Saturday, April 26, 2014

NBA Playoff Odds - 26 Apr

After one week of playoff action, 5 underdogs are leading 2-1, which has shaken up the odds a bit. No longer are the Spurs the big favorite after being blown out by Dallas in game 2 at home, and the Pacers may not even get out of the first round. Here are each team's updated odds of advancing through each playoff round:

Odds of Winning First Round

1. Heat - 88.4% (+19.5)
2. Clippers - 87.6% (+16.9)
3. Wizards - 70.0% (+29.4)
4. Spurs - 66.6% (-21.0)
5. Hawks - 65.7% (+30.2)
6. Trail Blazers - 64.1% (+30.2)
7. Grizzlies - 58.0% (+28.2)
8. Nets - 53.5% (+34.1)
9. Raptors - 46.5% (-34.1)
10. Thunder - 42.0% (-28.2)
11. Rockets - 35.9% (-30.2)
12. Pacers - 34.3% (-30.2)
13. Mavericks - 33.4% (+21.0)
14. Bulls - 30.0% (-29.4)
15. Warriors - 12.4% (-16.9)
16. Bobcats - 11.6% (-19.5)

The only team that has yet to lose a game this postseason is the Miami Heat, who haven't lost a playoff series since the 2011 Finals. The Clippers lost a home game, but were the only team to bounce back and win a road game to retake home court so far this postseason.

Odds of Making Conference Finals

1. Clippers - 68.5% (+21.1)
2. Heat - 60.6% (+20.4)
3. Spurs - 51.1% (-19.5)
4. Wizards - 50.7% (+23.7)
5. Bulls - 21.6% (-20.8)
6. Raptors - 20.9% (-22.6)
7. Trail Blazers - 20.1% (+13.6)
8. Hawks - 15.6% (+8.4)
9. Thunder - 15.3% (-15.8)
10. Mavericks - 15.2% (+10.8)
11. Rockets - 13.6% (-4.9)
12. Nets - 13.4% (+8.3)
13. Pacers - 12.2% (-11.2)
14. Grizzlies - 10.1% (+3.5)
15. Warriors - 6.1% (-8.7)
16. Bobcats - 5.1% (-6.1)

Three of the 4 most likely conference finalists are teams I picked to be there when the playoffs started last week, with Miami in the spot I had given to Toronto.

Odds of Making NBA Finals

1. Clippers - 47.3% (+23.0)
2. Heat - 39.0% (+14.1)
3. Spurs - 27.2% (-20.6)
4. Wizards - 23.8% (+12.2)
5. Raptors - 12.6% (-14.6)
6. Bulls - 10.0% (-10.4)
7. Thunder - 7.6% (-4.2)
8. Trail Blazers - 4.7% (+3.0)
9. Nets - 4.6% (+3.1)
10. Pacers - 4.3% (-4.0)
11. Rockets - 4.0% (-2.9)
12. Hawks - 3.7% (+2.3)
13. Mavericks - 3.6% (+2.6)
14. Grizzlies - 3.3% (+1.8)
15. Warriors - 2.3% (-2.7)
16. Bobcats - 2.1% (-2.6)

The Clippers, my pre-playoff pick, are now the most likely team to represent the West in the Finals, displacing the Spurs, who are still a major threat as well. Miami has replaced Toronto as the likely East rep, which would put them in the Finals for the 4th straight season with LeBron James.

Odds of Winning NBA Championship

1. Clippers - 42.4% (+21.4)
2. Spurs - 23.0% (-19.8)
3. Heat - 8.8% (+3.9)
4. Thunder - 5.7% (-3.3)
5. Wizards - 4.1% (+2.5)
6. Trail Blazers - 2.8% (+1.8)
7. Rockets - 2.6% (-2.2)
8. Raptors - 2.3% (-2.9)
9. Mavericks - 2.2% (+2.2)
10. Grizzlies - 1.9% (+1.9)
11. Bulls - 1.7% (-1.8)
12. Warriors - 1.4% (-2.2)

The West's odds of winning the title dropped slightly to 82.0%, with Miami as the only reason for any real hope back East.

Updated Picks

Upset picks are in italics.

These picks are not meant to replace my original picks, which I still stand by, but if I had not picked until this point, these would be my choices for the remainder of the playoffs.

First Round

Hawks over Pacers in 6
Heat over Bobcats in 4
Raptors over Nets in 7
Wizards over Bulls in 6
Spurs over Mavericks in 6
Thunder over Grizzlies in 7
Clippers over Warriors in 5
Trail Blazers over Rockets in 6

I am only switching 2 choices here, taking Portland over Houston after they won 2 road games to open the series, taking away the home court advantage. I also have the Pacers losing a round earlier than I originally thought, because they have not pulled it back together for the playoffs.

Second Round

Wizards over Hawks in 5
Raptors over Heat in 7
Spurs over Trail Blazers in 5
Clippers over Thunder in 6

I'm keeping the same 4 winners in this round, with the Wizards no longer an upset now that I'm projecting them to have home court in round 2.

Conference Finals

Wizards over Raptors in 6
Spurs over Clippers in 6

I have switched both picks here, with Toronto falling after having no rest in the first two rounds, while the Spurs will have the benefit of rest after dispatching the Blazers early.

NBA Finals

Spurs over Wizards in 4

Whichever team wins the West will have no trouble with Washington, and right now that looks like the Spurs, who have the experience that the Wizards and Clippers lack.

Saturday, April 19, 2014

NBA Playoff Odds

The NBA Playoffs start today with 4 games, and there are plenty of good matchups. Will the Heat be able to 3-peat? Can anybody stop the Spurs? Can Indiana pull it all back together? The favorites are obviously last year's Finals teams, but don't underestimate some of the underdogs. I have analyzed every possible playoff series, and I am posting my odds of each team advancing through each round of the playoffs, as well as my picks to win.

Odds of Winning First Round

1. Spurs - 87.6%
2. Raptors - 80.6%
3. Clippers - 70.7%
4. Thunder - 70.2%
5. Heat - 68.9%
6. Rockets - 66.1%
7. Pacers - 64.5%
8. Bulls - 59.4%
9. Wizards - 40.6%
10. Hawks - 35.5%
11. Trail Blazers - 33.9%
12. Bobcats - 31.1%
13. Grizzlies - 29.8%
14. Warriors - 29.3%
15. Nets - 19.4%
16. Mavericks - 12.4%

San Antonio was dominant over the second half of the season, finishing with the league's best record and making them a nightmare for any opponent, and I don't expect to see Dallas able to beat their instate rivals. Brooklyn ended the season on a slide, while Toronto played well down the stretch to grab the 3-seed, so though the experts see the Nets advancing, I see a possible Raptor sweep.

Odds of Making Conference Finals

1. Spurs - 70.6%
2. Clippers - 47.4%
3. Raptors - 43.5%
4. Bulls - 42.4%
5. Heat - 40.2%
6. Thunder - 31.1%
7. Wizards - 27.0%
8. Pacers - 23.4%
9. Rockets - 18.5%
10. Warriors - 14.8%
11. Bobcats - 11.2%
12. Hawks - 7.2%
13. Grizzlies - 6.6%
14. Trail Blazers - 6.5%
15. Nets - 5.1%
16. Mavericks - 4.4%

The Clippers have been looking strong lately, and even without home court against the Thunder, don't be surprised to see the upstarts pull the upset and set up a showdown with the juggernaut Spurs for a trip to the Finals.

Odds of Making NBA Finals

1. Spurs - 47.8%
2. Raptors - 27.2%
3. Heat - 24.9%
4. Clippers - 24.3%
5. Bulls - 20.4%
6. Thunder - 11.8%
7. Wizards - 11.6%
8. Pacers - 8.3%
9. Rockets - 6.9%
10. Warriors - 5.0%
11. Bobcats - 4.7%
12. Trail Blazers - 1.7%
13. Nets - 1.50%
14. Grizzlies - 1.48%
15. Hawks - 1.4%
16. Mavericks - 1.0%

Miami may have coasted through much of the regular season, but you can't count out a team that has been to three straight NBA Finals, and they are right back in the mix this year, with their core players all back and healthy and home court advantage against anybody in the East but the sinking Pacers. Will the Big Three make it four in a row in the East?

Odds of Winning NBA Championship

1. Spurs - 42.8%
2. Clippers - 21.0%
3. Thunder - 9.0%
4. Raptors - 5.2%
5. Heat - 4.9%
6. Rockets - 4.8%
7. Warriors - 3.6%
8. Bulls - 3.5%
9. Wizards - 1.6%
10. Trail Blazers - 1.0%

The other 6 teams have virtually no shot at winning the title, even the East #1-seed Pacers, who can't ride their record all the way to a title, even if they can win a series or two in the extremely weak East. The odds of the champion coming out of the West are 83.5%, with only a couple teams in the East with any chance of changing that.

My Picks

Upset picks are in italics.
(Regular season series in parentheses)

First Round

Pacers over Hawks in 6 (Tied 2-2)
Heat over Bobcats in 6 (Miami 4-0)
Raptors over Nets in 4 (Tied 2-2)
Wizards over Bulls in 7 (Washington 2-1)
Spurs over Mavericks in 4 (San Antonio 4-0)
Thunder over Grizzlies in 5 (Oklahoma City 3-1)
Clippers over Warriors in 5 (Tied 2-2)
Rockets over Trail Blazers in 6 (Houston 3-1)

Second Round

Wizards over Pacers in 6 (Indiana 2-1)
Raptors over Heat in 7 (Miami 4-0)
Spurs over Rockets in 5 (Houston 4-0)
Clippers over Thunder in 6 (Tied 2-2)

Conference Finals

Raptors over Wizards in 6 (Toronto 3-1)
Clippers over Spurs in 7 (San Antonio 2-1)

NBA Finals

Clippers over Raptors in 4 (Los Angeles 2-0)

You read that right. I am picking the NBA title to return to Los Angeles, but this time with a red, white, and blue banner hanging in the Staples Center rather than the usual purple and gold. Chris Paul will be the Finals MVP, another team will be able to remove its name from the list of teams to never win a title.

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

NBA Predictions - 16 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

Chicago at Charlotte - Bobcats by 2
Indiana at Orlando - Pacers by 2
Dallas at Memphis - Grizzlies by 4
Atlanta at Milwaukee - Hawks by 3
Utah at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 12
Houston at New Orleans - Rockets by 5
Detroit at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 14
LA Lakers at San Antonio - Spurs by 18
Washington at Boston - Wizards by 3
Brooklyn at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 3
Philadelphia at Miami - Heat by 18
Toronto at New York - Raptors by 1
LA Clippers at Portland - Trail Blazers by 1
Golden State at Denver - Warriors by 6
Phoenix at Sacramento - Suns by 1

Prediction Results

NBA: 1-1 (.500) 809-406 overall (.666)

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

NBA Predictions - 15 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

New York at Brooklyn - Nets by 4
Denver at LA Clippers - Clippers by 12

Prediction Results

NBA: 4-6 (.400) 808-405 overall (.666)
Upsets: 1-3 (.250) 118-115 overall (.506)

Monday, April 14, 2014

NBA Predictions - 14 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

Boston at Philadelphia - Celtics by 3
Milwaukee at Toronto - Raptors by 12
Miami at Washington - Wizards by 1
Charlotte at Atlanta - Hawks by 1
Orlando at Chicago - Bulls by 11
San Antonio at Houston - Spurs by 1
Oklahoma City at New Orleans - Thunder by 4
LA Lakers at Utah - Jazz by 5
Memphis at Phoenix - Suns by 5
Minnesota at Golden State - Warriors by 4

Prediction Results

NBA: 5-2 (.714) 804-399 overall (.668)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 117-112 overall (.511)

Sunday, April 13, 2014

NBA Predictions - 13 Apr

Upset picks are in italics.

Oklahoma City at Indiana - Thunder by 3
Toronto at Detroit - Raptors by 4
Orlando at Brooklyn - Nets by 9
Chicago at New York - Knicks by 1
Golden State at Portland - Trail Blazers by 2
Minnesota at Sacramento - Timberwolves by 3
Memphis at LA Lakers - Grizzlies by 6

Prediction Results

 NBA: 6-2 (.750) 799-397 overall (.668)

Saturday, April 12, 2014

NBA Rankings - 12 Apr

With only 4 days left in the regular season, there are still 3 playoff spots open, with 5 teams still in contention to grab them. Phoenix, Dallas, and Memphis, the 3 teams going for 2 spots in the West, happen to have a round robin this week, and any team that loses twice will most likely be out. If all three win once against the others, Phoenix will be the odd team out, thanks to a 1-4 record against the other two so far this season, so the Suns may need to go 3-0 just to make the playoffs. Here are my full current rankings:

Rank
LW
Team
Record
Rating
Predic
Ch
Seed
1
1
San Antonio
62-18
-8.49753
63-19

1W
2
2
LA Clippers
55-24
-6.60435
57-25
-1
3W
3
3
Oklahoma City
58-21
-5.80789
60-22
+1
2W
4
6
Golden State
49-30
-4.33492
51-31

6W
5
4
Houston
52-27
-4.31461
54-28
-1
4W
6
5
Miami
54-25
-4.13606
56-26

1E
7
8
Portland
52-28
-2.60923
53-29

5W
8
9
Dallas
48-32
-2.35329
49-33

7W
9
13
Chicago
47-32
-2.3307
49-33
+2
3E
10
10
Memphis
47-32
-2.2729
49-33
+1
8W
11
7
Toronto
46-33
-2.15125
48-34
-1
4E
12
11
Phoenix
47-32
-1.95349
49-33
+1

13
12
Minnesota
40-39
-1.40082
42-40


14
16
Charlotte
40-39
-0.26155
42-40
+1
7E
15
14
Washington
41-38
-0.07589
43-39
-1
6E
16
15
Brooklyn
43-36
0.10929
45-37

5E
17
17
Indiana
54-26
1.032625
55-27
-1
2E
18
18
New York
34-45
1.109701
35-47


19
20
Atlanta
36-43
2.386141
38-44
+2
8E
20
21
Cleveland
32-48
2.886051
33-49
-1

21
22
Denver
35-44
2.890603
36-46
+1

22
19
Sacramento
27-52
3.150539
28-54
-1

23
23
New Orleans
32-47
4.357665
33-49
-1

24
24
Detroit
29-51
5.839729
29-53


25
25
Orlando
23-56
6.146827
24-58
+1

26
27
Boston
24-55
6.434302
25-57


27
26
LA Lakers
25-54
7.642185
26-56


28
28
Utah
24-55
7.745239
25-57
-1

29
29
Milwaukee
15-64
8.373287
16-66


30
30
Philadelphia
17-62
12.30255
18-64



This week's hottest team was Chicago, which won three times to extend their win streak to 7 games, allowing them to pass Toronto for the 3rd seed in the East. They won 2 road games this week that were likely losses, in Washington and Minnesota, but won both by over 15 points, and they could repeat the feat this week in New York and Charlotte.

Atlanta was also hot this week, right when they had to be, because they are still fighting to hold on to the last playoff spot in the East, with New York surging as well. Atlanta won big in Indiana to open the week, and closed it out with another big win in Brooklyn, which kept them 2 games ahead of the Knicks with 3 games left. It's not a must-win against Miami tonight, but it sure would be nice to lock up that spot tonight.

A 2-1 week doesn't usually qualify as cold, but Toronto's two wins this week came against the two worst teams in the league, by an average of only 7.5 points, and they followed those up with a home loss to New York, which is fighting for its playoff life. That loss may have cost the Raptors the 3-seed, meaning they'll have to face Brooklyn in the first round rather than the Wizards or Bobcats.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Sacramento at LA Clippers - Clippers by 13
Philadelphia at Charlotte - Bobcats by 16
Milwaukee at Washington - Wizards by 12
Miami at Atlanta - Heat by 1
Boston at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 7
New Orleans at Houston - Rockets by 10
Phoenix at Dallas - Mavericks by 6
Utah at Denver - Nuggets by 10

Prediction Results

NBA: 9-4 (.692) 793-395 overall (.668)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 116-112 overall (.509)