NFL Playoff Odds

The NFL Playoffs are starting today, with 14 teams vying for the chance to win the Super Bowl next month, and there are a lot of teams with a really good chance of winning it all, not including the defending champs, so are also in the field but have a smaller chance. Here are my odds for each team to advance through each round of the playoffs, along with my picks for how everything will turn out over the next month:

Odds of Winning Wild Card

(5) Rams - 79.8%

(2) Patriots - 64.7%

(5) Texans - 63.8%

(3) Jaguars - 63.3%

(6) 49ers - 53.9%

(2) Bears - 53.5%

(7) Packers - 46.5%

(3) Eagles - 46.1%

(6) Bills - 36.7%

(4) Steelers - 36.2%

(7) Chargers - 35.3%

(4) Panthers - 20.2%

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

(1) Seahawks - 72.0%

(1) Broncos - 54.2%

(5) Rams - 50.5%

(3) Jaguars - 35.2%

(5) Texans - 34.2%

(2) Patriots - 32.5%

(2) Bears - 22.6%

(3) Eagles - 20.8%

(6) 49ers - 18.7%

(6) Bills - 17.1%

(7) Chargers - 14.0%

(4) Steelers - 12.8%

(7) Packers - 9.6%

(4) Panthers - 5.8%

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

(1) Seahawks - 48.8%

(5) Rams - 27.7%

(1) Broncos - 25.6%

(3) Jaguars - 21.2%

(5) Texans - 18.9%

(2) Patriots - 17.0%

(6) Bills - 7.9%

(6) 49ers - 7.7%

(3) Eagles - 6.0%

(2) Bears - 5.7%

(4) Steelers - 4.8%

(7) Chargers - 4.6%

(7) Packers - 2.9%

(4) Panthers - 1.2%

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

(1) Seahawks - 32.0%

(5) Rams - 17.9%

(3) Jaguars - 9.8%

(1) Broncos - 9.0%

(5) Texans - 8.7%

(2) Patriots - 6.7%

(6) 49ers - 3.9%

(6) Bills - 3.0%

(3) Eagles - 2.6%

(2) Bears - 2.2%

(7) Chargers - 1.36%

(4) Steelers - 1.35%

(7) Packers - 1.1%

(4) Panthers - 0.4%

The NFC West has over a 50% chance of winning this year's Super Bowl, with the two best teams in the league for most of the season, who played twice this year, each game with a final margin of fewer than 3 points. 

My Picks

Wild Card

(2) Patriots over (7) Chargers

(3) Jaguars over (6) Bills

(5) Texans over (4) Steelers

(2) Bears over (7) Packers

(3) Eagles over (6) 49ers

(5) Rams over (4) Panthers

Divisional

(1) Broncos over (5) Texans

(2) Patriots over (3) Jaguars

(1) Seahawks over (5) Rams

(2) Bears over (3) Eagles

Conference

(2) Patriots over (1) Broncos

(1) Seahawks over (2) Bears

Super Bowl

(1) Seahawks over (2) Patriots

NFL Playoff Odds - Update

Only 1 road team won in the wild card round of the playoffs, but there were actually a few upsets, including both 4-seeds winning despite being underdogs. Now that the bracket is set for the remainder of the postseason, it's easier to determine all possible future matchups, and this is my update of each remaining team's odds of advancing through each remaining round and winning the Super Bowl, with change from last week in parentheses:

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

(1) Lions - 72.3% (+4.4)

(2) Eagles - 68.8% (+37.5)

(1) Chiefs - 61.3% (+6.3)

(2) Bills - 52.0% (+21.9)

(3) Ravens - 48.0% (+7.4)

(4) Texans - 38.7% (+25.5)

(4) Rams - 31.2% (+19.3)

(6) Commanders - 27.7% (+12.9)

The teams that were not expected to win saw the biggest rise in their odds, while the Ravens barely moved at all, since they ended up with the toughest possible opponent, and the only possible road game they could have played. Kansas City saw a bigger bump than Detroit thanks to Houston's upset giving them a more favorable matchup.

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

(1) Lions - 48.4% (+2.9)

(2) Bills - 32.3% (+15.0)

(2) Eagles - 30.8% (+17.1)

(3) Ravens - 30.5% (+6.0)

(1) Chiefs - 26.2% (-0.3)

(6) Commanders - 11.4% (+6.0)

(4) Texans - 11.0% (+6.6)

(4) Rams - 9.3% (+6.3)

The only team whose odds dropped here are the Chiefs, who will have to face either the Ravens or the Bills in the next round, which is tough either way, even at home. The Eagles' odds are helped by facing the Rams this weekend, with a chance of the Commanders next week.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

(1) Lions - 29.7% (+1.0)

(2) Bills - 16.2% (+8.1)

(2) Eagles - 16.1% (+8.8)

(3) Ravens - 15.7% (+3.1)

(1) Chiefs - 10.5% (-0.4)

(6) Commanders - 4.8% (+2.5)

(4) Texans - 3.6% (+2.3)

(4) Rams - 3.4% (+2.2)

Buffalo and Philly saw their odds of winning it all double after advancing past tough wild card foes. Kansas City saw a slight drop here as well, but you can never count out a team with Patrick Mahomes at QB.

NFL Playoff Odds - 2025

The NFL Playoffs begin today, and even though I didn't have time to post updated rankings throughout this season, I still kept track of all of the data, and I've put that all together to determine each team's odds of advancing through the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl, taking home field advantage and all potential matchups into account. Here is how it breaks down, along with my picks for how it will all turn out:

Odds of Winning Wild Card Round

(3) Ravens - 69.6%

(5) Vikings - 61.2%

(5) Chargers - 59.6%

(3) Buccaneers - 59.4%

(2) Bills - 56.7%

(2) Eagles - 53.4%

(7) Packers - 46.6%

(7) Broncos - 43.3%

(6) Commanders - 40.6%

(4) Texans - 40.4%

(4) Rams - 38.8%

(6) Steelers - 30.4%

Odds of Reaching Conference Championships

(1) Lions - 67.9%

(1) Chiefs - 55.0%

(3) Ravens - 40.6%

(2) Eagles - 31.3%

(2) Bills - 30.1%

(3) Buccaneers - 30.0%

(5) Vikings - 27.1%

(5) Chargers - 26.9%

(7) Broncos - 21.4%

(7) Packers - 17.1%

(6) Commanders - 14.8%

(4) Texans - 13.2%

(6) Steelers - 12.8%

(4) Rams - 11.9%

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

(1) Lions - 45.5%

(1) Chiefs - 26.5%

(3) Ravens - 24.5%

(2) Bills - 17.3%

(2) Eagles - 13.7%

(5) Chargers - 12.3%

(3) Buccaneers - 12.0%

(5) Vikings - 11.1%

(7) Broncos - 10.0%

(7) Packers - 9.1%

(6) Commanders - 5.4%

(6) Steelers - 5.1%

(4) Texans - 4.4%

(4) Rams - 3.2%

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

(1) Lions - 28.7%

(3) Ravens - 12.6%

(1) Chiefs - 10.9%

(2) Bills - 8.1%

(2) Eagles - 7.3%

(3) Buccaneers - 6.0%

(5) Vikings - 5.5%

(5) Chargers - 5.1%

(7) Packers - 4.8%

(7) Broncos - 4.3%

(6) Commanders - 2.3%

(6) Steelers - 1.8%

(4) Texans - 1.3%

(4) Rams - 1.2%

My Picks

Wild Card

(2) Bills over (7) Broncos

(3) Ravens over (6) Steelers

(5) Chargers over (4) Texans

(7) Packers over (2) Eagles

(3) Buccaneers over (6) Commanders

(5) Vikings over (4) Rams

Divisional

(1) Chiefs over (5) Chargers

(2) Bills over (3) Ravens

(1) Lions over (7) Packers

(3) Buccaneers over (5) Vikings

Conference

(2) Bills over (1) Chiefs

(1) Lions over (3) Buccaneers

Super Bowl

(1) Lions over (2) Bills

NFL Playoff Odds - 2024

The NFL Playoffs start today, and I have compiled every result from the regular season, and calculated any possible playoff scenario to determine each team's odds of advancing through each round of the playoffs and of eventually winning this year's Super Bowl. Baltimore and San Francisco have the best overall odds, partly thanks to a bye week, and partly due to their great seasons, but any of these 14 teams has at least a tiny chance. Here are the breakdowns by round:

Odds of Winning Wild Card Round

(2) Cowboys - 70.1%

(2) Bills - 68.3%

(3) Lions - 60.0%

(4) Buccaneers - 58.2%

(3) Chiefs - 56.9%

(5) Browns - 50.8%

(4) Texans - 49.2%

(6) Dolphins - 43.1%

(5) Eagles - 41.8%

(6) Rams - 40.0%

(7) Steelers - 31.7%

(7) Packers - 29.9%

Odds of Reaching Conference Championships

(1) Ravens - 77.7%

(1) 49ers - 77.4%

(2) Cowboys - 46.5%

(2) Bills - 42.7%

(3) Lions - 27.4%

(3) Chiefs - 26.5%

(5) Browns - 18.1%

(4) Buccaneers - 17.3%

(4) Texans - 14.5%

(6) Dolphins - 14.2%

(6) Rams - 13.1%

(5) Eagles - 11.5%

(7) Packers - 6.7%

(7) Steelers - 6.2%

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

(1) Ravens - 56.5%

(1) 49ers - 53.8%

(2) Cowboys - 20.3%

(2) Bills - 16.5%

(3) Lions - 10.1%

(3) Chiefs - 9.0%

(5) Browns - 6.2%

(6) Dolphins - 5.4%

(4) Buccaneers - 5.2%

(6) Rams - 4.7%

(4) Texans - 4.1%

(5) Eagles - 3.2%

(7) Packers - 2.8%

(7) Steelers - 2.4%

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

(1) Ravens - 32.8%

(1) 49ers - 30.4%

(2) Cowboys - 9.8%

(2) Bills - 7.4%

(3) Lions - 4.2%

(3) Chiefs - 3.6%

(5) Browns - 2.3%

(6) Dolphins - 2.1%

(6) Rams - 1.74%

(4) Buccaneers - 1.72%

(4) Texans - 1.3%

(5) Eagles - 0.98%

(7) Packers - 0.94%

(7) Steelers - 0.8%

My Picks

Wild Card

(2) Bills over (7) Steelers

(6) Dolphins over (3) Chiefs

(5) Browns over (4) Texans

(2) Cowboys over (7) Packers

(3) Lions over (6) Rams

(5) Eagles over (4) Buccaneers

Divisional

(1) Ravens over (6) Dolphins

(2) Bills over (5) Browns

(1) 49ers over (5) Eagles

(2) Cowboys over (3) Lions

Conference

(1) Ravens over (2) Bills

(1) 49ers over (2) Cowboys

Super Bowl

(1) 49ers over (1) Ravens

NFL Playoff Odds - 2023

The NFL playoffs begin tomorrow with the Wild Card round, which will last through Monday, with Kansas City and Philadelphia sitting at home enjoying a bye week. I've broken down the odds of any matchup happening at any point in the playoffs, along with each team's odds of beating any other, to determine each team's chances of advancing through each round and winning the Super Bowl.

Odds of Winning Wild Card Round

(2) Bills - 73.8%

(2) 49ers - 73.0%

(5) Cowboys - 63.63%

(3) Bengals - 63.58%

(4) Jaguars - 59.8%

(3) Vikings - 56.8%

(6) Giants - 43.2%

(5) Chargers - 40.2%

(6) Ravens - 36.42%

(4) Buccaneers - 36.37%

(7) Seahawks - 27.0%

(7) Dolphins - 26.2%

The Cowboys are the only lower seed who is favored to win, but there should be a couple of other close games that could go either way.

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

(1) Eagles - 67.2%

(1) Chiefs - 65.7%

(2) 49ers - 49.9%

(2) Bills - 49.3%

(5) Cowboys - 30.6%

(3) Bengals - 29.5%

(4) Jaguars - 20.0%

(3) Vikings - 19.5%

(6) Ravens - 15.1%

(6) Giants - 13.7%

(5) Chargers - 11.4%

(4) Buccaneers - 11.1%

(7) Dolphins - 9.0%

(7) Seahawks - 8.0%

The top seeds in each conference are the most likely to get this far, with the 1 seeds having the advantage of only needing one game to do it. 

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

(1) Eagles - 39.2%

(1) Chiefs - 32.8%

(2) Bills - 31.4%

(2) 49ers - 27.2%

(3) Bengals - 15.9%

(5) Cowboys - 15.1%

(3) Vikings - 7.4%

(4) Jaguars - 7.0%

(6) Ravens - 5.7%

(6) Giants - 4.4%

(7) Dolphins - 3.6%

(4) Buccaneers - 3.5%

(5) Chargers - 3.4%

(7) Seahawks - 3.2%

Every team has a chance at making the Super Bowl, but there is a clear hierarchy, with 2 favorites from each conference, along with 1 other team from each side with a good chance. The remaining 8 teams are somewhat longshots, but they wouldn't be here if they didn't have a chance.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

(2) Bills - 19.3%

(1) Eagles - 19.2%

(1) Chiefs - 17.3%

(2) 49ers - 14.0%

(3) Bengals - 8.6%

(5) Cowboys - 7.1%

(4) Jaguars - 2.9%

(3) Vikings - 2.60%

(6) Ravens - 2.58%

(7) Dolphins - 1.5%

(6) Giants - 1.4%

(5) Chargers - 1.2%

(4) Buccaneers - 1.05%

(7) Seahawks - 1.03%

Buffalo's has been the best team in my rankings all season long, and with a guarantee that they won't play a road game, just like the 1 seeds, they are the slight favorite to take home the trophy this year.

My Picks

Wild Card

(2) Bills over (7) Dolphins by 10

(3) Bengals over (6) Ravens by 7

(5) Chargers over (4) Jaguars by 3

(2) 49ers over (7) Seahawks by 8

(6) Giants over (3) Vikings by 6

(5) Cowboys over (4) Buccaneers by 3

Divisional

(1) Chiefs over (5) Chargers by 8

(2) Bills over (3) Bengals by 4

(1) Eagles over (6) Giants by 6

(5) Cowboys over (2) 49ers by 1

Conference

(2) Bills over (1) Chiefs by 3

(5) Cowboys over (1) Eagles by 4

Super Bowl

(2) Bills over (5) Cowboys by 7

NFL Playoff Odds - Divisional Round

Only 1 of the 4 home teams, Houston, won during Wild Card weekend, which created a big shift in the playoff odds after 1 weekend of playoff action. I've adjusted each team's rating based on last weekend's action, and reanalyzed the possible future matchups to determine each team's current odds of reaching and winning each remaining round, and I've included the change from last week's odds in parentheses:

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

1. Ravens - 77.1% (-5.1)
2. Chiefs - 75.1% (+12.4)
3. 49ers - 65.5% (-6.7)
4. Packers - 57.2% (+5.5)
5. Seahawks - 42.8% (+26.9)
6. Vikings - 34.5% (+22.0)
7. Texans - 24.9% (+15.7)
8. Titans - 22.9% (+16.1)

The Ravens and 49ers' odds both took a hit because of the 6-seeds winning, because both 6 seeds were better than any of the 4 or 5 seeds, who would have faced the top seeds if the sixes had lost. The same thing caused the 2-seeds' odds to rise, because they get to face the weaker competition rather than the tougher 3 seeds.

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. Ravens - 55.2% (-2.0)
2. 49ers - 46.8% (-2.6)
3. Chiefs - 30.4% (+5.9)
4. Packers - 20.8% (+1.9)
5. Vikings - 17.3% (+11.1)
6. Seahawks - 15.1% (+9.5)
7. Titans - 8.8% (+6.3)
8. Texans - 5.6% (+3.4)

The Ravens and 49ers are still the most likely to reach the Super Bowl, but both saw their paths get tougher as a result of last weekend's games. The Chiefs saw the biggest change among the teams who didn't play, because their path to the Super Bowl changed from going through the Patriots and Ravens to the Texans and Ravens, which appears much easier.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Ravens - 36.7% (-1.0)
2. 49ers - 22.3% (-0.7)
3. Chiefs - 16.8% (+3.5)
4. Packers - 6.8% (+0.8)
5. Vikings - 6.6% (+4.4)
6. Seahawks - 4.8% (+3.1)
7. Titans - 3.9% (+2.9)
8. Texans - 2.0% (+1.2)

The Ravens are still the best team in the league and the most likely to win it all, but Kansas City and Minnesota saw big jumps in their odds this weekend, as did the Seahawks and Titans, and nobody can be counted out. Whoever can win 3 games wins, and any of these teams is capable.

My Picks

Division

(1) Ravens over (6) Titans
(2) Chiefs over (4) Texans
(1) 49ers over (6) Vikings
(5) Seahawks over (2) Packers

Conference

(1) Ravens over (2) Chiefs
(1) 49ers over (5) Seahawks

Super Bowl

(1) Ravens over (1) 49ers

NFL Playoff Odds - 2020

After a final weekend that had over a dozen crazy playoff scenarios, very little actually changed in week 17, with Kansas City and New England swapping spots while the rest remained exactly where they had been. I've broken down every team's odds of beating any other team and where that game would be played, along with the odds of that matchup taking place, to determine each team's odds of advancing through each playoff round and winning the Super Bowl. Here is the full breakdown:

Odds of Winning Wild Card Round

1. Patriots - 67.2%
2. Saints - 61.9%
3. Texans - 51.6%
4. Eagles - 51.3%
5. Seahawks - 48.7%
6. Bills - 48.4%
7. Vikings - 38.1%
8. Titans - 32.8%

Home field advantage is very important here, especially in the 4-5 matchups, where the road team is the better team but must face the opposing crowd.

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

1. Ravens - 82.2%
2. 49ers - 72.2%
3. Chiefs - 62.7%
4. Packers - 51.7%
5. Saints - 33.4%
6. Patriots - 28.6%
7. Seahawks - 15.9%
8. Eagles - 14.4%
9. Vikings - 12.5%
10. Bills - 10.5%
11. Texans - 9.2%
12. Titans - 6.8%

The Saints odds are pretty decent here, despite the fact that they would have to go through Green Bay to get there. New Orleans better by quite a bit, so they would be favored in that game. The Seahawks also have a better chance of winning 2 than the Eagles, even though the Eagles have a slightly better chance of winning this weekend.

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. Ravens - 57.2%
2. 49ers - 49.4%
3. Chiefs - 24.5%
4. Packers - 18.9%
5. Saints - 15.4%
6. Patriots - 10.7%
7. Vikings - 6.2%
8. Seahawks - 5.6%
9. Eagles - 4.4%
10. Bills - 2.9%
11. Titans - 2.5%
12. Texans - 2.2%

Both 6 seeds move up a little on this list, because they would have already beaten the top seeds in the divisional round in order to be in the conference title game, so they would have a less formidable opponent standing in the way at this point than the teams above them.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Ravens - 37.7%
2. 49ers - 23.0%
3. Chiefs - 13.3%
4. Saints - 6.4%
5. Packers - 6.0%
6. Patriots - 5.7%
7. Vikings - 2.2%
8. Seahawks - 1.7%
9. Bills - 1.13%
10. Eagles - 1.12%
11. Titans - 1.0%
12. Texans - 0.8%

The Ravens, who haven't lost since September, are the clear favorites to win the Super Bowl, but it is far from a runaway. 6 teams have a legitimate shot, and none of the other 6 should be counted out.

My Picks

Wild Card

Patriots 28, Titans 21
Bills 21, Texans 20
Saints 28, Vikings 22
Seahawks 26, Eagles 24

Division

Ravens 27, Bills 12
Chiefs 23, Patriots 20
49ers 32, Seahawks 22
Saints 25, Packers 24

Conference

Ravens 24, Chiefs 17
49ers 32, Saints 27

Super Bowl

Ravens 28, 49ers 24

NFL Playoff Predictions - 2019

With the NFL season over and the playoff field set, it's time to check out every team's odds of advancing through the playoffs and winning the ultimate prize, and I will also be making my own picks. Out of the 12 teams to make the playoffs, the only one to end the regular season with a loss was New Orleans, who did not play their starters in the season's final game. I have entered every score from the season into my formula, then analyzed every possible matchup to determine the odds of every team advancing through each round.

Odds of Winning Wild Card Game

1. Bears - 64.8%
2. Texans - 58.6%
3. Ravens - 57.6%
4. Seahawks - 51.4%
5. Cowboys - 48.6%
6. Chargers - 42.4%
7. Colts - 41.4%
8. Eagles - 35.2%

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

1. Saints - 71.3%
2. Chiefs - 63.27%
3. Rams - 63.26%
4. Patriots - 56.3%
5. Bears - 25.5%
6. Texans - 24.7%
7. Ravens - 24.4%
8. Chargers - 17.6%
9. Seahawks - 17.2%
10. Colts - 13.8%
11. Cowboys - 12.7%
12. Eagles - 10.0%

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. Saints - 44.1%
2. Chiefs - 40.4%
3. Rams - 30.2%
4. Patriots - 24.9%
5. Bears - 11.50%
6. Ravens - 11.47%
7. Texans - 11.0%
8. Chargers - 8.1%
9. Seahawks - 6.6%
10. Colts - 5.3%
11. Cowboys - 3.9%
12. Eagles - 3.2%

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Saints - 25.2%
2. Chiefs - 20.6%
3. Rams - 16.3%
4. Patriots - 11.0%
5. Bears - 5.7%
6. Ravens - 5.4%
7. Texans - 4.7%
8. Chargers - 3.7%
9. Seahawks - 3.0%
10. Colts - 2.2%
11. Cowboys - 1.5%
12. Eagles - 1.3%

My Picks

Wild Card

(6) Colts over (3) Texans
(5) Chargers over (4) Ravens
(3) Bears over (6) Eagles
(5) Seahawks over (4) Cowboys 

Divisional

(1) Chiefs over (6) Colts
(5) Chargers over (2) Patriots
(1) Saints over (5) Seahawks
(2) Rams over (3) Bears

Conference Championships

(1) Chiefs over (5) Chargers
(1) Saints over (2) Rams

Super Bowl

(1) Saints over (1) Chiefs

Updated NFL Playoff Odds

Two underdogs won during wild card weekend, and the Patriots were one of the biggest benefactors, with the Tennessee Titans coming to town instead of the Kansas City Chiefs, who beat the defending champs to open the season. I've included last weekend's results and updated the odds of each of the remaining 8 teams advancing through each of the remaining rounds and winning the Super Bowl:

Odds of Making Conference Championship

1. Patriots - 82.2% (+5.7)
2. Eagles - 61.5% (+0.1)
3. Vikings - 58.1% (-2.9)
4. Steelers - 55.9% (-1.3)
5. Jaguars - 44.1% (+9.6)
6. Saints - 41.9% (+13.1)
7. Falcons - 38.5% (+25.7)
8. Titans - 17.8% (+12.0)

Odds of Making Super Bowl

1. Patriots - 54.9% (+3.4)
2. Eagles - 33.2% (-1.4)
3. Vikings - 31.1% (-0.9)
4. Steelers - 22.4% (-0.7)
5. Saints - 21.8% (+8.4)
6. Jaguars - 18.0% (+2.5)
7. Falcons - 13.8% (+9.4)
8. Titans - 4.8% (+3.3)

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Patriots - 27.6% (+1.7)
2. Vikings - 19.3% (-0.8)
3. Eagles - 17.4% (-1.3)
4. Saints - 11.8% (+4.5)
5. Steelers - 8.9% (-0.3)
6. Jaguars - 7.3% (+0.9)
7. Falcons - 6.6% (+4.6)
8. Titans - 1.1% (+0.8)

My Picks

Divisional

(1) Patriots over (5) Titans by 14
(3) Jaguars over (2) Steelers by 1.5
(1) Eagles over (6) Falcons by 4.5
(4) Saints over (2) Vikings by 0.5

Conference Championships

(1) Patriots over (3) Jaguars by 6.5
(4) Saints over (1) Eagles by 2

Super Bowl

(4) Saints over (1) Patriots by 3.5

NFL Playoff Odds - 2018

The NFL Playoffs open this weekend with 4 wild card games, with 3 NFC teams featuring quarterbacks who have played in the Super Bowl, while the AFC field this week has never been there. I've broken down the odds of any team beating any other, which field they would play on, and the odds of that matchup occurring to determine each team's odds of advancing through each round and eventually winning the Super Bowl:

Wild Card Odds

1. Jaguars - 76.6%
2. Chiefs - 70.0%
3. Saints - 66.5%
4. Rams - 63.4%
5. Falcons - 36.6%
6. Panthers - 33.5%
7. Titans - 30.0%
8. Bills - 23.4%

Odds of Winning Divisional Round

1. Patriots - 76.5%
2. Eagles - 61.4%
3. Vikings - 61.0%
4. Steelers - 57.2%
5. Jaguars - 34.5%
6. Saints - 28.8%
7. Rams - 24.9%
8. Chiefs - 22.2%
9. Falcons - 12.8%
10. Panthers - 11.2%
11. Titans - 5.8%
12. Bills - 3.8%

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. Patriots - 51.5%
2. Eagles - 34.6%
3. Vikings - 32.0%
4. Steelers - 23.1%
5. Jaguars - 15.5%
6. Saints - 13.4%
7. Rams - 12.0%
8. Chiefs - 8.5%
9. Falcons - 4.4%
10. Panthers - 4.1%
11. Titans - 1.5%
12. Bills - 0.9%

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Patriots - 25.9%
2. Vikings - 20.1%
3. Eagles - 18.7%
4. Steelers - 9.2%
5. Saints - 7.3%
6. Jaguars - 6.4%
7. Rams - 6.2%
8. Chiefs - 3.0%
9. Falcons - 2.0%
10. Panthers - 1.8%
11. Titans - 0.3%
12. Bills - 0.2%

The defending champs have the best odds of winning it all this year, which would be the first time a team successfully defended their title since the Patriots did it 13 years ago. The Vikings are attempting to become the first team ever to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium, and they are the second most likely NFC team to reach the big game and the most likely NFC team to win it, thanks to home field advantage.

My Picks

Wild Card

(3) Jaguars over (6) Bills by 11
(4) Chiefs over (5) Titans by 8
(3) Rams over (6) Falcons by 5
(4) Saints over (5) Panthers by 7

Divisional
(1) Patriots over (4) Chiefs by 9
(3) Jaguars over (2) Steelers by 2
(4) Saints over (1) Eagles by 2
(2) Vikings over (3) Rams by 4

Conference Championships

(1) Patriots over (3) Jaguars by 6
(4) Saints over (2) Vikings by 1

Super Bowl

(4) Saints over (1) Patriots by 3

NFL Rankings - 10 Oct

There is no battle for #1 in the NFL this week, with the same team owning the best record, highest average margin of victory, and strength of schedule. There are plenty of great battles looming for divisions and playoff spots, with 3 teams projected to finish with 10 wins without making the playoffs. Here are my full current rankings and playoff picks:

				Rec		ProjRec
TW	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	MOV	SOS	Seed
1	1	Kansas City	-15.54	5	0	15	1	1	1	A1
2	9	Jacksonville	-10.12	3	2	13	3	2	10	A2
3	2	Philadelphia	-6.706	4	1	12	4	3	13	N1
4	10	Houston	-6.034	2	3	11	5	16	2	A5
5	7	New England	-5.53	3	2	10	6	14	3	A3
6	3	Washington	-5.056	2	2	10	6	17	4	N5
7	8	New Orleans	-4.859	2	2	10	6	5	8
8	4	Buffalo	-4.655	3	2	10	6	10	7	A6
9	5	Denver	-3.348	3	1	10	6	8	20
10	11	Carolina	-3.149	4	1	11	5	12	11	N2
11	12	Atlanta	-2.819	3	1	10	6	11	15	N6
12	13	Detroit	-1.201	3	2	10	6	6	23
13	19	Green Bay	-0.718	4	1	10	6	7	24	N3
14	6	Oakland	0.1763	2	3	7	9	20	9
15	18	Pittsburgh	0.5257	3	2	9	7	13	22
16	27	Baltimore	1.021	3	2	9	7	18	18	A4
17	26	Cincinnati	1.1684	2	3	8	8	19	19
18	16	Minnesota	1.2419	3	2	9	7	15	21
19	14	LA Chargers	1.3582	1	4	6	10	24	5
20	15	NY Jets	2.8902	3	2	7	9	22	16
21	20	Tennessee	3.1144	2	3	9	7	25	6
22	25	Seattle	4.2433	3	2	8	8	4	29	N4
23	22	Tampa Bay	4.4851	2	2	6	10	21	25
24	17	LA Rams	4.6088	3	2	8	8	9	31
25	21	Dallas	6.1616	2	3	6	10	23	26
26	24	Miami	6.4379	2	2	5	11	27	12
27	23	NY Giants	8.1321	0	5	4	12	28	14
28	28	Chicago	9.8383	1	4	4	12	30	17
29	29	Arizona	14.69	2	3	5	11	29	28
30	31	Cleveland	14.941	0	5	2	14	31	27
31	30	San Francisco	16.365	0	5	2	14	26	30
32	32	Indianapolis	21.304	2	3	2	14	32	32

Playoff Picks

Wild Card

(6) Bills over (3) Patriots
(5) Texans over (4) Ravens
(6) Falcons over (3) Packers
(5) Redskins over (4) Seahawks

Divisional

(1) Chiefs over (6) Bills
(2) Jaguars over (5) Texans
(1) Eagles over (6) Falcons
(5) Redskins over (2) Panthers

Conference Championships

(1) Chiefs over (2) Jaguars
(1) Eagles over (5) Redskins

Super Bowl

(1) Chiefs over (1) Eagles