College Basketball Conference Predictions - ACC, Big 12, SEC

I thought it would be fun to predict the final standings of each of the major college basketball conferences starting from today's standings, so today you're going to get the first 3. I calculated this by calculating their probability of winning each of their remaining games, then adding the probabilities together. For example, if one team is given a 75% chance of winning a game, they would get .75 of a win added to their total and the opponent would get .25. After going through each game I rounded off to the nearest whole number. Each team's name if followed by its projected conference and overall records, as well as its current standing in the conference. Current standings can be seen here.

ACC

1. Duke (13-3) (28-3) (1)

2. Florida State (11-5) (21-9) (2)

3. Maryland (10-6) (21-10) (8)

4. North Carolina (10-6) (20-10) (4)

5. Virginia Tech (9-7) (19-10) (6)

6. Boston College (9-7) (19-11) (2)

7. Clemson (8-8) (19-11) (5)

8. Miami (7-9) (19-12) (9)

9. North Carolina State (6-10) (16-14) (10)

10. Georgia Tech (6-10) (14-16) (7)

11. Virginia (5-11) (14-16) (11)

12. Wake Forest (2-14) (9-22) (12)

The two things that seem most sure in the ACC are that Duke will end up at the top and Wake Forest will end up in last place. Florida State looks like they'll end up in 2nd despite being the fifth best team in the conference, thanks to their upset win over Duke. Maryland is ranked low today because they had to play at Duke already, but their only difficult road games the rest of the way are against Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Boston College has the most difficult road schedule remaining of anyone in the conference, visiting Florida State, Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech. Wake Forest is lucky to be facing NC State, Georgia Tech, and Virginia at home, because otherwise they probably would not win a conference game. The biggest threats to Duke are road games at North Carolina and Maryland.

Big 12

1. Kansas (14-2) (29-2) (1)

2. Texas (12-4) (24-7) (2)

3. Texas A&M (10-6) (23-7) (3)

4. Missouri (9-7) (23-8) (5)

5. Nebraska (8-8) (20-10) (6)

5. Oklahoma State (8-8) (20-10) (6)

7. Baylor (8-8) (18-11) (8)

8. Colorado (8-8) (19-12) (4)

9. Iowa State (7-9) (20-11) (9)

10. Kansas State (6-10) (18-13) (10)

11. Oklahoma (4-12) (12-18) (11)

12. Texas Tech (2-14) (10-21) (12)

Kansas appears to be a pretty clear favorite to win the Big 12, with only a few potential bumps in the road when they visit Missouri, Kansas State, and Colorado. Texas also appears to have a clear hold on second place after their defeat of Texas A&M, probably only losing at Kansas, Texas A&M, and maybe Colorado. Nebraska and Oklahoma State are tied today and look like they'll end up that way at the end of the season too. Colorado has benefited from playing Missouri at home and no other top Big 12 teams so far, but they have to play at Kansas, Baylor, and Missouri, and they have a visit from the undefeated Jayhawks coming up also. Kansas State has already lost a couple of games they shouldn't have, and it looks like they probably won't be able to recover. Texas Tech should beat Oklahoma at home late in the year, and they'll probably pick up one more upset somewhere else before the season mercifully ends for them.

SEC

1. Kentucky (11-5) (23-7) (6)

2. Alabama (11-5) (19-11) (2)

3. Vanderbilt (10-6) (22-8) (8)

4. Georgia (9-7) (21-9) (7)

5. Florida (9-7) (20-10) (3)

6. Tennessee (9-7) (19-12) (10)

7. Arkansas (8-8) (19-11) (9)

8. South Carolina (8-8) (17-12) (1)

9. Mississippi (7-9) (19-12) (12)

10. Mississippi State (6-10) (14-16) (4)

11. LSU (6-10) (14-17) (5)

12. Auburn (2-14) (9-21) (11)

Kentucky has already lost road games to two of the best teams in the conference, which is why they are currently #6, and they will probably lose a few more, but they are the best team in the conference and will pull themselves back into first before it's all over. Alabama's upset over Kentucky established them as one of the best teams in the conference, and they also have the benefit of two games against in-state rival Auburn, the clear-cut conference loser. Vanderbilt should not have lost at Tennessee, but most of their remaining tough games will be at home, so they should be moving up. Georgia has also beaten Kentucky once this year, and the only games that look like definite losses for them the rest of the way are at Kentucky and Alabama. South Carolina is the ultimate pretender, playing all of their tough games at home so far. That is going to change soon, and the Gamecocks will fall over and over now that the schedule isn't going to be favoring them so much.

NBA Player of the Day

Monta Ellis - GSW - 36 pts, 5 reb, 6 ast, 2 stl, 16-28 FG, 2-3 3P, 2-3 FT

Ellis threw in 36 points for the Golden State Warriors last night, including the game-winner with less than a second left, as the Warriors upset Indiana and kept alive my streak of correctly picked upsets at 18. Although it's not likely, I think Monta should be chosen as an All-Star reserve, especially now that he's having his best year.

Predictions - 20 Jan

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

76ers at Bobcats - 76ers by 1

Mavericks at Bulls - Bulls by 4

Clippers at Trail Blazers - Blazers by 6

College Basketball

Indiana at (17) Wisconsin - Wisconsin by 12

(25) Arizona at (20) Washington - Washington by 12

Virginia Tech at Maryland - Maryland by 9

Prediction Results - 19 Jan

NBA: 11/13 (.846) 317/441 overall (.719)

College Basketball: 9/11 (.818) 302/358 overall (.844)

Upsets: 4/4 (1.000) 77/121 overall (.636)