NBA Playoff Odds - 2025

The NBA Playoffs are starting this morning, now that the play-in tournament has ended, and the Oklahoma City Thunder are the biggest favorite I have seen in my time of predicting the playoffs. The top 2 seeds in the East have a chance as well, but it's pretty unlikely that the ultimate champion will come from any of the other 13 teams. One quick note: the Lakers odds throughout this post are probably lower than they should be. The team has had limited time together as presently constituted, and that means that much of their data consists of the first two-thirds of the season, in which they were playing at a play-in level, at best. Here are each team's odds throughout the playoffs, along with my picks for the results of each series:

Odds of Winning First Round

(1) Cavaliers - 95.0%

(1) Thunder - 94.2%

(2) Celtics - 94.1%

(6) Timberwolves - 71.9%

(3) Knicks - 66.1%

(2) Rockets - 60.5%

(4) Nuggets - 56.5%

(5) Bucks - 55.2%

(4) Pacers - 44.8%

(5) Clippers - 43.5%

(7) Warriors - 39.5%

(6) Pistons - 33.9%

(3) Lakers - 28.1%

(7) Magic - 5.9%

(8) Grizzlies - 5.8%

(8) Heat - 5.0%

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

(1) Thunder - 88.7%

(1) Cavaliers - 85.2%

(2) Celtics - 78.4%

(6) Timberwolves - 40.6%

(2) Rockets - 33.3%

(7) Warriors - 17.0%

(3) Knicks - 15.2%

(3) Lakers - 9.1%

(5) Bucks - 8.0%

(4) Pacers - 5.0%

(6) Pistons - 4.8%

(4) Nuggets - 4.4%

(5) Clippers - 4.1%

(8) Grizzlies - 2.8%

(8) Heat - 1.7%

(7) Magic - 1.6%

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

(1) Thunder - 82.8%

(1) Cavaliers - 54.8%

(2) Celtics - 38.1%

(6) Timberwolves - 5.5%

(2) Rockets - 4.1%

(3) Knicks - 3.4%

(5) Clippers - 2.11%

(4) Nuggets - 2.05%

(5) Bucks - 1.8%

(7) Warriors - 1.5%

(8) Grizzlies - 1.3%

(4) Pacers - 0.9%

(6) Pistons - 0.6%

(3) Lakers - 0.5%

(8) Heat - 0.2%

(7) Magic - 0.1%

Odds of Winning Championship

(1) Thunder - 65.8%

(1) Cavaliers - 18.3%

(2) Celtics - 10.9%

(6) Timberwolves - 1.6%

(2) Rockets - 1.1%

(5) Clippers - 0.54%

(4) Nuggets - 0.45%

(3) Knicks - 0.4%

(8) Grizzlies - 0.31%

(7) Warriors - 0.30%

(5) Bucks - 0.2%

(4) Pacers - 0.069%

(3) Lakers - 0.065%

(6) Pistons - 0.04%

(8) Heat - 0.009%

(7) Magic - 0.005%

My Picks

First Round

(1) Cavaliers over (8) Heat in 6

(2) Celtics over (7) Magic in 7

(3) Knicks over (6) Pistons in 4

(5) Bucks over (4) Pacers in 7

(1) Thunder over (8) Grizzlies in 6

(7) Warriors over (2) Rockets in 6

(6) Timberwolves over (3) Lakers in 7

(5) Clippers over (4) Nuggets in 6

Second Round

(1) Cavaliers over (5) Bucks in 7

(2) Celtics over (3) Knicks in 7

(1) Thunder over (5) Clippers in 7

(6) Timberwolves over (7) Warriors in 6

Conference Finals

(1) Cavaliers over (2) Celtics in 7

(1) Thunder over (6) Timberwolves in 7

NBA Finals

(1) Thunder over (1) Cavaliers in 5

NBA Rankings - 2 Mar

The hottest team over the past month has been the Miami Heat, who have gone 8-3 since my last update, losing only to the Clippers, Nuggets, and Celtics, all teams currently in the top 5. It didn't show much in the rankings, where they only moved up 3 spots, but they are very close to getting themselves out of the play-in and into the regular playoff spots. Golden State has been the hottest team in the West, winning 11 of their last 13, which earned them a 6-spot jump in the rankings, but still leaves them stuck as the 9th seed in the West. Here are my full current rankings and playoff picks:

				Record		Proj
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	Seed
1	1	Boston	-8.945	47	12	65	17	E1
2	2	Oklahoma City	-6.693	41	18	58	24	W2
3	4	Minnesota	-6.388	42	18	58	24	W1
4	3	LA Clippers	-4.595	38	20	53	29	W4
5	6	Denver	-4.198	41	19	55	27	W3
6	9	New Orleans	-3.864	36	25	49	33	W5
7	8	Cleveland	-3.801	39	20	53	29	E2
8	10	Milwaukee	-3.089	40	21	52	30	E3
9	5	New York	-2.938	35	25	48	34	E5
10	16	Golden State	-2.612	32	27	45	36	W9
11	13	Phoenix	-1.942	35	24	46	36	W7
12	7	Philadelphia	-1.755	34	25	47	35	E6
13	14	Orlando	-1.38	34	26	48	34	E4
14	11	Sacramento	-1.336	34	25	47	35	W6
15	12	Indiana	-1.066	34	27	45	37	E8
16	17	Dallas	-0.738	34	26	45	36	W8
17	20	Miami	-0.389	33	26	46	36	E7
18	15	Houston	0.035	25	34	37	45	OUT
19	18	LA Lakers	0.198	33	28	43	39	W10
20	22	Chicago	1.8019	28	32	38	44	E9
21	21	Brooklyn	1.8749	23	36	34	48	OUT
22	24	Atlanta	2.2336	26	33	35	47	E10
23	19	Utah	2.2435	27	33	35	47
24	23	Toronto	3.156	22	38	31	51
25	25	Memphis	5.1129	20	40	28	54
26	26	Portland	6.6587	16	42	22	60
27	27	San Antonio	6.7555	12	48	18	64
28	29	Detroit	7.8682	9	50	15	67
29	28	Washington	8.5136	9	51	15	67
30	30	Charlotte	9.2196	15	45	19	63

Playoff Picks

Play In

(7) Heat over (8) Pacers

(9) Bulls over (10) Hawks

(8) Pacers over (9) Bulls

(7) Suns over (8) Mavericks

(9) Warriors over (10) Lakers

(8) Mavericks over (9) Warriors

First Round

(1) Celtics over (8) Pacers in 5

(2) Cavaliers over (7) Heat in 7

(3) Bucks over (6) 76ers in 6

(4) Magic over (5) Knicks in 5

(1) Timberwolves over (8) Mavericks in 5

(2) Thunder over (7) Suns in 5

(3) Nuggets over (6) Kings in 7

(5) Pelicans over (4) Clippers in 7

Second Round

(1) Celtics over (4) Magic in 5

(3) Bucks over (2) Cavaliers in 7

(1) Timberwolves over (5) Pelicans in 7

(2) Thunder over (3) Nuggets in 5

Conference Finals

(1) Celtics over (3) Bucks in 6

(2) Thunder over (1) Timberwolves in 7

NBA Finals

(1) Celtics over (2) Thunder in 7

NBA Rankings - Preseason

The NBA is back tonight, with a pair of games featuring the top 4 teams in the West. I went through and analyzed each team's current roster in order to determine these preseason rankings, but as always, there will be teams that overachieve and underachieve, but this is how they should finish based on talent alone, along with how the playoffs should go:

				Record		Proj
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	Seed
1	5	Milwaukee	-5.488			56	24	E1
2	1	Boston	-5.201			55	25	E2
3	3	Denver	-4.745			54	26	W1
4	15	LA Lakers	-4.214			52	28	W2
5	10	Golden State	-4.116			52	28	W3
6	18	Atlanta	-3.241			50	30	E3
7	4	Philadelphia	-3.205			50	30	E4
8	9	Phoenix	-3.154			49	31	W4
9	7	New York	-2.718			48	32	E5
10	6	Memphis	-2.693			48	32	W5
11	19	LA Clippers	-2.496			47	33	W6
12	8	Sacramento	-1.291			44	36	W7
13	20	Minnesota	-0.889			43	37	W8
14	25	Indiana	-0.386			42	38	E6
15	2	Cleveland	0.2417			40	40	E7
16	13	Miami	0.5662			39	41	E8
17	14	Chicago	1.6305			36	44	E9
18	16	Brooklyn	1.8372			35	45	E10
19	12	New Orleans	2.0196			35	45	W9
20	22	Utah	2.0752			34	46	W10
21	21	Dallas	2.2195			34	46
22	29	Detroit	2.6008			33	47
23	11	Toronto	2.9047			32	48
24	23	Washington	3.0564			32	48
25	28	Houston	3.2647			31	49
26	17	Oklahoma City	3.5185			30	50
27	26	Portland	4.5379			27	53
28	24	Orlando	5.566			25	55
29	30	San Antonio	5.6924			24	56
30	27	Charlotte	5.9549			24	56

Playoff Picks

Play In

(7) Cavaliers over (8) Heat

(9) Bulls over (10) Nets

(8) Heat over (9) Bulls

(7) Kings over (8) Timberwolves

(9) Pelicans over (10) Jazz

(8) Timberwolves over (9) Pelicans

First Round

(1) Bucks over (8) Heat in 5

(2) Celtics over (7) Cavaliers in 5

(3) Hawks over (6) Pacers in 6

(4) 76ers over (5) Knicks in 7

(1) Nuggets over (8) Timberwolves in 6

(2) Lakers over (7) Kings in 6

(3) Warriors over (6) Clippers in 6

(4) Suns over (5) Grizzlies in 7

Second Round

(1) Bucks over (4) 76ers in 6

(2) Celtics over (3) Hawks in 6

(1) Nuggets over (4) Suns in 6

(2) Lakers over (3) Warriors in 7

Conference Finals

(1) Bucks over (2) Celtics in 7

(1) Nuggets over (2) Lakers in 7

NBA Finals

(1) Bucks over (1) Nuggets in 7