College Basketball Overrated and Underrated - 18 Jan

I've decided to move my overrated and underrated feature to Tuesdays now that the NFL regular season is over to make it match up better with the release of the AP poll on Mondays. All five of my overrated teams lost in the past week, and three of them exited the national rankings as a result. The other two remain nationally ranked, so they also remain on my overrated list. 3 of my underrated teams are also leaving the rankings this week. Saint Mary's made the top 25 in both polls finally, Arizona is ranked by the coaches, and Marquette has finally earned a few votes. All 3 remain among the top 8 underrated schools, but have been replaced among the top 5. Here are the newly updated rankings, with previous ranking in parentheses.

Overrated

1. Minnesota

2. Texas A&M

3. Notre Dame (3)

4. Villanova (4)

5. Connecticut

Minnesota has somehow rocketed back up the rankings despite losing 3 of its last 6 games, all thanks to one big win against Purdue. That won't be enough to keep them afloat after they lose at Michigan in their only game this week and people realize that the Purdue game was a fluke.

Texas A&M is ranked at #11 by the AP after they upset Missouri at home this week, but the Tigers are also somewhat overrated, and the win was predicted in advance by my formula. They should take a little bit of a hit when they lose to Texas tomorrow, especially if they lose by double-digits, which is quite likely.

Notre Dame is a good team, but they should have fallen much farther after losing to two unranked teams in a row last week. Their two big wins were over a slumping Georgetown team and an overrated UConn team, so neither one holds much sway with me. They should win both of their games this week, but both Cincinnati and Marquette have some upset potential.

Villanova lost at fellow overrated team UConn yesterday and should lose at Syracuse on Saturday. The combination of those two losses should be enough to give them a significant drop in the rankings, although the Big East tends to gain more forgiveness for losses than other conferences. (see Notre Dame above)

Connecticut may seem like an odd choice for this list after beating two ranked teams in the past two weeks, but it will all become more clear when the Huskies are upset by Marquette one week from today.

Underrated

1. Belmont (1)

2. Maryland (2)

3. Washington

4. UNLV

5. Vanderbilt

Do mine eyes deceive me? There must be a coach out there somewhere who has been reading my blog, because Belmont received one vote this week in the Coaches' Poll, although they are still voteless in the AP. They will remain in these rankings until one of two things happens: either they will lose a game, or the voters will recognize them and put them in the top 25. At this point neither one seems very likely, but one of them is bound to happen eventually, isn't it?

It seems that losing close games to top 10 teams doesn't earn you respect among poll voters. Just 6 days after losing by 7 points at #1 Duke, the Maryland Terrapins lost by 8 points at #7 Villanova. If they had won those games, you'd be seeing them ranked up around #15, but I guess good performance on the road doesn't mean much to the experts.

Washington lost a close game to Stanford this week on a last-second tip-in, which was enough to cause a drop in the rankings and a climb in the underrated rankings. After they take care of Arizona this week, they should earn a little of that back, but it's unlikely they will ever get to the top 10, which is where they really belong.

3 of UNLV's 4 losses have come to ranked teams, BYU, San Diego State, and Louisville, but because they don't play in one of the power conferences, the result is a drop from the top 25. A smart basketball fan would notice that they have beaten Virginia Tech, Kansas State, and Wisconsin this year and realize that they are the real deal.

Vanderbilt dropped again after they lost at in-state rival Tennessee this week, but they face off with West Coast powerhouse Saint Mary's this week in a game that will be very important for both teams, since neither one is ranked nearly as high as they should be. As of today, I would pick Vandy to win, but that could change by Saturday.

NBA Player of the Day

Blake Griffin - LAC - 47 pts, 14 reb, 3 ast, 19-24 FG, 9-11 FT

On a day where two players scored over 40 and two others had triple-doubles, Griffin's performance in LA's upset win over the Pacers is still the clear winner of this award. He missed only 5 field goals and 2 free throws in the game, for an incredible 80% true shooting percentage, and he also made a case for the coaches to pick him as an All-Star reserve.

Predictions - 18 Jan

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Hawks at Heat - Heat by 8

Bobcats at Bulls - Bulls by 13

College Basketball

TCU at (9) BYU - BYU by 26

(12) Kentucky at Alabama - Kentucky by 6

(18) Michigan State at (22) Illinois - Illinois by 8

(23) Georgetown at Seton Hall - Georgetown by 4

Prediction Results - 17 Jan

NBA: 10/13 (.769) 306/426 overall (.718)

College Basketball: 4/4 (1.000) 290/343 overall (.845)

Upsets: 3/3 (1.000) 72/116 overall (.621)

My upset streak is now up to 13 in a row correct, and it may extend to 14 today.