Upset picks are in italics.
NBA
Orlando at Washington - Magic by 0.5
Portland at New York - Trail Blazers by 3
Minnesota at Milwaukee - Bucks by 17.5
Phoenix at LA Lakers - Lakers by 11
NCAA
Furman at VMI - Paladins by 6
Fresno State at (13) San Diego State - Aztecs by 18
East Carolina at (24) Wichita State - Shockers by 20
South Dakota at Fort Wayne - Mastodons by 3.5
Citadel at Samford - Samford Bulldogs by 5.5
Wofford at East Tennessee State - Buccaneers by 12
South Florida at SMU - Mustangs by 10.5
UConn at Cincinnati - Bearcats by 1.5
Mercer at UNC Greensboro - Spartans by 20.5
Wyoming at Boise State - Broncos by 18.5
Marquette at Creighton - Bluejays by 2
New Mexico at San Jose State - Lobos by 5.5
Colorado State at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 9.5
Utah State at UNLV - Aggies by 4
Results
NBA: 6-1 (.857) 331-172 overall (.658)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 36-42 overall (.462)
NCAA: 12-3 (.800) 1985-520 overall (.792)
Upsets: 105-131 overall (.445)
Tuesday, December 31, 2019
NFL Playoff Odds - 2020
After a final weekend that had over a dozen crazy playoff scenarios, very little actually changed in week 17, with Kansas City and New England swapping spots while the rest remained exactly where they had been. I've broken down every team's odds of beating any other team and where that game would be played, along with the odds of that matchup taking place, to determine each team's odds of advancing through each playoff round and winning the Super Bowl. Here is the full breakdown:
Odds of Winning Wild Card Round
1. Patriots - 67.2%
2. Saints - 61.9%
3. Texans - 51.6%
4. Eagles - 51.3%
5. Seahawks - 48.7%
6. Bills - 48.4%
7. Vikings - 38.1%
8. Titans - 32.8%
Home field advantage is very important here, especially in the 4-5 matchups, where the road team is the better team but must face the opposing crowd.
Odds of Reaching Conference Championship
1. Ravens - 82.2%
2. 49ers - 72.2%
3. Chiefs - 62.7%
4. Packers - 51.7%
5. Saints - 33.4%
6. Patriots - 28.6%
7. Seahawks - 15.9%
8. Eagles - 14.4%
9. Vikings - 12.5%
10. Bills - 10.5%
11. Texans - 9.2%
12. Titans - 6.8%
The Saints odds are pretty decent here, despite the fact that they would have to go through Green Bay to get there. New Orleans better by quite a bit, so they would be favored in that game. The Seahawks also have a better chance of winning 2 than the Eagles, even though the Eagles have a slightly better chance of winning this weekend.
Odds of Reaching Super Bowl
1. Ravens - 57.2%
2. 49ers - 49.4%
3. Chiefs - 24.5%
4. Packers - 18.9%
5. Saints - 15.4%
6. Patriots - 10.7%
7. Vikings - 6.2%
8. Seahawks - 5.6%
9. Eagles - 4.4%
10. Bills - 2.9%
11. Titans - 2.5%
12. Texans - 2.2%
Both 6 seeds move up a little on this list, because they would have already beaten the top seeds in the divisional round in order to be in the conference title game, so they would have a less formidable opponent standing in the way at this point than the teams above them.
Odds of Winning Super Bowl
1. Ravens - 37.7%
2. 49ers - 23.0%
3. Chiefs - 13.3%
4. Saints - 6.4%
5. Packers - 6.0%
6. Patriots - 5.7%
7. Vikings - 2.2%
8. Seahawks - 1.7%
9. Bills - 1.13%
10. Eagles - 1.12%
11. Titans - 1.0%
12. Texans - 0.8%
The Ravens, who haven't lost since September, are the clear favorites to win the Super Bowl, but it is far from a runaway. 6 teams have a legitimate shot, and none of the other 6 should be counted out.
My Picks
Wild Card
Patriots 28, Titans 21
Bills 21, Texans 20
Saints 28, Vikings 22
Seahawks 26, Eagles 24
Division
Ravens 27, Bills 12
Chiefs 23, Patriots 20
49ers 32, Seahawks 22
Saints 25, Packers 24
Conference
Ravens 24, Chiefs 17
49ers 32, Saints 27
Super Bowl
Ravens 28, 49ers 24
Odds of Winning Wild Card Round
1. Patriots - 67.2%
2. Saints - 61.9%
3. Texans - 51.6%
4. Eagles - 51.3%
5. Seahawks - 48.7%
6. Bills - 48.4%
7. Vikings - 38.1%
8. Titans - 32.8%
Home field advantage is very important here, especially in the 4-5 matchups, where the road team is the better team but must face the opposing crowd.
Odds of Reaching Conference Championship
1. Ravens - 82.2%
2. 49ers - 72.2%
3. Chiefs - 62.7%
4. Packers - 51.7%
5. Saints - 33.4%
6. Patriots - 28.6%
7. Seahawks - 15.9%
8. Eagles - 14.4%
9. Vikings - 12.5%
10. Bills - 10.5%
11. Texans - 9.2%
12. Titans - 6.8%
The Saints odds are pretty decent here, despite the fact that they would have to go through Green Bay to get there. New Orleans better by quite a bit, so they would be favored in that game. The Seahawks also have a better chance of winning 2 than the Eagles, even though the Eagles have a slightly better chance of winning this weekend.
Odds of Reaching Super Bowl
1. Ravens - 57.2%
2. 49ers - 49.4%
3. Chiefs - 24.5%
4. Packers - 18.9%
5. Saints - 15.4%
6. Patriots - 10.7%
7. Vikings - 6.2%
8. Seahawks - 5.6%
9. Eagles - 4.4%
10. Bills - 2.9%
11. Titans - 2.5%
12. Texans - 2.2%
Both 6 seeds move up a little on this list, because they would have already beaten the top seeds in the divisional round in order to be in the conference title game, so they would have a less formidable opponent standing in the way at this point than the teams above them.
Odds of Winning Super Bowl
1. Ravens - 37.7%
2. 49ers - 23.0%
3. Chiefs - 13.3%
4. Saints - 6.4%
5. Packers - 6.0%
6. Patriots - 5.7%
7. Vikings - 2.2%
8. Seahawks - 1.7%
9. Bills - 1.13%
10. Eagles - 1.12%
11. Titans - 1.0%
12. Texans - 0.8%
The Ravens, who haven't lost since September, are the clear favorites to win the Super Bowl, but it is far from a runaway. 6 teams have a legitimate shot, and none of the other 6 should be counted out.
My Picks
Wild Card
Patriots 28, Titans 21
Bills 21, Texans 20
Saints 28, Vikings 22
Seahawks 26, Eagles 24
Division
Ravens 27, Bills 12
Chiefs 23, Patriots 20
49ers 32, Seahawks 22
Saints 25, Packers 24
Conference
Ravens 24, Chiefs 17
49ers 32, Saints 27
Super Bowl
Ravens 28, 49ers 24
Monday, December 30, 2019
Basketball Predictions - 31 Dec
Upset picks are in italics.
NBA
Philadelphia at Indiana - Pacers by 0.5
Boston at Charlotte - Celtics by 11
LA Clippers at Sacramento - Clippers by 7
Golden State at San Antonio - Spurs by 7
Cleveland at Toronto - Raptors by 13.5
Denver at Houston - Rockets by 2.5
Dallas at Oklahoma City - Mavericks by 4
NCAA
Georgia Tech at (18) Florida State - Seminoles by 13.5
Hartford at Bowling Green - Falcons by 11
Temple at UCF - Owls by 0.5
George Washington at Vermont - Catamounts by 17
Northern Iowa at Illinois State - Panthers by 7.5
Morgan State at CSU Northridge - Matadors by 5.5
Miami at Clemson - Tigers by 1
UC Riverside at Air Force - Falcons by 0.5
Evansville at Missouri State - Bears by 9.5
Georgetown at Providence - Friars by 0.5
Boston College at (2) Duke - Blue Devils by 23
Rider at Wisconsin - Badgers by 11.5
Florida A&M at Iowa State - Cyclones by 25.5
Drake at Bradley - Braves by 7.5
(11) Butler at St. John's - Bulldogs by 1.5
Results
NBA: 2-4 (.333) 325-171 overall (.655)
Upsets: 34-42 overall (.447)
NCAA: 34-16 (.680) 1973-517 overall (.792)
Upsets: 1-4 (.200) 105-131 overall (.445)
NBA
Philadelphia at Indiana - Pacers by 0.5
Boston at Charlotte - Celtics by 11
LA Clippers at Sacramento - Clippers by 7
Golden State at San Antonio - Spurs by 7
Cleveland at Toronto - Raptors by 13.5
Denver at Houston - Rockets by 2.5
Dallas at Oklahoma City - Mavericks by 4
NCAA
Georgia Tech at (18) Florida State - Seminoles by 13.5
Hartford at Bowling Green - Falcons by 11
Temple at UCF - Owls by 0.5
George Washington at Vermont - Catamounts by 17
Northern Iowa at Illinois State - Panthers by 7.5
Morgan State at CSU Northridge - Matadors by 5.5
Miami at Clemson - Tigers by 1
UC Riverside at Air Force - Falcons by 0.5
Evansville at Missouri State - Bears by 9.5
Georgetown at Providence - Friars by 0.5
Boston College at (2) Duke - Blue Devils by 23
Rider at Wisconsin - Badgers by 11.5
Florida A&M at Iowa State - Cyclones by 25.5
Drake at Bradley - Braves by 7.5
(11) Butler at St. John's - Bulldogs by 1.5
Results
NBA: 2-4 (.333) 325-171 overall (.655)
Upsets: 34-42 overall (.447)
NCAA: 34-16 (.680) 1973-517 overall (.792)
Upsets: 1-4 (.200) 105-131 overall (.445)
NCAA Basketball Rankings - 30 Dec - Part 2
201
|
194
|
Prairie View A&M
|
-0.807
|
3
|
9
|
9
|
267
|
202
|
192
|
Omaha
|
-0.794
|
8
|
8
|
55
|
262
|
203
|
205
|
Bowling
Green
|
-0.661
|
8
|
4
|
324
|
176
|
204
|
175
|
Loyola Marymount
|
-0.639
|
6
|
8
|
199
|
229
|
205
|
201
|
San
Diego
|
-0.633
|
8
|
8
|
139
|
231
|
206
|
213
|
UMKC
|
-0.525
|
7
|
7
|
77
|
234
|
207
|
199
|
American
|
-0.51
|
4
|
7
|
88
|
238
|
208
|
184
|
Ohio
|
-0.493
|
8
|
5
|
294
|
193
|
209
|
209
|
UAB
|
-0.485
|
9
|
4
|
326
|
175
|
210
|
207
|
Oakland
|
-0.433
|
6
|
8
|
101
|
240
|
211
|
177
|
Hawaii
|
-0.403
|
9
|
5
|
286
|
239
|
212
|
183
|
Rice
|
-0.341
|
8
|
5
|
226
|
203
|
213
|
216
|
New
Hampshire
|
-0.294
|
6
|
6
|
260
|
134
|
214
|
215
|
McNeese
|
-0.225
|
5
|
7
|
308
|
149
|
215
|
203
|
Eastern
Michigan
|
-0.16
|
9
|
3
|
317
|
142
|
216
|
214
|
Lipscomb
|
0.011
|
5
|
8
|
110
|
227
|
217
|
208
|
South
Dakota
|
0.024
|
9
|
6
|
273
|
188
|
218
|
231
|
Youngstown St
|
0.147
|
8
|
6
|
276
|
179
|
219
|
218
|
Columbia
|
0.212
|
4
|
9
|
29
|
273
|
220
|
219
|
UC Davis
|
0.317
|
5
|
10
|
86
|
222
|
221
|
230
|
Green
Bay
|
0.324
|
5
|
9
|
53
|
260
|
222
|
247
|
Fairfield
|
0.436
|
4
|
7
|
66
|
269
|
223
|
225
|
North
Florida
|
0.462
|
7
|
7
|
149
|
224
|
224
|
224
|
Austin Peay
|
0.559
|
6
|
6
|
262
|
194
|
225
|
248
|
Canisius
|
0.598
|
5
|
6
|
180
|
198
|
226
|
233
|
Long Island
|
0.643
|
5
|
8
|
89
|
252
|
227
|
223
|
Texas
Southern
|
0.727
|
3
|
9
|
2
|
319
|
228
|
217
|
California
|
0.816
|
6
|
7
|
28
|
309
|
229
|
236
|
South
Alabama
|
0.996
|
7
|
6
|
331
|
200
|
230
|
220
|
James Madison
|
1.022
|
7
|
5
|
186
|
245
|
231
|
222
|
East
Carolina
|
1.026
|
6
|
7
|
228
|
244
|
232
|
235
|
Monmouth
|
1.028
|
6
|
5
|
74
|
263
|
233
|
234
|
Quinnipiac
|
1.063
|
5
|
5
|
238
|
211
|
234
|
232
|
Lamar
|
1.088
|
7
|
6
|
323
|
155
|
235
|
240
|
Evansville
|
1.269
|
9
|
4
|
269
|
220
|
236
|
246
|
CSU Bakersfield
|
1.294
|
6
|
9
|
223
|
226
|
237
|
229
|
Air
Force
|
1.329
|
6
|
7
|
266
|
221
|
238
|
252
|
Milwaukee
|
1.401
|
5
|
8
|
200
|
248
|
239
|
241
|
UT
San Antonio
|
1.402
|
6
|
7
|
307
|
213
|
240
|
253
|
Jacksonville St
|
1.408
|
5
|
8
|
237
|
210
|
241
|
245
|
Bethune-Cookman
|
1.462
|
6
|
8
|
213
|
187
|
242
|
251
|
Brown
|
1.462
|
5
|
6
|
49
|
293
|
243
|
238
|
Fort
Wayne
|
1.577
|
7
|
8
|
251
|
192
|
244
|
237
|
Saint Peter's
|
1.7
|
4
|
6
|
167
|
232
|
245
|
228
|
Drexel
|
1.755
|
7
|
7
|
164
|
274
|
246
|
243
|
Princeton
|
1.775
|
4
|
8
|
72
|
292
|
247
|
227
|
Arkansas
State
|
1.789
|
10
|
3
|
325
|
204
|
248
|
263
|
Morehead State
|
1.793
|
6
|
7
|
284
|
199
|
249
|
256
|
Montana
|
1.989
|
5
|
7
|
105
|
285
|
250
|
226
|
Coppin State
|
2.063
|
4
|
10
|
8
|
299
|
251
|
254
|
Troy
|
2.073
|
5
|
8
|
296
|
216
|
252
|
250
|
UMass Lowell
|
2.084
|
6
|
9
|
225
|
258
|
253
|
249
|
Cornell
|
2.135
|
1
|
10
|
26
|
296
|
254
|
260
|
Samford
|
2.201
|
6
|
8
|
250
|
215
|
255
|
255
|
Miami
(OH)
|
2.294
|
6
|
6
|
275
|
246
|
256
|
261
|
Gardner-Webb
|
2.361
|
4
|
8
|
79
|
280
|
257
|
264
|
Albany
|
2.409
|
6
|
8
|
208
|
251
|
258
|
262
|
Grambling
|
2.436
|
6
|
7
|
267
|
197
|
259
|
258
|
Lehigh
|
2.487
|
3
|
9
|
60
|
284
|
260
|
265
|
West Michigan
|
2.614
|
7
|
6
|
230
|
254
|
261
|
270
|
Manhattan
|
2.643
|
4
|
5
|
136
|
256
|
262
|
268
|
The Citadel
|
2.701
|
6
|
6
|
299
|
218
|
263
|
276
|
George
Washington
|
2.774
|
6
|
6
|
295
|
271
|
264
|
259
|
New Orleans
|
2.81
|
4
|
8
|
169
|
261
|
265
|
269
|
Saint
Joseph's
|
2.902
|
3
|
9
|
16
|
331
|
266
|
257
|
VMI
|
3.007
|
5
|
9
|
340
|
185
|
267
|
275
|
North
Alabama
|
3.025
|
5
|
8
|
196
|
241
|
268
|
239
|
Alcorn State
|
3.034
|
4
|
7
|
257
|
214
|
269
|
271
|
Illinois
State
|
3.09
|
5
|
7
|
198
|
286
|
270
|
244
|
Idaho State
|
3.097
|
4
|
6
|
297
|
205
|
271
|
242
|
Iona
|
3.155
|
2
|
5
|
69
|
290
|
272
|
290
|
Florida Atlantic
|
3.164
|
8
|
5
|
352
|
168
|
273
|
272
|
UT
Rio Grande
|
3.175
|
4
|
8
|
298
|
228
|
274
|
274
|
Bucknell
|
3.194
|
4
|
9
|
24
|
318
|
275
|
267
|
Utah
Valley
|
3.21
|
6
|
9
|
306
|
201
|
276
|
283
|
Robert Morris
|
3.255
|
4
|
9
|
130
|
259
|
277
|
294
|
Mt.
St. Mary's
|
3.263
|
4
|
9
|
150
|
276
|
278
|
282
|
Texas A&M
|
3.414
|
5
|
5
|
172
|
314
|
279
|
273
|
Merrimack
|
3.484
|
6
|
7
|
146
|
266
|
280
|
289
|
Binghamton
|
3.579
|
6
|
7
|
210
|
268
|
281
|
291
|
Seattle
|
3.634
|
7
|
8
|
305
|
250
|
282
|
281
|
Southern Miss
|
3.65
|
4
|
9
|
161
|
297
|
283
|
284
|
Weber
State
|
3.703
|
4
|
8
|
265
|
275
|
284
|
280
|
UMBC
|
3.818
|
6
|
8
|
263
|
249
|
285
|
266
|
Portland
|
3.849
|
8
|
7
|
342
|
230
|
286
|
277
|
Louisiana
|
4.037
|
5
|
8
|
224
|
283
|
287
|
285
|
Fordham
|
4.047
|
5
|
6
|
348
|
264
|
288
|
293
|
Western Illinois
|
4.08
|
4
|
7
|
349
|
225
|
289
|
286
|
Longwood
|
4.459
|
5
|
8
|
312
|
219
|
290
|
299
|
CSU Fullerton
|
4.47
|
4
|
10
|
107
|
303
|
291
|
292
|
UL
Monroe
|
4.524
|
4
|
7
|
309
|
279
|
292
|
288
|
SE Missouri St
|
4.533
|
4
|
9
|
192
|
277
|
293
|
302
|
Morgan
State
|
4.69
|
6
|
8
|
235
|
281
|
294
|
278
|
CSU Northridge
|
4.703
|
3
|
11
|
30
|
323
|
295
|
279
|
Wagner
|
4.873
|
3
|
8
|
75
|
307
|
296
|
295
|
N Carolina Cent
|
4.874
|
3
|
10
|
58
|
300
|
297
|
297
|
Niagara
|
5.022
|
2
|
9
|
13
|
324
|
298
|
298
|
UT Martin
|
5.116
|
4
|
7
|
98
|
310
|
299
|
308
|
San
Jose State
|
5.153
|
4
|
10
|
57
|
333
|
300
|
314
|
Hartford
|
5.175
|
7
|
7
|
332
|
247
|
301
|
300
|
St.
Francis (BKN)
|
5.259
|
6
|
6
|
291
|
255
|
302
|
312
|
Charleston South
|
5.316
|
6
|
6
|
177
|
291
|
303
|
313
|
S
Carolina Upstate
|
5.512
|
5
|
8
|
160
|
295
|
304
|
304
|
Grand Canyon
|
5.536
|
5
|
9
|
207
|
317
|
305
|
301
|
Southern
|
5.697
|
3
|
10
|
48
|
308
|
306
|
303
|
Army
|
5.754
|
5
|
6
|
304
|
272
|
307
|
318
|
UNC
Wilmington
|
5.859
|
5
|
9
|
256
|
298
|
308
|
296
|
Florida A&M
|
5.872
|
1
|
9
|
5
|
336
|
309
|
287
|
Long
Beach St
|
5.902
|
4
|
11
|
25
|
339
|
310
|
305
|
NJIT
|
5.909
|
3
|
10
|
87
|
305
|
311
|
321
|
Cal
Poly
|
5.918
|
2
|
11
|
350
|
335
|
312
|
307
|
Fairleigh Dickinson
|
6.007
|
2
|
9
|
68
|
312
|
313
|
324
|
Mercer
|
6.049
|
6
|
8
|
338
|
265
|
314
|
320
|
UIC
|
6.233
|
6
|
8
|
248
|
306
|
315
|
310
|
Norfolk
State
|
6.26
|
3
|
11
|
254
|
282
|
316
|
306
|
Texas A&M-CC
|
6.579
|
4
|
9
|
302
|
289
|
317
|
316
|
Jackson
State
|
6.598
|
3
|
9
|
81
|
301
|
318
|
322
|
Elon
|
6.635
|
4
|
9
|
314
|
287
|
319
|
315
|
Stetson
|
6.647
|
5
|
9
|
231
|
302
|
320
|
317
|
N Carolina A&T
|
6.714
|
3
|
11
|
20
|
341
|
321
|
323
|
Hampton
|
6.917
|
5
|
8
|
316
|
288
|
322
|
311
|
IUPUI
|
6.982
|
4
|
10
|
163
|
313
|
323
|
319
|
Central
Arkansas
|
7.072
|
3
|
10
|
21
|
343
|
324
|
309
|
Mid Tennessee
|
7.193
|
4
|
9
|
221
|
315
|
325
|
330
|
Eastern
Kentucky
|
7.92
|
3
|
10
|
194
|
316
|
326
|
327
|
Cleveland State
|
7.946
|
4
|
10
|
96
|
332
|
327
|
325
|
Alabama
A&M
|
7.962
|
3
|
8
|
35
|
338
|
328
|
336
|
Northwestern St
|
8.101
|
4
|
7
|
334
|
294
|
329
|
326
|
Wyoming
|
8.171
|
5
|
9
|
313
|
325
|
330
|
329
|
Alabama State
|
8.273
|
1
|
12
|
3
|
347
|
331
|
333
|
Detroit
Mercy
|
8.359
|
2
|
11
|
54
|
340
|
332
|
331
|
Tennessee Tech
|
8.702
|
3
|
10
|
147
|
329
|
333
|
328
|
Denver
|
8.833
|
4
|
11
|
197
|
327
|
334
|
338
|
Idaho
|
9.018
|
4
|
8
|
329
|
304
|
335
|
334
|
Houston
Baptist
|
9.078
|
0
|
10
|
1
|
352
|
336
|
335
|
South Carolina St
|
9.138
|
4
|
7
|
219
|
322
|
337
|
339
|
Presbyterian
|
9.342
|
3
|
10
|
206
|
321
|
338
|
337
|
Marist
|
9.503
|
2
|
8
|
171
|
326
|
339
|
332
|
Maine
|
9.599
|
3
|
10
|
82
|
337
|
340
|
343
|
Florida Gulf Coast
|
10.11
|
3
|
12
|
245
|
330
|
341
|
341
|
SE
Louisiana
|
10.69
|
3
|
9
|
292
|
320
|
342
|
340
|
Maryland-E Shore
|
10.76
|
1
|
14
|
6
|
349
|
343
|
342
|
Incarnate
Word
|
10.76
|
3
|
9
|
337
|
311
|
344
|
344
|
Ark-Pine Bluff
|
11.12
|
1
|
12
|
7
|
348
|
345
|
347
|
Holy
Cross
|
11.27
|
1
|
12
|
145
|
344
|
346
|
349
|
SIU-Edwardsville
|
11.53
|
3
|
10
|
244
|
328
|
347
|
345
|
Delaware
State
|
11.62
|
1
|
12
|
119
|
345
|
348
|
346
|
Chicago State
|
11.82
|
4
|
10
|
279
|
334
|
349
|
348
|
High
Point
|
12.34
|
3
|
9
|
220
|
342
|
350
|
350
|
Kennesaw St
|
12.83
|
1
|
12
|
32
|
351
|
351
|
352
|
Howard
|
14.1
|
2
|
11
|
201
|
346
|
352
|
353
|
Central Conn
|
14.19
|
1
|
12
|
125
|
350
|
353
|
351
|
Miss
Valley St
|
14.81
|
0
|
12
|
4
|
353
|
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