NFL Playoff Odds - 2025

The NFL Playoffs begin today, and even though I didn't have time to post updated rankings throughout this season, I still kept track of all of the data, and I've put that all together to determine each team's odds of advancing through the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl, taking home field advantage and all potential matchups into account. Here is how it breaks down, along with my picks for how it will all turn out:

Odds of Winning Wild Card Round

(3) Ravens - 69.6%

(5) Vikings - 61.2%

(5) Chargers - 59.6%

(3) Buccaneers - 59.4%

(2) Bills - 56.7%

(2) Eagles - 53.4%

(7) Packers - 46.6%

(7) Broncos - 43.3%

(6) Commanders - 40.6%

(4) Texans - 40.4%

(4) Rams - 38.8%

(6) Steelers - 30.4%

Odds of Reaching Conference Championships

(1) Lions - 67.9%

(1) Chiefs - 55.0%

(3) Ravens - 40.6%

(2) Eagles - 31.3%

(2) Bills - 30.1%

(3) Buccaneers - 30.0%

(5) Vikings - 27.1%

(5) Chargers - 26.9%

(7) Broncos - 21.4%

(7) Packers - 17.1%

(6) Commanders - 14.8%

(4) Texans - 13.2%

(6) Steelers - 12.8%

(4) Rams - 11.9%

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

(1) Lions - 45.5%

(1) Chiefs - 26.5%

(3) Ravens - 24.5%

(2) Bills - 17.3%

(2) Eagles - 13.7%

(5) Chargers - 12.3%

(3) Buccaneers - 12.0%

(5) Vikings - 11.1%

(7) Broncos - 10.0%

(7) Packers - 9.1%

(6) Commanders - 5.4%

(6) Steelers - 5.1%

(4) Texans - 4.4%

(4) Rams - 3.2%

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

(1) Lions - 28.7%

(3) Ravens - 12.6%

(1) Chiefs - 10.9%

(2) Bills - 8.1%

(2) Eagles - 7.3%

(3) Buccaneers - 6.0%

(5) Vikings - 5.5%

(5) Chargers - 5.1%

(7) Packers - 4.8%

(7) Broncos - 4.3%

(6) Commanders - 2.3%

(6) Steelers - 1.8%

(4) Texans - 1.3%

(4) Rams - 1.2%

My Picks

Wild Card

(2) Bills over (7) Broncos

(3) Ravens over (6) Steelers

(5) Chargers over (4) Texans

(7) Packers over (2) Eagles

(3) Buccaneers over (6) Commanders

(5) Vikings over (4) Rams

Divisional

(1) Chiefs over (5) Chargers

(2) Bills over (3) Ravens

(1) Lions over (7) Packers

(3) Buccaneers over (5) Vikings

Conference

(2) Bills over (1) Chiefs

(1) Lions over (3) Buccaneers

Super Bowl

(1) Lions over (2) Bills