NFL Preseason Rankings

The NFL returns tomorrow with the defending champion Eagles hosting their rivals, the Dallas Cowboys, but the Eagles are not my pick to win the title this year. After working through all of the roster changes, as well as this season's schedule, I've projected how good each team will be, and how many wins that will translate to this season. Here are my full preseason rankings, as well as my picks for the playoffs:

				Actual		Proj
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	Seed
1	1	Detroit	-14.85			13	4	N1
2	3	Baltimore	-13.7			13	4	A1
3	2	Philadelphia	-12.38			13	4	N3
4	4	Buffalo	-9.778			13	4	A2
5	6	Tampa Bay	-9.109			12	5	N4
6	14	Cincinnati	-7.88			11	6	A5
7	9	Kansas City	-7.877			11	6	A3
8	18	San Francisco	-7.293			13	4	N2
9	5	Green Bay	-6.777			10	7	N5
10	7	Minnesota	-6.461			10	7	N6
11	10	Washington	-3.469			9	8
12	11	LA Chargers	-3.026			10	7	A6
13	13	Arizona	-2.173			10	7	N7
14	15	LA Rams	-1.584			9	8
15	8	Denver	-0.314			9	8
16	21	Miami	0.3367			9	8	A7
17	17	Houston	0.7078			8	9	A4
18	16	Seattle	1.5617			8	9
19	19	Atlanta	1.6371			8	9
20	25	Dallas	2.17			7	10
21	12	Pittsburgh	2.58			7	10
22	26	Jacksonville	5.5648			7	10
23	22	Indianapolis	5.7952			7	10
24	20	Chicago	6.2826			5	12
25	27	Las Vegas	7.5522			6	11
26	24	New Orleans	9.2763			6	11
27	23	NY Jets	9.674			5	12
28	29	New England	10.12			6	11
29	28	NY Giants	10.98			3	14
30	30	Tennessee	11.801			5	12
31	31	Cleveland	13.806			3	14
32	32	Carolina	15.011			3	14

Playoff Picks

Wild Card

(2) Bills over (7) Dolphins

(3) Chiefs over (6) Chargers

(5) Bengals over (4) Texans

(2) 49ers over (7) Cardinals

(3) Eagles over (6) Vikings

(4) Buccaneers over (5) Packers

Divisional

(1) Ravens over (5) Bengals

(2) Bills over (3) Chiefs

(1) Lions over (4) Buccaneers

(3) Eagles over (2) 49ers

Conference

(1) Ravens over (2) Bills

(1) Lions over (3) Eagles

Super Bowl

(1) Lions over (1) Ravens

The Lions will not only reach the Super Bowl for the first time in their history, they will walk away with the Lombardi trophy, giving the city of Detroit its first title in any major sport since 2008.

NFL Playoff Odds - Update

Only 1 road team won in the wild card round of the playoffs, but there were actually a few upsets, including both 4-seeds winning despite being underdogs. Now that the bracket is set for the remainder of the postseason, it's easier to determine all possible future matchups, and this is my update of each remaining team's odds of advancing through each remaining round and winning the Super Bowl, with change from last week in parentheses:

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

(1) Lions - 72.3% (+4.4)

(2) Eagles - 68.8% (+37.5)

(1) Chiefs - 61.3% (+6.3)

(2) Bills - 52.0% (+21.9)

(3) Ravens - 48.0% (+7.4)

(4) Texans - 38.7% (+25.5)

(4) Rams - 31.2% (+19.3)

(6) Commanders - 27.7% (+12.9)

The teams that were not expected to win saw the biggest rise in their odds, while the Ravens barely moved at all, since they ended up with the toughest possible opponent, and the only possible road game they could have played. Kansas City saw a bigger bump than Detroit thanks to Houston's upset giving them a more favorable matchup.

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

(1) Lions - 48.4% (+2.9)

(2) Bills - 32.3% (+15.0)

(2) Eagles - 30.8% (+17.1)

(3) Ravens - 30.5% (+6.0)

(1) Chiefs - 26.2% (-0.3)

(6) Commanders - 11.4% (+6.0)

(4) Texans - 11.0% (+6.6)

(4) Rams - 9.3% (+6.3)

The only team whose odds dropped here are the Chiefs, who will have to face either the Ravens or the Bills in the next round, which is tough either way, even at home. The Eagles' odds are helped by facing the Rams this weekend, with a chance of the Commanders next week.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

(1) Lions - 29.7% (+1.0)

(2) Bills - 16.2% (+8.1)

(2) Eagles - 16.1% (+8.8)

(3) Ravens - 15.7% (+3.1)

(1) Chiefs - 10.5% (-0.4)

(6) Commanders - 4.8% (+2.5)

(4) Texans - 3.6% (+2.3)

(4) Rams - 3.4% (+2.2)

Buffalo and Philly saw their odds of winning it all double after advancing past tough wild card foes. Kansas City saw a slight drop here as well, but you can never count out a team with Patrick Mahomes at QB.

NFL Playoff Odds - 2025

The NFL Playoffs begin today, and even though I didn't have time to post updated rankings throughout this season, I still kept track of all of the data, and I've put that all together to determine each team's odds of advancing through the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl, taking home field advantage and all potential matchups into account. Here is how it breaks down, along with my picks for how it will all turn out:

Odds of Winning Wild Card Round

(3) Ravens - 69.6%

(5) Vikings - 61.2%

(5) Chargers - 59.6%

(3) Buccaneers - 59.4%

(2) Bills - 56.7%

(2) Eagles - 53.4%

(7) Packers - 46.6%

(7) Broncos - 43.3%

(6) Commanders - 40.6%

(4) Texans - 40.4%

(4) Rams - 38.8%

(6) Steelers - 30.4%

Odds of Reaching Conference Championships

(1) Lions - 67.9%

(1) Chiefs - 55.0%

(3) Ravens - 40.6%

(2) Eagles - 31.3%

(2) Bills - 30.1%

(3) Buccaneers - 30.0%

(5) Vikings - 27.1%

(5) Chargers - 26.9%

(7) Broncos - 21.4%

(7) Packers - 17.1%

(6) Commanders - 14.8%

(4) Texans - 13.2%

(6) Steelers - 12.8%

(4) Rams - 11.9%

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

(1) Lions - 45.5%

(1) Chiefs - 26.5%

(3) Ravens - 24.5%

(2) Bills - 17.3%

(2) Eagles - 13.7%

(5) Chargers - 12.3%

(3) Buccaneers - 12.0%

(5) Vikings - 11.1%

(7) Broncos - 10.0%

(7) Packers - 9.1%

(6) Commanders - 5.4%

(6) Steelers - 5.1%

(4) Texans - 4.4%

(4) Rams - 3.2%

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

(1) Lions - 28.7%

(3) Ravens - 12.6%

(1) Chiefs - 10.9%

(2) Bills - 8.1%

(2) Eagles - 7.3%

(3) Buccaneers - 6.0%

(5) Vikings - 5.5%

(5) Chargers - 5.1%

(7) Packers - 4.8%

(7) Broncos - 4.3%

(6) Commanders - 2.3%

(6) Steelers - 1.8%

(4) Texans - 1.3%

(4) Rams - 1.2%

My Picks

Wild Card

(2) Bills over (7) Broncos

(3) Ravens over (6) Steelers

(5) Chargers over (4) Texans

(7) Packers over (2) Eagles

(3) Buccaneers over (6) Commanders

(5) Vikings over (4) Rams

Divisional

(1) Chiefs over (5) Chargers

(2) Bills over (3) Ravens

(1) Lions over (7) Packers

(3) Buccaneers over (5) Vikings

Conference

(2) Bills over (1) Chiefs

(1) Lions over (3) Buccaneers

Super Bowl

(1) Lions over (2) Bills

Football Predictions - 26 Sep thru 30 Sep

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

Army at Temple - Black Knights by 15

Dallas at NY Giants - Cowboys by 1

Friday

Virginia Tech at (7) Miami - Hurricanes by 19.5

Washington at Rutgers - Scarlet Knights by 9.5

Saturday

Kentucky at (6) Ole Miss - Rebels by 22

Minnesota at (12) Michigan - Wolverines by 8

(20) Oklahoma State at (23) Kansas State - Wildcats by 1

(22) BYU at Baylor - Cougars by 2.5

Maryland at Indiana - Hoosiers by 4.5

Nebraska at Purdue - Cornhuskers by 5.5

Buffalo at UConn - Huskies by 9.5

Western Kentucky at Boston College - Eagles by 10

Northern Illinois at NC State - Huskies by 13

Holy Cross at Syracuse - Orange by 19.5

Navy at UAB - Midshipmen by 3.5

South Florida at Tulane - Green Wave by 4

Ball State at James Madison - Dukes by 19

Texas State at Sam Houston - Bearkats by 14

Wisconsin at (13) USC - Trojans by 17.5

(15) Louisville at (16) Notre Dame - Irish by 11.5

(21) Oklahoma at Auburn - Sooners by 3

Arkansas vs (24) Texas A&M - Razorbacks by 0.5

UMass at Miami (OH) - Redhawks by 15

Louisiana at Wake Forest - Demon Deacons by 0.5

TCU at Kansas - Jayhawks by 6.5

Colorado at UCF - Knights by 21.5

Liberty at App State - Flames by 3

Fresno State at UNLV - Rebels by 24.5

San Diego State at Central Michigan - Chippewas by 9

Georgia Southern at Georgia State - Eagles by 1.5

Western Michigan at Marshall - Thundering Herd by 11

Akron at Ohio - Bobcats by 5.5

Eastern Michigan at Kent State - Eagles by 6.5

North Carolina at Duke - Blue Devils by 15

UTSA at East Carolina - Pirates by 9.5

Mississippi State at (1) Texas - Longhorns by 35

Old Dominion at Bowling Green - Falcons by 21.5

Louisiana Tech at FIU - Golden Panthers by 12.5

UT Martin at Kennesaw State - Owls by 3

Wagner at FAU - Owls by 17.5

(3) Ohio State at Michigan State - Buckeyes by 2.5

Stanford at (17) Clemson - Tigers by 5.5

(18) Iowa State at Houston - Cyclones by 4.5

UL Monroe at Troy - Warhawks by 2.5

Charlotte at Rice - Owls by 12.5

Tulsa at North Texas - Mean Green by 10

(2) Georgia at (4) Alabama - Crimson Tide by 19.5

(19) Illinois at (9) Penn State - Nittany Lions by 12.5

Middle Tennessee at Memphis - Tigers by 29.5

South Alabama at (14) LSU - Tigers by 13

Florida State at SMU - Mustangs by 19.5

Cincinnati at Texas Tech - Bearcats by 3

New Mexico at New Mexico State - Aggies by 13.5

Air Force at Wyoming - Falcons by 4

Washington State at (25) Boise State - Broncos by 9.5

Arizona at (10) Utah - Utes by 27

(8) Oregon at UCLA - Ducks by 11

Sunday

New Orleans at Atlanta - Saints by 8

LA Rams at Chicago - Rams by 3.5

Minnesota at Green Bay - Vikings by 9

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis - Steelers by 19

Denver at NY Jets - Broncos by 8.5

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay - Eagles by 5.5

Cincinnati at Carolina - Panthers by 2

Jacksonville at Houston - Texans by 16

New England at San Francisco - 49ers by 12.5

Washington at Arizona - Cardinals by 16.5

Cleveland at Las Vegas - Raiders by 9

Kansas City at LA Chargers - Chargers by 8.5

Buffalo at Baltimore - Bills by 16

Monday

Tennessee at Miami - Titans by 2.5

Seattle at Detroit - Seahawks by 0.5

Results

NCAA: 41-23 (.641) 237-68 overall (.777)

Upsets: 5-13 (.278) 12-26 overall (.316)

NFL: 6-10 (.375) 24-24 overall (.500)

Upsets: 3-5 (.375) 6-10 overall (.375)

Football Predictions - 12 Sep thru 16 Sep

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

Arizona State at Texas State - Bobcats by 6

Northwestern State at South Alabama - Jaguars by 16.5

Buffalo at Miami - Bills by 2.5

Friday

UNLV at Kansas - Jayhawks by 4

(20) Arizona at (14) Kansas State - KSU Wildcats by 15

Saturday

(4) Alabama at Wisconsin - Crimson Tide by 11.5

(13) Oklahoma State at Tulsa - Golden Hurricane by 0.5

(16) LSU at South Carolina - Gamecocks by 7.5

Arkansas State at (17) Michigan - Wolverines by 30

Central Michigan at Illinois - Illini by 22.5

Memphis at Florida State - Tigers by 1

Louisiana Tech at NC State - Wolf Pack by 17.5

Cincinnati at Miami (OH) - Redhawks by 15.5

North Texas at Texas Tech - Red Raiders by 2

(24) Boston College at (6) Missouri - Tigers by 8.5

UMass at Buffalo - Minutemen by 3

Coastal Carolina at Temple - Chanticleers by 15

(9) Oregon at Oregon State - Beavers by 9

Ball State at (10) Miami - Hurricanes by 32.5

Tulane at (15) Oklahoma - Sooners by 11.5

(18) Notre Dame at Purdue - Irish by 4

Texas A&M at Florida - Aggies by 2

Prairie View at Michigan State - Spartans by 23

Nevada at Minnesota - Gophers by 14.5

Washington State at Washington - Huskies by 7

VMI at Georgia Tech - Yellowjackets by 27.5

West Virginia at Pittsburgh - Panthers by 3

Morgan State at Ohio - Bobcats by 20

Troy at Iowa - Hawkeyes by 12.5

App State at East Carolina - Pirates by 7

UAB at Arkansas - Razorbacks by 22

(12) Utah at Utah State - Utes by 4.5

UConn at Duke - Blue Devils by 21

NC Central at North Carolina - Tar Heels by 26.5

Virginia Tech at Old Dominion - Hokies by 1

FIU at FAU - Owls by 6

UTEP at Liberty - Flames by 28.5

South Carolina State at Georgia Southern - Eagles by 15.5

Colgate at Akron - Zips by 10

Gardner-Webb at Charlotte - 49ers by 9.5

(5) Ole Miss at Wake Forest - Rebels by 9.5

Bethune-Cookman at Western Michigan - Broncos by 16

UTSA at (2) Texas - Longhorns by 39.5

Vanderbilt at Georgia State - Commodores by 1.5

Jacksonville State at Eastern Michigan - Eagles by 12

Kennesaw State at San Jose State - Spartans by 28

Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee - Hilltoppers by 1.5

Hawaii at Sam Houston - Bearkats by 11.5

South Florida at Southern Miss - Bulls by 0.5

(1) Georgia at Kentucky - Bulldogs by 15

Northern Iowa at (23) Nebraska - Cornhuskers by 28

New Mexico at Auburn - Tigers by 19.5

Toledo at Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 4

Indiana at UCLA - Bruins by 9

Air Force at Baylor - Bears by 9

Colorado at Colorado State - Rams by 8.5

UCF at TCU - Horned Frogs by 3.5

Eastern Illinois at Northwestern - Wildcats by 23

Kent State at (7) Tennessee - Volunteers by 45.5

Maryland at Virginia - Cavaliers by 1.5

Rice at Houston - Cougars by 13

BYU at Wyoming - Cougars by 11

San Diego State at California - Bears by 18.5

New Mexico State at Fresno State - Bulldogs by 13

Sunday

New Orleans at Dallas - Cowboys by 7

Tampa Bay at Detroit - Lions by 6.5

Indianapolis at Green Bay - Packers by 9

NY Jets at Tennessee - Titans by 0.5

San Francisco at Minnesota - 49ers by 14

Seattle at New England - Patriots by 2.5

NY Giants at Washington - Giants by 1

LA Chargers at Carolina - Chargers by 5

Cleveland at Jacksonville - Jaguars by 1.5

Las Vegas at Baltimore - Ravens by 17

LA Rams at Arizona - Rams by 0.5

Pittsburgh at Denver - Steelers by 2

Cincinnati at Kansas City - Chiefs by 11.5

Chicago at Houston - Texans by 6

Monday

Atlanta at Philadelphia - Eagles by 7

Results

NCAA: 59-19 (.756) 148-30 overall (.831)

Upsets: 3-2 (.600) 5-3 overall (.625)

NFL: 12-4 (.750) 

Upsets: 1-2 (.333)

Top 100 NFL Running Backs - #4: OJ Simpson

OJ Simpson

Teams

Buffalo Bills (1969-1977)

San Francisco 49ers (1978-1979)

Playoffs

Appearances - 1 (1974)

Conf Champ Games - 0

Super Bowls - 0

Championships - 0

Awards and Honors

Offensive Player of the Year - 1 (1973)

MVP - 1 (1973)

All-Pro First Team - 5 (1972,1973,1974,1975,1976)

Pro Bowl - 6 (1969,1972,1973,1974,1975,1976)

All-Time Ranks

Rushing Yards per Game - #11

Rushing Yards - #21

Yards per Rush - #24

Scrimmage Yards - #43

Rushing Touchdowns - #51

Total Touchdowns - #85

League Leads

Rushing Yards (#1-1972,1973,1975,1976, #3-1974, #6-1969)

Rushing Touchdowns (#1-1973,1975, #7-1976)

Yards per Rush (#1-1975, #2-1973,1976)

Rushing Yards per Game (#1-1973,1975,1976, #2-1972, #4-1969, #5-1974, #6-1977, #7-1970)

Receiving Touchdowns (#9-1975)

Total Touchdowns (#1-1975, #5-1973)

Scrimmage Yards (#1-1973,1975,1976, #3-1972, #5-1969,1974)

Yards per Touch (#2-1973,1975, #6-1976)

After finishing as Heisman runner-up as a junior, then winning the award as a senior at USC after gaining 1709 rushing yards and scoring 22 touchdowns, OJ Simpson was drafted by the Buffalo Bills with the #1 overall pick in the 1969 NFL Draft.

Simpson's career in the NFL got off to a slow start. He didn't reach 750 rushing yards in any of his first 3 seasons, but after a coaching change in 1972, the offense was changed to feature him as the star, and he responded with a massive 5-year run, which started in 1972, when Simpson led the league in rushing with 1251 yards, finishing as the runner-up for Offensive Player of the Year. 

His best season came in 1973, when he became the first player ever to reach 2000 rushing yards, gaining 2003 on the season. He also led the league with 12 touchdowns and 2073 scrimmage yards, and his 143.1 yards per game is still the record for any player in history. He gained a career-high 6.0 yards per carry on the season, and won both the Offensive Player of the Year and MVP awards after the season, despite his team not even reaching the playoffs.

A knee injury slowed him a bit in 1974, limiting him to 1125 yards, but that was also the season when he played in the only playoff game of his career, gaining 86 total yards and scoring a touchdown in a loss to Pittsburgh in the divisional round.

He was back at full strength in 1975, leading the league again with 1817 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns, the best of his career. He also gained 2243 scrimmage yards and scored 23 touchdowns, both of which were records at the time. He finished that season as runner-up for the MVP and the Offensive Player of the Year awards.

He led the league in rushing one last time in 1976, with 1503 yards, and his 1762 scrimmage yards were also a league-best. That year, on Thanksgiving, he set a new league record with 273 rushing yards against Detroit, which stood for years but has fallen several times since.

After injuries forced him to miss half of the 1977 season, Simpson was traded to San Francisco before the 1978 season, which is where he had grown up. The injuries followed him to the west coast, and he retired after 2 seasons as a 49er. At the time of his retirement, he was #2 on the all-time rushing list.

Though he is more famous today for things that he did decades later, at his peak Simpson was by far the best running back in football. Nobody has come close to matching his record for yards per game from 1973, which is still 10 yards per game better than any other player ever. He led the league in rushing yards 4 times and scrimmage yards 3 times, and held numerous records during his career, and there is no doubt that he was one of the greatest running backs of all time.