NBA Playoff Odds

The regular season has ended, and the playoffs are starting in just a few hours, giving team very little time to prepare for their first opponents, but keeping the fans interested and involved by reducing down time. The top four teams have been set in stone for months it seems, and those four teams are still the most likely to win the championship, but there are several other teams that could make runs deep into the playoffs. A couple of playoff teams have been weakened by injury or suspension, and it could cause those teams to exit the playoffs a little faster than expected. Here are my odds for teams advancing in the playoffs, and the odds of seeing various Finals matchups, along with my predictions for how the playoffs will shake out.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

1. Denver over LA Lakers - 61.3%
2. LA Clippers over Memphis - 52.1%
3. Atlanta over Boston - 50.8%
4. New York over Miami - 37.9%

The Lakers have been weakened by the loss of "World Peace," possibly the least accurate name ever chosen, and Kobe has had his worst shooting season of his career. The Lakers played better when he was out, so I just don't see them beating a Denver team that is getting healthy at the right time. The Clippers and Memphis switched spots on the last day of the season, but with the way Chris Paul turns it on in the playoffs, I don't see them going down in the first round. Atlanta is technically an upset, since they are the #5 seed, but since they have a better record than the Celtics, who won their division to earn the #4 seed, the Hawks have home court advantage in the first round, which gives them a slight advantage. I'm not picking New York to beat Miami, but of all the top teams, Miami seems to be the most likely to drop the ball in the first round, and who better to knock them out than their hated rivals up in New York?

Most Likely First Round Winners

1. San Antonio over Utah - 89.4%
2. Oklahoma City over Dallas - 79.5%
2. Chicago over Philadelphia - 79.5%
4. Indiana over Orlando - 71.5%

The Spurs just completed their third double-digit winning streak of the season, which is especially impressive considering that the season was shortened by 16 games. It's also worth noting that the first two streaks ended by choice, with the Spurs choosing to rest their stars each time a winning streak reached 11, but don't expect that to happen again. The Jazz already got their free victory from the Spurs this month. Orlando is the worst team in the playoffs, thanks to Dwight Howard's injury, but I'm not sure they were really that good with him either, because of all the internal problems he's caused with trade demands and trying to get rid of his coach. Look for the Pacers to win that series easily.

Most Likely to Make Conference Finals

1. San Antonio - 73.7%
2. Chicago - 59.5%
3. Oklahoma City - 57.4%
4. Miami - 42.5%
5. Indiana - 29.9%
6. Denver - 24.1%
7. New York - 20.7%
8. Boston - 16.1%
9. Atlanta - 15.9%
10. LA Clippers - 12.6%
11. LA Lakers - 10.5%
12. Memphis - 9.9%
13. Philadelphia - 8.5%
14. Dallas - 8.0%
15. Orlando - 6.8%
16. Utah - 3.9%

The top seeds are the most likely to make it to the conference finals, but Denver could surprise some people out West coming out of the #6 spot, while the East is full of teams that could potentially pull an upset, including the surprising star-free Pacers, the big-man-heavy Knicks, and the experienced Celtics. This is one of the first times in recent memory where the Eastern Conference is the more wide-open conference.

Most Likely the Make the NBA Finals

1. San Antonio - 54.0%
2. Chicago - 43.8%
3. Oklahoma City - 25.4%
4. Miami - 19.0%
5. Indiana - 10.2%
6. Boston - 7.9%
7. Atlanta - 7.5%
8. Denver - 7.1%
9. New York - 7.0%
10. LA Clippers - 5.2%
11. Memphis - 3.6%
12. Philadelphia - 3.5%
13. LA Lakers - 2.1%
14. Dallas - 1.5%
15. Orlando - 1.2%
16. Utah - 1.1%

Other than the top 4, the only team that has a strong chance of making the Finals is Indiana. The top 4 teams have all been ranked among my top 5 teams for over 2 months, and it's unlikely that you won't see some pairing of them in the Finals this year.

Most Likely Champions

1. San Antonio - 37.3%
2. Chicago - 24.0%
3. Oklahoma City - 14.4%
4. Miami - 6.9%
5. Indiana - 2.8%
5. Denver - 2.8%
7. Boston - 2.3%
8. Atlanta - 2.1%
9. LA Clippers - 2.0%
10. New York - 1.9%
11. Memphis - 1.3%

The other 5 teams have no chance at winning and are not even worth mentioning, except for the fact that one of them is West #3 seed Los Angeles and another is the defending champion Dallas Mavericks.

Finals Matchup Odds

Dallas vs. Miami rematch - 0.3%
Lakers vs. Celtics - 0.2%

Not gonna happen.

2 Former MVP's - 40.7% (James, Nowitzki, Bryant, Duncan, Garnett, Rose)

It's amazing that each of these players is still pretty relevant. The only former MVP to miss the playoffs this year was Steve Nash.

Former Scoring Leaders - 7.3% (Durant, James, Wade, Bryant, McGrady)

Did you even know McGrady was still in the league? Apparently he's averaging 5 points per game off the bench for Atlanta.

Carmelo past vs. Carmelo present - 0.5%

The most interesting thing here is that the Nuggets, a team with no stars, has a better chance of getting there than the Knicks, with their two high-priced superstars.

Former Rebounding Leaders - 0.0%

The only rebounding champ who will be in the playoffs is Garnett, because Howard is out with an injury, and Kevin Love and Ben Wallace play on crappy teams.

Former Assist Leaders - 1.1% (Kidd, Andre Miller, Rondo, Paul)

Wouldn't Rondo vs. Paul be a great point guard matchup in the Finals? Two great little guards who fill up the stat sheet facing off would be awesome.

Former Finals MVP's - 15.4% (Pierce, Nowitzki, Bryant, Duncan, Parker, Wade)

It's very interesting that each of these players is still with the team where they won the award, and none has even played for another NBA team. Is that a bad omen for LeBron?

Playoff Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

First Round

Bulls over 76ers in 5
Celtics over Hawks in 6
Pacers over Magic in 5
Heat over Knicks in 7
Spurs over Jazz in 5
Clippers over Grizzlies in 6
Nuggets over Lakers in 6
Thunder over Mavericks in 5

Second Round

Bulls over Celtics in 5
Heat over Pacers in 7
Spurs over Clippers in 5
Thunder over Nuggets in 5

Conference Finals

Bulls over Heat in 5
Spurs over Thunder in 5

NBA Finals

Spurs over Bulls in 7

Tim Duncan pulls into a tie with Kobe Bryant as the active player with the most rings and joins Kareem, Havlicek, Horry, and Parish as the only players to win championships at least 13 years apart.