College Basketball Overrated and Underrated - 6 Jan

There was a lot of movement in my over- and underrated rankings this week, some good and some not so good. Minnesota finally lost convincingly enough for the voters to drop them, but Michigan State used that win and a win over Northwestern to prove that they deserve to be ranked. Missouri also impressed me this week, and I apologize for calling them overrated for the past few weeks. Washington has made it into the lower portion of the polls now, so I have removed them from the Underrated list, along with Southern Miss, who didn't do anything spectacular this week. So now we have 5 new teams among the most overrated and underrated in the country. Previous ranking is in parentheses.

Overrated

1. Memphis (1)

2. Texas A&M

3. Connecticut (3)

4. Notre Dame

5. Villanova

There are now three Big East teams on the overrated list, but that doesn't mean they aren't good teams. In fact, every one of them is among the top 10% of teams in the country, but they just shouldn't be ranked as high as they are.

Memphis has already punched their ticket off of this list with a 20-point loss to unranked Tennessee last night, but that won't show in the polls until next Monday, which is why they stayed at #1.

I considered Texas A&M to be somewhat underrated early in the season, but after close wins over McNeese State and Nicholls State, I'm not so sure about them. I expect them to beat Oklahoma and Oklahoma State this week, but they will have to do more than just win to prove they are not overrated.

Connecticut has also lost once already this week, at Notre Dame, which was understandable, but after they lose to Texas on Saturday, the voters will have no choice but to drop them, considering that they will have 3 losses in 4 games.

Notre Dame joined the national rankings this week with upset wins over Georgetown and Connecticut, each of which was ranked #9 at the time of its loss. The Fighting Irish did lose to Syracuse this week, another team that has spent some time on the overrated list recently, and I think that they will most likely lose to Marquette on Monday.

Villanova's next two games, against South Florida and Cincinnati, will both be closer than people expect, and they'll follow those up with a loss to Louisville, who is looking to pull their 3rd upset of the year.

Underrated

1. Saint Mary's (1)

2. Arizona (3)

3. Belmont (4)

4. North Carolina

5. Maryland

The ACC joins the underrated ranks with two teams making the jump this week. I'm sure that both of them are looking forward to playing Duke, where even a close game can give anyone instant credibility.

Saint Mary's continues to be overlooked by the nation, much like Gonzaga was before they made their first run to the Sweet 16 in the 90's. Other than their two conference games with Gonzaga, who always gets some respect, the Gaels' only other chance to make some real noise in when they go to Nashville to play Vanderbilt in 3 weeks.

Arizona did themselves no favors this week by losing at Oregon State, but they really are a quality team that just hasn't managed to pull off the big games. They face Washington, the only Pac 10 team that gets any respect, in two weeks, and although I don't think they'll win, they should keep it close enough to make people notice.

Belmont is in the same boat as Saint Mary's, lacking the in-conference strength of schedule to earn any national respect, but they've only let one non-ranked opponent get within 10 points of them all year, and they just may run the table in the Atlantic Sun Conference.

North Carolina got some attention last year after they became the first defending champ to miss the tournament altogether the following year, but they have definitely improved this year, keeping losses to Texas and Illinois close and beating Kentucky.

Maryland is much like the Tar Heels, playing in the ACC, which only has a ranked team because of Duke, and lacking the quality wins that make people notice them. They played close games back-to-back against Pitt and Illinois in November, but have faced noone better than Temple since. That changes Sunday when they visit #1 Duke, where a win, although highly unlikely, will catapult them into the rankings and off of this list.

NBA Player of the Day

Kevin Love - MIN - 35 pts, 15 reb, 5 ast, 11-16 FG, 3-5 3P, 10-11 FT

On a night where Kevin Martin scored 45 points and Rajon Rondo had one of the most eye-popping triple-doubles in history, Love takes home the Player of the Day award with his fifth 30-point, 15-rebound game of the season. What makes this one extra special is his shooting, which was off the charts. In fact, he scored 35 points out of a possible 48 on the shots he took, for an incredible 73%.

Predictions - 6 Jan

NBA

Thunder at Mavericks - Mavericks by 6

Nuggets at Kings - Nuggets by 7

College Football

Middle Tennessee State vs. Miami-Ohio - Miami-Ohio by 2

College Basketball

(7) Villanova at South Florida - Villanova by 5

Northwestern at (20) Illinois - Illinois by 11

Xavier at (25) Cincinnati - Cincinnati by 14

Oregon at Washington - Washington by 30

Saint Mary's at Loyola Marymount - Saint Mary's by 12

California at Arizona - Arizona by 19

Prediction Results - 5 Jan

NBA: 5/11 (.455) 246/339 overall (.726)

College Basketball: 9/10 (.900) 214/250 overall (.856)

Upsets: 2/5 (.400) 49/82 overall (.598)