Showing posts with label Monta Ellis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Monta Ellis. Show all posts

Monday, March 28, 2011

NBA Rankings - 28 Mar

The Bulls and Lakers are both getting hot at the right time, and with the way they've been playing since the All-Star break, it would be no surprise to see the two of them face off in the NBA Finals this June. Both are led by star guards with MVP credentials and have multiple All-Star quality big men surrounding them, and they appear to be on a crash course. Here are the latest rankings, with team name followed by weekly record, overall record, rating, and previous ranking.

1. Chicago (4-0) (53-19) -7.01 (4)
2. Miami (3-0) (51-22) -6.92 (1)
3. LA Lakers (3-0) (53-20) -6.72 (2)
4. San Antonio (1-3) (57-16) -6.28 (3)
5. Boston (2-2) (51-21) -5.44 (5)
6. Orlando (3-0) (47-26) -5.32 (6)
7. Denver (3-0) (44-29) -4.92 (8)
8. Dallas (3-0) (52-21) -4.71 (7)
9. Oklahoma City (3-0) (48-24) -3.86 (9)
10. Memphis (3-1) (41-33) -2.71 (10)
11. Houston (1-1) (38-35) -2.43 (12)
12. New Orleans (2-1) (42-32) -2.13 (11)
13. Portland (2-1) (42-31) -2.00 (13)
14. Philadelphia (1-2) (37-36) -1.12 (14)
15. Phoenix (1-3) (36-36) -0.17 (16)
16. New York (0-4) (35-38) -0.16 (15)
17. Atlanta (2-2) (42-32) -0.01 (17)
18. Milwaukee (1-2) (29-43) 1.19 (19)
19. Utah (0-4) (36-38) 1.34 (18)
20. Indiana (2-2) (32-42) 1.58 (20)
21. Golden State (2-2) (32-42) 2.40 (22)
22. LA Clippers (2-1) (29-45) 2.53 (21)
23. Charlotte (2-1) (30-42) 3.34 (23)
24. Detroit (1-2) (26-47) 3.59 (24)
25. Sacramento (3-1) (20-52) 4.59 (25)
26. Minnesota (0-3) (17-57) 5.01 (28)
27. New Jersey (1-3) (23-49) 5.35 (27)
28. Toronto (0-4) (20-53) 6.11 (26)
29. Washington (0-4) (17-55) 7.76 (29)
30. Cleveland (1-3) (14-58) 9.73 (30)

Hot

The Chicago Bulls are the hottest team in basketball right now. This week they demolished the Kings and Hawks before beating Memphis and Milwaukee on back-to-back nights. They were the only team to beat either Sacramento or Memphis this week, and Derrick Rose is looking more like an MVP every time he takes the court.

This may seem like a joke, but the Timberwolves were the second hottest team this week, without even winning a game. They started the week with two eight-point losses at Dallas and Oklahoma City, both of which will enjoy home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. After that, they nearly pulled off a huge upset against the Celtics back in Minneapolis last night, falling by 3 points, and they all of that without their best player.

The Golden State Warriors didn't play that well on their trip to Texas early in the week, getting blown out in San Antonio and Houston, but then they returned home to destroy two of the worst teams in the East. They may have been eliminated from the playoffs last night, but if they were in the East they would be tied for the 8th spot today.

Denver has been on fire since losing the Carmelo distraction last month. This week they beat up Washington and Toronto and upset the Spurs in between. They haven't lost at home since February 7 and are 12-4 since the trade.

Cold

Toronto West Coast trip took a turn for the worse this week, with blowout losses in Oakland and Denver and close losses in Phoenix and Los Angeles (to the Clippers, not the Lakers). The schedule isn't going to be any nicer for them now that they're heading back East, with games against Chicago and Orlando this week.

Utah's slim playoff chances disappeared with an 0-4 week against teams currently in the playoffs. It was probably a good thing they lost all 4, because if they had made the playoffs, they would have been embarrassed by an even better team in the first round.

New York's slide with Carmelo in the lineup continued this week, with 4 losses in a row to run their losing streak up to 6. Among those 6 losses, only 2 came against teams that will likely be in the playoffs this year.

Washington's trip out West didn't go much better than Toronto's, with the only difference being in the quality of one opponent (Portland rather than Phoenix). The Wizards still have just one road win all season, and if they fail to win another, they will tie the all-time record for worst road team.

NBA Player of the Day

Monta Ellis - GSW - 37 pts, 7 reb, 13 ast, 14-24 FG, 4-6 3P, 5-7 FT
Golden State is no longer mathematically alive in the playoff race, but Ellis didn't care. He played all 48 minutes of yesterday's game and had what may have been his best game of the season as the Warriors beat the Washington Wizards to keep from being their second road victim of the year.

Predictions - 28 Mar

Possible upsets are underlined.

NBA

Celtics at Pacers - Celtics by 4
Bucks at Bobcats - Bobcats by 1
Magic at Knicks - Magic by 2
76ers at Bulls - Bulls by 9
Trail Blazers at Spurs - Spurs by 7
Wizards at Jazz - Jazz by 9

Prediction Results - 27 Mar

NBA: 7-2 (.778) 648-264 overall (.711)
NCAA Tournament: 1-1 (.500) 42-22 overall (.656)
Upsets: 1-0 (1.000) 165-114 overall (.591)

Saturday, March 12, 2011

NBA MVP Rankings - 2006-2007

In 2007, the Dallas Mavericks ran away with the league's best record in the regular season, then were ambushed in the first round by the Golden State Warriors, one of the few times a top seed has gone down in the first round. Dirk Nowitzki won the MVP narrowly over his good friend Steve Nash, preventing the Suns' star from taking home his third straight trophy. The Spurs eventually went on to win the championship in a sweep over LeBron James and the Cavaliers. These are my rankings of which players should have won and been in contention for each of the major offensive awards that year. Actual rankings determined by voters in parentheses.

Most Valuable Player

1. Dirk Nowitzki - DAL - 24.6 pts, 8.9 reb, 3.4 ast (1)
Statistically, Dirk was actually down slightly from the year before, but the Mavericks were unquestionably up, losing only 15 games in the regular season and finishing 6 games ahead of Phoenix for the best record in the league, and Dirk was definitely one of the top 5 players in the entire league. No contest here.

2. Tim Duncan - SAS - 20.0 pts, 10.6 reb, 3.4 ast (4)
One season after averaging fewer than 20 points per game for the first time in his career, Duncan bounced back with his final 20-point season, and in the process earned his 4th championship with the Spurs. Even though he had dropped off a little from his prime, he was still the driving force behind the NBA champs.

3. Steve Nash - PHX - 18.6 pts, 3.5 reb, 11.6 ast (2)
Nash led the league in assists for the third straight year while setting a new career high in that category, and he also nearly matched his career high in scoring, which he set the previous year, all while guiding the Suns to the league's #2 record and another disappointing playoff loss to San Antonio.

4. LeBron James - CLE - 27.3 pts, 6.7 reb, 6.0 ast (5)
James' averages dropped in nearly every category, but the Cavaliers were able to obtain the second seed in the Eastern Conference, which they used to upset the Detroit Pistons to earn the franchise's first trip to the NBA Finals. Even at age 22, James was already one of the best players in the entire league.

5. Tracy McGrady - HOU - 24.6 pts, 5.3 reb, 6.5 ast (6)
The former league scoring leader got his name into the MVP discussion for the final time in a great career after the Rockets lost Yao Ming for a large portion of the regular season. McGrady was there to pick up the slack, and Houston earned the 5th seed in the West and nearly beat the Jazz in the first round.

6. Carlos Boozer - UTA - 20.9 pts, 11.7 reb, 3.0 ast (9)
Boozer set new career highs in scoring, rebounds, assists, and field goal percentage after missing most of the previous season, and led Utah to the 4th seed in the playoffs and a trip to the Western Conference Finals. It was his first healthy season in Utah, and it gave the Jazz a lot of hope for the future.

7. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 31.6 pts, 5.7 reb, 5.4 ast (3)
Kobe led the league in scoring for the second straight year, but the Lakers narrowly reached the playoffs, then lost 4-1 in the first round to the Phoenix Suns. It finally became apparent that Kobe couldn't do it alone, and the Lakers traded for Pau Gasol the next season, and Kobe won his first MVP.

8. Yao Ming - HOU - 25.0 pts, 9.4 reb, 2.0 blk (NR)
He may have missed 34 games due to injury, but when he was on the court, he was virtually unstoppable. He had his best season statistically, and Houston was a real threat in the West until he went down, and he's only had one healthy season since.

9. Chris Bosh - TOR - 22.6 pts, 10.7 reb, 2.5 ast (7)
Bosh improved upon the career highs he set the previous season in scoring and rebounding and the Raptors were able to win their division behind their young star. Bosh was incredibly steady for the remainder of his time in Toronto, but the Raptors were never as good again.

10. Carmelo Anthony - DEN - 28.9 pts, 6.0 reb, 3.8 ast (15)
Carmelo increased his scoring average yet again to set a career high that is still standing as he guided the Nuggets into the playoffs, where they lost to the eventual champions in the first round. Anthony finished behind only Kobe Bryant in scoring average, but still didn't garner many MVP votes.

Rookie of the Year

1. Brandon Roy - POR - 16.8 pts, 4.4 reb, 4.0 ast (1)
Despite missing 25 games due to injury, there was no other rookie in the league that was on the same playing field with Brandon Roy in 2007. He was a starter almost immediately and led all rookies in scoring.

2. Randy Foye - MIN - 10.1 pts, 2.7 reb, 2.8 ast (5)
Foye was named the Western Conference Rookie of the Month in December, and he continued to improve throughout the season, ending up as the only major rookie to play in every game in the regular season, although he was no match for Roy.

3. Rudy Gay - MEM - 10.8 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.3 ast (3)
Gay had a decent rookie season, which he immediately followed up with a season where he was squarely in the Most Improved Player discussion. Being allowed to play good minutes as a rookie definitely contributed to his quick ascension to stardom.

4. Rajon Rondo - BOS - 6.4 pts, 3.7 reb, 3.8 ast (12)
Rondo didn't get noticed by many people during his rookie year, but the Celtics sure knew what they had. In his second year he became the team's full-time starting point guard, and in his fifth season he became an All-Star.

5. Adam Morrison - CHA - 11.8 pts, 2.9 reb, 2.1 ast (4)
Morrison looked like a great prospect coming out of Gonzaga, which is why the Bobcats took him with the third overall pick in the draft, but he shot only 37.6% as a rookie, and that has turned out to be his career high so far in a very disappointing start to his career.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Manu Ginobili - SAS - 16.5 pts, 4.4 reb, 3.5 ast (2)
Ginobili's minutes were his lowest since his rookie season, but he set a new career high in scoring while coming off the bench for the majority of the season for the Spurs, who went on to win the NBA title, thanks in part to Manu's willingness to take on a new role.

2. Leandro Barbosa - PHX - 18.1 pts, 2.7 reb, 4.0 ast (1)
Barbosa recorded new career highs in nearly every category in his breakout season, with a 5 point per game increase coinciding with a 5 minute per game increase in playing time. He has not come close to matching his production from that season in the four years since.

3. Josh Childress - ATL - 13.0 pts, 6.2 reb, 2.3 ast (11)
Childress missed quite a bit of time with injuries, but when he was healthy he was Atlanta's best player off the bench, and the result was his best professional season. One year later, he decided that the Hawks weren't offering to pay him enough, and he left to play in Greece, which has not payed dividends yet.

4. Corey Maggette - LAC - 16.9 pts, 5.9 reb, 2.8 ast (7)
After missing much of the previous season with an injury, Maggette was brought off the bench for most of his comeback season, and the results weren't bad, although they weren't up to his usual standards. The following year he returned to the starting lineup and averaged 22.1 points per game for the Clippers.

5. David Lee - NYK - 10.7 pts, 10.4 reb, 1.8 ast (4)
Lee was the only bench player to average a double-double for the season, and even with time missed due to injury he was one of the best young forwards in the league in just his second season.

Most Improved Player

1. Amare Stoudemire - PHX - +11.7 pts, +4.3 reb, +0.3 ast (16)
A lot of voters didn't vote for Amare because he had previously been a superstar player, but the fact that he returned from two major knee surgeries to make the All-NBA First Team the next season has to earn him some recognition. If there were still a Comeback Player of the Year award, it would be his, but in its absence, this award will have to do.

2. Al Jefferson - MIN - +8.1 pts, +5.9 reb, +0.8 ast (6)
Jefferson was the main piece in the trade that sent Kevin Garnett to Boston, and he showed why in his first season leading a team, doubling his averages in each of the three major statistical categories, and his improvement was just beginning.

3. David Lee - NYK - +5.6 pts, +5.9 reb, +1.2 ast (10)
Lee had just as much a right to this award as he did to the Sixth Man award, showing increases across the board and shooting 60% for the season, all while coming off the bench for the Knicks. Just three years later he had nearly doubled his scoring average again after he became a starter.

4. Mikki Moore - NJN - +6.5 pts, +2.3 reb, +0.3 ast (12)
In his first season as a starter, Moore led the league in shooting percentage and nearly tripled his scoring average in his lone season in New Jersey. The next season he started for Sacramento with similar results, but has since started to show his age.

5. Monta Ellis - GSW - +9.7 pts, +1.1 reb, +2.5 ast (1)
Ellis may have won the award given by the league's voters, but his only significant improvement was in scoring, which is not difficult to do for the Warriors. His increase in production was impressive, but many other deserving players were overlooked in the process.

NBA Player of the Day - 11 Mar

Monta Ellis - GSW - 39 pts, 6 reb, 11 ast, 4 stl, 14-24 FG, 7-9 3P, 4-5 FT
While I didn't award Ellis the 2007 Most Improved Player award, I did give him today's Player of the Day award after he shot the lights out as the Warriors took down the heavily-favored Magic last night in a game that featured an NBA-record 36 3-point field goals, 7 of which came off the hands of Golden State's star.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

College Basketball Conference Predictions - ACC, Big 12, SEC

I thought it would be fun to predict the final standings of each of the major college basketball conferences starting from today's standings, so today you're going to get the first 3. I calculated this by calculating their probability of winning each of their remaining games, then adding the probabilities together. For example, if one team is given a 75% chance of winning a game, they would get .75 of a win added to their total and the opponent would get .25. After going through each game I rounded off to the nearest whole number. Each team's name if followed by its projected conference and overall records, as well as its current standing in the conference. Current standings can be seen here.

ACC

1. Duke (13-3) (28-3) (1)
2. Florida State (11-5) (21-9) (2)
3. Maryland (10-6) (21-10) (8)
4. North Carolina (10-6) (20-10) (4)
5. Virginia Tech (9-7) (19-10) (6)
6. Boston College (9-7) (19-11) (2)
7. Clemson (8-8) (19-11) (5)
8. Miami (7-9) (19-12) (9)
9. North Carolina State (6-10) (16-14) (10)
10. Georgia Tech (6-10) (14-16) (7)
11. Virginia (5-11) (14-16) (11)
12. Wake Forest (2-14) (9-22) (12)

The two things that seem most sure in the ACC are that Duke will end up at the top and Wake Forest will end up in last place. Florida State looks like they'll end up in 2nd despite being the fifth best team in the conference, thanks to their upset win over Duke. Maryland is ranked low today because they had to play at Duke already, but their only difficult road games the rest of the way are against Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Boston College has the most difficult road schedule remaining of anyone in the conference, visiting Florida State, Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech. Wake Forest is lucky to be facing NC State, Georgia Tech, and Virginia at home, because otherwise they probably would not win a conference game. The biggest threats to Duke are road games at North Carolina and Maryland.

Big 12

1. Kansas (14-2) (29-2) (1)
2. Texas (12-4) (24-7) (2)
3. Texas A&M (10-6) (23-7) (3)
4. Missouri (9-7) (23-8) (5)
5. Nebraska (8-8) (20-10) (6)
5. Oklahoma State (8-8) (20-10) (6)
7. Baylor (8-8) (18-11) (8)
8. Colorado (8-8) (19-12) (4)
9. Iowa State (7-9) (20-11) (9)
10. Kansas State (6-10) (18-13) (10)
11. Oklahoma (4-12) (12-18) (11)
12. Texas Tech (2-14) (10-21) (12)

Kansas appears to be a pretty clear favorite to win the Big 12, with only a few potential bumps in the road when they visit Missouri, Kansas State, and Colorado. Texas also appears to have a clear hold on second place after their defeat of Texas A&M, probably only losing at Kansas, Texas A&M, and maybe Colorado. Nebraska and Oklahoma State are tied today and look like they'll end up that way at the end of the season too. Colorado has benefited from playing Missouri at home and no other top Big 12 teams so far, but they have to play at Kansas, Baylor, and Missouri, and they have a visit from the undefeated Jayhawks coming up also. Kansas State has already lost a couple of games they shouldn't have, and it looks like they probably won't be able to recover. Texas Tech should beat Oklahoma at home late in the year, and they'll probably pick up one more upset somewhere else before the season mercifully ends for them.

SEC

1. Kentucky (11-5) (23-7) (6)
2. Alabama (11-5) (19-11) (2)
3. Vanderbilt (10-6) (22-8) (8)
4. Georgia (9-7) (21-9) (7)
5. Florida (9-7) (20-10) (3)
6. Tennessee (9-7) (19-12) (10)
7. Arkansas (8-8) (19-11) (9)
8. South Carolina (8-8) (17-12) (1)
9. Mississippi (7-9) (19-12) (12)
10. Mississippi State (6-10) (14-16) (4)
11. LSU (6-10) (14-17) (5)
12. Auburn (2-14) (9-21) (11)

Kentucky has already lost road games to two of the best teams in the conference, which is why they are currently #6, and they will probably lose a few more, but they are the best team in the conference and will pull themselves back into first before it's all over. Alabama's upset over Kentucky established them as one of the best teams in the conference, and they also have the benefit of two games against in-state rival Auburn, the clear-cut conference loser. Vanderbilt should not have lost at Tennessee, but most of their remaining tough games will be at home, so they should be moving up. Georgia has also beaten Kentucky once this year, and the only games that look like definite losses for them the rest of the way are at Kentucky and Alabama. South Carolina is the ultimate pretender, playing all of their tough games at home so far. That is going to change soon, and the Gamecocks will fall over and over now that the schedule isn't going to be favoring them so much.

NBA Player of the Day

Monta Ellis - GSW - 36 pts, 5 reb, 6 ast, 2 stl, 16-28 FG, 2-3 3P, 2-3 FT
Ellis threw in 36 points for the Golden State Warriors last night, including the game-winner with less than a second left, as the Warriors upset Indiana and kept alive my streak of correctly picked upsets at 18. Although it's not likely, I think Monta should be chosen as an All-Star reserve, especially now that he's having his best year.

Predictions - 20 Jan

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

76ers at Bobcats - 76ers by 1
Mavericks at Bulls - Bulls by 4
Clippers at Trail Blazers - Blazers by 6

College Basketball

Indiana at (17) Wisconsin - Wisconsin by 12
(25) Arizona at (20) Washington - Washington by 12
Virginia Tech at Maryland - Maryland by 9

Prediction Results - 19 Jan

NBA: 11/13 (.846) 317/441 overall (.719)
College Basketball: 9/11 (.818) 302/358 overall (.844)
Upsets: 4/4 (1.000) 77/121 overall (.636)