NBA Playoff Odds - Update 2

 5 of the first-round series have come to an end, with the entire Eastern Conference plus the LA Lakers finishing off their opponents this week, while the three remaining series in the West all sit at 3-2. Here are the updated odds of each team moving forward through the playoffs, with change from last week in parentheses:

Odds of Winning First Round

1. Clippers - 83.2% (+5.2)

2. Rockets - 79.1% (+7.5)

3. Jazz - 78.7% (+2.9)

4. Nuggets - 21.3% (-2.9)

5. Thunder - 20.9% (-7.5)

6. Mavericks - 16.8% (-5.2)

I picked the correct winner in each of the 5 series that have concluded so far, but only picked the correct series length in one (Lakers in 5). My remaining picks are Clippers in 6, which could happen tonight, Jazz in 7, and Thunder in 7, one of which is quite likely.

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

1. Bucks - 85.5% (+2.4)

2. Lakers - 73.9% (+5.2)

3. Clippers - 66.2% (+5.9)

4. Raptors - 53.8% (+1.8)

5. Celtics - 46.3% (-1.4)

6. Rockets - 21.8% (+0.0)

7. Jazz - 19.3% (-1.6)

8. Heat - 14.5% (-1.3)

9. Mavericks - 10.6% (-3.6)

10. Thunder - 4.3% (-3.4)

11. Nuggets - 4.0% (-0.7)

The top 2 seeds in each conference saw their odds increase this week, while pretty much everyone else dropped off, while the Rockets held steady. 

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

1. Bucks - 57.7% (+1.8)

2. Lakers - 41.8% (+2.5)

3. Clippers - 38.7% (+2.9)

4. Raptors - 21.5% (+0.4)

5. Celtics - 16.9% (-1.7)

6. Rockets - 7.6% (+0.1)

7. Jazz - 5.7% (-1.4)

8. Mavericks - 4.2% (-2.3)

9. Heat - 4.0% (-0.3)

10. Thunder - 1.2% (-1.2)

11. Nuggets - 0.9% (-0.3)

Once again, it's the top seeds who were helped the most by this week's results, with Houston also seeing a slight positive change, while Dallas saw the largest drop after being blown out in Game 5.

Odds of Winning NBA Championship

1. Bucks - 39.8% (+0.4)

2. Lakers - 17.5% (+1.1)

3. Clippers - 17.2% (+1.6)

4. Raptors - 11.6% (+0.0)

5. Celtics - 8.5% (-1.4)

6. Rockets - 1.7% (+0.1)

7. Heat - 1.2% (-0.2)

8. Mavericks - 1.12% (-0.9)

9. Jazz - 1.05% (-0.4)

10. Thunder - 0.2% (-0.2)

11. Nuggets - 0.1% (-0.1)

The three teams that are down 3-2 saw their odds basically cut in half this week, while Utah also took a hit because they will likely be facing the Clippers in the next round. The Clippers saw the largest jump after playing their best game of the playoffs in game 5.

NBA Playoff Odds - Update

 Three games have now been played in each first round series, with three teams in the East on the verge of a sweep at 3-0, and the other 5 series at 2-1, with only Utah among the lower seeds leading their series. I've recalculated each team's odds of advancing based on recent performance and their path to getting out of the first round, with change from pre-playoff odds in parentheses:

Odds of Winning First Round

1. Raptors - 99.6% (+10.4)

2. Celtics - 98.6% (+23.3)

3. Bucks - 97.0% (+0.3)

4. Heat - 96.2% (+40.1)

5. Lakers - 93.0% (+3.7)

6. Clippers - 78.0% (+13.1)

7. Jazz - 75.8% (+23.4)

8. Rockets - 71.6% (+21.1)

9. Thunder - 28.4% (-21.1)

10. Nuggets - 24.2% (-23.4)

11. Mavericks - 22.0% (-13.1)

12. Trail Blazers - 7.0% (-1.1)

13. Pacers - 3.8% (-40.1)

14. Magic - 3.0% (-0.3)

15. 76ers - 1.4% (-23.3)

16. Nets - 0.4% (-10.4)

The Heat have done the most to improve their odds so far, taking what looked like an even match going in and taking a 3-0 lead against the higher seed. My pick of the series going 7 games may be in trouble, but the Heat winning is still intact. The only team I picked to win this round that is currently trailing is Oklahoma City, who has the best odds of a comeback of any team left.

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

1. Bucks - 83.1% (-3.1)

2. Lakers - 68.7% (+3.0)

3. Clippers - 60.3% (+8.5)

4. Raptors - 52.0% (+0.4)

5. Celtics - 47.7% (+8.0)

6. Rockets - 21.8% (+5.9)

7. Jazz - 20.9% (+7.5)

8. Heat - 15.8% (+7.8)

9. Mavericks - 14.2% (-9.3)

10. Thunder - 7.7% (-7.7)

11. Nuggets - 4.7% (-6.6)

12. Trail Blazers - 1.9% (-0.3)

13. Magic - 0.7% (-0.2)

14. Pacers - 0.4% (-4.5)

15. 76ers - 0.3% (-6.7)

The Nets' odds of winning 2 rounds are so miniscule now that I'm not including them. Milwaukee is the only current leader whose odds took a hit, mostly due to their poor performance in game 1, but they are still a huge favorite to reach the conference finals again. Toronto didn't see much of a jump even with their 3-0 lead, because the Celtics are doing the same thing and they will be meeting in the next round.

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

1. Bucks - 55.9% (-7.2)

2. Lakers - 39.3% (+1.3)

3. Clippers - 35.8% (+3.9)

4. Raptors - 21.1% (+2.7)

5. Celtics - 18.6% (+5.0)

6. Rockets - 7.5% (+2.0)

7. Jazz - 7.1% (+2.8)

8. Mavericks - 6.5% (-4.6)

9. Heat - 4.3% (+1.9)

10. Thunder - 2.4% (-2.9)

11. Nuggets - 1.2% (-2.2)

12. Trail Blazers - 0.3% (-0.1)

Toronto and Boston are creeping up on the Bucks in the East, but Milwaukee is still the most likely to represent the East. The LA teams are nearly equal in the West, but the other 6 teams all still have a chance at least, while the 4 teams currently trailing in the East are pretty much guaranteed not to reach the Finals at this point.

Odds of Winning Championship

1. Bucks - 39.4% (-6.6)

2. Lakers - 16.4% (+1.1)

3. Clippers - 15.6% (+1.8)

4. Raptors - 11.6% (+1.8)

5. Celtics - 9.9% (+2.9)

6. Mavericks - 2.0% (-1.3)

7. Rockets - 1.6% (+0.5)

8. Jazz - 1.5% (+0.7)

9. Heat - 1.4% (+0.7)

10. Thunder - 0.4% (-0.6)

11. Nuggets - 0.2% (-0.4)

Milwaukee is still the favorite, but they are moving closer to the group of 4 contenders, 2 each from the East and West, below them. There are 6 other teams with a chance, but none is very likely.

NBA Playoff Odds

 Now that the playoff matchups are (pretty much) set, it's time to see which teams are favored to make it through each round of the playoffs that start Monday, and how much their chances changed over the past 2 weeks after the conclusion of the seeding games.

Odds of Winning Play-In

Trail Blazers - 75.2% (+68.0)

Grizzlies - 24.8% (-36.1)

Portland and Memphis will be playing this afternoon for the right to play the Lakers in the first round. If Memphis wins today, they will play again tomorrow, with the winner facing LA on Tuesday in Game 1 of the first round. If Portland wins today, the Sunday game will be skipped. Portland has an obvious advantage in having to win only once in two tries, but it's not a foregone conclusion.

Odds of Winning First Round

1. Bucks - 96.7% (-1.5)

2. Lakers - 89.3% (-5.2)

3. Raptors - 89.2% (+1.5)

4. Celtics - 75.3% (-1.0)

5. Clippers - 64.9% (-0.8)

6. Heat - 56.1% (+3.0)

7. Jazz - 52.4% (+6.8)

8. Rockets - 50.5% (+7.4)

9. Thunder - 49.5% (+4.7)

10. Nuggets - 47.6% (+4.3)

11. Pacers - 43.9% (+9.9)

12. Mavericks - 35.1% (-22.2)

13. 76ers - 24.7% (-13.8)

14. Nets - 10.8% (+3.8)

15. Trail Blazers - 8.1% (+7.8)

16. Magic - 3.3% (-1.9)

17. Grizzlies - 2.6% (-0.5)

The only top contender to see its odds increase in the bubble was Toronto, who played hard to clinch the 2-seed and the much easier opponent it came with. Dallas ended up at the bottom of the middle section of the West, which matches them up with the Clippers in the first round, which sent their odds tumbling, and the Sixers found themselves in a similar situation in the East, having to face the Celtics in the first round. Indiana had the best bubble bump, ending up #4 instead of the projected #6 in the East.

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

1. Bucks - 86.2% (-3.8)

2. Lakers - 65.7% (-7.9)

3. Clippers - 51.8% (+5.6)

4. Raptors - 51.6% (+0.7)

5. Celtics - 39.7% (-1.9)

6. Mavericks - 23.5% (-6.9)

7. Rockets - 15.9% (+2.4)

8. Thunder - 15.4% (+3.2)

9. Jazz - 13.4% (+1.6)

10. Nuggets - 11.3% (+0.4)

11. Heat - 8.0% (+2.7)

12. 76ers - 7.0% (+1.7)

13. Pacers - 4.9% (+0.1)

14. Trail Blazers - 2.2% (+2.2)

15. Nets - 1.8% (+0.7)

16. Magic - 0.9% (-0.1)

17. Grizzlies - 0.7% (+0.04)

Clinching the 2 seed in the West helped the Clippers a lot here, because the teams in the 3-6 first round series are a little weaker than Dallas, who LA faces in the first round. The Lakers took the biggest hit here, which has more to do with their performance so far in Orlando than the quality of their potential opponents.

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

1. Bucks - 63.1% (-11.1)

2. Lakers - 38.0% (-13.5)

3. Clippers - 31.9% (+10.1)

4. Raptors - 18.4% (+5.8)

5. Celtics - 13.6% (+3.6)

6. Mavericks - 11.1% (-2.1)

7. Rockets - 5.5% (+1.8)

8. Thunder - 5.3% (+1.9)

9. Jazz - 4.3% (+1.0)

10. Nuggets - 3.4% (+0.7)

11. Heat - 2.4% (+0.9)

12. Pacers - 1.2% (+0.5)

13. 76ers - 1.1% (+0.2)

14. Trail Blazers - 0.4% (+0.4)

15. Nets - 0.13% (+0.1)

16. Grizzlies - 0.118% (+0.02)

17. Magic - 0.116% (+0.1)

The Clippers are the beneficiaries of the Lakers' poor play in Orlando, bringing their odds nearly even with the season-long favorites, and they haven't even had their full team together yet, so they could be even better in the actual playoffs. Toronto and Boston saw their odds increase a little too, while Milwaukee became a little less of a sure thing, but the Bucks are still the favorites in the East.

Odds of Winning Championship

1. Bucks - 46.0% (-7.2)

2. Lakers - 15.3% (-7.8)

3. Clippers - 13.8% (+6.2)

4. Raptors - 9.8% (+4.6)

5. Celtics - 7.0% (+2.9)

6. Mavericks - 3.3% (-0.6)

7. Rockets - 1.1% (+0.4)

8. Thunder - 1.0% (+0.4)

9. Jazz - 0.8% (+0.3)

10. Heat - 0.7% (+0.4)

11. Nuggets - 0.6% (+0.2)

12. Pacers - 0.32% (+0.2)

13. 76ers - 0.29% (+0.1)

The bottom 2 teams in each conference have such small odds that I won't even include them here. The Clippers, Raptors, and Celtics all saw good increases in their chances in Orlando, while the Lakers dropped down to their tier as potential challengers to Milwaukee, who is by far the favorite to win it all. The rest of the teams on this list have a chance, but it would be a major surprise to see any of them standing alone at the end.

My Picks

First Round

(1) Bucks over (8) Magic in 4

(2) Raptors over (7) Nets in 5

(3) Celtics over (6) 76ers in 5

(5) Heat over (4) Pacers in 7

(1) Lakers over (8) Trail Blazers in 5

(2) Clippers over (7) Mavericks in 6

(6) Jazz over (3) Nuggets in 7

(5) Thunder over (4) Rockets in 7

Second Round

(1) Bucks over (5) Heat in 5

(3) Celtics over (2) Raptors in 7

(1) Lakers over (5) Thunder in 6

(2) Clippers over (6) Jazz in 5

Conference Finals

(1) Bucks over (3) Celtics in 6

(2) Clippers over (1) Lakers in 7

NBA Finals

(1) Bucks over (2) Clippers in 6

NBA Predictions - 13 Aug

 Upset picks are in italics.

Washington vs. Boston - Celtics by 11

Sacramento vs. LA Lakers - Lakers by 7.5

Dallas vs. Phoenix - Mavericks by 4.5

Milwaukee vs. Memphis - Bucks by 9

San Antonio vs. Utah - Jazz by 2.5

Portland vs. Brooklyn - Trail Blazers by 0.5

New Orleans vs. Orlando - Pelicans by 0.5

Results

NBA: 2-2 (.500) 38-38 overall (.500)

Upsets: 1-10 overall (.091)

NBA Predictions - 12 Aug

 Upset picks are in italics.

Indiana vs. Houston - Rockets by 2

Toronto vs. Philadelphia - Raptors by 4

Miami vs. Oklahoma City - Heat by 0.5

LA Clippers vs. Denver - Clippers by 4

Results

NBA: 2-5 (.286) 36-36 overall (.500)

Upsets: 0-4 (.000) 1-10 overall (.091)

NBA Predictions - 11 Aug

 Upset picks are in italics.

Brooklyn vs. Orlando - Magic by 0.5

Houston vs. San Antonio - Rockets by 4

Phoenix vs. Philadelphia - 76ers by 2

Boston vs. Memphis - Celtics by 6

Portland vs. Dallas - Mavericks by 5

New Orleans vs. Sacramento - Pelicans by 2

Milwaukee vs. Washington - Bucks by 13.5

Results

NBA: 3-2 (.600) 34-31 overall (.523)

Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 1-6 overall (.143)

NBA Predictions - 10 Aug

 Upset picks are in italics.

Oklahoma City vs. Phoenix - Thunder by 3.5

Dallas vs. Utah - Mavericks by 2.5

Toronto vs. Milwaukee - Bucks by 3.5

Indiana vs. Miami - Heat by 1

Denver vs. LA Lakers - Lakers by 4

Results

NBA: 4-3 (.571) 31-29 overall (.517)

Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 1-5 overall (.183)

NBA Predictions - 9 Aug

 Upset picks are in italics.

Washington vs. Oklahoma City - Thunder by 8

Memphis vs. Toronto - Raptors by 5.5

San Antonio vs. New Orleans - Pelicans by 1

Orlando vs. Boston - Celtics by 6

Philadelphia vs. Portland - 76ers by 2.5

Houston vs. Sacramento - Rockets by 5

Brooklyn vs. LA Clippers - Clippers by 7.5

Results

NBA: 1-4 (.200) 27-26 overall (.509)

Upsets: 1-2 (.333) 1-4 overall (.200)

NBA Predictions - 8 Aug

 Upset picks are in italics.

LA Clippers vs. Portland - Clippers by 7

Utah vs. Denver - Jazz by 0.5

LA Lakers vs. Indiana - Lakers by 5

Phoenix vs. Miami - Heat by 3.5

Milwaukee vs. Dallas - Bucks by 4.5

Results

NBA: 2-4 (.333) 26-22 overall (.542)

Upsets: 0-2 overall (.000)

NBA Predictions - 7 Aug

 Upset picks are in italics.

Utah vs. San Antonio - Jazz by 3.5

Oklahoma City vs. Memphis - Thunder by 4.5

Sacramento vs. Brooklyn - Kings by 0.5

Orlando vs. Philadelphia - 76ers by 2.5

Washington vs New Orleans - Pelicans by 5.5

Boston vs. Toronto - Raptors by 0.5

Results

NBA: 2-4 (.333) 24-18 overall (.571)

Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 0-2 overall (.000)

NBA Predictions - 6 Aug

Upset picks are in italics.

New Orleans vs. Sacramento - Pelicans by 2

Indiana vs. Phoenix - Pacers by 3

Miami vs. Milwaukee - Bucks by 6

LA Clippers vs. Dallas - Clippers by 1

Portland vs. Denver - Nuggets by 3

LA Lakers vs. Houston - Lakers by 3.5

Results

NBA: 5-1 (.833) 22-14 overall (.611)

Upsets: 0-1 overall (.000) 

NBA Predictions - 5 Aug

Upset picks are in italics.

Memphis vs. Utah - Jazz by 3.5

Philadelphia vs. Washington - 76ers by 6.5

Denver vs. San Antonio - Nuggets by 3

Oklahoma City vs. LA Lakers - Lakers by 4

Toronto vs. Orlando - Raptors by 6

Brooklyn vs. Boston - Celtics by 5.5

Results

NBA: 2-4 (.333) 17-13 overall (.567)

Upsets: 0-1 overall (.000)

NBA Predictions - 4 Aug

Upset picks are in italics.

Brooklyn vs. Milwaukee - Bucks by 10

Dallas vs. Sacramento - Mavericks by 6.5

Phoenix vs. LA Clippers - Clippers by 7.5

Orlando vs. Indiana - Pacers by 2

Boston vs. Miami - Celtics by 2

Houston vs. Portland - Rockets by 4.5

Results

NBA: 5-1 (.833) 15-9 overall (.625)

Upsets: 0-1 overall (.000)

NBA Predictions - 3 Aug

Upset picks are in italics.

Toronto vs. Miami - Raptors by 3

Denver vs. Oklahoma City - Thunder by 1

Indiana vs. Washington - Pacers by 6.5

Memphis vs. New Orleans - Pelicans by 1

San Antonio vs. Philadelphia - 76ers by 2.5

LA Lakers vs. Utah - Lakers by 4.5

Results

NBA: 3-3 (.500) 10-8 overall (.556)

Upsets: 0-1 overall (.000)

NBA Predictions - 2 Aug

Upset picks are in italics.

Washington vs. Brooklyn - Nets by 3.5

Portland vs. Boston - Celtics by 6

San Antonio vs. Memphis - Grizzlies by 0.5

Sacramento vs. Orlando - Magic by 0.5

Milwaukee vs. Houston - Bucks by 6

Dallas vs. Phoenix - Mavericks by 6.5

Results

NBA: 2-3 (.400) 7-5 overall (.583)

Upsets: 0-1 (.000)

NBA Predictions - 1 Aug

Upset picks are in italics.

Miami vs. Denver - Nuggets by 0.5

Utah vs. Oklahoma City - Thunder by 0.5

New Orleans vs. LA Clippers - Clippers by 5

Philadelphia vs. Indiana - 76ers by 0.5

LA Lakers vs. Toronto - Lakers by 2.5

Results

NBA Bubble: 5-2 (.714)