This is my first weekly breakdown of the teams that have a chance at being selected to play in the NCAA Tournament this March, with teams separated by conference and by how likely they are to make the tournament based on what they've done so far and what is left on their schedule. Record vs. good teams includes games against teams on this page, bad losses are against teams not on this page, RPI rank and record in parentheses.
American
Should Be In
(25) Cincinnati (17-2) - Good: 5-2, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
(27) Wichita State (15-4) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 0
(50) Houston (15-4) - Good: 3-2, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
(55) SMU (14-6) - Good: 5-3, Bad Losses: 3
(58) UCF (13-6) - Good: 2-4, Bad Losses: 2
Atlantic 10
Good Chance
(9) Rhode Island (15-3) - Good: 3-3, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
(51) St. Bonaventure (12-6) - Good: 4-2, Bad Losses: 4
ACC
Probably In
(4) Virginia (19-1) - Good: 7-1, Bad Losses: 0
(1) Duke (17-2) - Good: 5-2, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
(5) North Carolina (16-5) - Good: 7-4, Bad Losses: 1
(6) Clemson (16-3) - Good: 8-2, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
(13) Louisville (15-4) - Good: 4-4, Bad Losses: 0
(20) Miami (14-4) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 1
(38) Florida State (14-5) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
(59) Notre Dame (13-7) - Good: 4-4, Bad Losses: 3
(79) NC State (13-7) - Good: 3-5, Bad Losses: 2
(63) Boston College (13-7) - Good: 2-7, Bad Losses: 0
(41) Syracuse (13-6) - Good: 3-5, Bad Losses: 1
(77) Virginia Tech (14-6) - Good: 2-5, Bad Losses: 1
Big 12
Should Be In
(7) Kansas (16-3) - Good: 10-3, Bad Losses: 0
(21) West Virginia (16-4) - Good: 9-4, Bad Losses: 0
(22) Texas Tech (15-4) - Good: 6-4, Bad Losses: 0
(11) Oklahoma (14-4) - Good: 6-4, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
(53) Kansas State (15-5) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 1
(42) Texas (13-7) - Good: 6-7, Bad Losses: 0
(16) TCU (15-5) - Good: 6-5, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
(89) Baylor (12-8) - Good: 3-8, Bad Losses: 0
(83) Oklahoma State (13-6) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 0
(78) Iowa State (11-8) - Good: 3-7, Bad Losses: 1
Big East
Definitely In
(2) Villanova (18-1) - Good: 5-1, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
(3) Xavier (18-3) - Good: 7-3, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
(34) Creighton (15-5) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 0
(26) Butler (14-7) - Good: 4-7, Bad Losses: 0
(37) Providence (14-6) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 1
(19) Seton Hall (15-5) - Good: 4-4, Bad Losses: 1
(44) Marquette (13-6) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 0
Big Ten
Probably In
(10) Purdue (19-2) - Good: 8-2, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
(15) Ohio State (18-4) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 0
(29) Michigan State (18-3) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
(39) Michigan (17-5) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 0
(52) Maryland (15-7) - Good: 2-6, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
(64) Nebraska (14-8) - Good: 3-6, Bad Losses: 2
(74) Minnesota (14-8) - Good: 2-6, Bad Losses: 2
Conference USA
Still a Chance
(32) Middle Tennessee (14-5) - Good: 1-3, Bad Losses: 2
(46) Western Kentucky (14-6) - Good: 2-2, Bad Losses: 4
(95) Old Dominion (15-4) - Good: 0-1, Bad Losses: 3
Mountain West
Good Chance
(14) Nevada (18-3) - Good: 2-2, Bad Losses: 1
(35) Boise State (16-4) - Good: 1-3, Bad Losses: 1
Pac 12
Good Chance
(17) Arizona (16-4) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 1
(40) USC (15-6) - Good: 3-4, Bad Losses: 2
(31) Arizona State (15-4) - Good: 4-1, Bad Losses: 3
Still a Chance
(49) Washington (14-6) - Good: 2-5, Bad Losses: 1
(57) Utah (12-7) - Good: 2-6, Bad Losses: 1
(60) UCLA (13-7) - Good: 3-3, Bad Losses: 4
SEC
Should Be In
(8) Auburn (17-2) - Good: 5-1, Bad Losses: 1
(12) Tennessee (13-5) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
(23) Florida (14-5) - Good: 7-4, Bad Losses: 1
(18) Kentucky (14-5) - Good: 7-4, Bad Losses: 1
(36) Missouri (13-6) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 1
(24) Alabama (13-6) - Good: 6-5, Bad Losses: 1
(30) Arkansas (13-6) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 0
(28) Texas A&M (13-6) - Good: 5-6, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
(48) Georgia (12-6) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 3
(90) LSU (11-7) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 2
(68) Mississippi State (14-5) - Good: 1-4, Bad Losses: 1
West Coast
Good Chance
(43) Saint Mary's (19-2) - Good: 3-1, Bad Losses: 1
(62) Gonzaga (17-4) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
(72) BYU (17-4) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 2
Others
Good Chance
(47) New Mexico State (17-3) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
(66) Louisiana (17-3) - Good: 0-1, Bad Losses: 2
(65) South Dakota State (17-5) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 3
(69) East Tennessee State (16-4) - Good: 0-2, Bad Losses: 2
(61) Loyola Chicago (16-4) - Good: 1-1, Bad Losses: 3
(33) Buffalo (14-5) - Good: 0-5, Bad Losses: 0
(75) Vermont (16-5) - Good: 0-3, Bad Losses: 2
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