 5
Second Round
(4) 76ers over (8) Nets in 7
(2) Celtics over (3) Bucks in 7
(1) Suns over (4) Jazz in 6
(7) Timberwolves over (3) Warriors in 7
Conference Finals
(2) Celtics over (4) 76ers in 5
(1) Suns over (7) Timberwolves in 6
NBA Finals
(1) Suns over (2) Celtics in 7
Upset picks are in italics.
NCAA
(5) Houston vs. (2) Villanova - Cougars by 2
(4) Arkansas vs. (2) Duke - Blue Devils by 3
TBC
Portland at Southern Utah - Thunderbirds by 6
NBA
San Antonio at New Orleans - Pelicans by 1.5
Sacramento at Orlando - Kings by 0.5
Indiana at Toronto - Raptors by 5.5
Chicago at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 3
Brooklyn at Miami - Heat by 5
Milwaukee at Memphis - Grizzlies by 2
Oklahoma City at Denver - Nuggets by 9.5
Houston at Portland - Trail Blazers by 4
Results
NCAA: 1-3 (.250) 39-21 overall (.650)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 4-4 overall (.500)
NBA: 3-4 (.429) 685-409 overall (.626)
Upsets: 1-2 (.333) 63-125 overall (.335)
Upset picks are in italics.
NCAA
(15) Saint Peter's vs. (3) Purdue - Boilermakers by 10
(4) Providence vs. (1) Kansas - Jayhawks by 7
(8) North Carolina vs. (4) UCLA - Bruins by 4
(11) Iowa State vs. (10) Miami - Cyclones by 0.5
NBA
Utah at Charlotte - Jazz by 3.5
Washington at Detroit - Wizards by 2
Golden State at Atlanta - Warriors by 3
New York at Miami - Heat by 6
Dallas at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 1.5
Houston at Portland - Trail Blazers by 4.5
Philadelphia at LA Clippers - 76ers by 2
Results
NCAA: 2-2 (.500) 38-18 overall (.679)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 4-3 overall (.571)
NBA: 4-1 (.800) 682-405 overall (.627)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 62-123 overall (.335)
Upset picks are in italics.
NCAA
(4) Arkansas vs. (1) Gonzaga - Bulldogs by 7.5
(11) Michigan vs. (2) Villanova - Wildcats by 5
(3) Texas Tech vs. (2) Duke - Blue Devils by 0.5
(5) Houston vs. (1) Arizona - Wildcats by 0.5
NBA
Cleveland at Toronto - Raptors by 1
Indiana at Memphis - Grizzlies by 7.5
Washington at Milwaukee - Bucks by 8.5
Chicago at New Orleans - Bulls by 0.5
Phoenix at Denver - Suns by 4
Results
NIT: 1-1 (.500) 19-9 overall (.679)
CBI: 0-1 (.000) 7-8 overall (.467)
TBC: 1-0 (1.000) 11-2 overall (.846)
NBA: 7-4 (.636) 678-404 overall (.627)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 61-123 overall (.332)
Upset picks are in italics.
NIT
Wake Forest at Texas A&M - Aggies by 3
Washington State at BYU - BYU Cougars by 3.5
CBI
Middle Tennessee vs. UNC Wilmington - Blue Raiders by 5
TBC
Youngstown State at Fresno State - Bulldogs by 14.5
NBA
New York at Charlotte - Hornets by 2.5
Atlanta at Detroit - Hawks by 6.5
Sacramento at Indiana - Pacers by 4
Utah at Boston - Celtics by 1
Golden State at Miami - Heat by 0.5
Brooklyn at Memphis - Grizzlies by 5
Phoenix at Minnesota - Suns by 3
Orlando at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 1.5
Houston at Dallas - Mavericks by 12
Philadelphia at LA Lakers - 76ers by 3.5
San Antonio at Portland - Spurs by 2.5
Results
NIT: 1-1 (.500) 18-8 overall (.692)
CBI: 2-0 (1.000) 7-7 overall (.500)
TBC: 0-1 (.000) 10-2 overall (.833)
NBA: 3-1 (.750) 671-400 overall (.627)
Upsets: 59-123 overall (.324)
Upset picks are in italics.
NIT
St. Bonaventure at Virginia - Cavaliers by 4
Vanderbilt at Xavier - Musketeers by 5.5
CBI
UNC Wilmington vs. Northern Colorado - Seahawks by 2
Middle Tennessee vs. Abilene Christian - Blue Raiders by 2
TBC
Southern Utah at UTEP - Miners by 4
NBA
Golden State at Orlando - Warriors by 10.5
Atlanta at New York - Hawks by 0.5
Chicago at Milwaukee - Bucks by 4
LA Clippers at Denver - Nuggets by 4.5
Results
CBI: 1-3 (.250) 5-7 overall (.417)
TBC: 2-0 (1.000) 10-1 overall (.909)
NBA: 5-4 (.556) 668-399 overall (.626)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 59-123 overall (.324)
Upset picks are in italics.
CBI
Drake vs. UNC Wilmington - Bulldogs by 5.5
Northern Colorado vs. UNC Asheville - Bulldogs by 1.5
Middle Tennessee vs. Boston U - Blue Raiders by 5.5
Ohio vs. Abilene Christian - Bobcats by 0.5
TBC
Florida Gulf Coast at Coastal Carolina - Chanticleers by 5.5
South Carolina Upstate at South Alabama - Jaguars by 9.5
NBA
New Orleans at Charlotte - Hornets by 3
LA Lakers at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 7
Portland at Detroit - Trail Blazers by 1
Miami at Philadelphia - Heat by 0.5
Utah at Brooklyn - Jazz by 4
Toronto at Chicago - Bulls by 0.5
Washington at Houston - Wizards by 4
Boston at Oklahoma City - Celtics by 10
Minnesota at Dallas - Mavericks by 1
Results
NCAA: 6-2 (.750) 36-16 overall (.692)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 3-3 (.500)
NIT: 2-3 (.400) 17-7 overall (.708)
CBI: 1-3 (.250) 4-4 overall (.500)
NBA: 6-3 (.667) 663-395 overall (.627)
Upsets: 58-123 overall (.320)
Upset picks are in italics.
NCAA
(5) Houston vs. (4) Illinois - Cougars by 4.5
(7) Ohio State vs. (2) Villanova - Wildcats by 5
(7) Michigan State vs. (2) Duke - Blue Devils by 5.5
(11) Iowa State vs. (3) Wisconsin - Badgers by 1
(11) Notre Dame vs. (3) Texas Tech - Red Raiders by 7
(10) Miami vs. (2) Auburn - Tigers by 8.5
(6) Texas vs. (3) Purdue - Boilermakers by 2.5
(9) TCU vs. (1) Arizona - Wildcats by 8
NIT
Florida at Xavier - Musketeers by 4
Washington State at SMU - Mustangs by 5
Dayton at Vanderbilt - Commodores by 3.5
Virginia at North Texas - Mean Green by 6
St. Bonaventure at Oklahoma - Sooners by 8
CBI
VMI vs. UNC Wilmington - Keydets by 2
Northern Colorado vs. FAU - Owls by 4
Boston U vs. UNC Greensboro - Spartans by 1.5
Troy vs. Abilene Christian - Wildcats by 2.5
NBA
Portland at Indiana - Pacers by 4
Memphis at Houston - Grizzlies by 10.5
Phoenix at Sacramento - Suns by 10.5
New Orleans at Atlanta - Hawks by 3.5
Oklahoma City at Orlando - Magic by 1
Utah at New York - Jazz by 4.5
Boston at Denver - Celtics by 1
Toronto at Philadelphia - 76ers by 2
San Antonio at Golden State - Warriors by 8
Results
NCAA: 5-3 (.625) 30-14 overall (.682)
NIT: 3-0 (1.000) 15-4 (.789)
CBI: 3-1 (.750)
TBC: 2-0 (1.000) 8-1 overall (.889)
NBA: 3-1 (.750) 657-392 overall (.626)
Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 58-123 overall (.320)
Upset picks are in italics.
NCAA
(8) North Carolina vs. (1) Baylor - Bears by 5.5
(9) Creighton vs. (1) Kansas - Jayhawks by 9
(11) Michigan vs. (3) Tennessee - Volunteers by 6.5
(12) Richmond vs. (4) Providence - Friars by 2.5
(5) Saint Mary's vs. (4) UCLA - Bruins by 3
(15) Saint Peter's vs. (7) Murray State - Racers by 6
(12) New Mexico State vs. (4) Arkansas - Razorbacks by 6
(9) Memphis vs. (1) Gonzaga - Bulldogs by 8.5
NIT
Oregon at Texas A&M - Aggies by 6.5
VCU at Wake Forest - Demon Deacons by 5
Northern Iowa at BYU - Cougars by 6.5
CBI
Purdue Fort Wayne vs. Drake - Bulldogs by 7
UNC Asheville vs. Stephen F Austin - Lumberjacks by 3
Cal Baptist vs. Middle Tennessee - Blue Raiders by 7
Rice vs. Ohio - Bobcats by 5
TBC
Western Illinois at UTEP - Miners by 7
New Orleans at Portland - Pilots by 6.5
NBA
Milwaukee at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 0.5
Dallas at Charlotte - Mavericks by 1.5
Detroit at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 11
LA Lakers at Washington - Wizards by 1
Results
NCAA: 11-5 (.688) 25-11 overall (.694)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 2-3 overall (.400)
NBA: 9-3 (.750) 654-391 overall (.626)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 57-122 overall (.318)
Upset picks are in italics.
NCAA
(10) Loyola Chicago vs. (7) Ohio State - Ramblers by 0.5
(15) Jacksonville State vs. (2) Auburn - Tigers by 14
(14) Montana State vs. (3) Texas Tech - Red Raiders by 11.5
(14) Yale vs. (3) Purdue - Boilermakers by 12
(15) Delaware vs. (2) Villanova - Wildcats by 13
(10) Miami vs. (7) USC - Trojans by 1.5
(11) Notre Dame vs. (6) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 3.5
(11) Virginia Tech vs. (6) Texas - Longhorns by 1
(13) Chattanooga vs. (4) Illinois - Illini by 4.5
(15) CSU Fullerton vs. (2) Duke - Blue Devils by 15
(11) Iowa State vs. (6) LSU - Tigers by 4.5
(16) Wright State vs. (1) Arizona - Wildcats by 17
(12) UAB vs. (5) Houston - Cougars by 7.5
(10) Davidson vs. (7) Michigan State - Spartans by 0.5
(14) Colgate vs. (3) Wisconsin - Badgers by 6
(9) TCU vs. (8) Seton Hall - Pirates by 0.5
NBA
Dallas at Philadelphia - 76ers by 0.5
Washington at New York - Knicks by 4
LA Lakers at Toronto - Raptors by 5.5
Memphis at Atlanta - Grizzlies by 2
Portland at Brooklyn - Nets by 6
Denver at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 1.5
Oklahoma City at Miami - Heat by 12
Indiana at Houston - Pacers by 4.5
New Orleans at San Antonio - Spurs by 2
LA Clippers at Utah - Jazz by 7.5
Chicago at Phoenix - Suns by 7.5
Boston at Sacramento - Celtics by 7.5
Results
NBA: 0-1 (.000) 645-388 overall (.624)
Upsets: 56-122 overall (.315)
NCAA: 11-5 (.688) 14-6 overall (.700)
Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 2-2 overall (.500)
TBC: 1-0 (1.000) 6-1 overall (.857)
Upset picks are in italics.
NCAA
(11) Michigan vs. (6) Colorado State - Wolverines by 0.5
(13) South Dakota State vs. (4) Providence - Friars by 1
(9) Memphis vs. (8) Boise State - Tigers by 1
(16) Norfolk State vs. (1) Baylor - Bears by 15
(14) Longwood vs. (3) Tennessee - Volunteers by 14
(12) Richmond vs. (5) Iowa - Hawkeyes by 9
(16) Georgia State vs. (1) Gonzaga - Bulldogs by 18.5
(9) Marquette vs. (8) North Carolina - Tar Heels by 2
(12) New Mexico State vs. (5) UConn - Huskies by 6.5
(15) Saint Peter's vs. (2) Kentucky - Wildcats by 13.5
(12) Indiana vs. (5) Saint Mary's - Gaels by 2
(9) Creighton vs. (8) San Diego State - Aztecs by 2.5
(13) Vermont vs. (4) Arkansas - Razorbacks by 3
(10) San Francisco vs. (7) Murray State - Dons by 1
(13) Akron vs. (4) UCLA - Bruins by 13
(16) Texas Southern vs. (1) Kansas - Jayhawks by 16
TBC
Eastern Washington at Fresno State - Bulldogs by 12
NBA
Detroit at Orlando - Magic by 2.5
Results
NCAA: 1-1 (.500) 3-1 overall (.750)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000)
NIT: 5-2 (.714) 12-4 overall (.750)
TBC: 5-0 (1.000) 5-1 overall (.833)
NBA: 10-2 (.833) 645-387 overall (.625)
Upset Picks are in italics.
NCAA
(16) Bryant vs. (16) Wright State - Bulldogs by 0.5
(11) Notre Dame vs. (11) Rutgers - Irish by 1.5
NIT
Towson at Wake Forest - Demon Deacons by 8
Dayton at Toledo - Rockets by 3.5
Mississippi State at Virginia - Cavaliers by 1
Nicholls at SMU - Mustangs by 13
Northern Iowa at Saint Louis - Billikens by 7.5
Long Beach State at BYU - Cougars by 11
Iona at Florida - Gators by 5.5
TBC
Detroit Mercy at Florida Gulf Coast - Eagles by 5.5
Maryland-Eastern Shore at Coastal Carolina - Chanticleers by 10.5
Merrimack at UMBC - Retrievers by 7.5
SE Louisiana at South Alabama - Jaguars by 10.5
Morgan State at Youngstown State - Penguins by 6.5
Kent State at Southern Utah - Thunderbirds by 3
NBA
Atlanta at Charlotte - Hornets by 0.5
Philadelphia at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 2
Denver at Washington - Nuggets by 3.5
Dallas at Brooklyn - Mavericks by 1.5
Portland at New York - Knicks by 5
Phoenix at Houston - Suns by 14
LA Lakers at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 6.5
Oklahoma City at San Antonio - Spurs by 7
Chicago at Utah - Jazz by 5.5
Boston at Golden State - Warriors by 3
Milwaukee at Sacramento - Bucks by 6.5
Toronto at LA Clippers - Raptors by 1.5
Results
NCAA: 2-0 (1.000)
NIT: 7-2 (.778)
TBC: 0-1 (.000)
NBA: 4-0 (1.000) 635-385 overall (.623)
Upsets: 55-121 overall (.313)
It's once again time for my favorite post of the year. I have analyzed the results of all 5881 games that took place this season, adjusting for home court, strength of schedule, etc., then plugged those results into the bracket that was released on Sunday to determine which teams have the best odds of advancing through each round and winning the tournament. Hopefully this info is helpful to you in filling out your bracket.
Best Teams Left Out
29. Wake Forest
35. Oklahoma
44. Mississippi State
45. Oklahoma State
46. Texas A&M
47. SMU
49. Florida
Oklahoma State was ineligible for this year's tournament, but still had a decent season. The others all made appearances in my bracket updates throughout the season, including 2 (Texas A&M and SMU), that I had in my final bracket. Wake Forest lost their chance at the tournament when they lost to Boston College in the first round of the ACC Tournament, and Oklahoma lost 15 games this year, which no team has ever overcome to make the tournament. The top eligible team on this list last season, Memphis, ended up winning the NIT, so the Demon Deacons could be in for a good run in that competition.
Worst At-Large Teams Selected
50. Marquette
54. Iowa State
56. Creighton
60. Notre Dame
61. Wyoming
64. Miami
81. Rutgers
This list includes the two teams that made the field that I didn't correctly predict (Rutgers and Notre Dame), along with 5 others who were somewhat underwhelming for a good chunk of the season. Of the 5 teams that made this list last season, 4 did not win a single game in the tournament.
Teams that are Better than their Seed
1. Virginia Tech
2. San Francisco
3. Houston
4. Memphis
5. Loyola-Chicago
6. Michigan
7. Vermont
8. Iowa
9. LSU
10. Indiana
11. South Dakota State
Many of these teams were seeded lower than their talent would suggest due to the overall weakness of their schedules, but they are good bets to go farther than expected in the tournament. The 8 teams on this list last season won a total of 12 games, 9 more than was expected based on their seeds, including USC, a 6-seed who reached the Elite 8, and UCLA, an 11 who reached the Final Four. This is a good place to start looking for upsets.
Teams that are Worse than their Seed
1. Providence
2. Wisconsin
3. Colorado State
4. Creighton
5. Michigan State
6. USC
7. TCU
8. Marquette
9. Miami
10. Rutgers
These teams are good bets to exit the tournament early. The 10 teams on this list last season won a total of only 5 games, 8 fewer than expected, and none of them won more than one game or reached the Sweet 16. Picking one of these teams to make a deep run would probably be pretty dangerous.
Projected First Round Upsets
9.8
This number has dropped from last season, when it sat at 10.1, and there were exactly 10 upsets in the first round. It is probably best to pick somewhere between 8 and 11 this season.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
(9) Memphis over (8) Boise State - 53.1%
(10) San Francisco over (7) Murray State - 52.7%
(11) Michigan over (6) Colorado State - 51.1%
(10) Loyola Chicago over (7) Ohio State - 50.6%
(10) Davidson over (7) Michigan State - 49.4%
(9) TCU over (8) Seton Hall - 47.8%
(11) Virginia Tech over (6) Texas - 47.7%
(13) South Dakota State over (4) Providence - 47.6%
(10) Miami over (7) USC - 45.5%
(9) Marquette over (8) North Carolina - 44.0%
(9) Creighton over (8) San Diego State - 42.9%
(12) Wyoming/Indiana over (5) Saint Mary's - 41.5%
(13) Vermont over (4) Arkansas - 40.8%
There are 4 lower seeds that I am favoring to win in the first round, and 9 others with a very good chance at pulling one off. I put 9 potential upsets on this list last season, and 3 happened, including the top 2 on the list, but most of last year's upsets were a little more unlikely. Still, this is not a bad place to start when picking upsets.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to Win a Game
(15) Delaware over (2) Villanova - 14.0%
(15) Saint Peter's over (2) Kentucky - 13.8%
(15) Jacksonville State over (2) Auburn - 11.9%
(15) CSU Fullerton over (2) Duke - 10.8%
(16) Norfolk State over (1) Baylor - 10.6%
These don't happen often for a reason, but there is about a 50-50 shot that we'll see one this year, so if you feel like taking a risk, these 5 are the ones that are much more likely to happen. Last year, #15 Oral Roberts upset #2 Ohio State, and they were one of the 3 on my list that had a possibility of pulling it off.
Most Likely Cinderellas
(11) Virginia Tech - 21.9%
(10) Loyola-Chicago - 20.6%
(10) San Francisco - 19.9%
(11) Michigan - 18.9%
(13) Vermont - 18.81%
(10) Davidson - 18.77%
(11) Iowa State - 18.7%
(13) South Dakota State - 17.7%
(12) Wyoming/Indiana - 14.8%
(10) Miami - 13.7%
(11) Rutgers/Notre Dame - 13.3%
(12) UAB - 12.8%
(13) Chattanooga - 11.7%
(12) New Mexico State - 11.0%
(12) Richmond - 10.8%
There were 4 double-digit seeds that made it to at least the Sweet 16 last year, and three of them were among the 10 most likely on my list. There are several good options on this list, and it's very likely that at least a couple teams from this list will still be playing next week.
Projected Number of Cinderellas
2.9
Last year's projection was 3.1, so the total of 4 was right in the expected range. Between 2 and 4 seems very likely again this year.
#1 Seeds in the Final Four
1.1
Last year's projection was 1.4, and 2 ended up reaching the Final Four. This year it seems even less likely that we will see multiple #1 seeds in the Final Four, so don't give in to the temptation to just keep all of the #1 seeds alive, because they are all vulnerable to some extent, this year more than usual.
Odds of a #1 Seed Winning the Championship
38.1%
This is the lowest number I can recall in this section. Last year's odds were 52.4%, and for the 4th season in a row, a #1 seed took home the title. If a lower seed is ever going to pull it off, this might be the year.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
(1) Gonzaga - 74.0%
(1) Arizona - 71.0%
(1) Kansas - 66.5%
(2) Auburn - 63.9%
(1) Baylor - 61.3%
(3) Tennessee - 59.8%
(2) Kentucky - 59.1%
(2) Duke - 59.0%
(2) Villanova - 55.7%
(4) UCLA - 55.4%
(3) Texas Tech - 52.2%
(5) Iowa - 50.8%
(3) Purdue - 48.8%
(5) Houston - 48.0%
(6) LSU - 41.5%
(5) UConn - 37.5%
(4) Arkansas - 32.7%
(3) Wisconsin - 30.4%
9 of last season's Sweet 16 had over a 30% chance of reaching that point before the tournament started, so there were several surprise teams, but most of the teams at the top of the list were still around after the opening weekend.
Most Likely Final Four Teams
(1) Gonzaga - 37.9%
(1) Arizona - 27.5%
(1) Kansas - 25.9%
(2) Auburn - 25.0%
(2) Kentucky - 21.6%
(1) Baylor - 20.6%
(3) Tennessee - 18.6%
(4) UCLA - 16.9%
(2) Duke - 16.6%
(2) Villanova - 15.5%
(5) Houston - 15.3%
(5) Iowa - 14.8%
(3) Texas Tech - 13.6%
(3) Purdue - 12.8%
Last year there were only 9 teams with at least a 10% chance of making the Final Four, and this year there are 14, so this field is definitely more wide-open than last year. 3 of the top 5 teams on last season's list made it to the final weekend, so these are definitely the best teams to pick for a deep run.
Most Likely Champions
(1) Gonzaga - 15.5%
(1) Arizona - 9.4%
(1) Kansas - 7.5%
(2) Auburn - 7.1%
(2) Kentucky - 6.4%
(1) Baylor - 5.7%
(3) Tennessee - 5.2%
(5) Houston - 4.6%
(4) UCLA - 4.32%
(2) Duke - 4.30%
(2) Villanova - 4.0%
(5) Iowa - 3.6%
(3) Texas Tech - 3.4%
(3) Purdue - 2.9%
Last year, only 9 teams made this list with at least a 2% chance of winning it all, and the title went to Baylor, who was #4 on the list, the first time since 2016 that the winner wasn't in the top 2 on my list. There are 14 teams on this list this season, and any of them could realistically win it all, and Gonzaga is even less of a favorite than last year, when they had a 26% chance of winning the championship.
Most Common Nicknames
Wildcats - 4
Tigers - 4
Bulldogs - 3
Raiders/Red Raiders - 3
Hurricanes/Cylcones - 2
Bears/Bruins - 2
Spartans - 2
Catamounts/Cougars - 2
Teams by State
Texas - 7
California - 6
Virginia - 4
Alabama - 4
Tennessee - 3
New Jersey - 3
Indiana - 3
Ohio - 3
North Carolina - 2
Illinois - 2
Connecticut - 2
Kentucky - 2
Michigan - 2
Iowa - 2
Rhode Island - 2
Wisconsin - 2
Arkansas - 1
Arizona - 1
Colorado - 1
Florida - 1
Georgia - 1
Idaho - 1
Delaware - 1
Kansas - 1
Louisiana - 1
Montana - 1
Nebraska - 1
New Mexico - 1
New York - 1
Pennsylvania - 1
South Dakota - 1
Vermont - 1
Washington - 1
Wyoming - 1
My Picks
First Round Winners
(1) Gonzaga
(9) Memphis
(5) UConn
(13) Vermont
(6) Alabama
(3) Texas Tech
(10) Davidson
(2) Duke
(1) Baylor
(9) Marquette
(12) Wyoming/Indiana
(4) UCLA
(11) Virginia Tech
(3) Purdue
(10) San Francisco
(2) Kentucky
(1) Arizona
(9) TCU
(5) Houston
(4) Illinois
(11) Michigan
(3) Tennessee
(10) Loyola-Chicago
(2) Villanova
(1) Kansas
(9) Creighton
(5) Iowa
(13) South Dakota State
(6) LSU
(3) Wisconsin
(10) Miami
(2) Auburn
That is a total of 13 first round upsets, probably a little high, but it's been a crazy season and I'm hoping for a crazy tournament to wrap it up.
Sweet 16
(1) Gonzaga
(13) Vermont
(6) Alabama
(2) Duke
(1) Baylor
(4) UCLA
(11) Virginia Tech
(2) Kentucky
(1) Arizona
(5) Houston
(3) Tennessee
(2) Villanova
(1) Kansas
(5) Iowa
(6) LSU
(2) Auburn
I've got all of the #1's and #2 advancing this far, along with a couple of Cinderella teams. There are 5 SEC teams at this point, with 2 each from the Pac 12, Big 12, and ACC.
Elite Eight
(1) Gonzaga
(2) Duke
(4) UCLA
(2) Kentucky
(5) Houston
(3) Tennessee
(5) Iowa
(2) Auburn
This is where the big teams start to go down, with 3 #1 seeds falling in this round alone. 3 SEC teams remain alive, the only conference with multiple teams left.
Final Four
(1) Gonzaga
(4) UCLA
(5) Houston
(5) Iowa
Now the #2 seeds fall, leaving behind Gonzaga and 3 slight surprise teams playing on to the final weekend.
Championship
(1) Gonzaga
(5) Iowa
#1 overall seed Gonzaga reaches the title game yet again, where they face the Big 10 champs from Iowa.
Champion
(1) Gonzaga
I am picking the Bulldogs to win just like I did last year, even though they fell just short last time. Their odds might not be as good, but with how wide-open the field is, much of their toughest competition may fall earlier than expected, paving the way for their first-ever title.
