Only 1 road team won in the wild card round of the playoffs, but there were actually a few upsets, including both 4-seeds winning despite being underdogs. Now that the bracket is set for the remainder of the postseason, it's easier to determine all possible future matchups, and this is my update of each remaining team's odds of advancing through each remaining round and winning the Super Bowl, with change from last week in parentheses:
Odds of Reaching Conference Championship
(1) Lions - 72.3% (+4.4)
(2) Eagles - 68.8% (+37.5)
(1) Chiefs - 61.3% (+6.3)
(2) Bills - 52.0% (+21.9)
(3) Ravens - 48.0% (+7.4)
(4) Texans - 38.7% (+25.5)
(4) Rams - 31.2% (+19.3)
(6) Commanders - 27.7% (+12.9)
The teams that were not expected to win saw the biggest rise in their odds, while the Ravens barely moved at all, since they ended up with the toughest possible opponent, and the only possible road game they could have played. Kansas City saw a bigger bump than Detroit thanks to Houston's upset giving them a more favorable matchup.
Odds of Reaching Super Bowl
(1) Lions - 48.4% (+2.9)
(2) Bills - 32.3% (+15.0)
(2) Eagles - 30.8% (+17.1)
(3) Ravens - 30.5% (+6.0)
(1) Chiefs - 26.2% (-0.3)
(6) Commanders - 11.4% (+6.0)
(4) Texans - 11.0% (+6.6)
(4) Rams - 9.3% (+6.3)
The only team whose odds dropped here are the Chiefs, who will have to face either the Ravens or the Bills in the next round, which is tough either way, even at home. The Eagles' odds are helped by facing the Rams this weekend, with a chance of the Commanders next week.
Odds of Winning Super Bowl
(1) Lions - 29.7% (+1.0)
(2) Bills - 16.2% (+8.1)
(2) Eagles - 16.1% (+8.8)
(3) Ravens - 15.7% (+3.1)
(1) Chiefs - 10.5% (-0.4)
(6) Commanders - 4.8% (+2.5)
(4) Texans - 3.6% (+2.3)
(4) Rams - 3.4% (+2.2)
Buffalo and Philly saw their odds of winning it all double after advancing past tough wild card foes. Kansas City saw a slight drop here as well, but you can never count out a team with Patrick Mahomes at QB.
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