NFL Playoff Odds - 2018

The NFL Playoffs open this weekend with 4 wild card games, with 3 NFC teams featuring quarterbacks who have played in the Super Bowl, while the AFC field this week has never been there. I've broken down the odds of any team beating any other, which field they would play on, and the odds of that matchup occurring to determine each team's odds of advancing through each round and eventually winning the Super Bowl:

Wild Card Odds

1. Jaguars - 76.6%
2. Chiefs - 70.0%
3. Saints - 66.5%
4. Rams - 63.4%
5. Falcons - 36.6%
6. Panthers - 33.5%
7. Titans - 30.0%
8. Bills - 23.4%

Odds of Winning Divisional Round

1. Patriots - 76.5%
2. Eagles - 61.4%
3. Vikings - 61.0%
4. Steelers - 57.2%
5. Jaguars - 34.5%
6. Saints - 28.8%
7. Rams - 24.9%
8. Chiefs - 22.2%
9. Falcons - 12.8%
10. Panthers - 11.2%
11. Titans - 5.8%
12. Bills - 3.8%

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. Patriots - 51.5%
2. Eagles - 34.6%
3. Vikings - 32.0%
4. Steelers - 23.1%
5. Jaguars - 15.5%
6. Saints - 13.4%
7. Rams - 12.0%
8. Chiefs - 8.5%
9. Falcons - 4.4%
10. Panthers - 4.1%
11. Titans - 1.5%
12. Bills - 0.9%

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Patriots - 25.9%
2. Vikings - 20.1%
3. Eagles - 18.7%
4. Steelers - 9.2%
5. Saints - 7.3%
6. Jaguars - 6.4%
7. Rams - 6.2%
8. Chiefs - 3.0%
9. Falcons - 2.0%
10. Panthers - 1.8%
11. Titans - 0.3%
12. Bills - 0.2%

The defending champs have the best odds of winning it all this year, which would be the first time a team successfully defended their title since the Patriots did it 13 years ago. The Vikings are attempting to become the first team ever to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium, and they are the second most likely NFC team to reach the big game and the most likely NFC team to win it, thanks to home field advantage.

My Picks

Wild Card

(3) Jaguars over (6) Bills by 11
(4) Chiefs over (5) Titans by 8
(3) Rams over (6) Falcons by 5
(4) Saints over (5) Panthers by 7

Divisional
(1) Patriots over (4) Chiefs by 9
(3) Jaguars over (2) Steelers by 2
(4) Saints over (1) Eagles by 2
(2) Vikings over (3) Rams by 4

Conference Championships

(1) Patriots over (3) Jaguars by 6
(4) Saints over (2) Vikings by 1

Super Bowl

(4) Saints over (1) Patriots by 3