The regular season has ended, and the playoffs are starting in just a few hours, giving team very little time to prepare for their first opponents, but keeping the fans interested and involved by reducing down time. The top four teams have been set in stone for months it seems, and those four teams are still the most likely to win the championship, but there are several other teams that could make runs deep into the playoffs. A couple of playoff teams have been weakened by injury or suspension, and it could cause those teams to exit the playoffs a little faster than expected. Here are my odds for teams advancing in the playoffs, and the odds of seeing various Finals matchups, along with my predictions for how the playoffs will shake out.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
1. Denver over LA Lakers - 61.3%
2. LA Clippers over Memphis - 52.1%
3. Atlanta over Boston - 50.8%
4. New York over Miami - 37.9%
The Lakers have been weakened by the loss of "World Peace," possibly the least accurate name ever chosen, and Kobe has had his worst shooting season of his career. The Lakers played better when he was out, so I just don't see them beating a Denver team that is getting healthy at the right time. The Clippers and Memphis switched spots on the last day of the season, but with the way Chris Paul turns it on in the playoffs, I don't see them going down in the first round. Atlanta is technically an upset, since they are the #5 seed, but since they have a better record than the Celtics, who won their division to earn the #4 seed, the Hawks have home court advantage in the first round, which gives them a slight advantage. I'm not picking New York to beat Miami, but of all the top teams, Miami seems to be the most likely to drop the ball in the first round, and who better to knock them out than their hated rivals up in New York?
Most Likely First Round Winners
1. San Antonio over Utah - 89.4%
2. Oklahoma City over Dallas - 79.5%
2. Chicago over Philadelphia - 79.5%
4. Indiana over Orlando - 71.5%
The Spurs just completed their third double-digit winning streak of the season, which is especially impressive considering that the season was shortened by 16 games. It's also worth noting that the first two streaks ended by choice, with the Spurs choosing to rest their stars each time a winning streak reached 11, but don't expect that to happen again. The Jazz already got their free victory from the Spurs this month. Orlando is the worst team in the playoffs, thanks to Dwight Howard's injury, but I'm not sure they were really that good with him either, because of all the internal problems he's caused with trade demands and trying to get rid of his coach. Look for the Pacers to win that series easily.
Most Likely to Make Conference Finals
1. San Antonio - 73.7%
2. Chicago - 59.5%
3. Oklahoma City - 57.4%
4. Miami - 42.5%
5. Indiana - 29.9%
6. Denver - 24.1%
7. New York - 20.7%
8. Boston - 16.1%
9. Atlanta - 15.9%
10. LA Clippers - 12.6%
11. LA Lakers - 10.5%
12. Memphis - 9.9%
13. Philadelphia - 8.5%
14. Dallas - 8.0%
15. Orlando - 6.8%
16. Utah - 3.9%
The top seeds are the most likely to make it to the conference finals, but Denver could surprise some people out West coming out of the #6 spot, while the East is full of teams that could potentially pull an upset, including the surprising star-free Pacers, the big-man-heavy Knicks, and the experienced Celtics. This is one of the first times in recent memory where the Eastern Conference is the more wide-open conference.
Most Likely the Make the NBA Finals
1. San Antonio - 54.0%
2. Chicago - 43.8%
3. Oklahoma City - 25.4%
4. Miami - 19.0%
5. Indiana - 10.2%
6. Boston - 7.9%
7. Atlanta - 7.5%
8. Denver - 7.1%
9. New York - 7.0%
10. LA Clippers - 5.2%
11. Memphis - 3.6%
12. Philadelphia - 3.5%
13. LA Lakers - 2.1%
14. Dallas - 1.5%
15. Orlando - 1.2%
16. Utah - 1.1%
Other than the top 4, the only team that has a strong chance of making the Finals is Indiana. The top 4 teams have all been ranked among my top 5 teams for over 2 months, and it's unlikely that you won't see some pairing of them in the Finals this year.
Most Likely Champions
1. San Antonio - 37.3%
2. Chicago - 24.0%
3. Oklahoma City - 14.4%
4. Miami - 6.9%
5. Indiana - 2.8%
5. Denver - 2.8%
7. Boston - 2.3%
8. Atlanta - 2.1%
9. LA Clippers - 2.0%
10. New York - 1.9%
11. Memphis - 1.3%
The other 5 teams have no chance at winning and are not even worth mentioning, except for the fact that one of them is West #3 seed Los Angeles and another is the defending champion Dallas Mavericks.
Finals Matchup Odds
Dallas vs. Miami rematch - 0.3%
Lakers vs. Celtics - 0.2%
Not gonna happen.
2 Former MVP's - 40.7% (James, Nowitzki, Bryant, Duncan, Garnett, Rose)
It's amazing that each of these players is still pretty relevant. The only former MVP to miss the playoffs this year was Steve Nash.
Former Scoring Leaders - 7.3% (Durant, James, Wade, Bryant, McGrady)
Did you even know McGrady was still in the league? Apparently he's averaging 5 points per game off the bench for Atlanta.
Carmelo past vs. Carmelo present - 0.5%
The most interesting thing here is that the Nuggets, a team with no stars, has a better chance of getting there than the Knicks, with their two high-priced superstars.
Former Rebounding Leaders - 0.0%
The only rebounding champ who will be in the playoffs is Garnett, because Howard is out with an injury, and Kevin Love and Ben Wallace play on crappy teams.
Former Assist Leaders - 1.1% (Kidd, Andre Miller, Rondo, Paul)
Wouldn't Rondo vs. Paul be a great point guard matchup in the Finals? Two great little guards who fill up the stat sheet facing off would be awesome.
Former Finals MVP's - 15.4% (Pierce, Nowitzki, Bryant, Duncan, Parker, Wade)
It's very interesting that each of these players is still with the team where they won the award, and none has even played for another NBA team. Is that a bad omen for LeBron?
Playoff Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
First Round
Bulls over 76ers in 5
Celtics over Hawks in 6
Pacers over Magic in 5
Heat over Knicks in 7
Spurs over Jazz in 5
Clippers over Grizzlies in 6
Nuggets over Lakers in 6
Thunder over Mavericks in 5
Second Round
Bulls over Celtics in 5
Heat over Pacers in 7
Spurs over Clippers in 5
Thunder over Nuggets in 5
Conference Finals
Bulls over Heat in 5
Spurs over Thunder in 5
NBA Finals
Spurs over Bulls in 7
Tim Duncan pulls into a tie with Kobe Bryant as the active player with the most rings and joins Kareem, Havlicek, Horry, and Parish as the only players to win championships at least 13 years apart.
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Monday, April 23, 2012
Top 100 NBA Players: #11
Hakeem Olajuwon
(Kalb: #16, Simmons: #10, BBR: #9)
Hakeem Olajuwon is undoubtedly one of the greatest centers of all time and easily the best modern defensive center the NBA has seen. He is the best player who was not born as a United States citizen, and he peaked at exactly the right time, which allowed him to win a couple of championships and cement his place as one of the all-time greats.
Hakeem grew up primarily playing soccer in his native Nigeria, but when he was introduced to basketball as a teenager, he knew he had found his calling in life. He was only offered a spot on one college team, at the University of Houston, and after a couple of years training with local pro and NBA MVP Moses Malone, Olajuwon led the Cougars to two consecutive national championship games before being drafted by the Houston Rockets as the #1 pick in the NBA Draft, two spots ahead of Michael Jordan.
The Rockets started seeing success pretty quickly, making it to the NBA Finals in Hakeem's second season, where they lost to the Boston Celtics, whose 1986 team is regarded as one of the greatest teams in history. It looked like the Rockets were going to be a force for years to come, but because of a series of injuries to Ralph Sampson and their inability to get any decent players to play with Olajuwon, Houston suffered through several disappointing seasons.
Everything finally came together in 1993-94, beginning with the retirement of Michael Jordan in the offseason. Olajuwon took advantage of the hole left at the top of the league and had one of the most impressive seasons in history, becoming the only player ever to win the regular season MVP, Finals MVP, and Defensive Player of the Year Award in the same season.
The next year, things didn't look quite as good, with David Robinson and the Spurs dominating the regular season and Olajuwon dealing with some health issues near the end of the year, but with a late-season trade that brought college teammate Clyde Drexler to town, the Rockets were able to become the lowest-seeded team in history to win the NBA Finals, and Olajuwon repeated as Finals MVP.
Olajuwon is well-known as a great shot-blocker, and he still holds the record for most shots blocked in a career, although they have only been recorded for half of the league's history. Not only was he great at blocking shots, he was always among the leaders in steals as well, and in 1989 he became the only player in history to record more than 200 blocks and 200 steals in the same season. In fact, there have only been 8 seasons in which a player reached 150-150, and four of those belong to Olajuwon. He is definitely one of the greatest defensive players of all time.
Olajuwon was also great on the offensive end of the court, averaging over 20 points per game for 13 consecutive seasons to start his career, and his moves in the low post have become legendary, especially his patented "Dream Shake," which involved numerous fakes and spins and allowed him to get a ton of easy shots near the hoop. He now hosts a camp each summer where he teaches footwork in the paint, and many NBA stars have trained with him, including Yao Ming, Kobe Bryant, and LeBron James.
What really made Olajuwon great is that he stepped up his game when it mattered most, especially against the toughest competition. During his two championship seasons, he outplayed David Robinson, Shaquille O'Neal, and Patrick Ewing in the playoffs, and also beat teams led by Karl Malone and Charles Barkley. When Robinson won the regular season MVP in 1995, Olajuwon made a point of completely dismantling him in the Western Conference Finals, and Robinson was never the same player again.
The thing that held him back from making the all-time top 10 was that his three-year peak was relatively short for a great player, and happened to coincide nicely with Jordan's first retirement, then abruptly ended when Jordan returned. He played in an era with many other great centers, and he was the best of any of them during his peak years, but he was only one of the top 5 players in the league for 5 seasons, which was a relatively short period, especially when compared to the players that make up my top 10.
Hakeem Olajuwon was only the best player in the NBA for one season, while LeBron has already done it 6 times, but Hakeem has a couple of advantages over James. One is that he has won a couple of NBA Championships as the best player on his team, while LeBron has lost a couple of NBA Finals as his team's best player. Olajuwon also made one other trip to the penultimate series, so he also holds the edge in Finals appearances. The other thing that puts Olajuwon ahead is that he had a very long career, and was among the NBA's best for the majority of it, so LeBron needs to keep up his current level of play for a little longer in order to pass the best foreign player ever.
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
Top 100 NBA Players: #12
LeBron James
(Simmons: #20, BBR: #19)
LeBron James is the third-youngest player in this entire list, yet he has somehow risen to #12 already, and the sky is the limit for him, whether you are a fan of his or not. Many try to say that LeBron is not that great, that he'll never be as great as Michael Jordan, but there are problems with that reasoning.
People say that Jordan was greater because he won 6 titles, and LeBron has yet to win one. The problem is that we are comparing 1990's Jordan with 2000's LeBron, when we should be comparing current LeBron with 1980's Jordan. At the end of last season, when these rankings were created, LeBron James was 26 years old. Here is a comparison of the career accomplishments and statistics of Jordan and LeBron at age 26:
Jordan - 6 playoffs, 2 conference finals, 0 NBA Finals, 1 MVP, 3 years as best player in the league
James - 6 playoffs, 3 conference finals, 2 NBA Finals, 2 MVP, 6 years as best player in the league
Jordan - 32.8 pts, 6.3 reb, 6.0 ast, 2.8 stl, 1.1 blk, .516 FG%, .282 3P%, .848 FT%
James - 27.7 pts, 7.1 reb, 7.0 ast, 1.7 stl, 0.8 blk, .479 FG%, .329 3P%, .744 FT%
When looking at them statistically, LeBron has more triple-double potential, but Jordan was still a little better overall. When looking at their accomplishments at age 26, LeBron is the clear-cut winner, matching or beating Jordan in every category. The fact is that back in the 1980's, people were saying the same things about Jordan that they now say about LeBron, that he's great but he'll never lead his team to a title, that he doesn't know how to involve his teammates enough, etc. At age 27, Michael Jordan won his first of six NBA Championships. If LeBron wants to eventually be remembered as equal to or greater than Jordan, and potentially as the greatest player of all time, the titles have to start coming soon.
LeBron is the only player in history to own career averages of 25 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists per game, and is also the holder of many "youngest" records, including youngest #1 pick, youngest Rookie of the Year, youngest to record a triple-double, any many others. He is also one of 4 players in history to lead his team in all 5 of the major statistical categories for a full season, along with Dave Cowens, Scottie Pippen, and Kevin Garnett.
He has also been the best player in the entire league for 6 of the 8 seasons he has played so far, the only exceptions being his rookie year, when he was just All-Star material, and 2008, when Kobe finally decided he needed an MVP award. In 2005, at the age of 20, LeBron was already the best player in the NBA, becoming only the third player to be the best within his first two seasons, and the other two happen to be Kareem and Wilt.
Baylor was one of the greatest talents ever at the small forward position, and LeBron is following in his footsteps. Injuries slowed down Baylor's career trajectory prematurely, while James has been able to maintain his high level of play now for 7 full seasons. James has already been the best player on 2 Finals teams, while Baylor achieved the feat 4 times in a full career. The biggest thing that separates James from Baylor is that he has been the league's best player 6 times already, while Baylor was never the very best player at any point in his career.
Monday, April 16, 2012
NBA Rankings - 16 Apr
There are only two weeks left in the season, and the playoff races are heating up. Half of the playoff spots are still up for grabs, although the Eastern Conference race could be wrapped up much faster than the one in the West if Milwaukee doesn't rebound from its current slump. The West still has 7 teams vying for 5 spots, so each game holds a lot of importance. Here are the updated rankings, with rising teams in green and falling teams in red, and gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (LW)
1. Oklahoma City (3-1) (44-16) -6.81 (2)
2. Chicago (3-0) (46-14) -6.23 (3)
3. San Antonio (2-2) (42-16) -5.91 (1)
4. Miami (2-2) (42-17) -5.28 (4)
5. LA Clippers (3-1) (37-23) -2.50 (7)
6. Boston (4-1) (36-25) -2.48 (6)
7. New York (2-2) (31-29) -2.45 (5)
8. Philadelphia (2-1) (31-28) -2.16 (10)
9. Memphis (3-2) (35-25) -1.99 (8)
10. LA Lakers (4-0) (39-22) -1.93 (12)
11. Indiana (4-0) (38-22) -1.92 (9)
12. Dallas (3-1) (34-27) -1.12 (15)
13. Denver (3-1) (33-27) -1.01 (19)
14. Atlanta (1-2) (35-25) -0.85 (13)
15. Phoenix (2-2) (31-29) -0.76 (16)
16. Houston (1-3) (32-28) -0.34 (11)
17. Utah (2-2) (31-30) -0.09 (18)
18. Portland (1-3) (28-33) 0.36 (20)
19. Milwaukee (1-3) (29-31) 0.39 (14)
20. Orlando (2-2) (35-25) 0.44 (17)
21. Minnesota (0-4) (25-36) 2.78 (21)
22. New Orleans (3-1) (18-42) 3.30 (24)
23. Toronto (2-2) (22-39) 3.60 (23)
24. Golden State (0-4) (22-37) 3.64 (22)
25. Detroit (1-3) (22-38) 6.18 (26)
26. Sacramento (1-3) (20-41) 6.20 (25)
27. New Jersey (1-2) (22-39) 6.43 (27)
28. Washington (2-2) (14-46) 7.42 (28)
29. Cleveland (2-3) (20-39) 8.43 (29)
30. Charlotte (0-5) (7-52) 14.54 (30)
Playoff Seeding Predictions
Each team is listed with its projected final record, and the number of games different that projection is from last week, with teams that have improved in the last week in green and falling teams in red. Most teams should finish within two games of the current projection.
Eastern Conference
1. Chicago (51-15) +1
2. Miami (47-19) -1
3. Indiana (42-24) +1
4. Boston (39-27) +1
5. Atlanta (39-27)
6. Orlando (38-28) -1
7. New York (35-31)
8. Philadelphia (35-31)
9. Milwaukee (32-34) -2
The race has pretty much been decided already in the East, with two pairs of teams that could still switch spots with each other, with no huge difference in the quality of team they will face in the first round. Milwaukee's collapse this week has pretty much knocked them out of the race, but since they are not mathematically eliminated, I'll keep them here for at least this week. New York owns the tiebreaker over Philadelphia, which gives them the chance to play Miami in the first round.
Western Conference
1. San Antonio (48-18) -1
2. Oklahoma City (48-18)
3. LA Lakers (42-24) +3
4. LA Clippers (40-26) +1
5. Memphis (39-27)
6. Dallas (37-29) +2
7. Denver (36-30) +1
8. Houston (35-31) -1
9. Phoenix (34-32) +1
10. Utah (34-32) +1
San Antonio owns the tiebreaker over Oklahoma City, and since both have the same number of losses today, the Spurs have the advantage. The Lakers are pulling away from the Clippers and Grizzlies and have nearly become the first team in the West to lock down its seeding. The bottom 5 teams are closer than ever, with only Dallas looking strong enough to say they are safely in, though they could end up in any of the bottom 3 spots.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Tuesday
Indiana at Philadelphia - 76ers by 3
Cleveland at Detroit - Pistons by 5
Memphis at Minnesota - Grizzlies by 2
Boston at New York - Knicks by 3
San Antonio at LA Lakers - Spurs by 1
Wednesday
Philadelphia at Cleveland - 76ers by 8
Milwaukee at Washington - Bucks by 4
Chicago at Charlotte - Bulls by 18
Detroit at Atlanta - Hawks by 10
Toronto at Miami - Heat by 12
New York at New Jersey - Knicks by 6
Orlando at Boston - Celtics by 6
New Orleans at Memphis - Grizzlies by 8
Houston at Dallas - Mavericks by 4
LA Clippers at Denver - Nuggets by 1
Utah at Portland - Trail Blazers by 2
Oklahoma City at Phoenix - Thunder by 3
San Antonio at Sacramento - Spurs by 9
LA Lakers at Golden State - Lakers by 3
Thursday
Milwaukee at Indiana - Pacers by 5
Minnesota at Detroit - Timberwolves by 1
Houston at New Orleans - Rockets by 1
Chicago at Miami - Heat by 2
LA Clippers at Phoenix - Suns by 1
Friday
Boston at Atlanta - Hawks by 1
Memphis at Charlotte - Grizzlies by 14
New York at Cleveland - Knicks by 8
Golden State at Dallas - Mavericks by 7
LA Lakers at San Antonio - Spurs by 7
Oklahoma City at Sacramento - Thunder by 10
Saturday
Denver at Phoenix - Suns by 3
Philadelphia at Indiana - Pacers by 2
Washington at Miami - Heat by 15
Dallas at Chicago - Bulls by 8
Golden State at Houston - Rockets by 7
Portland at Memphis - Grizzlies by 5
New Jersey at Milwaukee - Bucks by 9
Orlando at Utah - Jazz by 3
Sunday
New York at Atlanta - Hawks by 1
Oklahoma City at LA Lakers - Thunder by 2
Toronto at Detroit - Pistons by 1
Houston at Miami - Heat by 8
Sacramento at Charlotte - Kings by 6
Golden State at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 4
Cleveland at San Antonio - Spurs by 17
Orlando at Denver - Nuggets by 4
New Orleans at LA Clippers - Clippers by 9
Prediction Results
NBA: 32-18 (.640) 419-217 overall (.659)
Upsets: 3-5 (.375) 62-51 overall (.549)
TW. Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (LW)
1. Oklahoma City (3-1) (44-16) -6.81 (2)
2. Chicago (3-0) (46-14) -6.23 (3)
3. San Antonio (2-2) (42-16) -5.91 (1)
4. Miami (2-2) (42-17) -5.28 (4)
5. LA Clippers (3-1) (37-23) -2.50 (7)
6. Boston (4-1) (36-25) -2.48 (6)
7. New York (2-2) (31-29) -2.45 (5)
8. Philadelphia (2-1) (31-28) -2.16 (10)
9. Memphis (3-2) (35-25) -1.99 (8)
10. LA Lakers (4-0) (39-22) -1.93 (12)
11. Indiana (4-0) (38-22) -1.92 (9)
12. Dallas (3-1) (34-27) -1.12 (15)
13. Denver (3-1) (33-27) -1.01 (19)
14. Atlanta (1-2) (35-25) -0.85 (13)
15. Phoenix (2-2) (31-29) -0.76 (16)
16. Houston (1-3) (32-28) -0.34 (11)
17. Utah (2-2) (31-30) -0.09 (18)
18. Portland (1-3) (28-33) 0.36 (20)
19. Milwaukee (1-3) (29-31) 0.39 (14)
20. Orlando (2-2) (35-25) 0.44 (17)
21. Minnesota (0-4) (25-36) 2.78 (21)
22. New Orleans (3-1) (18-42) 3.30 (24)
23. Toronto (2-2) (22-39) 3.60 (23)
24. Golden State (0-4) (22-37) 3.64 (22)
25. Detroit (1-3) (22-38) 6.18 (26)
26. Sacramento (1-3) (20-41) 6.20 (25)
27. New Jersey (1-2) (22-39) 6.43 (27)
28. Washington (2-2) (14-46) 7.42 (28)
29. Cleveland (2-3) (20-39) 8.43 (29)
30. Charlotte (0-5) (7-52) 14.54 (30)
Playoff Seeding Predictions
Each team is listed with its projected final record, and the number of games different that projection is from last week, with teams that have improved in the last week in green and falling teams in red. Most teams should finish within two games of the current projection.
Eastern Conference
1. Chicago (51-15) +1
2. Miami (47-19) -1
3. Indiana (42-24) +1
4. Boston (39-27) +1
5. Atlanta (39-27)
6. Orlando (38-28) -1
7. New York (35-31)
8. Philadelphia (35-31)
9. Milwaukee (32-34) -2
The race has pretty much been decided already in the East, with two pairs of teams that could still switch spots with each other, with no huge difference in the quality of team they will face in the first round. Milwaukee's collapse this week has pretty much knocked them out of the race, but since they are not mathematically eliminated, I'll keep them here for at least this week. New York owns the tiebreaker over Philadelphia, which gives them the chance to play Miami in the first round.
Western Conference
1. San Antonio (48-18) -1
2. Oklahoma City (48-18)
3. LA Lakers (42-24) +3
4. LA Clippers (40-26) +1
5. Memphis (39-27)
6. Dallas (37-29) +2
7. Denver (36-30) +1
8. Houston (35-31) -1
9. Phoenix (34-32) +1
10. Utah (34-32) +1
San Antonio owns the tiebreaker over Oklahoma City, and since both have the same number of losses today, the Spurs have the advantage. The Lakers are pulling away from the Clippers and Grizzlies and have nearly become the first team in the West to lock down its seeding. The bottom 5 teams are closer than ever, with only Dallas looking strong enough to say they are safely in, though they could end up in any of the bottom 3 spots.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Tuesday
Indiana at Philadelphia - 76ers by 3
Cleveland at Detroit - Pistons by 5
Memphis at Minnesota - Grizzlies by 2
Boston at New York - Knicks by 3
San Antonio at LA Lakers - Spurs by 1
Wednesday
Philadelphia at Cleveland - 76ers by 8
Milwaukee at Washington - Bucks by 4
Chicago at Charlotte - Bulls by 18
Detroit at Atlanta - Hawks by 10
Toronto at Miami - Heat by 12
New York at New Jersey - Knicks by 6
Orlando at Boston - Celtics by 6
New Orleans at Memphis - Grizzlies by 8
Houston at Dallas - Mavericks by 4
LA Clippers at Denver - Nuggets by 1
Utah at Portland - Trail Blazers by 2
Oklahoma City at Phoenix - Thunder by 3
San Antonio at Sacramento - Spurs by 9
LA Lakers at Golden State - Lakers by 3
Thursday
Milwaukee at Indiana - Pacers by 5
Minnesota at Detroit - Timberwolves by 1
Houston at New Orleans - Rockets by 1
Chicago at Miami - Heat by 2
LA Clippers at Phoenix - Suns by 1
Friday
Boston at Atlanta - Hawks by 1
Memphis at Charlotte - Grizzlies by 14
New York at Cleveland - Knicks by 8
Golden State at Dallas - Mavericks by 7
LA Lakers at San Antonio - Spurs by 7
Oklahoma City at Sacramento - Thunder by 10
Saturday
Denver at Phoenix - Suns by 3
Philadelphia at Indiana - Pacers by 2
Washington at Miami - Heat by 15
Dallas at Chicago - Bulls by 8
Golden State at Houston - Rockets by 7
Portland at Memphis - Grizzlies by 5
New Jersey at Milwaukee - Bucks by 9
Orlando at Utah - Jazz by 3
Sunday
New York at Atlanta - Hawks by 1
Oklahoma City at LA Lakers - Thunder by 2
Toronto at Detroit - Pistons by 1
Houston at Miami - Heat by 8
Sacramento at Charlotte - Kings by 6
Golden State at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 4
Cleveland at San Antonio - Spurs by 17
Orlando at Denver - Nuggets by 4
New Orleans at LA Clippers - Clippers by 9
Prediction Results
NBA: 32-18 (.640) 419-217 overall (.659)
Upsets: 3-5 (.375) 62-51 overall (.549)
Saturday, April 14, 2012
NBA MVP Rankings - 14 Apr
There are only two weeks left in the NBA season, and the MVP race is as close now as it has been all season, so the next two weeks will be extremely important in deciding which player most deserves the award. It's probably a two-man race at this point, but there are several other players who should at least be mentioned for their play this season. Players who have moved up since my last rankings are in green, and falling players are in red.
Most Valuable Player
1. LeBron James - MIA - 26.8 pts, 7.9 reb, 6.4 ast, 1.9 stl, .530 FG%, .363 3P%, .763 FT%
James has been picking up his game this month, but the Heat have not been following suit. Miami has now lost 6 of their last 12 and appear to be locked into the #2 seed in the East yet again, which means that they will have to beat the Bulls in Chicago in order to advance to the Finals again. LeBron's 41 points against Philadelphia were a season high and led Miami to a very important victory over a potential first-round foe.
2. Kevin Durant - OKC - 27.6 pts, 7.9 reb, 3.5 ast, 1.2 blk, 1.4 stl, .500 FG%, .377 3P%, .856 FT%
Just when LeBron and Miami started to look beatable, Oklahoma City also went into a lull, losing 4 of their past 7 games and actually losing their lead in the West for a day. The Thunder, unlike the Heat, rebounded and regained their lead in the conference, and Durant could end up as the MVP favorite if they win the West, and especially if they are able to overtake Chicago for the league's best record.
3. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 24.1 pts, 4.6 reb, 5.4 ast, 1.7 stl, .466 FG%, .328 3P%, .819 FT%
Westbrook does not have much of a chance of being named MVP, especially since most people recognize that Durant is the Thunder's best player, but the great season he's had may end up being the thing that prevents his teammate from winning it, because he may siphon off just enough votes to throw the voting in LeBron's favor.
4. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 28.1 pts, 5.4 reb, 4.6 ast, 1.2 stl, .430 FG%, .845 FT%
Kobe's candidacy took a hit with him missing four games with a shin injury, especially since the Lakers seem to be playing better in his absence. They have won 3 of their four games, with the only loss coming against a hot Suns team that it fighting for its life right now, and impressive wins over Denver and San Antonio without Bryant in the lineup.
5. Blake Griffin - LAC - 20.6 pts, 10.9 reb, 3.1 ast, .543 FG%, .524 FT%
Griffin hasn't been at his most effective lately scoring points, but he's been doing the other things well, missing fewer shots (except at the free throw line, where he's looking like Shaq), grabbing more rebounds, and turning the ball over less. The Clippers have also moved into the #4 slot in the West, and with the tiebreaker over Memphis in hand, they will probably have home court advantage in the first round.
6. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 22.5 pts, 4.9 reb, 4.7 ast, 1.3 blk, 1.7 stl, .497 FG%, .788 FT%
Wade has not been at full strength lately, and trying to play through the pain seems to be hurting his team. In the three games he has sat out this month, Miami is 3-0, with an average margin of victory above 17, but they are only 1-4 in the five games he has played, with all four losses coming against teams that will be in the playoffs, so if Miami wants to prove that it's better than the rest of the league, it needs to beat the playoff teams more than 20% of the time.
7. Pau Gasol - LAL - 17.3 pts, 10.5 reb, 3.4 ast, 1.4 blk, .506 FG%, .770 FT%
Pau is stepping up his game in April, and has played even better with Kobe out of the lineup, taking his season average from 17 before this month to 18.5 in the first four games of the month to 22.5 in four games without Bryant, and the Lakers have strengthened their hold on the #3 spot in part due to the strong play of the Spaniard.
8. Kevin Love - MIN - 26.0 pts, 13.3 reb, 2.0 ast, .448 FG%, .372 3P%, .824 FT%
Minnesota's season is pretty much over, with the team nearly eliminated from playoff contention already, and Love's season may be done as well due to a concussion he suffered against Denver on Wednesday. Even though the Timberwolves will not make the playoffs, Love has had a great season, joining only Shaq and Hakeem in the past 25 years as players who have averaged at least 26 points and 13 rebounds for a full season.
9. Chris Paul - LAC - 19.3 pts, 3.5 reb, 8.9 ast, 2.5 stl, .479 FG%, .368 3P%, .856 FT%
The biggest difference in the LA Clippers this year is Chris Paul, who came to the team right before the season began and led them to a winning season, a rarity for one of the worst franchises in history. Paul showed what makes him so great last Saturday against Sacramento, when he scored 19 points, handed out 15 assists, and came up with 7 steals while making all 6 of his free throws in the victory over the Kings.
10. Andrew Bynum - LAL - 18.6 pts, 12.1 reb, 1.4 ast, 2.0 blk, .564 FG%, .680 FT%
Bynum looked like he was headed out of the MVP rankings after spraining his ankle and sitting out a game and a half, but he has come back strong, grabbing 30 rebounds against San Antonio on Wednesday, the most any player has earned in any game this season, and the Lakers were able to cool off the surging Spurs. The following game, against a Nuggets team that is right on the edge of missing the playoffs, Bynum stepped up with 30 points and the Lakers won their third in a row.
Dropping Out
Dwight Howard - ORL
Honorable Mention
Josh Smith - ATL
Carlos Boozer - CHI
Dwight Howard - ORL
Tony Parker - SAS
James Harden - OKC
Chris Bosh - MIA
Paul Pierce - BOS
Most Valuable Player
1. LeBron James - MIA - 26.8 pts, 7.9 reb, 6.4 ast, 1.9 stl, .530 FG%, .363 3P%, .763 FT%
James has been picking up his game this month, but the Heat have not been following suit. Miami has now lost 6 of their last 12 and appear to be locked into the #2 seed in the East yet again, which means that they will have to beat the Bulls in Chicago in order to advance to the Finals again. LeBron's 41 points against Philadelphia were a season high and led Miami to a very important victory over a potential first-round foe.
2. Kevin Durant - OKC - 27.6 pts, 7.9 reb, 3.5 ast, 1.2 blk, 1.4 stl, .500 FG%, .377 3P%, .856 FT%
Just when LeBron and Miami started to look beatable, Oklahoma City also went into a lull, losing 4 of their past 7 games and actually losing their lead in the West for a day. The Thunder, unlike the Heat, rebounded and regained their lead in the conference, and Durant could end up as the MVP favorite if they win the West, and especially if they are able to overtake Chicago for the league's best record.
3. Russell Westbrook - OKC - 24.1 pts, 4.6 reb, 5.4 ast, 1.7 stl, .466 FG%, .328 3P%, .819 FT%
Westbrook does not have much of a chance of being named MVP, especially since most people recognize that Durant is the Thunder's best player, but the great season he's had may end up being the thing that prevents his teammate from winning it, because he may siphon off just enough votes to throw the voting in LeBron's favor.
4. Kobe Bryant - LAL - 28.1 pts, 5.4 reb, 4.6 ast, 1.2 stl, .430 FG%, .845 FT%
Kobe's candidacy took a hit with him missing four games with a shin injury, especially since the Lakers seem to be playing better in his absence. They have won 3 of their four games, with the only loss coming against a hot Suns team that it fighting for its life right now, and impressive wins over Denver and San Antonio without Bryant in the lineup.
5. Blake Griffin - LAC - 20.6 pts, 10.9 reb, 3.1 ast, .543 FG%, .524 FT%
Griffin hasn't been at his most effective lately scoring points, but he's been doing the other things well, missing fewer shots (except at the free throw line, where he's looking like Shaq), grabbing more rebounds, and turning the ball over less. The Clippers have also moved into the #4 slot in the West, and with the tiebreaker over Memphis in hand, they will probably have home court advantage in the first round.
6. Dwyane Wade - MIA - 22.5 pts, 4.9 reb, 4.7 ast, 1.3 blk, 1.7 stl, .497 FG%, .788 FT%
Wade has not been at full strength lately, and trying to play through the pain seems to be hurting his team. In the three games he has sat out this month, Miami is 3-0, with an average margin of victory above 17, but they are only 1-4 in the five games he has played, with all four losses coming against teams that will be in the playoffs, so if Miami wants to prove that it's better than the rest of the league, it needs to beat the playoff teams more than 20% of the time.
7. Pau Gasol - LAL - 17.3 pts, 10.5 reb, 3.4 ast, 1.4 blk, .506 FG%, .770 FT%
Pau is stepping up his game in April, and has played even better with Kobe out of the lineup, taking his season average from 17 before this month to 18.5 in the first four games of the month to 22.5 in four games without Bryant, and the Lakers have strengthened their hold on the #3 spot in part due to the strong play of the Spaniard.
8. Kevin Love - MIN - 26.0 pts, 13.3 reb, 2.0 ast, .448 FG%, .372 3P%, .824 FT%
Minnesota's season is pretty much over, with the team nearly eliminated from playoff contention already, and Love's season may be done as well due to a concussion he suffered against Denver on Wednesday. Even though the Timberwolves will not make the playoffs, Love has had a great season, joining only Shaq and Hakeem in the past 25 years as players who have averaged at least 26 points and 13 rebounds for a full season.
9. Chris Paul - LAC - 19.3 pts, 3.5 reb, 8.9 ast, 2.5 stl, .479 FG%, .368 3P%, .856 FT%
The biggest difference in the LA Clippers this year is Chris Paul, who came to the team right before the season began and led them to a winning season, a rarity for one of the worst franchises in history. Paul showed what makes him so great last Saturday against Sacramento, when he scored 19 points, handed out 15 assists, and came up with 7 steals while making all 6 of his free throws in the victory over the Kings.
10. Andrew Bynum - LAL - 18.6 pts, 12.1 reb, 1.4 ast, 2.0 blk, .564 FG%, .680 FT%
Bynum looked like he was headed out of the MVP rankings after spraining his ankle and sitting out a game and a half, but he has come back strong, grabbing 30 rebounds against San Antonio on Wednesday, the most any player has earned in any game this season, and the Lakers were able to cool off the surging Spurs. The following game, against a Nuggets team that is right on the edge of missing the playoffs, Bynum stepped up with 30 points and the Lakers won their third in a row.
Dropping Out
Dwight Howard - ORL
Honorable Mention
Josh Smith - ATL
Carlos Boozer - CHI
Dwight Howard - ORL
Tony Parker - SAS
James Harden - OKC
Chris Bosh - MIA
Paul Pierce - BOS
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Top 100 NBA Players: #13
Elgin Baylor
(Kalb: #13, Simmons: #14, BBR: #20)
If you don't know who Elgin Baylor is, you're not alone. He is easily the least recognizable or remembered player among the top 20, and a big part of that is the era in which he played. Games were not televised, so the only chance fans got to see him was live at the game. Baylor is also one of only three players remaining on this list that never won a championship, but it isn't for lack of trying.
Elgin played 12 full seasons in the NBA, with 8 of those seasons ending in the NBA Finals, 7 against the Boston Celtics. Baylor was the best player on 4 of those teams, #2 on two others, and still the third best player on the team in his 12th season in the NBA. The players who ranked ahead of him on those teams were Jerry West and Wilt Chamberlain, so it's not like he was taking a back seat to a flash in the pan. There was one other season in which the Lakers lost to Boston in the Finals with Baylor sitting on the bench with a knee injury.
Baylor was not only a good player on a good team for all those years, he was one of the top 10 players in the league for 10 of his 12 full seasons. As a rookie, he was already the second-best player in the NBA, behind only Bob Pettit, and he only got better from there. Even though he was only 6-5, he averaged 24.9 points, 15.0 rebounds, and 4.1 assists that season, and he was known as the first player to play above the rim, showing hang time that had never been seen before.
His fourth season was 1961-62, the season of incomprehensible stats, and Baylor's numbers that season were yet another example. He had been called to active military duty during the season, so he was only able to play on weekends, but he still managed to participate in 48 games and average 38.3 points, 18.6 rebounds, and 4.6 assists, all during his weekend breaks from the military.
Baylor averaged over 24 points and 10 rebounds for 11 seasons, making him the greatest scorer/rebounder under 6-6 in league history, narrowly edging out Charles Barkley, another player who was never able to win a title. Baylor, however, may have allowed the Lakers to win a title. In 1971-72, he was returning from a major knee injury that had cost him almost a full season, and after nine games he felt that he was holding back a team that could be historically good, so he retired, and the very next game was the beginning of Los Angeles' record 33-game winning streak, and the Lakers also went on to win the title that season. There are not many players who would step aside in order to allow their team to reach their full potential, let alone one as great as Baylor, so that gesture was huge.
While Baylor did not win the championships that Russell did, mostly because of Russell, he did make it to the Finals 8 times, not far behind Russell's 12, and their careers covered almost the exactly same timeframe. Russell was a slightly better rebounder, but he was also at least 6 inches taller, so that's to be expected, but Baylor's worst scoring season was still 6 points per game better than Russell's best. What really puts Baylor ahead here is that he did more with less, since he took the Lakers to all those Finals with only one other star for the majority of his career, while Russell always had at least two, whether it was Cousy, Jones, or Havlicek helping him out.
Monday, April 9, 2012
NBA Rankings - 9 Apr
We're coming down the homestretch, and the three teams that have been sitting at the top for the entire season all seem to be shrinking away from the mantle of best team, so a team that has been there before many times over the past decade swooped in and took over the top spot for the first time this season, thanks to an 11-game winning streak, their second of the season. Here are this week's rankings, with rising teams in green, falling teams in red, and gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (LW)
1. San Antonio (4-0) (40-14) -7.77 (4)
2. Oklahoma City (1-2) (41-15) -7.64 (1)
3. Chicago (1-1) (43-14) -7.30 (2)
4. Miami (3-1) (40-15) -6.89 (3)
5. New York (2-1) (29-27) -4.21 (6)
6. Boston (2-2) (32-24) -3.27 (10)
7. LA Clippers (2-1) (34-22) -3.13 (9)
8. Memphis (3-1) (32-23) -3.05 (11)
9. Indiana (3-1) (34-22) -2.93 (7)
10. Philadelphia (0-4) (29-27) -2.92 (5)
11. Houston (2-0) (31-25) -2.63 (15)
12. LA Lakers (2-2) (35-22) -2.30 (8)
13. Atlanta (3-0) (34-23) -2.19 (14)
14. Milwaukee (3-0) (28-28) -2.07 (13)
15. Dallas (1-2) (31-26) -1.91 (18)
16. Phoenix (3-1) (29-27) -1.65 (19)
17. Orlando (1-2) (33-23) -1.34 (12)
18. Utah (1-2) (29-28) -1.22 (17)
19. Denver (1-2) (30-26) -1.00 (16)
20. Portland (2-1) (27-30) -0.94 (20)
21. Minnesota (0-2) (25-32) 0.83 (21)
22. Golden State (2-2) (22-33) 1.53 (22)
23. Toronto (2-2) (20-37) 2.94 (23)
24. New Orleans (2-1) (15-41) 3.18 (24)
25. Sacramento (0-4) (19-38) 3.85 (26)
26. Detroit (2-2) (21-35) 4.11 (25)
27. New Jersey (2-2) (21-37) 5.22 (28)
28. Washington (0-3) (12-44) 5.70 (27)
29. Cleveland (1-3) (18-36) 7.24 (29)
30. Charlotte (0-4) (7-47) 11.87 (30)
Playoff Seeding Predictions
Each team is listed with its predicted final record, along with the change in that prediction since Friday, when I posted my original predictions.
Eastern Conference
1. Chicago (50-16)
2. Miami (48-18) -1
3. Indiana (41-25) +1
5. Atlanta (39-27)
6. Orlando (39-27) +1
4. Boston (38-28) +2
7. New York (35-31)
8. Philadelphia (35-31) -1
9. Milwaukee (34-32) +1
Boston made a huge move this week, losing to the top team in each conference, then following that up with blowout victories over Indiana and Philadelphia, who had both been predicted to be among the top 4 seeds entering the playoffs. This put Boston into the #4 spot, where they will earn home court in the first round, and it also made them the only team in the league that appears to be locked into its seeding at this point.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, has lost 4 in a row and is in danger of not even making the playoffs just three days after I put them in as the probable Atlantic Division champion. Among their four losses was a blowout at home against Toronto, a team that has had nothing to play for since All-Star weekend, and the 76ers, who looked so strong early in the season, may need to win their next three in a row just to avoid missing the playoffs altogether.
Western Conference
1. San Antonio (49-17) +1
2. Oklahoma City (48-18)
3. LA Lakers (39-27) -2
4. LA Clippers (39-27)
5. Memphis (39-27) +1
6. Houston (36-30) +1
7. Dallas (35-31) -1
8. Denver (35-31)
9. Phoenix (33-33)
10. Utah (33-33)
The biggest change here is that the Lakers, Clippers, and Grizzlies are now in a dead heat for the final two top seeds, with the Lakers getting the advantage due to their 4-2 record against the other 2 this season. Tonight's Clippers-Grizzlies game will be very important, but probably only in determining which is at #4 at the end of the season.
Houston beat both the Bulls and the Lakers this week, and although they are probably about as high as they will get in the standings now, their chances of making the playoffs are looking pretty secure now. It's the defending champs that now have to worry about missing out completely, with the Suns and Jazz both sitting patiently waiting to see which team is ready to fall.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Tuesday
Charlotte at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 8
Boston at Miami - Heat by 7
Orlando at Washington - Magic by 4
Philadelphia at New Jersey - 76ers by 5
Sacramento at Dallas - Mavericks by 9
New York at Chicago - Bulls by 6
Wednesday
Indiana at Cleveland - Pacers by 7
Philadelphia at Toronto - 76ers by 3
Atlanta at Boston - Celtics by 4
Phoenix at Memphis - Grizzlies by 4
Sacramento at New Orleans - Hornets by 4
Utah at Houston - Rockets by 4
New York at Milwaukee - Bucks by 1
LA Clippers at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 7
LA Lakers at San Antonio - Spurs by 8
Minnesota at Denver - Nuggets by 5
Golden State at Portland - Trail Blazers by 5
Thursday
Detroit at Charlotte - Pistons by 5
Miami at Chicago - Bulls by 3
LA Clippers at Minnesota - Clippers by 1
Memphis at San Antonio - Spurs by 8
Dallas at Golden State - Mavericks by 1
Friday
Cleveland at Indiana - Pacers by 13
Atlanta at Orlando - Magic by 2
New Jersey at Philadelphia - 76ers by 11
Boston at Toronto - Celtics by 3
Charlotte at Miami - Heat by 22
Washington at New York - Knicks by 13
Phoenix at Houston - Rockets by 4
Utah at New Orleans - Jazz by 2
Milwaukee at Detroit - Bucks by 3
Sacramento at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 14
Denver at LA Lakers - Lakers by 4
Dallas at Portland - Trail Blazers by 2
Saturday
Golden State at LA Clippers - Clippers by 8
Cleveland at Washington - Wizards by 4
Boston at New Jersey - Celtics by 6
Oklahoma City at Minnesota - Thunder by 6
Utah at Memphis - Grizzlies by 5
Indiana at Milwaukee - Bucks by 2
Phoenix at San Antonio - Spurs by 9
Sunday
Miami at New York - Knicks by 1
Dallas at LA Lakers - Lakers by 3
Toronto at Atlanta - Hawks by 8
Orlando at Cleveland - Magic by 6
Chicago at Detroit - Bulls by 9
Portland at Sacramento - Trail Blazers by 2
Boston at Charlotte - Celtics by 12
Memphis at New Orleans - Grizzlies by 3
Houston at Denver - Nuggets by 1
Prediction Results
NBA: 35-16 (.686) 387-199 overall (.660)
Upsets: 4-1 (.800) 59-46 overall (.562)
Friday, April 6, 2012
NBA Playoff Seeding Predictions - 6 Apr
There are only a few weeks left in the regular season, so it's probably a little late to just start thinking about the playoffs, but since only 3 teams have clinched their playoff spots so far, there are still 13 spots up for grabs, although only 16 teams are really in contention for those spots. Here are my predictions for where each team will end up in the final standings, and keep in mind that any team could end up three games higher or lower when the regular season ends.
Eastern Conference
1. Chicago (50-16)
2. Miami (49-17)
3. Indiana (40-26)
5. Atlanta (39-27)
6. Orlando (38-28)
4. Philadelphia (36-30)
7. Boston (36-30)
8. New York (35-31)
9. Milwaukee (33-33)
Chicago and Miami are going to be the top 2 seeds, and it could go either way, but the Bulls are currently the favorites for the top seed, and probably the overall #1 seed as well. Whichever team of the Pacers, Hawks, and Magic ends up with the best record will get the #3 seed and home court in the first round, while the others will start the playoffs on the road. This is because the division winners are all guaranteed home court in the first round, so whichever team finishes first in the Atlantic Division will be awarded the #4 seed, and it could go any of three ways, with the slight edge going to the 76ers, although the Celtics are looking good lately. Milwaukee is currently on the outside looking in, but it is possible that they could catch one of the Atlantic Division teams and steal the final playoff spot, but they'll need some help.
Western Conference
1. San Antonio (48-18)
2. Oklahoma City (48-18)
3. LA Lakers (41-25)
4. LA Clippers (39-27)
5. Memphis (38-28)
6. Dallas (36-30)
7. Houston (35-31)
8. Denver (35-31)
9. Phoenix (33-33)
10. Utah (33-33)
San Antonio and Oklahoma City are in a dead heat for the top seed in the West, as they are currently tied in the loss column and look like they may end up that way. The Spurs own the tiebreaker with a 2-1 win in the season series, so they are currently on top. The Lakers will probably end up at #3, but the Clippers and Grizzlies both have them in their sights. Dallas is the only other team that could get into the top 4 for home court in the first round, but more likely they will end up in the lower half. There are five teams in contention for those final 3 spots, and the edge goes to those that are currently ahead, especially since Phoenix has the toughest remaining schedule in the league. Every night is going to be important going forward for the final 5, because it could swing toward any of them.
Eastern Conference
1. Chicago (50-16)
2. Miami (49-17)
3. Indiana (40-26)
5. Atlanta (39-27)
6. Orlando (38-28)
4. Philadelphia (36-30)
7. Boston (36-30)
8. New York (35-31)
9. Milwaukee (33-33)
Chicago and Miami are going to be the top 2 seeds, and it could go either way, but the Bulls are currently the favorites for the top seed, and probably the overall #1 seed as well. Whichever team of the Pacers, Hawks, and Magic ends up with the best record will get the #3 seed and home court in the first round, while the others will start the playoffs on the road. This is because the division winners are all guaranteed home court in the first round, so whichever team finishes first in the Atlantic Division will be awarded the #4 seed, and it could go any of three ways, with the slight edge going to the 76ers, although the Celtics are looking good lately. Milwaukee is currently on the outside looking in, but it is possible that they could catch one of the Atlantic Division teams and steal the final playoff spot, but they'll need some help.
Western Conference
1. San Antonio (48-18)
2. Oklahoma City (48-18)
3. LA Lakers (41-25)
4. LA Clippers (39-27)
5. Memphis (38-28)
6. Dallas (36-30)
7. Houston (35-31)
8. Denver (35-31)
9. Phoenix (33-33)
10. Utah (33-33)
San Antonio and Oklahoma City are in a dead heat for the top seed in the West, as they are currently tied in the loss column and look like they may end up that way. The Spurs own the tiebreaker with a 2-1 win in the season series, so they are currently on top. The Lakers will probably end up at #3, but the Clippers and Grizzlies both have them in their sights. Dallas is the only other team that could get into the top 4 for home court in the first round, but more likely they will end up in the lower half. There are five teams in contention for those final 3 spots, and the edge goes to those that are currently ahead, especially since Phoenix has the toughest remaining schedule in the league. Every night is going to be important going forward for the final 5, because it could swing toward any of them.
Thursday, April 5, 2012
College Basketball Rankings - Final
Kentucky just became only the second team to win the tournament after being named the top seed beforehand, so there isn't much debate as to which team belongs at #1. But where do all the other teams fit? There were a lot of teams that lost earlier than expected (Missouri), and several that went deeper than we thought (Louisville), so ranking the teams is a little difficult, but I'll let you know where each team stands after every game for the entire season is taken into account. I've included each team's overall record, final season result, and pre-tournament ranking, and also put gaps between groups of teams to show different levels of performance.
TW. Team (Overall) Rating (Final Result) (PTR)
1. Kentucky (37-2) -20.09 (Champion) (2)
2. Ohio State (31-8) -18.58 (Final Four) (1)
3. North Carolina (32-6) -17.27 (Elite Eight) (3)
4. Kansas (32-6) -16.68 (Championship Game) (5)
5. Michigan State (29-8) -16.55 (Sweet 16) (4)
6. Syracuse (34-3) -15.98 (Elite Eight) (6)
7. Wichita State (27-6) -14.76 (Round of 64) (8)
8. Missouri (30-5) -14.68 (Round of 64) (7)
9. Memphis (26-9) -14.62 (Round of 64) (9)
10. Wisconsin (26-10) -14.59 (Sweet 16) (10)
11. Florida (26-11) -13.86 (Elite Eight) (12)
12. Louisville (30-10) -13.08 (Final Four) (21)
13. Vanderbilt (25-11) -12.66 (Round of 32) (16)
14. Georgetown (24-9) -12.64 (Round of 32) (14)
15. Indiana (27-9) -12.504 (Sweet 16) (19)
16. Marquette (27-8) -12.502 (Sweet 16) (13)
17. Duke (27-7) -12.23 (Round of 64) (11)
18. Baylor (30-8) -12.05 (Elite Eight) (18)
19. New Mexico (28-7) -11.92 (Round of 32) (17)
20. Saint Louis (26-8) -11.87 (Round of 32) (22)
21. Belmont (27-8) -11.70 (Round of 64) (15)
22. Florida State (25-10) -10.66 (Round of 32) (20)
23. Gonzaga (26-7) -10.05 (Round of 32) (NR)
24. Kansas State (22-11) -9.98 (Round of 32) (23)
25. Cincinnati (26-11) -9.80 (Sweet 16) (NR)
Dropping Out
Alabama (21-12) -9.49 (Round of 64) (25)
Creighton (29-6) -8.77 (Round of 32) (24)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big East - 5
Big 10 - 4
Big 12 - 4
SEC - 3
ACC - 3
MVC - 1
CUSA - 1
MWC - 1
Atl 10 - 1
Atl Sun - 1
WCC - 1
Louisville nearly pulled off the same feat as Connecticut did last season, winning the Big East tournament despite being seeded pretty low, then making a run to the Final Four as a #4 seed. They didn't win the entire thing, but they did put on an impressive show over the past month, and two of the teams they beat are ranked in the top 11 today.
Gonzaga entered the top 25 for the first time all season, even though they only won one tournament game. That game was a blowout of West Virginia, and they followed it up with a very strong showing against Ohio State, my pre-tourney #1, so the Bulldogs have earned a spot in the final rankings of the season, which gave the West Coast Conference its only representative.
The other team that jumped into the final top 25 was Cincinnati, another team that lost to Ohio State. The Bearcats allowed the Big East to gain its fifth ranked team, putting them ahead of all other conferences for yet another season. Their only losses during the last month were to Louisville in the Big East title game and to Ohio State in the Sweet 16, with wins over Georgetown, Florida State, and Syracuse mixed in.
Duke ended up losing three of their final four games, including their loss to North Carolina in the season finale, their loss to Florida State in the ACC Tournament, and their loss to 15th-seed Lehigh in the NCAA Tournament. Even sadder is that the last loss took place in Duke's backyard, and another good regular season ended in disappointment.
Prediction Results
College Basketball: 50-17 (.746) 603-165 overall (.785)
Upsets: 5-2 (.714) 59-41 overall (.590)
TW. Team (Overall) Rating (Final Result) (PTR)
1. Kentucky (37-2) -20.09 (Champion) (2)
2. Ohio State (31-8) -18.58 (Final Four) (1)
3. North Carolina (32-6) -17.27 (Elite Eight) (3)
4. Kansas (32-6) -16.68 (Championship Game) (5)
5. Michigan State (29-8) -16.55 (Sweet 16) (4)
6. Syracuse (34-3) -15.98 (Elite Eight) (6)
7. Wichita State (27-6) -14.76 (Round of 64) (8)
8. Missouri (30-5) -14.68 (Round of 64) (7)
9. Memphis (26-9) -14.62 (Round of 64) (9)
10. Wisconsin (26-10) -14.59 (Sweet 16) (10)
11. Florida (26-11) -13.86 (Elite Eight) (12)
12. Louisville (30-10) -13.08 (Final Four) (21)
13. Vanderbilt (25-11) -12.66 (Round of 32) (16)
14. Georgetown (24-9) -12.64 (Round of 32) (14)
15. Indiana (27-9) -12.504 (Sweet 16) (19)
16. Marquette (27-8) -12.502 (Sweet 16) (13)
17. Duke (27-7) -12.23 (Round of 64) (11)
18. Baylor (30-8) -12.05 (Elite Eight) (18)
19. New Mexico (28-7) -11.92 (Round of 32) (17)
20. Saint Louis (26-8) -11.87 (Round of 32) (22)
21. Belmont (27-8) -11.70 (Round of 64) (15)
22. Florida State (25-10) -10.66 (Round of 32) (20)
23. Gonzaga (26-7) -10.05 (Round of 32) (NR)
24. Kansas State (22-11) -9.98 (Round of 32) (23)
25. Cincinnati (26-11) -9.80 (Sweet 16) (NR)
Dropping Out
Alabama (21-12) -9.49 (Round of 64) (25)
Creighton (29-6) -8.77 (Round of 32) (24)
Ranked Teams by Conference
Big East - 5
Big 10 - 4
Big 12 - 4
SEC - 3
ACC - 3
MVC - 1
CUSA - 1
MWC - 1
Atl 10 - 1
Atl Sun - 1
WCC - 1
Louisville nearly pulled off the same feat as Connecticut did last season, winning the Big East tournament despite being seeded pretty low, then making a run to the Final Four as a #4 seed. They didn't win the entire thing, but they did put on an impressive show over the past month, and two of the teams they beat are ranked in the top 11 today.
Gonzaga entered the top 25 for the first time all season, even though they only won one tournament game. That game was a blowout of West Virginia, and they followed it up with a very strong showing against Ohio State, my pre-tourney #1, so the Bulldogs have earned a spot in the final rankings of the season, which gave the West Coast Conference its only representative.
The other team that jumped into the final top 25 was Cincinnati, another team that lost to Ohio State. The Bearcats allowed the Big East to gain its fifth ranked team, putting them ahead of all other conferences for yet another season. Their only losses during the last month were to Louisville in the Big East title game and to Ohio State in the Sweet 16, with wins over Georgetown, Florida State, and Syracuse mixed in.
Duke ended up losing three of their final four games, including their loss to North Carolina in the season finale, their loss to Florida State in the ACC Tournament, and their loss to 15th-seed Lehigh in the NCAA Tournament. Even sadder is that the last loss took place in Duke's backyard, and another good regular season ended in disappointment.
Prediction Results
College Basketball: 50-17 (.746) 603-165 overall (.785)
Upsets: 5-2 (.714) 59-41 overall (.590)
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
NBA Rankings - 3 Apr
The Oklahoma City Thunder have beaten both of the top teams in the East within the past 10 days, which has caused a power shift among the top teams in the league. Either Chicago or Miami has held the top spot every week this season since January 22nd, but that streak has come to an end as the Thunder rolls through the West. Here are the current rankings, with gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.
TW. Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (LW)
1. Oklahoma City (3-1) (40-13) -6.71 (3)
2. Chicago (2-3) (42-13) -6.68 (1)
3. Miami (2-2) (37-14) -6.38 (2)
4. San Antonio (3-0) (36-14) -5.47 (5)
5. Philadelphia (2-1) (29-23) -4.73 (4)
6. New York (3-1) (27-26) -2.95 (8)
7. Indiana (3-2) (31-21) -2.27 (6)
8. LA Lakers (3-1) (33-20) -2.22 (7)
9. LA Clippers (5-0) (32-21) -2.01 (13)
10. Boston (4-0) (30-22) -1.65 (17)
11. Memphis (3-1) (29-22) -1.46 (11)
12. Orlando (1-3) (32-21) -1.39 (9)
13. Milwaukee (3-2) (25-28) -1.33 (14)
14. Atlanta (1-3) (31-23) -1.02 (10)
15. Houston (3-2) (29-25) -0.72 (18)
16. Denver (3-1) (29-24) -0.48 (20)
17. Utah (2-3) (28-26) -0.38 (15)
18. Dallas (2-2) (30-24) -0.28 (12)
19. Phoenix (1-2) (26-26) 0.04 (16)
20. Portland (2-3) (25-29) 0.44 (21)
21. Minnesota (1-4) (25-30) 1.30 (19)
22. Golden State (0-4) (20-31) 3.53 (22)
23. Toronto (2-2) (18-35) 4.13 (23)
24. New Orleans (1-4) (13-40) 4.24 (25)
25. Detroit (3-1) (19-33) 4.79 (26)
26. Sacramento (2-3) (19-34) 4.79 (24)
27. Washington (1-4) (12-41) 5.73 (28)
28. New Jersey (3-1) (19-35) 6.19 (29)
29. Cleveland (0-4) (17-33) 7.26 (27)
30. Charlotte (0-4) (7-43) 12.47 (30)
Oklahoma City is the first Western Conference team to top my rankings this season, and they did it with a 6-game winning streak, which included wins over Chicago, Miami, and both Los Angeles teams, all by at least 9 points. A huge rematch with Miami is coming up tomorrow, and the Heat would desperately like to tie the season series.
Since Vinny Del Negro received a vote of confidence from Clippers management, the Clippers have gone on a tear, winning 6 in a row and beating 5 potential West playoff foes in the process. They play the Lakers tomorrow night on national television, and a victory would pull the Staples Center foes into a tie with each other for the Pacific Division lead.
Boston's huge jump this week has a lot more to do with last night's win over Miami than with the other 4 wins in their current 5-game streak. Ho-hum victories over Charlotte and Washington don't impress anybody, but a 19-point beatdown of the sizzling Heat and a spot on top of the Atlantic Division for the first time all season have them feeling pretty good right now.
Orlando's hot streak ended this week with three straight losses to marginal playoff teams, but they are still in strong position for the playoffs in an Eastern Conference race that is pretty diluted after the top two teams. The Magic face both New York and Philadelphia this week on TV, and while both have been pretty good lately, they do have some flaws that could allow Orlando to rebound and start another winning streak.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Tuesday
San Antonio at Cleveland - Spurs by 10
New York at Indiana - Pacers by 2
Charlotte at Toronto - Raptors by 11
Orlando at Detroit - Magic by 3
Philadelphia at Miami - Heat by 5
Golden State at Memphis - Grizzlies by 8
Phoenix at Sacramento - Suns by 2
New Jersey at LA Lakers - Lakers by 11
Wednesday
Toronto at Philadelphia - 76ers by 12
Indiana at Washington - Pacers by 5
Charlotte at Atlanta - Hawks by 16
San Antonio at Boston - Spurs by 1
Denver at New Orleans - Nuggets by 2
Oklahoma City at Miami - Heat by 3
Cleveland at Milwaukee - Bucks by 12
Golden State at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 5
Memphis at Dallas - Mavericks by 2
Phoenix at Utah - Jazz by 3
New Jersey at Portland - Trail Blazers by 9
LA Lakers vs. LA Clippers - Lakers by 1
Thursday
New York at Orlando - Magic by 1
Washington at Detroit - Pistons by 4
Boston at Chicago - Bulls by 8
LA Clippers at Sacramento - Clippers by 4
Friday
Oklahoma City at Indiana - Thunder by 2
Detroit at Atlanta - Hawks by 9
Memphis at Miami - Heat by 8
Washington at New Jersey - Nets by 2
Cleveland at Toronto - Raptors by 6
Portland at Dallas - Mavericks by 4
Charlotte at Milwaukee - Bucks by 17
New Orleans at San Antonio - Spurs by 13
Golden State at Utah - Jazz by 7
Phoenix at Denver - Nuggets by 3
Houston at LA Lakers - Lakers by 4
Saturday
Boston at Indiana - Pacers by 4
Minnesota at New Orleans - Timberwolves by 1
Orlando at Philadelphia - 76ers by 6
Dallas at Memphis - Grizzlies by 4
Atlanta at Charlotte - Hawks by 11
Portland at Milwaukee - Bucks by 5
LA Lakers at Phoenix - Suns by 1
Denver at Golden State - Nuggets by 1
Sacramento at LA Clippers - Clippers by 10
Sunday
Chicago at New York - Bulls by 1
Philadelphia at Boston - 76ers by 1
Detroit at Miami - Heat by 14
Cleveland at New Jersey - Nets by 4
Utah at San Antonio - Spurs by 8
Toronto at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 14
Houston at Sacramento - Rockets by 3
Prediction Results
NBA: 41-17 (.707) 352-183 overall (.658)
Upsets: 6-4 (.600) 55-45 overall (.550)
TW. Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (LW)
1. Oklahoma City (3-1) (40-13) -6.71 (3)
2. Chicago (2-3) (42-13) -6.68 (1)
3. Miami (2-2) (37-14) -6.38 (2)
4. San Antonio (3-0) (36-14) -5.47 (5)
5. Philadelphia (2-1) (29-23) -4.73 (4)
6. New York (3-1) (27-26) -2.95 (8)
7. Indiana (3-2) (31-21) -2.27 (6)
8. LA Lakers (3-1) (33-20) -2.22 (7)
9. LA Clippers (5-0) (32-21) -2.01 (13)
10. Boston (4-0) (30-22) -1.65 (17)
11. Memphis (3-1) (29-22) -1.46 (11)
12. Orlando (1-3) (32-21) -1.39 (9)
13. Milwaukee (3-2) (25-28) -1.33 (14)
14. Atlanta (1-3) (31-23) -1.02 (10)
15. Houston (3-2) (29-25) -0.72 (18)
16. Denver (3-1) (29-24) -0.48 (20)
17. Utah (2-3) (28-26) -0.38 (15)
18. Dallas (2-2) (30-24) -0.28 (12)
19. Phoenix (1-2) (26-26) 0.04 (16)
20. Portland (2-3) (25-29) 0.44 (21)
21. Minnesota (1-4) (25-30) 1.30 (19)
22. Golden State (0-4) (20-31) 3.53 (22)
23. Toronto (2-2) (18-35) 4.13 (23)
24. New Orleans (1-4) (13-40) 4.24 (25)
25. Detroit (3-1) (19-33) 4.79 (26)
26. Sacramento (2-3) (19-34) 4.79 (24)
27. Washington (1-4) (12-41) 5.73 (28)
28. New Jersey (3-1) (19-35) 6.19 (29)
29. Cleveland (0-4) (17-33) 7.26 (27)
30. Charlotte (0-4) (7-43) 12.47 (30)
Oklahoma City is the first Western Conference team to top my rankings this season, and they did it with a 6-game winning streak, which included wins over Chicago, Miami, and both Los Angeles teams, all by at least 9 points. A huge rematch with Miami is coming up tomorrow, and the Heat would desperately like to tie the season series.
Since Vinny Del Negro received a vote of confidence from Clippers management, the Clippers have gone on a tear, winning 6 in a row and beating 5 potential West playoff foes in the process. They play the Lakers tomorrow night on national television, and a victory would pull the Staples Center foes into a tie with each other for the Pacific Division lead.
Boston's huge jump this week has a lot more to do with last night's win over Miami than with the other 4 wins in their current 5-game streak. Ho-hum victories over Charlotte and Washington don't impress anybody, but a 19-point beatdown of the sizzling Heat and a spot on top of the Atlantic Division for the first time all season have them feeling pretty good right now.
Orlando's hot streak ended this week with three straight losses to marginal playoff teams, but they are still in strong position for the playoffs in an Eastern Conference race that is pretty diluted after the top two teams. The Magic face both New York and Philadelphia this week on TV, and while both have been pretty good lately, they do have some flaws that could allow Orlando to rebound and start another winning streak.
Predictions
Upset picks are in italics.
Tuesday
San Antonio at Cleveland - Spurs by 10
New York at Indiana - Pacers by 2
Charlotte at Toronto - Raptors by 11
Orlando at Detroit - Magic by 3
Philadelphia at Miami - Heat by 5
Golden State at Memphis - Grizzlies by 8
Phoenix at Sacramento - Suns by 2
New Jersey at LA Lakers - Lakers by 11
Wednesday
Toronto at Philadelphia - 76ers by 12
Indiana at Washington - Pacers by 5
Charlotte at Atlanta - Hawks by 16
San Antonio at Boston - Spurs by 1
Denver at New Orleans - Nuggets by 2
Oklahoma City at Miami - Heat by 3
Cleveland at Milwaukee - Bucks by 12
Golden State at Minnesota - Timberwolves by 5
Memphis at Dallas - Mavericks by 2
Phoenix at Utah - Jazz by 3
New Jersey at Portland - Trail Blazers by 9
LA Lakers vs. LA Clippers - Lakers by 1
Thursday
New York at Orlando - Magic by 1
Washington at Detroit - Pistons by 4
Boston at Chicago - Bulls by 8
LA Clippers at Sacramento - Clippers by 4
Friday
Oklahoma City at Indiana - Thunder by 2
Detroit at Atlanta - Hawks by 9
Memphis at Miami - Heat by 8
Washington at New Jersey - Nets by 2
Cleveland at Toronto - Raptors by 6
Portland at Dallas - Mavericks by 4
Charlotte at Milwaukee - Bucks by 17
New Orleans at San Antonio - Spurs by 13
Golden State at Utah - Jazz by 7
Phoenix at Denver - Nuggets by 3
Houston at LA Lakers - Lakers by 4
Saturday
Boston at Indiana - Pacers by 4
Minnesota at New Orleans - Timberwolves by 1
Orlando at Philadelphia - 76ers by 6
Dallas at Memphis - Grizzlies by 4
Atlanta at Charlotte - Hawks by 11
Portland at Milwaukee - Bucks by 5
LA Lakers at Phoenix - Suns by 1
Denver at Golden State - Nuggets by 1
Sacramento at LA Clippers - Clippers by 10
Sunday
Chicago at New York - Bulls by 1
Philadelphia at Boston - 76ers by 1
Detroit at Miami - Heat by 14
Cleveland at New Jersey - Nets by 4
Utah at San Antonio - Spurs by 8
Toronto at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 14
Houston at Sacramento - Rockets by 3
Prediction Results
NBA: 41-17 (.707) 352-183 overall (.658)
Upsets: 6-4 (.600) 55-45 overall (.550)
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