College Basketball Overrated and Underrated - 13 Jan

Three overrated teams left my overrated rankings this week, along with one from my underrated rankings. Memphis lost twice last week, to Tennessee and SMU, and were dropped from the national rankings and thereby the overrated rankings. Texas A&M steadied themselves by beating up on Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and are no longer overrated enough to make the top 5. UConn dropped a spot in the poll, which was just enough for them to come in 7th in my overrated list, so Huskies fans get a reprieve for at least this week. North Carolina likewise dropped to #7 in the underrated rankings after an unimpressive win over Virginia cast a little doubt over how good they really are. Here are the new rankings, with last week's rankings in parentheses.

Overrated

1. Georgia

2. Kansas State

3. Notre Dame (4)

4. Villanova (5)

5. UCF

Georgia made the AP top 25 this week for one reason, and that is their win over Kentucky last week. If you look closely at their schedule, that is their only quality win of the season, because they lost to the other 3 quality opponents they have faced. They should lose at Ole Miss on Saturday, and they may also lose to Tennessee on Tuesday, so their stay here may be short.

Kansas State has lost two straight Big 12 games to unranked teams, and chances are they will lose again at Missouri on Monday. As is the case with Georgia, they will probably be removed from the AP rankings on Monday and lose the overrated tag that goes with it.

Notre Dame earned this spot with their blowout loss at Marquette on Monday night, and there a very good chance that we will see a repeat performance on Sunday when they face Saint John's on the road. They probably won't drop completely out of the AP poll, but it may be enough to make them less overrated.

Villanova will face a very tough test this Saturday from a severely underrated Maryland team before traveling to Connecticut on Monday to face the Huskies in a game that should end their winning streak if it somehow survives the weekend.

It hurts me to put UCF on this list, especially since they were the ones that pulled off the first college basketball upset I predicted this year when they beat the Florida Gators, but I've said before that because of their weak conference schedule they have no room for error, and error showed up in the form of a 5-point loss at Houston. I'm now predicting that they will lose their second straight game when they face Southern Miss on the road this Saturday, and Conference USA will lose its only ranked team.

Underrated

1. Belmont (3)

2. Maryland (5)

3. Saint Mary's (1)

4. Marquette

5. Arizona (2)

Belmont continues to receive a total of 0 votes in either poll, just as it has been all season long. With only 3 losses to SEC teams on the road and an average victory margin of 27 in conference games, it's plain to see that the lack of respect is a case of small-conference bias.

Maryland is easy to ignore because they still lack a quality win. All 5 of their losses have come against good opponents, the worst being Boston College, currently #55, but every one of those losses was by single digits, including losses to Duke and Pitt, both top 5 mainstays.

Saint Mary's continues to gain support slowly in the polls, but has yet to break through and enter the top 25. Their best win is over Saint John's, and both of their losses are to teams in the top 11 (San Diego State and BYU) with just one loss between them.

I'm not sure how a team as talented as the Marquette Golden Eagles has flown under the radar all season long. They do not have a single vote in either poll this week, but that should change with their huge upset win over Notre Dame. An upset over Louisville, although less likely, would definitely get the voters' attention if the first upset wasn't enough.

Arizona has struggled somewhat in the early going of conference play, but they are still not getting the respect they have earned thus far. Up until last year, anyone with a 14-3 record in the Pac 10 would be a shoo-in for the top 25, but after a horrible year for the conference last year, the votes have been hard to come by.

NBA Player of the Day

Zach Randolph - MEM - 34 pts, 17 reb, 2 ast, 2 stl, 10-17 FG, 14-17 FT

Randolph really turned it up in the second half of Memphis' win over Detroit, scoring 24 points and grabbing 10 rebounds after halftime to pull the Grizzlies a little bit closer to .500. Randolph and Gay have each won this award multiple times, but the Grizz are still in 9th place in the West.

Predictions - 13 Jan

Upset picks are in italics.

NBA

Wizards at Timberwolves - Wolves by 4

Magic at Thunder - Thunder by 1

Heat at Nuggets - Heat by 2

College Basketball

(8) Purdue at (25) Minnesota - Purdue by 5

(18) Washington at Stanford - Washington by 11

Providence at West Virginia - West Virginia by 15

Lipscomb at Belmont - Belmont by 22

Virginia Tech at North Carolina - North Carolina by 9

San Francisco at Saint Mary's - Saint Mary's by 24

Prediction Results - 12 Jan

NBA: 8/12 (.667) 278/388 overall (.716)

College Basketball: 9/13 (.692) 256/305 overall (.839)

Upsets: 2/5 (.400) 58/101 overall (.574)

Note: I forgot to mark one of my upsets last night, Vanderbilt's win over Georgia, but the pick was made, just not italicized.