Thursday, March 31, 2011

Vote: Who is the Best NBA Player ever from Butler or VCU?

I did not realize how few players had made the NBA out of these two universities when the week began, so I've combined the two to make it a little more interesting.

Butler

Gordon Hayward (2010-2011) - 4.2 pts, 1.8 reb, 1.0 ast

Ralph O'Brien (1951-1953) - 7.1 pts, 1.6 reb, 1.5 ast

Billy Shepherd (1972-1975) - 5.7 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.1 ast
#1 in ABA in 3-point percentage in 1975
#2 in 3-pointers in ABA in 1974
#9 in assists in 1974

VCU

Gerald Henderson (1979-1992) - 8.9 pts, 1.7 reb, 3.6 ast
3-time NBA Champion
#3 in 3-point percentage in 1988

Eric Maynor (2009-2011) - 4.5 pts, 1.6 reb, 3.1 ast

Larry Sanders (2010-2011) - 4.6 pts, 3.1 reb, 0.3 ast

Ed Sherod (1982-1983) - 6.2 pts, 2.3 reb, 4.9 ast

The list may not be much to look at, but there are a couple of very solid players there. With only 10 players total coming from the two schools so far, including 3 current players, there is a good chance that the number will increase dramatically in the next few years, with a couple of possible NBA players at each school currently.

NBA Player of the Day

Carmelo Anthony - NYK - 39 pts, 10 reb, 5 ast, 15-26 FG, 3-4 3P, 6-6 FT
Carmelo scored 39 for the second straight game, and the Knicks won their second straight as a result. This performance was a little more impressive than the last, because it didn't require overtime, Anthony shot over 50%, and he hit the shot that put New York up for good in the final minute of the win over New Jersey.

Predictions - 31 Mar

NBA

Celtics at Spurs - Spurs by 4
Mavericks at Lakers - Lakers by 5

Prediction Results - 30 Mar

NBA: 12-1 (.923) 663-272 overall (.709)
Upsets: 2-0 (1.000) 167-114 overall (.594)

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Vote: Who is the Best NBA Player ever from Kentucky?

In part two of this series, I am giving you 7 candidates who played college basketball at the University of Kentucky, once again in alphabetical order so that my own opinion will not be taken into account. You can vote for the one you feel is best with the poll on the right side of the screen.

The Candidates

Rex Chapman (1988-2000) - 14.6 pts, 2.5 reb, 2.7 ast
All-Rookie 2nd Team
#100 all-time in 3-point field goals

Louie Dampier (1967-1979) - 15.9 pts, 2.6 reb, 4.9 ast
7-time ABA All-Star
4-time All-ABA 2nd Team
ABA Champion (1975)
#1 in ABA in 3-point percentage in 1974
#1 all-time in ABA in assists and points

Cliff Hagan (1956-1970) - 17.7 pts, 6.6 reb, 3.2 ast
6-time All-Star
2-time 2nd Team All-NBA
NBA Champion (1958)
Hall of Fame (1978)
#2 in field goal percentage in 1958
#5 in free throw percentage in 1962
#5 in scoring in 1959 and 1960

Dan Issel (1970-1985) - 22.6 pts, 9.1 reb, 2.4 ast
7-time All-Star
ABA Champion (1975)
Hall of Fame (1993)
ABA Rookie of the Year
All-ABA First Team (1972)
4-time All-ABA Second Team
3-time ABA Scoring Leader
#2 in field goal percentage in 1973

Jamal Mashburn (1993-2004) - 19.1 pts, 5.4 reb, 4.0 ast
NBA All-Star (2003)
Eastern Conference Player of the Month (Feb 2003)
All-NBA Third Team (2003)
All-Rookie First Team
#5 in scoring in 1995

Frank Ramsey (1954-1964) - 13.4 pts, 5.5 reb, 1.8 ast
7-time NBA Champion
Hall of Fame (1982)
#4 in free throw percentage in 1961 and 1962

Antoine Walker (1996-2008) - 17.5 pts, 7.7 reb, 3.5 ast
3-time All-Star
Eastern Conference Player of the Month (Dec 2001)
All-Rookie First Team
NBA Champion (2006)
#1 in minutes in 2002
#1 in 3-pointers in 2001
#5 in scoring in 1998
#8 in rebounds in 1998
#10 in steals in 2001

There you have the candidates for best player from the University of Kentucky. 3 of them are in the Hall of Fame, but does that make them the best ever? You be the judge.

NBA Player of the Day

Kevin Durant - OKC - 39 pts, 6 reb, 5 ast, 13-23 FG, 3-5 3P, 10-12 FT
Durant had his highest scoring game since the beginning of February and led the Thunder to an overtime win over the Golden State Warriors, which helped them hold on to the #4 seed in the Western Conference and the home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs.

Predictions - 30 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Magic at Hawks - Magic by 2
Pistons at Pacers - Pacers by 5
Rockets at 76ers - 76ers by 2
Heat at Wizards - Heat by 11
Bucks at Raptors - Bucks by 2
Cavaliers at Bobcats - Bobcats by 8
Nets at Knicks - Knicks by 9
Trail Blazers at Hornets - Hornets by 3
Bulls at Timberwolves - Bulls by 9
Warriors at Grizzlies - Grizzlies by 8
Kings at Nuggets - Nuggets by 12
Thunder at Suns - Thunder by 1
Mavericks at Clippers - Mavericks by 4

Prediction Results - 29 Mar

NBA: 2-2 (.500) 651-271 overall (.706)

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Vote: Who is the Best NBA Player ever from UConn?

This week I'd like to poll my readers to determine which NBA player from each of the Final Four schools had the most impressive professional career, and I'm starting today with the top seed remaining, the University of Connecticut. Most of the best former Huskies have come in the last 20 years, and only one of the seven candidates I'm highlighting today is not currently active in the NBA. The 7 players are listed in alphabetical order, with career averages as of today following their name.

The Candidates

Ray Allen - 20.3 pts, 4.3 reb, 3.6 ast
10-time NBA All-Star
NBA Champion (2008)
All-Rookie 2nd Team
All-NBA 2nd Team (2005)
All-NBA 3rd Team (2001)
#1 all-time in 3-point field goals made and attempted
#2 in 3-point percentage in 2011
#4 all-time in free throw percentage
#6 in scoring in 2007

Caron Butler - 16.6 pts, 5.9 reb, 2.9 ast
2-time NBA All-Star
4-time Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month
All-Rookie First Team
#3 in steals in 2007
#6 in free throw percentage in 2008

Rudy Gay - 17.8 pts, 5.6 reb, 1.9 ast
All-Rookie First Team
Western Conference Rookie of the Month (Nov)
#2 in minutes per game in 2011

Ben Gordon - 17.1 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.8 ast
Sixth Man of the Year (2005)
3-time Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month
All-Rookie First Team
#3 in free throw percentage in 2008.
#7 in 3-point percentage in 2006.

Richard Hamilton - 17.7 pts, 3.2 reb, 3.5 ast
3-time NBA All-Star
NBA Champion (2004)
#1 in 3-point percentage in 2006
#2 in free throw percentage in 2002

Emeka Okafor - 12.9 pts, 10.2 reb, 1.8 blk
Rookie of the Year
3-time Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month
All-Rookie First Team
#4 in rebounds in 2005
#4 in blocks in 2007
#6 in field goal percentage in 2009

Clifford Robinson - 14.2 pts, 4.6 reb, 2.2 ast
NBA All-Star (1994)
Sixth Man of the Year (1993)
2-time All-Defensive 2nd Team
#8 all-time in games played
#8 in 3-point percentage in 1999
#9 in blocks in 1993

There are the candidates. I won't reveal my pick yet, but I do feel that there is an obvious choice in this race, but overall this is a very solid group of players.

NBA Player of the Day

Carmelo Anthony - NYK - 39 pts, 10 reb, 2 ast, 12-26 FG, 2-6 3P, 13-17 FT
Carmelo took over in the second half of a game he called a must-win, scoring 33 points after halftime to lead the Knicks to an upset of Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic in overtime last night at Madison Square Garden. It was his highest scoring output as a member of the Knicks and ended the team's 6-game losing streak.

Predictions - 29 Mar

Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Heat at Cavaliers - Heat by 14
Rockets at Nets - Rockets by 5
Warriors at Thunder - Thunder by 9
Suns at Kings - Suns by 2

Prediction Results - 28 Mar

NBA: 1-5 (.167) 649-269 overall (.707)

Monday, March 28, 2011

NBA Rankings - 28 Mar

The Bulls and Lakers are both getting hot at the right time, and with the way they've been playing since the All-Star break, it would be no surprise to see the two of them face off in the NBA Finals this June. Both are led by star guards with MVP credentials and have multiple All-Star quality big men surrounding them, and they appear to be on a crash course. Here are the latest rankings, with team name followed by weekly record, overall record, rating, and previous ranking.

1. Chicago (4-0) (53-19) -7.01 (4)
2. Miami (3-0) (51-22) -6.92 (1)
3. LA Lakers (3-0) (53-20) -6.72 (2)
4. San Antonio (1-3) (57-16) -6.28 (3)
5. Boston (2-2) (51-21) -5.44 (5)
6. Orlando (3-0) (47-26) -5.32 (6)
7. Denver (3-0) (44-29) -4.92 (8)
8. Dallas (3-0) (52-21) -4.71 (7)
9. Oklahoma City (3-0) (48-24) -3.86 (9)
10. Memphis (3-1) (41-33) -2.71 (10)
11. Houston (1-1) (38-35) -2.43 (12)
12. New Orleans (2-1) (42-32) -2.13 (11)
13. Portland (2-1) (42-31) -2.00 (13)
14. Philadelphia (1-2) (37-36) -1.12 (14)
15. Phoenix (1-3) (36-36) -0.17 (16)
16. New York (0-4) (35-38) -0.16 (15)
17. Atlanta (2-2) (42-32) -0.01 (17)
18. Milwaukee (1-2) (29-43) 1.19 (19)
19. Utah (0-4) (36-38) 1.34 (18)
20. Indiana (2-2) (32-42) 1.58 (20)
21. Golden State (2-2) (32-42) 2.40 (22)
22. LA Clippers (2-1) (29-45) 2.53 (21)
23. Charlotte (2-1) (30-42) 3.34 (23)
24. Detroit (1-2) (26-47) 3.59 (24)
25. Sacramento (3-1) (20-52) 4.59 (25)
26. Minnesota (0-3) (17-57) 5.01 (28)
27. New Jersey (1-3) (23-49) 5.35 (27)
28. Toronto (0-4) (20-53) 6.11 (26)
29. Washington (0-4) (17-55) 7.76 (29)
30. Cleveland (1-3) (14-58) 9.73 (30)

Hot

The Chicago Bulls are the hottest team in basketball right now. This week they demolished the Kings and Hawks before beating Memphis and Milwaukee on back-to-back nights. They were the only team to beat either Sacramento or Memphis this week, and Derrick Rose is looking more like an MVP every time he takes the court.

This may seem like a joke, but the Timberwolves were the second hottest team this week, without even winning a game. They started the week with two eight-point losses at Dallas and Oklahoma City, both of which will enjoy home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. After that, they nearly pulled off a huge upset against the Celtics back in Minneapolis last night, falling by 3 points, and they all of that without their best player.

The Golden State Warriors didn't play that well on their trip to Texas early in the week, getting blown out in San Antonio and Houston, but then they returned home to destroy two of the worst teams in the East. They may have been eliminated from the playoffs last night, but if they were in the East they would be tied for the 8th spot today.

Denver has been on fire since losing the Carmelo distraction last month. This week they beat up Washington and Toronto and upset the Spurs in between. They haven't lost at home since February 7 and are 12-4 since the trade.

Cold

Toronto West Coast trip took a turn for the worse this week, with blowout losses in Oakland and Denver and close losses in Phoenix and Los Angeles (to the Clippers, not the Lakers). The schedule isn't going to be any nicer for them now that they're heading back East, with games against Chicago and Orlando this week.

Utah's slim playoff chances disappeared with an 0-4 week against teams currently in the playoffs. It was probably a good thing they lost all 4, because if they had made the playoffs, they would have been embarrassed by an even better team in the first round.

New York's slide with Carmelo in the lineup continued this week, with 4 losses in a row to run their losing streak up to 6. Among those 6 losses, only 2 came against teams that will likely be in the playoffs this year.

Washington's trip out West didn't go much better than Toronto's, with the only difference being in the quality of one opponent (Portland rather than Phoenix). The Wizards still have just one road win all season, and if they fail to win another, they will tie the all-time record for worst road team.

NBA Player of the Day

Monta Ellis - GSW - 37 pts, 7 reb, 13 ast, 14-24 FG, 4-6 3P, 5-7 FT
Golden State is no longer mathematically alive in the playoff race, but Ellis didn't care. He played all 48 minutes of yesterday's game and had what may have been his best game of the season as the Warriors beat the Washington Wizards to keep from being their second road victim of the year.

Predictions - 28 Mar

Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Celtics at Pacers - Celtics by 4
Bucks at Bobcats - Bobcats by 1
Magic at Knicks - Magic by 2
76ers at Bulls - Bulls by 9
Trail Blazers at Spurs - Spurs by 7
Wizards at Jazz - Jazz by 9

Prediction Results - 27 Mar

NBA: 7-2 (.778) 648-264 overall (.711)
NCAA Tournament: 1-1 (.500) 42-22 overall (.656)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 165-114 overall (.591)

Sunday, March 27, 2011

Predictions - 27 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Kings at 76ers - 76ers by 9
Hawks at Cavaliers - Hawks by 6
Rockets at Heat - Heat by 7
Spurs at Grizzlies - Spurs by 1
Celtics at Timberwolves - Celtics by 8
Trail Blazers at Thunder - Thunder by 4
Wizards at Warriors - Warriors by 9
Hornets at Lakers - Lakers by 7
Mavericks at Suns - Mavs by 2

NCAA Tournament

(11) VCU vs. (1) Kansas - Kansas by 14
(4) Kentucky vs. (2) North Carolina - Kentucky by 2

NBA Player of the Day

Derrick Rose - CHI - 30 pts, 3 reb, 17 ast, 9-17 FG, 12-12 FT
Rose set a new career high for assists and became only the third Chicago Bull to ever record at least 30 points and 15 assists in the same game as the Bulls strengthened their lead in the Eastern Conference with a road win in Milwaukee last night. Rose led the Bulls on a 12-0 run to close the game that took Chicago from a 4-point deficit to an 8-point win.

Prediction Results - 26 Mar

NBA: 5-1 (.833) 641-262 overall (.710)
NCAA Tournament: 1-1 (.500) 41-21 overall (.661)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 164-114 overall (.590)

Saturday, March 26, 2011

NBA MVP Rankings - 2005-2006

In 2006, Steve Nash won his second consecutive MVP award after guiding the Suns to the #2 seed in the West despite losing Amare Stoudemire for the entire season due to multiple knee injuries. The top seeds from each conference, Detroit and San Antonio, failed to reach the NBA Finals, as both were beaten by the eventual finalists, Dallas and Miami. Here are my rankings for where each player should have ended up in the final voting for each of the major offensive awards, with actual finish in parentheses.

Most Valuable Player

1. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 26.6 pts, 9.0 reb, 2.8 ast (3)
Dirk set a career high in scoring in 2006 while leading Dallas to 60 wins and the second best record in the Western Conference. Although he didn't win an MVP award until the next season, his performance that season should not have been overlooked, as he showed in the playoffs as he led the Mavericks to the NBA Finals for the first time.

2. LeBron James - CLE - 27.3 pts, 6.7 reb, 6.0 ast (2)
LeBron's stats were down from the previous season, when he averaged a career-high 31.4 points per game, but he led Cleveland to home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, where they lost in 7 games to the top-seeded Pistons in the second round. He was already the best player in the league, he just didn't quite have the wins to earn the MVP.

3. Tim Duncan - SAS - 18.6 pts, 11.0 reb, 3.2 ast (8)
Duncan averaged below 20 points per game for the first time in his career, but what he did was lead San Antonio to the best record in the West again while deferring a little more to his improving teammates. The Spurs may have lost in the second round of the playoffs, but they made up for it by winning it all the next season.

4. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 27.2 pts, 5.7 reb, 6.7 ast (6)
Wade set new career highs in points, rebounds, field goal percentage, and free throw percentage in his third season in the league, and led Miami to their first NBA Finals, where they came back from a 2-0 deficit to upset the Mavericks and win the title, for which Wade was named the Finals MVP.

5. Shawn Marion - PHX - 21.8 pts, 11.8 reb, 2.0 stl (10)
With Amare Stoudemire out of the lineup, Marion took advantage and set career highs in scoring, rebounding, and field goal percentage, all of which are still standing 5 years later. Steve Nash may have gotten more headlines and the MVP award, but Marion was a big part of the reason Phoenix returned to the Conference Finals.

6. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 35.4 pts, 5.3 reb, 4.5 ast (4)
Kobe became the first player to average 35 points per game since Michael Jordan in 1987, but the Lakers barely squeaked into the playoffs before losing to Phoenix in the first round. Kobe was only the fifth player ever to average 35, and was just the second to do so in the past 39 years.

7. Elton Brand - LAC - 24.7 pts, 10.0 reb, 2.6 ast (7)
As odd as it is to see a member of the Clippers mentioned among MVP candidates, that's exactly where Brand belonged in 2006, when he bested his old career high in scoring by more than 4 points per game, and led the Clippers to the playoffs, where they were able to upset Denver in the first round before eventually falling to Phoenix.

8. Steve Nash - PHX - 18.8 pts, 4.2 reb, 10.5 ast (1)
One year after winning his first MVP, Nash set new career highs in field goal percentage, free throw percentage, rebounds, and points while guiding the Suns back to the Western Conference Finals without their leading scorer from the previous year. He led the league in assists for the second time and free throw percentage (.921) for the first time.

9. Vince Carter - NJN - 24.2 pts, 5.8 reb, 4.3 ast (NR)
Vince played very well in his first full season in New Jersey, helping them run away with the division title and into the second round of the playoffs. He did not appear to have missed a step from his days in Toronto, and was still one of the best players in the league at age 29.

10. Pau Gasol - MEM - 20.4 pts, 8.9 reb, 4.6 ast (NR)
Playing in Memphis caused Gasol to be somewhat overlooked, but his first 20-point season helped Memphis to the second-best record in franchise history and a spot in the playoffs for the third straight season, even though it ended in a sweep for the third straight time.

Rookie of the Year

1. Chris Paul - NOK - 16.1 pts, 5.1 reb, 7.8 ast (1)
It was apparent, even when he was a rookie, that Chris Paul would be a star in this league, and it was no mistake that he ran away with the Rookie of the Year award after putting up an amazing season in which he started all 78 games in which he played and had the displaced Hornets within 6 games of making the playoffs.

2. Charlie Villanueva - TOR - 13.0 pts, 6.4 reb, 1.1 ast (2)
Villanueva played well for a Toronto team that struggled after trading away their franchise player the previous season. That void allowed the rookie to get significant playing time and earned him a spot on the All-Rookie First Team.

3. Raymond Felton - CHA - 11.9 pts, 3.3 reb, 5.6 ast (4)
Felton was the poor man's version of Chris Paul, not quite measuring up to the top rookie in any category, but playing well enough to start for most of the season on a bad team. He has failed to progress very much since that season, however.

4. Andrew Bogut - MIL - 9.4 pts, 7.0 reb, 2.3 ast (3)
The #1 pick in the draft showed some real promise as a rookie, playing in every game and shooting over 53% from the field for Milwaukee. He has continued to improve as a rebounder and shot blocker over the course of his career for Milwaukee.

5. Deron Williams - UTA - 10.8 pts, 2.4 reb, 4.5 ast (6)
As a rookie Williams was not as impressive as fellow point guards Felton and Paul, but over the next several seasons he proved that he equal to or better than both of them, just not in his rookie year.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Mike Miller - MEM - 13.7 pts, 5.4 reb, 2.7 ast (1)
Miller definitely deserved his sixth man award in 2006, when he had his best year for the Grizzlies up to that point despite coming off the bench for the majority of the season for the first time in his career. The next year he was put back into the starting lineup and had the best season of his career.

2. Josh Childress - ATL - 10.0 pts, 5.2 reb, 1.8 ast (NR)
Childress spent most of his second season coming off the bench for Atlanta, but his production in that role was nearly identical to that of his rookie season. Somehow, the voters failed to take notice of him that year, but he did pick up a little bit of recognition over the next two years.

3. Jamal Crawford - NYK - 14.3 pts, 3.1 reb, 3.8 ast (14)
Following two seasons as a starter in which he averaged over 17 points per game, Crawford spent most of 2006 on the bench, which caused a slight dropoff in overall production for the guard, but after a couple more seasons as a starter he decided that he preferred coming off the bench, which allowed him to win this award a few years later.

4. Charlie Villanueva - TOR - 13.0 pts, 6.4 reb, 1.1 ast (20)
Not only was Villanueva one of the top rookies in the league, he was one of the best bench players throughout the season also. The only time in his career that he's been able to improve upon his rookie year was 2009, the only season in which he started a majority of the games for his team.

5. Derek Fisher - GSW - 13.3 pts, 2.6 reb, 4.3 ast (16)
Even though he came off the bench for Golden State, Fisher had the best season of his entire career in 2006, and he played every game for the first time in 7 years, something that he has now done for 6 straight seasons.

Most Improved Player

1. Boris Diaw - PHX - +8.5 pts, +4.3 reb, +3.9 ast (1)
After two seasons as a reserve in Atlanta, Diaw came to Phoenix in a trade and became a starter quickly after Amare Stoudemire went down with a major knee injury, and he responded by showing his skill at filling up every category of the stat sheet, making him an easy choice for most improved player.

2. David West - NOK - +10.9 pts, +3.1 reb, +0.4 ast (2)
West's scoring averaged jumped more than Diaw's, but the Frenchman had him beat everywhere else. West became a full-time starter for the Hornets, and he showed the abilities that would eventually make him an All-Star.

3. Smush Parker - LAL - +8.5 pts, +2.5 reb, +2.8 ast (14)
Parker took over as the starting point guard for the Lakers and had what was easily his best season as a pro, helping the Lakers to make the playoffs and earning the job for a second year before leaving as a free agent and watching his career come to an abrupt end.

4. Kevin Martin - SAC - +4.2 pts, +0.3 reb, +0.1 ast (21)
It's kind of hard to tell why he's here by just looking at his averages, but his shooting percentages tell a different story. His field goal percentage improved by 10%, 3-point by 17%, and free throw by 19%, which made him a much better player when he was on the court, which was much more often in his second year.

5. Mike James - TOR - +8.5 pts, +0.5 reb, +2.2 ast (8)
James came from out of nowhere to average over 20 points per game for a Toronto team that was lacking a star after the Vince Carter trade. He never even averaged half that amount again as he went back to being just another role player on other teams for the rest of his career.

NBA Player of the Day

Dwyane Wade - MIA - 39 pts, 11 reb, 8 ast, 3 stl, 5 blk, 15-26 FG, 1-3 3P, 8-11 FT
Wade led Miami in all 5 major statistical categories last night as he Miami was able to beat the 76ers and keep pace with the Bulls in the race for the best record in the East. Wade's performance was quite possibly the best performance of any player this season, especially considering that he is a guard.

Predictions - 26 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Nets at Hawks - Hawks by 8
Knicks at Bobcats - Knicks by 1
Pacers at Pistons - Pistons by 1
Bulls at Bucks - Bulls by 5
Mavericks at Jazz - Mavericks by 3
Raptors at Clippers - Clippers by 7

NCAA Tournament

(8) Butler vs. (2) Florida - Florida by 3
(5) Arizona vs. (3) Connecticut - UConn by 1

Prediction Results - 25 Mar

NBA: 7-6 (.538) 636-261 overall (.709)
NCAA Tournament: 2-2 (.500) 40-20 overall (.667)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 163-114 overall (.588)

Friday, March 25, 2011

Predictions - 25 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Kings at Pacers - Pacers by 7
Nets at Magic - Magic by 14
Bobcats at Celtics - Celtics by 13
Pistons at Cavaliers - Pistons by 3
76ers at Heat - Heat by 8
Bucks at Knicks - Knicks by 5
Grizzlies at Bulls - Bulls by 8
Timberwolves at Thunder - Thunder by 12
Wizards at Nuggets - Nuggets by 15
Hornets at Suns - Suns by 1
Spurs at Trail Blazers - Spurs by 1
Raptors at Warriors - Warriors by 6
Clippers vs. Lakers - Lakers by 9

NCAA Tournament

(11) Marquette vs. (2) North Carolina - North Carolina by 3
(12) Richmond vs. (1) Kansas - Kansas by 11
(4) Kentucky vs. (1) Ohio State - Ohio State by 6
(11) VCU vs. (10) Florida State - Florida State by 4

NBA Player of the Day

Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 30 pts, 11 reb, 4 ast, 12-26 FG, 1-5 3P, 5-5 FT
It wasn't an overly impressive performance from the big German, but it didn't have to be, with Minnesota as their opponent. It was his first 30-10 game of the week, and he was able to help Dallas move to within one game of Los Angeles for home court advantage in a possible second round matchup.

Prediction Results - 24 Mar

NBA: 2-0 (1.000) 629-255 overall (.712)
NCAA Tournament: 0-4 (.000) 38-18 overall (.679)
Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 163-113 overall (.591)

Thursday, March 24, 2011

Predictions - 24 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Timberwolves at Mavericks - Mavs by 13
Hornets at Jazz - Hornets by 1

NCAA Tournament

(3) Connecticut vs. (2) San Diego State - San Diego State by 2
(3) BYU vs. (2) Florida - BYU by 4
(5) Arizona vs. (1) Duke - Duke by 9
(8) Butler vs. (4) Wisconsin - Wisconsin by 7

NBA Player of the Day

Blake Griffin - LAC - 33 pts, 17 reb, 10 ast, 14-19 FG, 5-8 FT
There had been some talk of Griffin slipping lately after he had gone 7 games without recording a double-double, but he answered those critics emphatically last night with his first career triple-double. The Clippers still have a chance at recording their best record in 5 years with a decent finish to the season.

Prediction Results - 23 Mar

NBA: 9-3 (.750) 627-255 overall (.711)
Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 163-112 overall (.593)

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

College Basketball Rankings - 23 Mar

Here are my updated college basketball rankings, taking into account all games through March 22, but once again I will only list the teams that are currently alive and playing for the NCAA Championship. Rankings from the round of 32 are in parentheses.

1. Ohio State -21.19 (2)
2. Duke -19.26 (1)
3. Kansas -18.34 (3)
4. BYU -15.05 (10)
6. Kentucky -14.73 (9)
7. San Diego State -14.44 (8)
9. Wisconsin -14.15 (7)
12. North Carolina -13.11 (13)
16. Connecticut -11.98 (16)
19. Florida -10.88 (19)
20. Arizona -10.56 (24)
23. Marquette -9.61 (25)
27. Florida State -9.16 (34)
40. Butler -7.59 (45)
46. Richmond -7.05 (53)
60. VCU -5.10 (65)

Best Teams Who Went Home Early

5. Texas
8. Pittsburgh
10. Purdue
11. Washington
13. Syracuse
14. Belmont
15. Louisville

Of these teams, only Washington and Belmont lost to teams that are also listed among the top 16 currently, meaning that they had to play a highly-ranked team too early in the tournament. The other 5 teams all lost to teams from outside the top 16 who are still in the tournament.

Most Impressive Wins in Round of 32

The five most impressive wins in the last round, with difference between expected and actual results after the team's name.

1. VCU +29
2. Ohio State +21
3. Florida State +18
3. BYU +18
5. Richmond +13

Most Likely Sweet 16 upsets

1. BYU over Florida
2. UConn over San Diego State
3. Marquette over North Carolina
4. VCU over Florida State

NBA Player of the Day

Kobe Bryant - LAL - 42 pts, 12 reb, 9 ast, 15-31 FG, 3-5 3P, 9-11 FT
Kobe played 48 minutes in the Lakers' triple overtime victory over the Phoenix Suns, but his stats looked pretty good even at the end of regulation, when he had 33 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists. He hit the shot that sealed the victory for LA with 12 seconds left as they continued their hot streak since the All-Star break.

Predictions - 23 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Nets at Cavaliers - Nets by 1
Hawks at 76ers - 76ers by 5
Pacers at Bobcats - Bobcats by 1
Grizzlies at Celtics - Celtics by 6
Heat at Pistons - Heat by 8
Kings at Bucks - Bucks by 8
Magic at Knicks - Magic by 2
Jazz at Thunder - Thunder by 7
Warriors at Rockets - Rockets by 8
Raptors at Suns - Suns by 9
Spurs at Nuggets - Nuggets by 1
Wizards at Clippers - Clippers by 8

Prediction Results - 22 Mar

NBA: 3-0 (1.000) 618-252 overall (.710)

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

NCAA Tournament Odds - 22 Mar

The odds of each team winning the championship have changed considerably in the past week, with 52 teams now eliminated from the tournament. 28 of those teams saw their odds shrink to 0 (they lost a game, so they can't win anymore), and 24 of those teams already had no chance. VCU is the only team that has completely defied the odds, with no chance of winning the title initially, but a small one now. Here are each team's odds of advancing in the tournament and winning the championship.

Elite Eight

1. Kansas - 78.3
2. Duke - 71.9
3. Wisconsin - 66.4
4. Ohio State - 66.1
5. BYU - 60.5
6. Florida State - 60.2
7. North Carolina - 58.7
8. San Diego State - 56.3
9. Connecticut - 43.7
10. Marquette - 41.3
11. VCU - 39.8
12. Florida - 39.5
13. Kentucky - 33.9
14. Butler - 33.6
15. Arizona - 28.1
16. Richmond - 21.7

Final Four

1. Kansas - 60.4
2. Ohio State - 48.8
3. Duke - 46.5
4. BYU - 35.0
5. Wisconsin - 34.4
6. San Diego State - 24.9
7. North Carolina - 20.7
8. Florida Stae - 19.9
9. Kentucky - 19.5
10. Florida - 18.7
11. Connecticut - 16.6
12. Arizona - 12.0
13. Butler - 11.9
14. Marquette - 10.9
15. Richmond - 10.6
16. VCU - 9.1

Championship Game

1. Kansas - 38.2
2. Ohio State - 31.0
3. Duke - 25.9
4. BYU - 18.3
5. Wisconsin - 17.2
6. San Diego State - 10.9
7. Kentucky - 9.2
8. North Carolina - 8.9
9. Florida State - 8.0
10. Florida - 7.8
11. Connecticut - 6.2
12. Arizona - 4.05
13. Butler - 4.00
14. Marquette - 3.8
15. Richmond - 3.7
16. VCU - 2.7

Champion

1. Ohio State - 20.6
2. Kansas - 20.3
3. Duke - 16.0
4. BYU - 8.2
5. Wisconsin - 7.3
6. San Diego State - 5.4
7. Kentucky - 4.7
8. North Carolina - 4.1
9. Connecticut - 2.70
10. Florida - 2.67
11. Florida State - 2.4
12. Arizona - 1.6
13. Marquette - 1.4
14. Butler - 1.0
15. Richmond - 0.9
16. VCU - 0.5

Possible Championship Matchup Odds

All #1 (Kansas vs. Ohio State or Duke) - 21.8
1991 Rematch (Duke vs. Kansas) - 9.9
All Big 10 (Ohio State vs. Wisconsin) - 5.3
UK vs. KU - 3.5
All ACC (Florida State vs. UNC or Duke) - 2.8
All West (BYU vs. Arizona or San Diego State) - 2.7
All Cats (BYU vs. Arizona or Kentucky) - 2.4
2007 Rematch (Ohio State vs. Florida) - 2.4
All MWC (San Diego State vs. BYU) - 2.0
All #2 (Florida vs. San Diego State or North Carolina) - 1.5
All Birds (Kansas vs. Marquette) - 1.4
Kemba vs. Jimmer - 1.1
2010 Rematch (Duke vs. Butler) - 1.0
All Native Americans (San Diego State vs. Florida State) - 0.9
All SEC (Kentucky vs. Florida) - 0.7
All Wisconsin (Wisconsin vs. Marquette) - 0.6
All Cinderella (Marquette vs. VCU, Richmond, or Florida State) - 0.5
All Canines (UConn vs. Butler) - 0.2

NBA Player of the Day

Dwight Howard - ORL - 28 pts, 18 reb, 4 ast, 4 stl, 4 blk, 9-11 FG, 10-12 FT
Howard was the 20th player this season to record 28 points and 18 rebounds in the same game, but he was only the third to add at least 4 assists to those totals and the only one to record either 4 blocks or 4 steals in that same game, and Howard did all of the above is leading Orlando over Cleveland last night. To make his performance even more amazing, he hit 10 of 12 free throws, well above his career average of 59.7%

Predictions - 22 Mar

NBA

Bulls at Hawks - Bulls by 4
Wizards at Trail Blazers - Blazers by 12
Suns at Lakers - Lakers by 9

Prediction Results - 21 Mar

NBA: 7-0 (1.000) 615-252 overall (.709)

Monday, March 21, 2011

NBA Rankings - 21 Mar

The NCAA Tournament may have overshadowed the NBA this week, and with good reason, but that doesn't mean that nothing interesting happened in the pros. For example, Sacramento had a 30-point blowout victory last night. When's the last time that happened? (Answer: January 22, 2008) Here are this week's rankings, with team name followed by weekly record, overall record, rating, and previous ranking.

1. Miami (3-1) (48-22) -6.97 (1)
2. LA Lakers (3-0) (50-20) -6.46 (3)
3. San Antonio (2-1) (56-13) -6.43 (2)
4. Chicago (2-1) (49-19) -6.09 (5)
5. Boston (2-2) (49-19) -5.86 (4)
6. Orlando (2-1) (44-26) -5.30 (6)
7. Dallas (2-2) (49-21) -4.62 (8)
8. Denver (2-2) (41-29) -4.46 (7)
9. Oklahoma City (3-1) (45-24) -3.51 (9)
10. Memphis (2-1) (38-32) -2.34 (12)
11. New Orleans (1-2) (40-31) -2.18 (10)
12. Houston (4-0) (37-34) -2.13 (11)
13. Portland (3-1) (40-30) -1.77 (13)
14. Philadelphia (2-2) (36-34) -1.44 (14)
15. New York (1-3) (35-34) -0.76 (15)
16. Phoenix (2-2) (35-33) -0.44 (17)
17. Atlanta (2-2) (40-30) -0.19 (16)
18. Utah (2-1) (36-34) 0.72 (19)
19. Milwaukee (2-2) (28-41) 0.99 (20)
20. Indiana (2-2) (30-40) 1.51 (18)
21. LA Clippers (1-3) (27-44) 2.68 (21)
22. Golden State (0-4) (30-40) 2.96 (22)
23. Charlotte (0-3) (28-41) 3.40 (23)
24. Detroit (2-1) (25-45) 3.79 (24)
25. Sacramento (2-2) (17-51) 4.62 (27)
26. Toronto (2-1) (20-49) 5.26 (28)
27. New Jersey (1-3) (22-46) 5.35 (26)
28. Minnesota (0-3) (17-54) 5.74 (25)
29. Washington (1-3) (17-51) 7.22 (29)
30. Cleveland (1-2) (13-55) 9.55 (30)

Bracketbusters

None of Memphis' last 4 games have been decided by fewer than 20 points, but that hasn't always been a good thing for the Grizzlies. This week it went in their favor twice, with wins over the Clippers and Pacers, but they also lost at New York between those two games. They are still desperately trying to hold off Houston, Utah, and Phoenix for the final playoff spot.

The Suns struggled while Steve Nash was sitting out with a pelvic injury, but as soon as he returned to the lineup they were back to form, beating the Warriors and Clippers by nearly identical scores to keep themselves alive in the playoff race, with a huge game against the Lakers looming tomorrow.

Portland looked like they were going to have a perfect 4-0 week for most of the evening yesterday, then they fell apart at the end and let the Lakers win the game, but losing at the Staples Center to the defending champs doesn't spoil an otherwise strong week from the Blazers. They started the week with a close win over Dallas, then blew out the Cavaliers by 41 two nights later.

Not only did Sacramento win a game by 30 points for the first time in over 3 years, they also won two games in the same week for the first time since January. They may have been eliminated from playoff contention weeks ago, but they can still be scary on some nights for good teams.

Brackets Busted

After going 3-1 last week and being one of the hotter teams in the league, the Golden State Warriors went 0-4 this week, including a loss to the lowly Kings and two losses to Dallas, the latter of which was a 28-point blowout on the road. Whatever slim playoff hopes they had have now disappeared.

The Clippers were also one of the hottest teams last week, when they had won 5 of 6 games over some decent competition, but this week was just the opposite, with just one win in 4 tries, and that win was over Cleveland, which doesn't really count for much.

It's no surprise that the Timberwolves fell short in road games against Utah and the Lakers this week, but when they got to host the Kings yesterday, they should have been ready to take out some frustration, but it turned out that Sacramento was the one doing the pounding, earning their biggest win in years over the Timbercubs.

The Celtics did manage to go 2-2 this week, but considering the fact that they are trying to earn the top spot in the East, they should not have lost in New Jersey or Houston, two teams that would not even be in the playoffs if they started today. It looks like they'll have to face both Chicago and Miami if they want to make the Finals again.

NBA Player of the Day

Kyle Lowry - HOU - 28 pts, 11 reb, 10 ast, 9-14 FG, 3-4 3P, 7-8 FT
Lowry controlled every aspect of Houston's huge win over Utah, a game that propelled them ahead of the Jazz in the playoff race and put them just 1.5 games behind Memphis for the final playoff spot. Lowry's first career triple-double could not have come at a better time for the Rockets, who would have fallen back to 11th place in the West with a loss.

Predictions - 21 Mar

Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Magic at Cavaliers - Magic by 12
Pacers at Nets - Pacers by 1
Celtics at Knicks - Celtics by 2
Kings at Bulls - Bulls by 14
Jazz at Grizzlies - Grizzlies by 6
Warriors at Spurs - Spurs by 12
Raptors at Nuggets - Nuggets by 13

Prediction Results - 20 Mar

NBA: 6-3 (.667) 608-252 overall (.707)
NCAA Tournament: 3-5 (.375) 38-14 overall (.731)
Upsets: 3-2 (.600) 161-111 overall (.592)

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Predictions - 20 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Nets at Wizards - Wizards by 1
Pistons at Hawks - Hawks by 6
Knicks at Bucks - Bucks by 1
Kings at Timberwolves - Wolves by 4
Suns at Clippers - Clippers by 1
Jazz at Rockets - Rockets by 6
Raptors at Thunder - Thunder by 12
Warriors at Mavericks - Mavs by 9
Trail Blazers at Lakers - Lakers by 8

NCAA Tournament

(7) Washington vs. (2) North Carolina - Washington by 1
(8) Michigan vs. (1) Duke - Duke by 11
(8) George Mason vs. (1) Ohio State - Ohio State by 11
(5) Arizona vs. (4) Texas - Texas by 5
(11) VCU vs. (3) Purdue - Purdue by 11
(11) Marquette vs. (3) Syracuse - Syracuse by 4
(9) Illinois vs. (1) Kansas - Kansas by 6
(10) Florida State vs. (2) Notre Dame - Notre Dame by 4

NBA Player of the Day

Tony Allen - MEM - 19 pts, 11 reb, 6 ast, 6 stl, 7-14 FG, 5-6 FT
Allen controlled both ends of the floor for Memphis, scoring 19 points, grabbing a career-high 11 rebounds, and grabbing 6 steals while holding Danny Granger to 17 points as the Grizzlies strengthened their hold on the final playoff spot with a blowout of the Indiana Pacers, who happen to be in the final playoff spot in the East.

Prediction Results - 19 Mar

NBA: 6-0 (1.000) 602-249 overall (.707)
NCAA Tournament: 7-1 (.875) 35-9 overall (.795)

Saturday, March 19, 2011

College Basketball Rankings - 19 Mar

This is a special edition of the college basketball rankings, with only the 32 teams currently alive in the NCAA Tournament included. The teams will each have their actual nationwide ranking included, as well as their pre-tournament ranking in parentheses.

1. Duke (1)
2. Ohio State (2)
3. Kansas (3)
4. Purdue (11)
5. Pittsburgh (7)
6. Texas (4)
7. Wisconsin (12)
8. San Diego State (6)
9. Kentucky (5)
10. BYU (9)
11. Washington (8)
12. Syracuse (15)
13. North Carolina (13)
14. Notre Dame (16)
16. Connecticut (17)
17. Illinois (18)
19. Florida (21)
20. Cincinnati (30)
21. West Virginia (27)
23. Gonzaga (25)
24. Arizona (19)
25. Marquette (31)
27. George Mason (33)
31. Michigan (43)
32. Kansas State (34)
34. Florida State (36)
40. Temple (42)
45. Butler (41)
53. Richmond (51)
63. UCLA (66)
65. VCU (85)
83. Morehead State (87)

Best Teams Out

15. Louisville (14)
18. Belmont (10)
22. Maryland (22)
26. Virginia Tech (26)
28. Vanderbilt (24)

Most Impressive in First Round

1. VCU
2. Cincinnati
3. Michigan
4. Purdue
5. Wisconsin

Least Impressive Winners

1. Kentucky
2. Arizona
3. San Diego State
4. Washington
5. Kansas

NBA Player of the Day

LeBron James - MIA - 43 pts, 2 reb, 3 ast, 16-21 FG, 5-7 3P, 6-7 FT
Miami is back on top, and a big game from LeBron is the reason why. The Heat have now won four of their last 5, including wins over the Lakers and Spurs, the two best teams in the West. LeBron scored 23 points in the third quarter alone, and put up the most points he has scored since the 51 he put on Orlando in early February.

Predictions - 19 Mar

Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Cavaliers at Clippers - Clippers by 10
Nuggets at Heat - Heat by 6
Celtics at Hornets - Celtics by 1
Pacers at Grizzlies - Grizz by 5
Bobcats at Spurs - Spurs by 13
76ers at Trail Blazers - Blazers by 3

NCAA Tournament

(5) West Virginia vs. (4) Kentucky - Kentucky by 4
(7) UCLA vs. (2) Florida - Florida by 6
(13) Morehead State vs. (12) Richmond - Richmond by 4
(7) Temple vs. (2) San Diego State - San Diego State by 7
(8) Butler vs. (1) Pittsburgh - Pitt by 8
(11) Gonzaga vs. (3) BYU - BYU by 4
(5) Kansas State vs. (4) Wisconsin - Wisconsin by 6
(6) Cincinnati vs. (3) Connecticut - UConn by 2

Prediction Results - 18 Mar

NBA: 8-4 (.667) 596-249 overall (.705)
NCAA Tournament: 14-2 (.875) 28-8 overall (.778)
Upsets: 3-2 (.600) 158-109 overall (.592)

Friday, March 18, 2011

Predictions - 18 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Bulls at Pacers - Bulls by 5
Nuggets at Magic - Magic by 3
Wizards at Raptors - Raptors by 4
Heat at Hawks - Heat by 4
Knicks at Pistons - Knicks by 2
Bobcats at Thunder - Thunder by 10
Spurs at Mavericks - Mavs by 1
Celtics at Rockets - Celtics by 1
Nets at Bucks - Bucks by 7
Warriors at Suns - Suns by 5
76ers at Kings - 76ers by 4
Timberwolves at Lakers - Lakers by 15

College Basketball

(13) Oakland vs. (4) Texas - Texas by 8
(9) Tennessee vs. (8) Michigan - Michigan by 1
(15) Akron vs. (2) Notre Dame - Notre Dame by 14
(9) Villanova vs. (8) George Mason - Villanova by 1
(12) Memphis vs. (5) Arizona - Arizona by 8
(16) Hampton vs. (1) Duke - Duke by 25
(10) Florida State vs. (7) Texas A&M - Florida State by 1
(16) Texas-San Antonio vs. (1) Ohio State - Ohio State by 27
(16) Boston vs. (1) Kansas - Kansas by 23
(15) Long Island vs. (2) North Carolina - North Carolina by 11
(14) Saint Peter's vs. (3) Purdue - Purdue by 15
(11) Marquette vs. (6) Xavier - Marquette by 1
(9) Illinois vs. (8) UNLV - Illinois by 1
(10) Georgia vs. (7) Washington - Washington by 9
(11) VCU vs. (6) Georgetown - Georgetown by 7
(14) Indiana State vs. (3) Syracuse - Syracuse by 12

Prediction Results - 17 Mar

NBA: 3-0 (1.000) 588-245 overall (.706)
NCAA Tournament: 11-5 (.688) 14-6 overall (.700)
Upsets: 2-3 (.400) 155-107 overall (.592)

Thursday, March 17, 2011

NBA Regular Season and Playoff Predictions - 17 Mar

John Hollinger at ESPN has a daily feature called Playoff Odds in which he uses his own team ranking formula to determine the likelihood of each team making the playoffs, along with a projected final record for each team. To do this, he has a computer play out the remainder of the season 5000 times, then reports the percentage of those times that each team makes the playoffs and their average final record, along with a few other fun numbers. I have used each team's odds of winning each remaining game according to my formula in order to determine each team's likely final regular season record, and the results are eerily similar to Hollinger's. In fact, only 6 teams ended up with a different record with my system, and each was only one game away from his. Here are the final projected standings for each conference, along with their predicted playoff results. Any difference from Hollinger's prediction is noted after the team's projected record.

East

1. Chicago (60-22)
2. Boston (59-23) +1
3. Miami (57-25) +1
4. Orlando (52-30)
5. Atlanta (46-36)
6. Philadelphia (43-39)
7. New York (43-39)
8. Indiana (36-46)

9. Charlotte (34-48) -1
10. Milwaukee (33-49)
11. Detroit (29-53) -1
12. New Jersey (28-54)
13. Toronto (22-60)
14. Washington (20-62)
15. Cleveland (17-65) -1

West

1. San Antonio (64-18) +1
2. LA Lakers (59-23)
3. Dallas (57-25)
4. Oklahoma City (54-28)
5. Denver (50-32)
6. New Orleans (46-36)
7. Portland (46-36)
8. Memphis (45-37)

9. Houston (43-39)
10. Phoenix (41-41)
11. Utah (41-41)
12. Golden State (35-47)
13. LA Clippers (31-51)
14. Minnesota (20-62)
15. Sacramento (20-62)

Playoffs

First Round

Bulls over Pacers in 5
Celtics over Knicks in 5
Heat over 76ers in 6
Magic over Hawks in 6
Spurs over Grizzlies in 6
Lakers over Blazers in 5
Mavericks over Hornets in 7
Nuggets over Thunder in 7

Second Round

Bulls over Magic in 7
Heat over Celtics in 7
Spurs over Nuggets in 7
Lakers over Mavericks in 6

Conference Finals

Bulls over Heat in 7
Lakers over Spurs in 7

Finals

Bulls over Lakers in 7

The Bulls would be able to take advantage of playing on their home court to beat better teams in the final two rounds and win their first championship since Michael Jordan left in 1998. The First Round in the East looks pretty certain, but other than the Spurs and Lakers winning the early rounds out West, anything could happen.

Predictions - 17 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Bulls at Nets - Bulls by 8
Grizzlies at Knicks - Knicks by 1
Cavaliers at Trail Blazers - Blazers by 13

College Basketball

(12) Clemson vs. (5) West Virginia - West Virginia by 1
(9) Old Dominion vs. (8) Butler - Butler by 2
(13) Morehead State vs. (4) Louisville - Louisville by 11
(10) Penn State vs. (7) Temple - Temple by 1
(13) Princeton vs. (4) Kentucky - Kentucky by 13
(16) North Carolina-Asheville vs. (1) Pittsburgh - Pitt by 16
(12) Richmond vs. (5) Vanderbilt - Vandy by 3
(15) Northern Colorado vs. (2) San Diego State - San Diego State by 15
(15) UC-Santa Barbara vs. (2) Florida - Florida by 11
(14) Wofford vs. (3) BYU - BYU by 12
(14) Bucknell vs. (3) Connecticut - UConn by 9
(13) Belmont vs. (4) Wisconsin - Belmont by 1
(10) Michigan State vs. (7) UCLA - Michigan State by 4
(11) Gonzaga vs. (6) Saint John's - Gonzaga by 2
(11) Missouri vs. (6) Cincinnati - Cincinnati by 1
(12) Utah State vs. (5) Kansas State - Utah State by 1

NBA Player of the Day

Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 34 pts, 13 reb, 2 ast, 10-22 FG, 2-3 3P, 12-12 FT
While C.J. Miles' 40 points for Utah was impressive, Dirk contributed more across the board and shot much better than the Jazz guard as he led the Mavericks on a comeback from an 18-point deficit to overtake and beat the Golden State Warriors last night. It was the first time this season that Dirk, an MVP candidate, has been named the Player of the Day.

Prediction Results - 16 Mar

NBA: 9-2 (.818) 585-245 overall (.705)
NCAA Tournament: 1-1 (.500) 3-1 overall (.750)

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

College Basketball Hot and Not

Momentum can be huge in college basketball, especially during the tournament, where there are just 6 games to win, and momentum can carry a team to the title. These are the hottest and coldest teams entering the tournament.

Hot

The hottest team entering the tournament was a little bit of a surprising choice for many, but that doesn't mean they don't belong or deserve a spot. The Clemson Tigers demolished Boston College in the ACC Tournament before nearly upsetting the North Carolina Tar Heels, falling by 5 in overtime. They have already won their play-in game over UAB, and could upset 5th-seed West Virginia tomorrow as well.

Alabama State tore right through the SWAC Tournament last week even though they were only the #4 seed. They blew out the #5 and #6 teams and were able to knock out top seeded Texas Southern as well on their way to their 4th appearance in the Tournament.

Memphis is another team that was able to win its conference tournament despite being seeded fourth, and the championship game was not an easy one, because they were facing #2 seed UTEP in El Paso, but they did just enough to pull off the upset and sneak into the tournament in an otherwise disappointing season.

Duke was the highest-rated ACC team in my rankings heading into their conference tournament, and they took the toughest road possible to get to the title, beating the teams rated 2nd, 3rd, and 4th among ACC teams to win their 3rd straight conference tournament and a #1 seed in March Madness.

Penn State was very impressive in their march to the Big 10 Championship Game, beating two other teams that are still playing before falling to overall #1 seed Ohio State in the title game. It's been over 5 weeks since they lost to a team that was not ranked in the top 10 nationally.

San Diego State won consecutive games over MWC Tournament host UNLV and BYU, the only team to beat the Aztecs this season, as they won their conference tournament and earned a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and it's looking like they'll finally win their first-ever tournament game this weekend.

Cold

The Cincinnati Bearcats were a team that surprised a lot of people this year, but they did not surprise Notre Dame in the Big East Tournament, losing that matchup by 38 points and casting a little doubt on their readiness for the real tournament starting this week.

UCLA went into the Pac 10 tournament as the #2 seed and had the advantage of playing the games in their hometown, but fell to Oregon by 17 points in the very first game. Oregon doesn't even have a winning record, which makes me wonder whether UCLA was just feeling confident of their chances of making the tournament or whether they just aren't that good.

Luckily for Cincinnati, their first round opponent, Missouri, has been almost as cold as the Bearcats lately. The Tigers just barely held off conference doormat Texas Tech in the first round of the Big 12 tourney before overrated Texas A&M whipped them in Kansas City the next night.

Three straight games seemed to be too much for the Marquette Golden Eagles, who defeated Providence and West Virginia before falling hard against Louisville, dropping the game 81-56. They were the final Big East team selected for the tournament, but that doesn't mean they won't be good.

A lot more was expected from Purdue in the Big 10 Tournament, possibly a trip to the championship game against Ohio State, but they fell on day one to a Michigan State team that was fighting for their lives. Getting a #3 seed may have taken the target off their backs a little bit and may enable a long run in March.

Predictions - 16 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Nuggets at Hawks - Nuggets by 1
Pacers at Celtics - Celtics by 10
Raptors at Pistons - Pistons by 4
Suns at Hornets - Hornets by 5
Thunder at Heat - Heat by 6
Magic at Bucks - Magic by 4
Bobcats at Rockets - Rockets by 8
Timberwolves at Jazz - Jazz by 7
Cavaliers at Kings - Kings by 7
Mavericks at Warriors - Mavs by 4
76ers at Clippers - 76ers by 1

College Basketball

(16) Texas-San Antonio vs. (16) Alabama State - Texas-SA by 5
(11) USC vs. (11) VCU - USC by 4

NBA Player of the Day

Joe Johnson - ATL - 36 pts, 5 reb, 2 ast, 13-19 FG, 6-9 3P, 4-4 FT
Johnson came out wearing a new headband, and it appears that it may have been lucky. He scored 28 points in the first half alone, including 6 straight 3-pointers, as Atlanta pulled away from the Bucks early in a game that became a blowout.

Prediction Results - 15 Mar

NBA: 3-1 (.750) 576-243 overall (.703)
NCAA Tournament: 2-0 (1.000)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 153-104 overall (.595)

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Predictions - 15 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Bucks at Hawks - Hawks by 4
Knicks at Pacers - Pacers by 1
Wizards at Bulls - Bulls by 17
Mavericks at Trail Blazers - Mavs by 1

NCAA Tournament

(16) North Carolina-Asheville vs. (16) Arkansas-Little Rock - NC-Asheville by 7
(12) Clemson vs. (12) UAB - Clemson by 4

NBA Player of the Day

Marcus Thornton - SAC - 42 pts, 3 reb, 4 stl, 13-20 FG, 4-7 3P, 12-14 FT
Thornton earned Player of the Day honors for the second time since his trade to Sacramento on a night where he set a new career high in scoring and led the Kings to an upset of their closest rival, the Golden State Warriors. Led by Thornton, the Kings extended their lead to 25 in the third quarter before holding on to defeat the Warriors 129-119.

Prediction Results - 14 Mar

NBA: 6-3 (.667) 573-242 overall (.703)
Upsets: 3-1 (.750) 152-104 overall (.594)

Monday, March 14, 2011

2011 NCAA Tournament Predictions and Odds

The 2011 NCAA Tournament field has been announced, and there were some surprises in this, one of the most wide-open fields in history. This is my breakdown of the tournament, complete with predictions of results, upsets, and snubs.

Worst At-Large Teams Allowed In

These are the worst teams that were selected by the Selection Committee to participate in the tournament without winning their conference tournament. Their ranking according to my formula is in parentheses, followed by their seed and region.

1. VCU (84) 11-SW
2. UCLA (68) 7-SE
3. Georgia (63) 10-E
4. UAB (62) 12-E
5. Tennessee (55) 9-W
6. Penn State (53) 10-W
7. USC (49) 11-SW
8. Xavier (48) 6-E

Surprisingly, two of these teams not only made the field, but were awarded higher seeds. Look for most of these teams to fall in the first round.

Best Teams Left Out

A big deal is always made about which teams should have been in and which should have been left out. The top six teams on this list are the ones I would have included at the expense of the top six on the previous list. Once again, their ranking according to my formula is in parentheses.

1. Maryland (23)
2. Virginia Tech (27)
3. Saint Mary's (28)
4. New Mexico (38)
5. Washington State (42)
6. Colorado (47)
7. Northwestern (51)
8. Duquesne (52)

Virginia Tech, Saint Mary's, and Colorado were the three most talked-about snubs on ESPN yesterday, but there were a couple of others that were worth noticing. Each one had some major holes in their resume, but also had enough good points that they should have been in.

Most Underseeded

These are the teams that I feel were seeded far too low for their talent, and in most cases it will allow those teams to surprise some higher-seeded teams.

1. Belmont
2T. Washington
2T. Gonzaga
2T. Utah State
5. Illinois
6T. Texas
6T. UNLV
6T. Marquette
6T. Missouri
6T. Clemson

Most Overseeded

These are the teams that least deserved the seeding they were awarded, and it could set them up to fall earlier than expected.

1T. Xavier
1T. UCLA
3T. Florida
3T. Saint John's
5T. Kansas State
5T. Temple
5T. Tennessee
5T. Old Dominion

You'll notice that a lot of these teams are the same ones on the list of worst teams allowed into the tournament, which is not a coincidence. Some of these teams were seeded highly even though they shouldn't have even been in, and others, like Florida, just should have been seeded lower.

Regions With the Most Teams Seeded Incorrectly

This is a measure of how many teams in each region are seeded at least 3 spots below or above where they should be.

Southeast: 8
East: 4
West: 3
Southwest: 2

You'll notice that nearly half of the teams in the Southeast Region have been seeded poorly, with high seeds like Florida, Saint John's and UCLA too high and low seeds like Belmont, Gonzaga, and Utah State severely underseeded, which should make that region a very fun one to watch if you love upsets.

Number of Upsets Predicted in the First Round

Technically it's now called the second round, but I'm a traditionalist. The likely number of upsets you should expect to see in the first round is 10.2, which means that the number will almost definitely fall between 8 and 13. Some of those are much more likely than others, and some will come as a complete shock, like Ohio over Georgetown last year.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

These are the 10 upsets that I believe are most likely to occur in the first round, with the likelihood of the upset happening listed after the matchup.

1. (10) Michigan State over (7) UCLA - 57.9%
2. (11) Gonzaga over (6) Saint John's - 57.0%
3. (11) Marquette over (6) Xavier - 53.7%
4. (12) Utah State over (5) Kansas State - 52.0%
5. (9) Illinois over (8) UNLV - 51.5%
6. (13) Belmont over (4) Wisconsin - 51.3%
7. (10) Florida State over (7) Texas A&M - 51.0%
8. (9) Villanova over (8) George Mason - 49.7%
9. (11) Missouri over (6) Cincinnati - 49.3%
10. (10) Penn State over (7) Temple - 46.9%

The odds of all of these upsets happening is slim, but if you're looking for a few good upsets for your bracket, this is a good place to start. There will most likely be even more than this, but these are the ones that would surprise me least.

Most Likely Cinderellas

These are the lower-seeded teams most likely to make it through the first weekend of the tournament, with their odds of making the Sweet 16 after their name.

1. Belmont - 31.7%
2. Michigan State - 29.0%
3. Gonzaga - 25.9%
4. Marquette - 24.6%
5. Missouri - 24.3%
6. Florida State - 22.5%
7. Utah State - 20.7%
8. Richmond - 16.8%
9. Illinois - 16.0%
10. Penn State - 14.8%

There are a few of these teams (Missouri, Richmond, and Penn State) that I'm not even picking to win in the first round, but they're good enough that if they pull off the first round upset they will most likely make it to the Sweet 16.

Number of #1 Seeds in the Final Four

The number of #1 seeds I'm predicting to make the Final Four is 1.3, which means that 1 or 2 will be very likely, but 0, 3, or 4 will most likely not happen.

Number of Double Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16

3.3, which means that the number will likely fall somewhere between 2 and 5.

Odds of a #1 Seed Winning the Tournament

44.8%

Most Likely to Make the Sweet 16

These are the 10 teams most likely to make the sweet 16, with their odds of advancing that far after their name, followed by their seed and region.

1. Duke - 82.2% - 1W
2. Ohio State - 77.6% - 1E
3. Kansas - 69.6% - 1SW
4. Pittsburgh - 63.8% - 1SE
5. San Diego State - 62.4% - 2W
6. Purdue - 56.2% - 3SW
7. Kentucky - 55.5% - 4E
8. Notre Dame - 52.3% - 2SW
9. BYU - 51.2% - 3SE
10. Syracuse - 50.4% - 3E

You'll notice that 2 of the #2 seeds, North Carolina and Florida, don't appear on this list, while there is a #4 (Kentucky) on the list. The most likely of the #2's to advance happens to be the one from the non-power conference that many felt was unworthy of its ranking.

Most Likely to make the Final Four

1. Duke - 39.8% - 1W
2. Ohio State - 37.3% - 1E
3. Kansas - 34.1% - 1SW
4. Pittsburgh - 22.3% - 1SE
5. San Diego State - 19.7% - 2W
6. BYU - 19.0% - 3SE
7. Purdue - 16.0% - 3SW
8. Kentucky - 14.8% - 4E
9. Texas - 13.1% - 4W
10. Notre Dame - 12.5% - 2SW

The top 5 remain the same from the Sweet 16 odds, but BYU's odds of making the Final Four are much higher than some of the competition from other regions, due almost entirely to the level of competition they could possibly face on their way there. Texas also moved up on this list, joining Duke and San Diego State to eat up the odds in the West Region.

Most Likely to Win the Championship

1. Duke - 15.7% - 1W
2. Ohio State - 14.5% - 1E
3. Kansas - 10.3% - 1SW
4. San Diego State - 5.5% - 2W
5. Pittsburgh - 4.3% - 1SE
6. Kentucky - 4.0% - 4E
7. BYU - 3.6% - 3SE
8. Texas - 3.6% - 4W
9. Purdue - 3.1% - 3SW
10. Washington - 3.1% - 7E

There is a very interesting team making an appearance at the bottom of this list. Washington is the main reason that North Carolina doesn't appear on any of these lists, because the two teams will likely face each other in the second round. San Diego State is the only #2 seed among the top 10 most likely champions, a sign that the #2's were poorly selected.

Overall Bracket

Upset picks are in italics.

First Round

(1) Ohio State
(9) Villanova
(5) West Virginia
(4) Kentucky
(11) Marquette
(3) Syracuse
(7) Washington
(2) North Carolina

(1) Duke
(8) Michigan
(5) Arizona
(4) Texas
(11) Missouri
(3) Connecticut
(10) Penn State
(2) San Diego State

(1) Kansas
(9) Illinois
(5) Vanderbilt
(4) Louisville
(6) Georgetown
(3) Purdue
(10) Florida State
(2) Notre Dame

(1) Pittsburgh
(8) Butler
(12) Utah State
(13) Belmont
(11) Gonzaga
(3) BYU
(10) Michigan State
(2) Florida

Sweet 16

(1) Ohio State
(4) Kentucky
(3) Syracuse
(7) Washington

(1) Duke
(4) Texas
(3) Connecticut
(2) San Diego State

(1) Kansas
(4) Louisville
(3) Purdue
(2) Notre Dame

(1) Pittsburgh
(13) Belmont
(3) BYU
(2) Florida

Elite Eight

(1) Ohio State
(7) Washington

(1) Duke
(2) San Diego State

(1) Kansas
(3) Purdue

(1) Pittsburgh
(3) BYU

Final Four

(1) Ohio State
(1) Duke
(1) Kansas
(3) BYU

Championship

Duke over Kansas

Before the bracket was announced, I did not think that BYU had much of a chance to make the Final Four, but the bracket was set up in a way that makes the potential matchups very favorable for the Cougars. I don't think that 3 #1's will make the Final Four, but I could not decide which of the other 3 would be left out. On a side note, if Duke were to miss the Final Four, I would take Ohio State over Kansas in the championship game.

NBA Rankings - 14 Mar

It's amazing how quickly things can turn around in the NBA. A team can look totally dead one week and snap out of it a week later. That is the case with this week's number one team, which had lost every game just a week ago, but turned that around to pound some good teams this week. They may have blown their shot at the top record in the East, but they just might be the best team. Here are this week's rankings, with team name followed by weekly record, overall record, rating, and previous ranking.

Contenders

1. Miami (2-1) (45-21) -6.92 (3)
2. San Antonio (3-0) (54-12) -6.83 (2)
3. LA Lakers (2-1) (47-20) -6.55 (1)
4. Boston (1-2) (47-17) -6.50 (4)
5. Chicago (4-0) (47-18) -6.47 (5)
6. Orlando (2-2) (42-25) -5.69 (6)

Average Teams

7. Denver (2-0) (39-27) -4.27 (8)
8. Dallas (2-2) (47-19) -4.06 (7)
9. Oklahoma City (3-1) (42-23) -3.34 (9)
10. New Orleans (2-1) (39-29) -2.41 (10)
11. Houston (1-2) (33-34) -1.77 (12)
12. Memphis (1-2) (36-31) -1.52 (11)
13. Portland (2-2) (37-29) -1.00 (14)
14. Philadelphia (2-2) (34-32) -0.89 (13)
15. New York (2-2) (34-31) -0.39 (15)
16. Atlanta (1-2) (38-28) -0.36 (17)
17. Phoenix (1-2) (33-31) 0.34 (16)
18. Indiana (1-3) (28-38) 1.04 (19)
19. Utah (1-3) (34-33) 1.14 (18)
20. Milwaukee (3-1) (26-39) 1.23 (20)
21. LA Clippers (3-1) (26-41) 1.80 (21)
22. Golden State (3-1) (30-36) 1.96 (22)

In Limbo

23. Charlotte (2-2) (28-38) 3.19 (23)

Crappy Teams

24. Detroit (0-3) (23-44) 4.27 (24)
25. Minnesota (2-2) (17-51) 5.05 (26)
26. New Jersey (2-0) (21-43) 5.28 (27)
27. Sacramento (0-4) (15-49) 5.39 (25)
28. Toronto (1-2) (18-48) 5.69 (28)

Even Worse

29. Washington (0-2) (16-48) 7.31 (29)

Cleveland

30. Cleveland (0-3) (12-53) 9.55 (30)

With the Clippers and Warriors getting hot and Detroit going cold, the Occasional Competitors category was dissolved this week, with only Charlotte not sure which way to go (before last night's win they would have been with the Crappy Teams). Washington proved themselves unworthy even to associate with the Crappy Teams, but they still aren't as bad as Cleveland.

Drunk With Power

The Denver Nuggets followed up a 19-point win in Phoenix with a 30-point blowout of the Detroit Pistons, improving their record to 7-2 since Carmelo was traded away, while the Knicks are just 6-5 in that same time. The #4 seed might not be out of reach for the Nuggets.

The Clippers just went 3-1 on a 4-game East Coast road trip, including one very impressive win in Boston on Wednesday. They are now 5-1 in March and moved up into the Average Teams this week for the first time.

The Golden State Warriors kept pace with the Clippers this week, going 3-1 and losing to the same New Jersey team that knocked off the Clippers in overtime. The Warriors' signature win this week was over Orlando in a game that featured a huge comeback from an early 21-point deficit.

Green With Envy

Memphis had been one of the hotter teams in the league for a while, until they lost a game they should have won against New York. They followed that one with a blowout loss to a Miami team that had been ice cold entering this week, and you can be sure that the Suns, Jazz, and Rockets are thankful that they still have a chance to catch the Grizzlies.

Speaking of the Jazz, they are becoming regulars on this list thanks to a 7-20 record over the past 2 months. They were 27-13 back then, and they had everyone talking about all of their great comebacks. They could use a few now.

The Washington Wizards got blown out by Milwaukee, Detroit, and the Clippers this week, and it's been years since a blowout against any one of those teams would be considered acceptable. Maybe they're trying to pass the Cavaliers for the worst record so they can have a better chance at the lottery again.

NBA Player of the Day

Stephen Curry - GSW - 24 pts, 9 reb, 6 ast, 2 stl, 8-15 FG, 4-6 3P, 4-4 FT
Curry led the Warriors in points, rebounds, and assists last night from the point guard position and the Warriors beat up on Minnesota 100-77. It was the first time in 54 games that Minnesota forward Kevin Love did not record a double-double.

Predictions - 14 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Celtics at Nets - Celtics by 9
Thunder at Wizards - Thunder by 8
Nuggets at Hornets - Hornets by 1
Spurs at Heat - Heat by 3
Clippers at Grizzlies - Grizz by 6
Suns at Rockets - Rockets by 5
76ers at Jazz - Jazz by 1
Warriors at Kings - Warriors by 1
Magic at Lakers - Lakers by 4

Prediction Results - 13 Mar

NBA: 4-2 (.667) 567-239 overall (.703)
College Basketball: 3-0 (1.000) 577-150 overall (.794)
Upsets: 1-1 (.500) 149-103 overall (.591)

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Predictions - 13 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Thunder at Cavaliers - Thunder by 10
Bobcats at Raptors - Raptors by 1
Magic at Suns - Magic by 2
Bucks at Celtics - Celtics by 9
Pacers at Knicks - Knicks by 5
Timberwolves at Warriors - Warriors by 5

College Basketball

Penn State vs. (1) Ohio State - Ohio State by 13
(5) Duke vs. (7) North Carolina - Duke by 6
(16) Kentucky vs. (12) Florida - Kentucky by 4

Prediction Results - 12 Mar

NBA: 8-1 (.889) 563-237 overall (.704)
College Basketball: 8-3 (.727) 574-150 overall (.793)
Upsets: 2-1 (.667) 148-102 overall (.592)

Saturday, March 12, 2011

NBA MVP Rankings - 2006-2007

In 2007, the Dallas Mavericks ran away with the league's best record in the regular season, then were ambushed in the first round by the Golden State Warriors, one of the few times a top seed has gone down in the first round. Dirk Nowitzki won the MVP narrowly over his good friend Steve Nash, preventing the Suns' star from taking home his third straight trophy. The Spurs eventually went on to win the championship in a sweep over LeBron James and the Cavaliers. These are my rankings of which players should have won and been in contention for each of the major offensive awards that year. Actual rankings determined by voters in parentheses.

Most Valuable Player

1. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 24.6 pts, 8.9 reb, 3.4 ast (1)
Statistically, Dirk was actually down slightly from the year before, but the Mavericks were unquestionably up, losing only 15 games in the regular season and finishing 6 games ahead of Phoenix for the best record in the league, and Dirk was definitely one of the top 5 players in the entire league. No contest here.

2. Tim Duncan - SAS - 20.0 pts, 10.6 reb, 3.4 ast (4)
One season after averaging fewer than 20 points per game for the first time in his career, Duncan bounced back with his final 20-point season, and in the process earned his 4th championship with the Spurs. Even though he had dropped off a little from his prime, he was still the driving force behind the NBA champs.

3. Steve Nash - PHX - 18.6 pts, 3.5 reb, 11.6 ast (2)
Nash led the league in assists for the third straight year while setting a new career high in that category, and he also nearly matched his career high in scoring, which he set the previous year, all while guiding the Suns to the league's #2 record and another disappointing playoff loss to San Antonio.

4. LeBron James - CLE - 27.3 pts, 6.7 reb, 6.0 ast (5)
James' averages dropped in nearly every category, but the Cavaliers were able to obtain the second seed in the Eastern Conference, which they used to upset the Detroit Pistons to earn the franchise's first trip to the NBA Finals. Even at age 22, James was already one of the best players in the entire league.

5. Tracy McGrady - HOU - 24.6 pts, 5.3 reb, 6.5 ast (6)
The former league scoring leader got his name into the MVP discussion for the final time in a great career after the Rockets lost Yao Ming for a large portion of the regular season. McGrady was there to pick up the slack, and Houston earned the 5th seed in the West and nearly beat the Jazz in the first round.

6. Carlos Boozer - UTA - 20.9 pts, 11.7 reb, 3.0 ast (9)
Boozer set new career highs in scoring, rebounds, assists, and field goal percentage after missing most of the previous season, and led Utah to the 4th seed in the playoffs and a trip to the Western Conference Finals. It was his first healthy season in Utah, and it gave the Jazz a lot of hope for the future.

7. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 31.6 pts, 5.7 reb, 5.4 ast (3)
Kobe led the league in scoring for the second straight year, but the Lakers narrowly reached the playoffs, then lost 4-1 in the first round to the Phoenix Suns. It finally became apparent that Kobe couldn't do it alone, and the Lakers traded for Pau Gasol the next season, and Kobe won his first MVP.

8. Yao Ming - HOU - 25.0 pts, 9.4 reb, 2.0 blk (NR)
He may have missed 34 games due to injury, but when he was on the court, he was virtually unstoppable. He had his best season statistically, and Houston was a real threat in the West until he went down, and he's only had one healthy season since.

9. Chris Bosh - TOR - 22.6 pts, 10.7 reb, 2.5 ast (7)
Bosh improved upon the career highs he set the previous season in scoring and rebounding and the Raptors were able to win their division behind their young star. Bosh was incredibly steady for the remainder of his time in Toronto, but the Raptors were never as good again.

10. Carmelo Anthony - DEN - 28.9 pts, 6.0 reb, 3.8 ast (15)
Carmelo increased his scoring average yet again to set a career high that is still standing as he guided the Nuggets into the playoffs, where they lost to the eventual champions in the first round. Anthony finished behind only Kobe Bryant in scoring average, but still didn't garner many MVP votes.

Rookie of the Year

1. Brandon Roy - POR - 16.8 pts, 4.4 reb, 4.0 ast (1)
Despite missing 25 games due to injury, there was no other rookie in the league that was on the same playing field with Brandon Roy in 2007. He was a starter almost immediately and led all rookies in scoring.

2. Randy Foye - MIN - 10.1 pts, 2.7 reb, 2.8 ast (5)
Foye was named the Western Conference Rookie of the Month in December, and he continued to improve throughout the season, ending up as the only major rookie to play in every game in the regular season, although he was no match for Roy.

3. Rudy Gay - MEM - 10.8 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.3 ast (3)
Gay had a decent rookie season, which he immediately followed up with a season where he was squarely in the Most Improved Player discussion. Being allowed to play good minutes as a rookie definitely contributed to his quick ascension to stardom.

4. Rajon Rondo - BOS - 6.4 pts, 3.7 reb, 3.8 ast (12)
Rondo didn't get noticed by many people during his rookie year, but the Celtics sure knew what they had. In his second year he became the team's full-time starting point guard, and in his fifth season he became an All-Star.

5. Adam Morrison - CHA - 11.8 pts, 2.9 reb, 2.1 ast (4)
Morrison looked like a great prospect coming out of Gonzaga, which is why the Bobcats took him with the third overall pick in the draft, but he shot only 37.6% as a rookie, and that has turned out to be his career high so far in a very disappointing start to his career.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Manu Ginobili - SAS - 16.5 pts, 4.4 reb, 3.5 ast (2)
Ginobili's minutes were his lowest since his rookie season, but he set a new career high in scoring while coming off the bench for the majority of the season for the Spurs, who went on to win the NBA title, thanks in part to Manu's willingness to take on a new role.

2. Leandro Barbosa - PHX - 18.1 pts, 2.7 reb, 4.0 ast (1)
Barbosa recorded new career highs in nearly every category in his breakout season, with a 5 point per game increase coinciding with a 5 minute per game increase in playing time. He has not come close to matching his production from that season in the four years since.

3. Josh Childress - ATL - 13.0 pts, 6.2 reb, 2.3 ast (11)
Childress missed quite a bit of time with injuries, but when he was healthy he was Atlanta's best player off the bench, and the result was his best professional season. One year later, he decided that the Hawks weren't offering to pay him enough, and he left to play in Greece, which has not payed dividends yet.

4. Corey Maggette - LAC - 16.9 pts, 5.9 reb, 2.8 ast (7)
After missing much of the previous season with an injury, Maggette was brought off the bench for most of his comeback season, and the results weren't bad, although they weren't up to his usual standards. The following year he returned to the starting lineup and averaged 22.1 points per game for the Clippers.

5. David Lee - NYK - 10.7 pts, 10.4 reb, 1.8 ast (4)
Lee was the only bench player to average a double-double for the season, and even with time missed due to injury he was one of the best young forwards in the league in just his second season.

Most Improved Player

1. Amare Stoudemire - PHX - +11.7 pts, +4.3 reb, +0.3 ast (16)
A lot of voters didn't vote for Amare because he had previously been a superstar player, but the fact that he returned from two major knee surgeries to make the All-NBA First Team the next season has to earn him some recognition. If there were still a Comeback Player of the Year award, it would be his, but in its absence, this award will have to do.

2. Al Jefferson - MIN - +8.1 pts, +5.9 reb, +0.8 ast (6)
Jefferson was the main piece in the trade that sent Kevin Garnett to Boston, and he showed why in his first season leading a team, doubling his averages in each of the three major statistical categories, and his improvement was just beginning.

3. David Lee - NYK - +5.6 pts, +5.9 reb, +1.2 ast (10)
Lee had just as much a right to this award as he did to the Sixth Man award, showing increases across the board and shooting 60% for the season, all while coming off the bench for the Knicks. Just three years later he had nearly doubled his scoring average again after he became a starter.

4. Mikki Moore - NJN - +6.5 pts, +2.3 reb, +0.3 ast (12)
In his first season as a starter, Moore led the league in shooting percentage and nearly tripled his scoring average in his lone season in New Jersey. The next season he started for Sacramento with similar results, but has since started to show his age.

5. Monta Ellis - GSW - +9.7 pts, +1.1 reb, +2.5 ast (1)
Ellis may have won the award given by the league's voters, but his only significant improvement was in scoring, which is not difficult to do for the Warriors. His increase in production was impressive, but many other deserving players were overlooked in the process.

NBA Player of the Day - 11 Mar

Monta Ellis - GSW - 39 pts, 6 reb, 11 ast, 4 stl, 14-24 FG, 7-9 3P, 4-5 FT
While I didn't award Ellis the 2007 Most Improved Player award, I did give him today's Player of the Day award after he shot the lights out as the Warriors took down the heavily-favored Magic last night in a game that featured an NBA-record 36 3-point field goals, 7 of which came off the hands of Golden State's star.

Predictions - 12 Mar

Upset picks are in italics.
Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Grizzlies at Heat - Heat by 7
Trail Blazers at Hawks - Hawks by 2
Clippers at Wizards - Clippers by 2
Kings at Hornets - Hornets by 10
Jazz at Bulls - Bulls by 10
76ers at Bucks - Bucks by 1
Spurs at Rockets - Spurs by 2
Lakers at Mavericks - Mavs by 1
Pistons at Nuggets - Nuggets by 11

College Basketball

Michigan vs. (1) Ohio State - Ohio State by 12
(10) Texas vs. (2) Kansas - Kansas by 8
Virginia Tech vs. (5) Duke - Duke by 15
(6) San Diego State vs. (8) BYU - BYU by 1
Clemson vs. (7) North Carolina - North Carolina by 10
(24) Vanderbilt vs. (12) Florida - Florida by 1
(19) Connecticut vs. (14) Louisville - Louisville by 2
Washington vs. (15) Arizona - Washington by 4
(16) Kentucky vs. Alabama - Kentucky by 8
Boise State vs. (17) Utah State - Utah State by 5
Richmond vs. (25) Temple - Temple by 2

Prediction Results - 11 Mar

NBA: 4-5 (.444) 555-236 overall (.702)
College Basketball: 12-8 (.600) 566-147 overall (.794)
Upsets: 0-3 (.000) 146-101 overall (.591)

Friday, March 11, 2011

NBA MVP Rankings - 11 Mar

Miami's recent struggles have caused a little shakeup at the top of the standings, but it wasn't quite enough to cause a change at #1. There are a few new faces in the rankings this week, most notably on top of the Sixth Man rankings, where one player jumped to the top of the list after becoming eligible for the award this week. Here are this week's rankings, with last week's rankings in parentheses.

Most Valuable Player

1. LeBron James - MIA - 26.2 pts, 7.6 reb, 7.1 ast (1)
LeBron's lead in the MVP race is shrinking fast, with Miami's losing streak coupled with the fact that James only scored 19 in the win over Los Angeles that snapped the streak. The win over the Lakers still did enough for him to maintain this spot, but any more losses could threaten that.

2. Derrick Rose - CHI - 24.5 pts, 4.3 reb, 8.1 ast (3)
Four straight 20-point games in four straight wins over quality opponents has thrust Rose into the national spotlight and made him the popular choice for MVP. The Bulls now have a better record than Miami, but LeBron's statistical edge was just enough to hold off the charging Bull.

3. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 25.5 pts, 6.7 reb, 4.4 ast (2)
Wade had 38 points against Portland on Tuesday, but that wasn't enough to get a win for Miami, and he didn't score over 20 in any of the Heat's other games this week, and the result was a drop from the #2 spot he has held for weeks.

4. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 25.1 pts, 5.2 reb, 4.8 ast (4)
Kobe was very solid in LA's last 4 wins, scoring 26 points per game while playing only 31.5 minutes, but an increase in playing time didn't bring an increase in scoring in the Lakers' loss to Miami yesterday. He's still got his name right in the middle of the MVP discussion once again, but it will take an incredible run from the Lakers for him to reach the top.

5. Pau Gasol - LAL - 18.6 pts, 10.4 reb, 3.5 ast (6)
Gasol recorded two more double-doubles this week as the Lakers extended their post-All-Star winning streak, but managed only 5 rebounds while losing to Miami, a team that is not known for having powerful big men.

6. Kevin Durant - OKC - 28.2 pts, 7.3 reb, 2.8 ast (5)
Durant's ankle must have been bothering him on Sunday in Phoenix, when he scored 18 points on 3 of 14 shooting, but he appears to be back at full strength after going 13 for 26 with 34 points against Philadelphia on Wednesday.

7. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 23.0 pts, 6.6 reb, 2.5 ast (7)
Last night was the 10th straight game that Dirk scored at least 20 points for the Mavericks, but they lost twice this week, the first time that's happened since the week he returned from the worst injury of his career.

8. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 22.4 pts, 4.8 reb, 8.5 ast (9)
Just when it looked like he was in danger of exiting these rankings, Westbrook roared back with 4 straight games of at least 27 points and 7 assists, 3 of which were wins over teams fighting to make the playoffs. You just can't count this guy out.

9. Dwight Howard - ORL - 23.0 pts, 13.9 reb, 2.3 blk (8)
Howard missed Monday's game against Portland because of a league-imposed suspension due to receiving his 16th technical foul of the season, but he wasn't all that impressive in the two games he played either, one of which was a loss to Chicago and the other a close win over Sacramento.

10. LaMarcus Aldridge - POR - 22.4 pts, 8.8 reb, 2.1 ast (NR)
Aldridge scored 26 points in Portland's blowout victory over Charlotte before posting similar numbers in back-to-back road upsets of the Florida teams earlier this week. His recent play, along with the fact that he's managed to stay healthy while playing for Portland, has to insert him into the MVP discussion.

Slipping out:
Amare Stoudemire

Rookie of the Year

1. Blake Griffin - LAC - 22.5 pts, 12.4 reb, 3.7 ast (1)
Griffin had a little bit of a down week, but whatever he's doing is working, because the Clippers are now are now on a season-long 4-game winning streak, the most recent of which was a win in Boston over the East-leading Celtics.

2. John Wall - WAS - 15.5 pts, 4.4 reb, 8.8 ast (2)
Wall has pretty much wrapped up the #2 spot in the rookie rankings at this point. The only thing that could really hurt his standing would be another injury, but otherwise he is looking pretty safe.

3. DeMarcus Cousins - SAC - 14.3 pts, 8.5 reb, 2.1 ast (3)
Cousins had a monster week, putting up 18 and 18 in Sacramento's loss to Utah, then put up 20 and 11 against Houston and 29 points against Orlando. Sadly, all 3 games were losses. In fact, last time the Kings won, Cousins scored only 5 points. Coincidence?

4. Landry Fields - NYK - 10.2 pts, 6.9 reb, 2.0 ast (4)
If winning were a determining factor for this award, Fields would be right up with Griffin at the top of these rankings, because no other rookie has contributed as much to a potential playoff team this season, and only Griffin could possibly claim that he's been responsible for more wins.

5. Greg Monroe - DET - 8.5 pts, 7.0 reb, 1.0 ast (5)
The Pistons, much like the Kings, have been playing better lately without their star rookie on the court, but the additional playing time on a team that is not going anywhere this year has done a lot to help Monroe develop into a good player.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Lamar Odom - LAL - 14.4 pts, 8.8 reb, 2.9 ast (NR)
Odom's minutes are not always steady, but he always is when he's on the court. In the past 5 games, he has scored between 11 and 15 in every contest, even with his minutes fluctuating from 31 clear down to 19.

2. Jason Terry - DAL - 16.4 pts, 1.9 reb, 4.3 ast (1)
17.8 points per game over 5 games while shooting 49% and not missing a free throw still wasn't enough for Terry to stay at the top, because Lamar Odom has now started fewer than half of Los Angeles' games this season. Unless the Laker is reinserted into the starting lineup, the award is his to lose.

3. Ramon Sessions - CLE - 12.6 pts, 3.0 reb, 5.4 ast (2)
Sessions' minutes and production have both started to drop off lately, but you can't ignore what he did while he was filling in as Cleveland's starting point guard. There are quite a few teams out there that would love to have him in their lineup, but he's still got 3 years remaining on his Cavs contract.

4. Thaddeus Young - PHI - 12.5 pts, 5.3 reb, 1.1 (4)
Young managed to maintain his footing while the rest of the sixth man field slipped to make room for Lamar Odom, and he did it by averaging 18 points and 8 rebounds in the 76ers' three wins this week.

5. Shawn Marion - DAL - 11.7 pts, 6.8 reb, 1.3 ast (3)
Last night's 22 points weren't enough to make up for the previous 3 games, in which he scored a total of 26, but it was enough to keep him above J.R. Smith for the final spot in the sixth man rankings for another week.

Most Improved Player

1. Dorell Wright - GSW - +8.8 pts, +2.1 reb, +1.8 ast (1)
Wright only averaged 11 points per game this week, which was nearly enough to knock him off his perch atop the most improved rankings, but he's still holding the slimmest of leads over Minnesota's Kevin Love as of today.

2. Kevin Love - MIN - +6.8 pts, +4.8 reb, +0.2 ast (2)
Love broke Moses Malone's consecutive double-double record this week, and his new record now stands at 52 games, or 63% of a full season. The league rebounding leader has now grabbed at least 17 boards in each of the last 5 games, and has scored at least 16 in each of those contests also.

3. D.J. Augustin - CHA - +8.0 pts, +1.6 reb, +3.5 ast (3)
Augustin is being bothered by an ankle injury, and it definitely slowed him down against Chicago, a game he finished with just 6 points and 3 assists. The Bobcats seem to have given up hope of making the playoffs, despite the fact that they are still in 9th in the East.

4. Nick Young - WAS - +9.3 pts, +1.4 reb, +0.6 ast (4)
Washington's only win in the last ten games came in the one game that they were missing Young, their leading scorer. That's never a good sign, even if the win was just over Minnesota.

5. Jrue Holiday - PHI - +5.9 pts, +1.4 reb, +2.5 ast (NR)
Holiday's 22 points against Oklahoma City on Wednesday was his highest output in nearly a month, and his third highest of the year 2011. He has become a major contributor to Philadelphia's success this year.

NBA Player of the Day

Shawn Marion - DAL - 22 pts, 8 reb, 2 ast, 2 stl, 10-15 FG, 2-2 FT
Marion may have slipped in the sixth man rankings today, but it wasn't because of last night's game. Marion took over the game for Dallas as they dismantled the Knicks, who are led by Marion's former coach, Mike D'Antoni.