NBA Playoff Odds

The NBA Playoffs start today with 4 games, and there are plenty of good matchups. Will the Heat be able to 3-peat? Can anybody stop the Spurs? Can Indiana pull it all back together? The favorites are obviously last year's Finals teams, but don't underestimate some of the underdogs. I have analyzed every possible playoff series, and I am posting my odds of each team advancing through each round of the playoffs, as well as my picks to win.

Odds of Winning First Round

1. Spurs - 87.6%
2. Raptors - 80.6%
3. Clippers - 70.7%
4. Thunder - 70.2%
5. Heat - 68.9%
6. Rockets - 66.1%
7. Pacers - 64.5%
8. Bulls - 59.4%
9. Wizards - 40.6%
10. Hawks - 35.5%
11. Trail Blazers - 33.9%
12. Bobcats - 31.1%
13. Grizzlies - 29.8%
14. Warriors - 29.3%
15. Nets - 19.4%
16. Mavericks - 12.4%

San Antonio was dominant over the second half of the season, finishing with the league's best record and making them a nightmare for any opponent, and I don't expect to see Dallas able to beat their instate rivals. Brooklyn ended the season on a slide, while Toronto played well down the stretch to grab the 3-seed, so though the experts see the Nets advancing, I see a possible Raptor sweep.

Odds of Making Conference Finals

1. Spurs - 70.6%
2. Clippers - 47.4%
3. Raptors - 43.5%
4. Bulls - 42.4%
5. Heat - 40.2%
6. Thunder - 31.1%
7. Wizards - 27.0%
8. Pacers - 23.4%
9. Rockets - 18.5%
10. Warriors - 14.8%
11. Bobcats - 11.2%
12. Hawks - 7.2%
13. Grizzlies - 6.6%
14. Trail Blazers - 6.5%
15. Nets - 5.1%
16. Mavericks - 4.4%

The Clippers have been looking strong lately, and even without home court against the Thunder, don't be surprised to see the upstarts pull the upset and set up a showdown with the juggernaut Spurs for a trip to the Finals.

Odds of Making NBA Finals

1. Spurs - 47.8%
2. Raptors - 27.2%
3. Heat - 24.9%
4. Clippers - 24.3%
5. Bulls - 20.4%
6. Thunder - 11.8%
7. Wizards - 11.6%
8. Pacers - 8.3%
9. Rockets - 6.9%
10. Warriors - 5.0%
11. Bobcats - 4.7%
12. Trail Blazers - 1.7%
13. Nets - 1.50%
14. Grizzlies - 1.48%
15. Hawks - 1.4%
16. Mavericks - 1.0%

Miami may have coasted through much of the regular season, but you can't count out a team that has been to three straight NBA Finals, and they are right back in the mix this year, with their core players all back and healthy and home court advantage against anybody in the East but the sinking Pacers. Will the Big Three make it four in a row in the East?

Odds of Winning NBA Championship

1. Spurs - 42.8%
2. Clippers - 21.0%
3. Thunder - 9.0%
4. Raptors - 5.2%
5. Heat - 4.9%
6. Rockets - 4.8%
7. Warriors - 3.6%
8. Bulls - 3.5%
9. Wizards - 1.6%
10. Trail Blazers - 1.0%

The other 6 teams have virtually no shot at winning the title, even the East #1-seed Pacers, who can't ride their record all the way to a title, even if they can win a series or two in the extremely weak East. The odds of the champion coming out of the West are 83.5%, with only a couple teams in the East with any chance of changing that.

My Picks

Upset picks are in italics.
(Regular season series in parentheses)

First Round

Pacers over Hawks in 6 (Tied 2-2)
Heat over Bobcats in 6 (Miami 4-0)
Raptors over Nets in 4 (Tied 2-2)
Wizards over Bulls in 7 (Washington 2-1)
Spurs over Mavericks in 4 (San Antonio 4-0)
Thunder over Grizzlies in 5 (Oklahoma City 3-1)
Clippers over Warriors in 5 (Tied 2-2)
Rockets over Trail Blazers in 6 (Houston 3-1)

Second Round

Wizards over Pacers in 6 (Indiana 2-1)
Raptors over Heat in 7 (Miami 4-0)
Spurs over Rockets in 5 (Houston 4-0)
Clippers over Thunder in 6 (Tied 2-2)

Conference Finals

Raptors over Wizards in 6 (Toronto 3-1)
Clippers over Spurs in 7 (San Antonio 2-1)

NBA Finals

Clippers over Raptors in 4 (Los Angeles 2-0)

You read that right. I am picking the NBA title to return to Los Angeles, but this time with a red, white, and blue banner hanging in the Staples Center rather than the usual purple and gold. Chris Paul will be the Finals MVP, another team will be able to remove its name from the list of teams to never win a title.