Monday, April 9, 2012

NBA Rankings - 9 Apr

We're coming down the homestretch, and the three teams that have been sitting at the top for the entire season all seem to be shrinking away from the mantle of best team, so a team that has been there before many times over the past decade swooped in and took over the top spot for the first time this season, thanks to an 11-game winning streak, their second of the season. Here are this week's rankings, with rising teams in green, falling teams in red, and gaps between groups of teams representing different levels of performance.

TW. Team (Week) (Overall) Rating (LW)
1. San Antonio (4-0) (40-14) -7.77 (4)
2. Oklahoma City (1-2) (41-15) -7.64 (1)
3. Chicago (1-1) (43-14) -7.30 (2)
4. Miami (3-1) (40-15) -6.89 (3)

5. New York (2-1) (29-27) -4.21 (6)

6. Boston (2-2) (32-24) -3.27 (10)
7. LA Clippers (2-1) (34-22) -3.13 (9)
8. Memphis (3-1) (32-23) -3.05 (11)
9. Indiana (3-1) (34-22) -2.93 (7)
10. Philadelphia (0-4) (29-27) -2.92 (5)
11. Houston (2-0) (31-25) -2.63 (15)
12. LA Lakers (2-2) (35-22) -2.30 (8)
13. Atlanta (3-0) (34-23) -2.19 (14)
14. Milwaukee (3-0) (28-28) -2.07 (13)
15. Dallas (1-2) (31-26) -1.91 (18)
16. Phoenix (3-1) (29-27) -1.65 (19)
17. Orlando (1-2) (33-23) -1.34 (12)
18. Utah (1-2) (29-28) -1.22 (17)
19. Denver (1-2) (30-26) -1.00 (16)
20. Portland (2-1) (27-30) -0.94 (20)

21. Minnesota (0-2) (25-32) 0.83 (21)
22. Golden State (2-2) (22-33) 1.53 (22)

23. Toronto (2-2) (20-37) 2.94 (23)
24. New Orleans (2-1) (15-41) 3.18 (24)
25. Sacramento (0-4) (19-38) 3.85 (26)
26. Detroit (2-2) (21-35) 4.11 (25)

27. New Jersey (2-2) (21-37) 5.22 (28)
28. Washington (0-3) (12-44) 5.70 (27)

29. Cleveland (1-3) (18-36) 7.24 (29)

30. Charlotte (0-4) (7-47) 11.87 (30)

Playoff Seeding Predictions

Each team is listed with its predicted final record, along with the change in that prediction since Friday, when I posted my original predictions.

Eastern Conference

1. Chicago (50-16)
2. Miami (48-18) -1

3. Indiana (41-25) +1
5. Atlanta (39-27)
6. Orlando (39-27) +1

4. Boston (38-28) +2

7. New York (35-31)
8. Philadelphia (35-31) -1
9. Milwaukee (34-32) +1

Boston made a huge move this week, losing to the top team in each conference, then following that up with blowout victories over Indiana and Philadelphia, who had both been predicted to be among the top 4 seeds entering the playoffs. This put Boston into the #4 spot, where they will earn home court in the first round, and it also made them the only team in the league that appears to be locked into its seeding at this point.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, has lost 4 in a row and is in danger of not even making the playoffs just three days after I put them in as the probable Atlantic Division champion. Among their four losses was a blowout at home against Toronto, a team that has had nothing to play for since All-Star weekend, and the 76ers, who looked so strong early in the season, may need to win their next three in a row just to avoid missing the playoffs altogether.

Western Conference

1. San Antonio (49-17) +1
2. Oklahoma City (48-18) 

3. LA Lakers (39-27) -2
4. LA Clippers (39-27) 
5. Memphis (39-27) +1

6. Houston (36-30) +1
7. Dallas (35-31) -1
8. Denver (35-31)
9. Phoenix (33-33)
10. Utah (33-33)

The biggest change here is that the Lakers, Clippers, and Grizzlies are now in a dead heat for the final two top seeds, with the Lakers getting the advantage due to their 4-2 record against the other 2 this season. Tonight's Clippers-Grizzlies game will be very important, but probably only in determining which is at #4 at the end of the season.

Houston beat both the Bulls and the Lakers this week, and although they are probably about as high as they will get in the standings now, their chances of making the playoffs are looking pretty secure now. It's the defending champs that now have to worry about missing out completely, with the Suns and Jazz both sitting patiently waiting to see which team is ready to fall.

Predictions

Upset picks are in italics.

Tuesday

Charlotte at Cleveland - Cavaliers by 8
Boston at Miami - Heat by 7
Orlando at Washington - Magic by 4
Philadelphia at New Jersey - 76ers by 5
Sacramento at Dallas - Mavericks by 9
New York at Chicago - Bulls by 6

Wednesday

Indiana at Cleveland - Pacers by 7
Philadelphia at Toronto - 76ers by 3
Atlanta at Boston - Celtics by 4
Phoenix at Memphis - Grizzlies by 4
Sacramento at New Orleans - Hornets by 4
Utah at Houston - Rockets by 4
New York at Milwaukee - Bucks by 1
LA Clippers at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 7
LA Lakers at San Antonio - Spurs by 8
Minnesota at Denver - Nuggets by 5
Golden State at Portland - Trail Blazers by 5

Thursday

Detroit at Charlotte - Pistons by 5
Miami at Chicago - Bulls by 3
LA Clippers at Minnesota - Clippers by 1
Memphis at San Antonio - Spurs by 8
Dallas at Golden State - Mavericks by 1

Friday

Cleveland at Indiana - Pacers by 13
Atlanta at Orlando - Magic by 2
New Jersey at Philadelphia - 76ers by 11
Boston at Toronto - Celtics by 3
Charlotte at Miami - Heat by 22
Washington at New York - Knicks by 13
Phoenix at Houston - Rockets by 4
Utah at New Orleans - Jazz by 2
Milwaukee at Detroit - Bucks by 3
Sacramento at Oklahoma City - Thunder by 14
Denver at LA Lakers - Lakers by 4
Dallas at Portland - Trail Blazers by 2

Saturday

Golden State at LA Clippers - Clippers by 8
Cleveland at Washington - Wizards by 4
Boston at New Jersey - Celtics by 6
Oklahoma City at Minnesota - Thunder by 6
Utah at Memphis - Grizzlies by 5
Indiana at Milwaukee - Bucks by 2
Phoenix at San Antonio - Spurs by 9

Sunday

Miami at New York - Knicks by 1
Dallas at LA Lakers - Lakers by 3
Toronto at Atlanta - Hawks by 8
Orlando at Cleveland - Magic by 6
Chicago at Detroit - Bulls by 9
Portland at Sacramento - Trail Blazers by 2
Boston at Charlotte - Celtics by 12
Memphis at New Orleans - Grizzlies by 3
Houston at Denver - Nuggets by 1

Prediction Results

NBA: 35-16 (.686) 387-199 overall (.660)
Upsets: 4-1 (.800) 59-46 overall (.562)

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