This is a breakdown, by conference, of the teams that have a realistic chance at an at-large berth in the tournament, sorted by how likely they are to be selected as of today.
American
Definitely In
Houston (25-1, NET: 4)
Good Wins: @UCF, LSU, Cincinnati, Utah State
Bad Losses: None
Probably In
Cincinnati (22-4, NET: 25)
Good Wins: Ole Miss, @Temple, UCF
Bad Losses: @East Carolina
Good Chance
UCF (19-6, NET: 39)
Good Wins: Alabama, Temple
Bad Losses: FAU, @Missouri, @Wichita State
Still a Chance
Temple (19-7, NET: 56)
Good Wins: Houston
Bad Losses: Penn, @Tulsa
ACC
Definitely In
Virginia (23-2, NET: 2)
Good Wins: @North Carolina, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, @Virginia Tech, @Maryland, @NC State, Florida State, @Clemson, VCU
Bad Losses: None
North Carolina (21-5, NET: 9)
Good Wins: Gonzaga, @Duke, Virginia Tech, @Louisville, @Wofford, @NC State, NC State
Bad Losses: None
Duke (23-3, NET: 3)
Good Wins: Virginia, @Virginia, Kentucky, Texas Tech, @Louisville, Auburn, @Florida State, NC State, Clemson, St. John's, Indiana
Bad Losses: None
Probably In
Florida State (21-5, NET: 21)
Good Wins: Purdue, LSU, Louisville, @Syracuse, @Clemson, Florida, Clemson
Bad Losses: @Pittsburgh, @Boston College
Virginia Tech (20-6, NET: 13)
Good Wins: Purdue, @NC State, Washington, Syracuse,
Bad Losses: None
Louisville (18-9, NET: 19)
Good Wins: Michigan State, @North Carolina, @Virginia Tech, @Seton Hall, NC State, Clemson, Lipscomb
Bad Losses: @Pittsburgh
Should Be In
Syracuse (18-8, NET: 42)
Good Wins: @Duke, Louisville, @Ohio State, Clemson, Georgetown
Bad Losses: Old Dominion, Georgia Tech, UConn, Oregon
NC State (19-8, NET: 32)
Good Wins: Auburn, Syracuse, Clemson, Penn State
Bad Losses: @Wake Forest
Good Chance
Clemson (15-11, NET: 44)
Good Wins: Virginia Tech, Lipscomb
Bad Losses: @Miami
Big 12
Definitely In
Texas Tech (21-5, NET: 10)
Good Wins: @Texas, @Oklahoma, Kansas State, Nebraska, Baylor, Oklahoma, TCU
Bad Losses: None
Kansas (20-6, NET: 15)
Good Wins: Tennessee, Michigan State, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Marquette, @Baylor, Wofford, Villanova, @TCU, Texas, Oklahoma, TCU, New Mexico State
Bad Losses: @West Virginia
Probably In
Kansas State (20-6, NET: 28)
Good Wins: Texas Tech, @Iowa State, Kansas, @Baylor, @Texas, @Oklahoma, TCU
Bad Losses: @Texas A&M, @Tulsa
Iowa State (19-7, NET: 14)
Good Wins: @Texas Tech, Kansas, @Kansas State, @Ole Miss, @Oklahoma, Texas
Bad Losses: Arizona
Should Be In
Baylor (17-9, NET: 33)
Good Wins: Texas Tech, Iowa State, @Iowa State, @Oklahoma, Oklahoma, TCU, Alabama
Bad Losses: Texas Southern, Stephen F Austin, @Wichita State
Texas (15-11, NET: 35)
Good Wins: North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas, @Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma
Bad Losses: Radford, @Georgia, Providence, @Oklahoma State
Oklahoma (16-10, NET: 38)
Good Wins: Wofford, Florida, @TCU, TCU, Creighton
Bad Losses: @West Virginia
Good Chance
TCU (17-9, NET: 41)
Good Wins: @Iowa State, Florida, Baylor, Texas
Bad Losses: @Oklahoma State
Big East
Probably In
Marquette (22-4, NET: 18)
Good Wins: Wisconsin, Louisville, Buffalo, Villanova, Kansas State, @Butler, @Creighton, @Georgetown, Butler, Seton Hall
Bad Losses: None
Villanova (20-7, NET: 27)
Good Wins: Florida State, @Butler, @Creighton, St. John's, Temple, Creighton, Seton Hall, Georgetown
Bad Losses: @Penn
Good Chance
St. John's (19-8, NET: 49)
Good Wins: @Marquette, Marquette, Villanova, VCU, @Creighton, @Georgetown, Butler, Creighton
Bad Losses: DePaul, Providence
Seton Hall (16-10, NET: 64)
Good Wins: Kentucky, Maryland, @Creighton, St. John's, Butler, Creighton, Georgetown
Bad Losses: Xavier, DePaul, Saint Louis, @DePaul
Butler (15-12, NET: 50)
Good Wins: Florida, @Georgetown, Ole Miss, St. John's, Creighton, Seton Hall
Bad Losses: @Saint Louis, @Xavier, Dayton
Still a Chance
Georgetown (16-10, NET: 70)
Good Wins: Villanova, @St. John's, @Butler
Bad Losses: SMU, Loyola Marymount, @Xavier
Creighton (14-13, NET: 57)
Good Wins: Clemson, @Georgetown, Butler
Bad Losses: @Xavier
Big Ten
Definitely In
Michigan State (22-5, NET: 8)
Good Wins: Purdue, @Wisconsin, @Iowa, @Florida, Maryland, Iowa, Texas, @Ohio State, @Nebraska, @Penn State, Ohio State, Minnesota
Bad Losses: @Illinois
Purdue (19-7, NET: 11)
Good Wins: Michigan State, @Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa, @Ohio State, @Indiana, @Penn State, Nebraska, Minnesota, Belmont, Indiana, Penn State
Bad Losses: Notre Dame
Michigan (24-3, NET: 7)
Good Wins: North Carolina, Purdue, Wisconsin, @Villanova, Maryland, @Minnesota, @Indiana, Ohio State, Minnesota, Indiana
Bad Losses: None
Probably In
Maryland (20-7, NET: 23)
Good Wins: Purdue, Wisconsin, @Iowa, @Ohio State, @Nebraska, @Minnesota, Nebraska, Indiana, Penn State
Bad Losses: Illinois
Wisconsin (18-8, NET: 12)
Good Wins: Michigan, @Iowa, Maryland, Oklahoma, @Nebraska, @Minnesota, @Penn State, NC State
Bad Losses: @Western Kentucky
Iowa (21-6, NET: 30)
Good Wins: Michigan, Iowa State, @Indiana, @ Penn State, Ohio State, Nebraska, Indiana
Bad Losses: None
Should Be In
Ohio State (17-9, NET: 43)
Good Wins: @Cincinnati, @Nebraska, @Indiana, @Creighton, Minnesota, Penn State
Bad Losses: Illinois, @Rutgers
Good Chance
Minnesota (17-10, NET: 51)
Good Wins: @Wisconsin, Washington, Iowa, Nebraska, Indiana, Penn State
Bad Losses: @Boston College, @Illinois
Nebraska (15-12, NET: 46)
Good Wins: @Clemson, @Indiana, Minnesota, Creighton, Penn State, Seton Hall
Bad Losses: @Rutgers, @Illinois
Still a Chance
Indiana (13-14, NET: 54)
Good Wins: @Michigan State, Marquette, Louisville, Butler, @Penn State
Bad Losses: @Rutgers, @Northwestern
Penn State (10-16, NET: 60)
Good Wins: Michigan, Virginia Tech, Nebraska
Bad Losses: Rutgers, Bradley, @DePaul
MAC
Probably In
Buffalo (24-3, NET: 16)
Good Wins: @Syracuse, San Francisco, Toledo
Bad Losses: @Northern Illinois, @Bowling Green
Still a Chance
Toledo (20-6, NET: 65)
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: Ball State, @Kent State, @Wright State, @Eastern Michigan
MWC
Probably In
Nevada (24-2, NET: 22)
Good Wins: Utah State, Arizona State
Bad Losses: @New Mexico, @San Diego State
Good Chance
Utah State (21-6, NET: 36)
Good Wins: Saint Mary's
Bad Losses: Fresno State, @San Diego State, @BYU
Pac 12
Should Be In
Washington (21-5, NET: 29)
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Still a Chance
Arizona State (18-8, NET: 66)
Good Wins: Kansas, Mississippi State, Washington, Utah State
Bad Losses: Washington State, Princeton, Utah, @Vanderbilt, @Stanford, @USC
SEC
Definitely In
Tennessee (24-2, NET: 6)
Good Wins: Gonzaga, Louisville, @Florida, Florida, Alabama
Bad Losses: None
Kentucky (22-4, NET: 5)
Good Wins: Tennessee, North Carolina, Kansas, @Louisville, @Auburn, @Mississippi State, @Florida, Mississippi State
Bad Losses: None
Probably In
LSU (21-5, NET: 17)
Good Wins: @Kentucky, @Mississippi State, @Ole Miss, Auburn, Saint Mary's, Furman, Alabama
Bad Losses: Arkansas, Oklahoma State
Mississippi State (19-7, NET: 26)
Good Wins: @Ole Miss, Auburn, Wofford, Cincinnati, Saint Mary's, Clemson, Florida, Alabama
Bad Losses: @South Carolina
Auburn (18-8, NET: 20)
Good Wins: Washington, Florida, Alabama, Murray State
Bad Losses: @South Carolina
Should Be In
Ole Miss (18-8, NET: 34)
Good Wins: @Auburn, @Mississippi State, Auburn, Baylor
Bad Losses: South Carolina
Florida (15-11, NET: 31)
Good Wins: @LSU, @Alabama, Ole Miss, Butler
Bad Losses: South Carolina
Still a Chance
Alabama (15-11, NET: 53)
Good Wins: Kentucky, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Murray State, Penn State
Bad Losses: Georgia State, Texas A&M, Northeastern, @Texas A&M
Southern
Should Be In
Wofford (23-4, NET: 24)
Good Wins: Furman
Bad Losses: None
Still a Chance
Furman (22-5, NET: 45)
Good Wins: @Villanova
Bad Losses: Samford
West Coast
Definitely In
Gonzaga (26-2, NET: 1)
Good Wins: Duke, Washington, @San Francisco, @Creighton, Saint Mary's, San Francisco
Bad Losses: None
Good Chance
San Francisco (21-6, NET: 48)
Good Wins: Saint Mary's
Bad Losses: @UC Santa Barbara, @San Diego
Saint Mary's (18-10, NET: 40)
Good Wins: @New Mexico State, San Francisco
Bad Losses: UC Irvine, Harvard, @Pepperdine, @Western Kentucky, @BYU
Others
Good Chance
VCU (20-6, NET: 37)
Good Wins: @Texas, Temple
Bad Losses: Charleston, @Rhode Island, @Old Dominion
Still a Chance
New Mexico State (23-4, NET: 58)
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: Drake, @Cal Baptist
Belmont (22-4, NET: 52)
Good Wins: @Lipscomb, @Murray State, Lipscomb
Bad Losses: @Green Bay, @Jacksonville State, Jacksonville State
Murray State (22-4, NET: 59)
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: @Jacksonville State
Lipscomb (21-6, NET: 47)
Good Wins: @TCU
Bad Losses: @Florida Gulf Coast, @Liberty
Showing posts with label Tournament Watch. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tournament Watch. Show all posts
Saturday, February 23, 2019
Tuesday, February 27, 2018
NCAA Tournament Watch - 27 Feb
With less than 2 weeks to go until Selection Sunday, 10 more teams locked in their spots in March Madness this week, bringing the number up to 23, 9 of which are looking likely to win conference titles, leaving 22 open spots with 12 days left to go. Below you will find the teams that are still alive broken down by conference, with good record including games against others on this page, and bad losses coming against teams not on this page. Teams in bold saw their odds increase this week, while teams in italics fell:
American
Definitely In
Cincinnati (25-4) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 0
Wichita State (23-5) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 1
Houston (22-6) - Good: 6-2, Bad Losses: 4
Still a Chance
Temple (16-12) - Good: 3-6, Bad Losses: 3
Atlantic 10
Definitely In
Rhode Island (23-4) - Good: 3-4, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
St. Bonaventure (22-6) - Good: 4-2, Bad Losses: 4
ACC
Definitely In
Virginia (26-2) - Good: 11-2, Bad Losses: 0
Duke (24-6) - Good: 10-4, Bad Losses: 2
North Carolina (22-7) - Good: 11-6, Bad Losses: 1
Clemson (21-7) - Good: 8-7, Bad Losses: 0
Probably In
Virginia Tech (21-9) - Good: 6-8, Bad Losses: 1
Miami (20-8) - Good: 6-6, Bad Losses: 2
Should Be In
NC State (20-9) - Good: 8-7, Bad Losses: 2
Louisville (19-10) - Good: 4-10, Bad Losses: 0
Florida State (19-9) - Good: 7-6, Bad Losses: 3
Good Chance
Notre Dame (17-12) - Good: 4-9, Bad Losses: 3
Syracuse (18-11) - Good: 4-9, Bad Losses: 2
Big 12
Definitely In
Kansas (24-6) - Good: 15-5, Bad Losses: 1
West Virginia (22-8) - Good: 11-6, Bad Losses: 2
Texas Tech (22-8) - Good: 9-6, Bad Losses: 2
TCU (20-9) - Good: 6-8, Bad Losses: 1
Probably In
Oklahoma (17-11) - Good: 8-9, Bad Losses: 2
Should Be In
Kansas State (20-9) - Good: 5-8, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
Baylor (17-12) - Good: 5-11, Bad Losses: 1
Texas (17-13) - Good: 6-12, Bad Losses: 1
Big East
Definitely In
Xavier (25-4) - Good: 10-4, Bad Losses: 0
Villanova (25-4) - Good: 12-3, Bad Losses: 1
Probably In
Creighton (20-9) - Good: 6-9, Bad Losses: 0
Seton Hall (20-9) - Good: 6-7, Bad Losses: 2
Butler (19-10) - Good: 7-9, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
Providence (18-11) - Good: 5-8, Bad Losses: 3
Still a Chance
Marquette (17-12) - Good: 5-9, Bad Losses: 3
Big Ten
Definitely In
Michigan State (28-3) - Good: 7-3, Bad Losses: 0
Purdue (26-5) - Good: 10-4, Bad Losses: 1
Ohio State (24-7) - Good: 5-7, Bad Losses: 0
Michigan (24-7) - Good: 7-5, Bad Losses: 2
Good Chance
Nebraska (22-9) - Good: 3-6, Bad Losses: 3
Penn State (19-12) - Good: 4-7, Bad Losses: 5
Maryland (19-12) - Good: 2-11, Bad Losses: 1
Conference USA
Probably In
Middle Tennessee (23-5) - Good: 1-3, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
Western Kentucky (22-7) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 5
Mountain West
Probably In
Nevada (25-5) - Good: 3-2, Bad Losses: 3
Good Chance
Boise State (22-6) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 4
Pac 12
Definitely In
Arizona (22-7) - Good: 7-3, Bad Losses: 4
Should Be In
USC (21-9) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 4
Good Chance
Arizona State (19-9) - Good: 6-3, Bad Losses: 6
Still a Chance
Utah (18-10) - Good: 3-7, Bad Losses: 3
UCLA (19-10) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 5
Goodbye
Washington
SEC
Definitely In
Auburn (24-5) - Good: 7-4, Bad Losses: 1
Tennessee (21-7) - Good: 6-6, Bad Losses: 1
Kentucky (20-9) - Good: 9-8, Bad Losses: 1
Probably In
Arkansas (20-9) - Good: 5-7, Bad Losses: 2
Texas A&M (18-11) - Good: 7-9, Bad Losses: 2
Should Be In
Florida (18-11) - Good: 9-6, Bad Losses: 5
Good Chance
Mississippi State (21-8) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 2
Missouri (18-11) - Good: 5-8, Bad Losses: 3
Alabama (17-12) - Good: 7-7, Bad Losses: 5
Goodbye
LSU
Georgia
West Coast
Definitely In
Gonzaga (27-4) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 1
Probably In
Saint Mary's (27-4) - Good: 2-1, Bad Losses: 3
Others
Good Chance
Loyola-Chicago (25-5) - Good: 1-1, Bad Losses: 4
Louisiana (25-4) - Good: 0-1, Bad Losses: 3
Still a Chance
Vermont (24-6) - Good: 0-3, Bad Losses: 3
New Mexico State (24-5) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 3
Goodbye
Buffalo
East Tennessee State
American
Definitely In
Cincinnati (25-4) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 0
Wichita State (23-5) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 1
Houston (22-6) - Good: 6-2, Bad Losses: 4
Still a Chance
Temple (16-12) - Good: 3-6, Bad Losses: 3
Atlantic 10
Definitely In
Rhode Island (23-4) - Good: 3-4, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
St. Bonaventure (22-6) - Good: 4-2, Bad Losses: 4
ACC
Definitely In
Virginia (26-2) - Good: 11-2, Bad Losses: 0
Duke (24-6) - Good: 10-4, Bad Losses: 2
North Carolina (22-7) - Good: 11-6, Bad Losses: 1
Clemson (21-7) - Good: 8-7, Bad Losses: 0
Probably In
Virginia Tech (21-9) - Good: 6-8, Bad Losses: 1
Miami (20-8) - Good: 6-6, Bad Losses: 2
Should Be In
NC State (20-9) - Good: 8-7, Bad Losses: 2
Louisville (19-10) - Good: 4-10, Bad Losses: 0
Florida State (19-9) - Good: 7-6, Bad Losses: 3
Good Chance
Notre Dame (17-12) - Good: 4-9, Bad Losses: 3
Syracuse (18-11) - Good: 4-9, Bad Losses: 2
Big 12
Definitely In
Kansas (24-6) - Good: 15-5, Bad Losses: 1
West Virginia (22-8) - Good: 11-6, Bad Losses: 2
Texas Tech (22-8) - Good: 9-6, Bad Losses: 2
TCU (20-9) - Good: 6-8, Bad Losses: 1
Probably In
Oklahoma (17-11) - Good: 8-9, Bad Losses: 2
Should Be In
Kansas State (20-9) - Good: 5-8, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
Baylor (17-12) - Good: 5-11, Bad Losses: 1
Texas (17-13) - Good: 6-12, Bad Losses: 1
Big East
Definitely In
Xavier (25-4) - Good: 10-4, Bad Losses: 0
Villanova (25-4) - Good: 12-3, Bad Losses: 1
Probably In
Creighton (20-9) - Good: 6-9, Bad Losses: 0
Seton Hall (20-9) - Good: 6-7, Bad Losses: 2
Butler (19-10) - Good: 7-9, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
Providence (18-11) - Good: 5-8, Bad Losses: 3
Still a Chance
Marquette (17-12) - Good: 5-9, Bad Losses: 3
Big Ten
Definitely In
Michigan State (28-3) - Good: 7-3, Bad Losses: 0
Purdue (26-5) - Good: 10-4, Bad Losses: 1
Ohio State (24-7) - Good: 5-7, Bad Losses: 0
Michigan (24-7) - Good: 7-5, Bad Losses: 2
Good Chance
Nebraska (22-9) - Good: 3-6, Bad Losses: 3
Penn State (19-12) - Good: 4-7, Bad Losses: 5
Maryland (19-12) - Good: 2-11, Bad Losses: 1
Conference USA
Probably In
Middle Tennessee (23-5) - Good: 1-3, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
Western Kentucky (22-7) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 5
Mountain West
Probably In
Nevada (25-5) - Good: 3-2, Bad Losses: 3
Good Chance
Boise State (22-6) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 4
Pac 12
Definitely In
Arizona (22-7) - Good: 7-3, Bad Losses: 4
Should Be In
USC (21-9) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 4
Good Chance
Arizona State (19-9) - Good: 6-3, Bad Losses: 6
Still a Chance
Utah (18-10) - Good: 3-7, Bad Losses: 3
UCLA (19-10) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 5
Goodbye
Washington
SEC
Definitely In
Auburn (24-5) - Good: 7-4, Bad Losses: 1
Tennessee (21-7) - Good: 6-6, Bad Losses: 1
Kentucky (20-9) - Good: 9-8, Bad Losses: 1
Probably In
Arkansas (20-9) - Good: 5-7, Bad Losses: 2
Texas A&M (18-11) - Good: 7-9, Bad Losses: 2
Should Be In
Florida (18-11) - Good: 9-6, Bad Losses: 5
Good Chance
Mississippi State (21-8) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 2
Missouri (18-11) - Good: 5-8, Bad Losses: 3
Alabama (17-12) - Good: 7-7, Bad Losses: 5
Goodbye
LSU
Georgia
West Coast
Definitely In
Gonzaga (27-4) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 1
Probably In
Saint Mary's (27-4) - Good: 2-1, Bad Losses: 3
Others
Good Chance
Loyola-Chicago (25-5) - Good: 1-1, Bad Losses: 4
Louisiana (25-4) - Good: 0-1, Bad Losses: 3
Still a Chance
Vermont (24-6) - Good: 0-3, Bad Losses: 3
New Mexico State (24-5) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 3
Goodbye
Buffalo
East Tennessee State
Tuesday, February 20, 2018
NCAA Tournament Watch - 20 Feb
Last week it looked like several teams would lock in their spots in the tournament by today, but with many of those teams struggling this week, only one team added its name to the definite line. With the tournament starting 3 months from today, there are a ton of spots still open for the teams on this page. Teams in bold strengthened their status this week, teams in italics got weaker, good record includes games against other teams on this page, bad losses are against teams not on this page:
American
Definitely In
Cincinnati (23-4) - Good: 6-4, Bad Losses: 0
Wichita State (21-5) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 1
Probably In
Houston (21-5) - Good: 6-3, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
Temple (15-12) - Good: 4-7, Bad Losses: 5
Atlantic 10
Probably In
Rhode Island (22-4) - Good: 3-4, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
St. Bonaventure (20-6) - Good: 5-2, Bad Losses: 4
ACC
Definitely In
Virginia (24-2) - Good: 11-2, Bad Losses: 0
Duke (22-5) - Good: 8-3, Bad Losses: 2
North Carolina (21-7) - Good: 10-6, Bad Losses: 1
Clemson (20-6) - Good: 8-6, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
Virginia Tech (19-8) - Good: 5-7, Bad Losses: 1
Miami (19-8) - Good: 6-6, Bad Losses: 2
Florida State (19-8) - Good: 7-6, Bad Losses: 2
Good Chance
NC State (19-9) - Good: 7-7, Bad Losses: 2
Louisville (18-9) - Good: 3-9, Bad Losses: 0
Syracuse (18-9) - Good: 5-7, Bad Losses: 2
Notre Dame (16-12) - Good: 5-9, Bad Losses: 3
Goodbye
Boston College
Big 12
Definitely In
Kansas (22-6) - Good: 13-5, Bad Losses: 1
Texas Tech (22-5) - Good: 9-4, Bad Losses: 1
Probably In
West Virginia (20-8) - Good: 10-6, Bad Losses: 2
Should Be In
Kansas State (19-8) - Good: 5-7, Bad Losses: 1
Baylor (17-11) - Good: 5-10, Bad Losses: 1
TCU (18-9) - Good: 6-8, Bad Losses: 1
Oklahoma (16-11) - Good: 7-9, Bad Losses: 2
Good Chance
Texas (16-11) - Good: 6-10, Bad Losses: 1
Goodbye
Oklahoma State
Big East
Definitely In
Villanova (24-3) - Good: 12-2, Bad Losses: 1
Xavier (24-4) - Good: 11-4, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
Creighton (19-9) - Good: 5-9, Bad Losses: 0
Butler (19-10) - Good: 7-9, Bad Losses: 1
Seton Hall (18-9) - Good: 5-7, Bad Losses: 2
Good Chance
Providence (17-10) - Good: 6-7, Bad Losses: 3
Still a Chance
Marquette (15-11) - Good: 6-10, Bad Losses: 1
Goodbye
St. John's
Big Ten
Definitely In
Michigan State (27-3) - Good: 7-3, Bad Losses: 0
Purdue (24-5) - Good: 10-4, Bad Losses: 1
Probably In
Ohio State (23-7) - Good: 5-7, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
Michigan (22-7) - Good: 5-6, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
Penn State (19-10) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 5
Maryland (19-11) - Good: 2-10, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
Nebraska (20-9) - Good: 2-6, Bad Losses: 3
Goodbye
Northwestern
Conference USA
Should Be In
Middle Tennessee (22-5) - Good: 2-3, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
Old Dominion (21-5) - Good: 0-3, Bad Losses: 2
Western Kentucky (20-7) - Good: 2-2, Bad Losses: 5
Mountain West
Probably In
Nevada (23-5) - Good: 3-2, Bad Losses: 3
Still a Chance
Boise State (21-6) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 4
Pac 12
Should Be In
Arizona (21-6) - Good: 7-4, Bad Losses: 2
Arizona State (19-7) - Good: 6-4, Bad Losses: 3
Good Chance
USC (19-9) - Good: 3-6, Bad Losses: 3
Still a Chance
UCLA (19-8) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 4
Utah (17-9) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 3
Washington (18-9) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 3
Goodbye
Oregon
SEC
Definitely In
Auburn (23-4) - Good: 9-3, Bad Losses: 1
Probably In
Tennessee (19-7) - Good: 6-7, Bad Losses: 1
Should Be In
Missouri (18-9) - Good: 6-8, Bad Losses: 1
Arkansas (19-8) - Good: 5-8, Bad Losses: 0
Florida (17-10) - Good: 9-7, Bad Losses: 3
Kentucky (18-9) - Good: 10-8, Bad Losses: 1
Texas A&M (17-11) - Good: 8-11, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
Alabama (17-10) - Good: 9-6, Bad Losses: 4
Still a Chance
Mississippi State (20-8) - Good: 5-6, Bad Losses: 2
LSU (15-11) - Good: 7-9, Bad Losses: 2
Georgia (15-11) - Good: 8-7, Bad Losses: 4
West Coast
Probably In
Gonzaga (25-4) - Good: 5-3, Bad Losses: 1
Should Be In
Saint Mary's (25-4) - Good: 2-2, Bad Losses: 2
Goodbye
BYU
Others
Good Chance
Louisiana (23-4) - Good: 0-1, Bad Losses: 3
Still a Chance
Vermont (22-6) - Good: 0-3, Bad Losses: 3
Buffalo (20-8) - Good: 0-4, Bad Losses: 4
Loyola-Chicago (23-5) - Good: 1-1, Bad Losses: 4
East Tennessee State (23-6) - Good: 0-2, Bad Losses: 4
New Mexico State (22-5) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 3
Goodbye
Murray State
South Dakota State
Tuesday, February 13, 2018
NCAA Tournament Watch - 13 Feb
The number of teams that have cemented their place in March Madness doubled this week to 12, with 4 of those representing the ACC. 5 of them are projected conference champs, which leaves 29 open spots for the remaining teams on this page who are not conference champs. Teams whose status became stronger this week are in bold, and teams whose status weakened are in italics. Record against good teams includes games against other teams on this page, bad losses came against teams not on this page:
American
Definitely In
Cincinnati (23-2) - Good: 8-2, Bad Losses: 0
Probably In
Wichita State (19-5) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
Houston (19-5) - Good: 5-3, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
Temple (15-10) - Good: 6-4, Bad Losses: 6
SMU (15-10) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 4
Atlantic 10
Probably In
Rhode Island (20-3) - Good: 3-3, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
St. Bonaventure (19-6) - Good: 4-2, Bad Losses: 4
ACC
Definitely In
Virginia (23-2) - Good: 11-2, Bad Losses: 0
Clemson (20-4) - Good: 10-4, Bad Losses: 0
Duke (20-5) - Good: 6-5, Bad Losses: 0
North Carolina (20-7) - Good: 11-6, Bad Losses: 1
Should Be In
Miami (18-6) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 1
Louisville (18-8) - Good: 4-8, Bad Losses: 0
Virginia Tech (18-7) - Good: 7-6, Bad Losses: 1
Florida State (17-8) - Good: 6-7, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
Syracuse (17-8) - Good: 5-6, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
NC State (16-9) - Good: 6-7, Bad Losses: 2
Notre Dame (15-11) - Good: 6-8, Bad Losses: 3
Boston College (16-10) - Good: 3-10, Bad Losses: 0
Big 12
Definitely In
Texas Tech (22-4) - Good: 12-3, Bad Losses: 1
Kansas (20-6) - Good: 12-6, Bad Losses: 0
Probably In
West Virginia (19-7) - Good: 10-6, Bad Losses: 1
Should Be In
Oklahoma (16-9) - Good: 10-8, Bad Losses: 1
TCU (17-9) - Good: 7-8, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
Kansas State (17-8) - Good: 6-7, Bad Losses: 1
Baylor (16-10) - Good: 6-9, Bad Losses: 1
Texas (15-11) - Good: 6-11, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
Oklahoma State (15-10) - Good: 5-10, Bad Losses: 0
Big East
Definitely In
Villanova (23-2) - Good: 12-2, Bad Losses: 0
Xavier (23-3) - Good: 12-3, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
Creighton (18-7) - Good: 8-7, Bad Losses: 0
Butler (17-10) - Good: 6-9, Bad Losses: 1
Seton Hall (17-8) - Good: 6-6, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
Providence (16-9) - Good: 7-6, Bad Losses: 3
Marquette (14-11) - Good: 5-10, Bad Losses: 1
St. John's (13-13) - Good: 4-10, Bad Losses: 3
Big Ten
Definitely In
Purdue (23-4) - Good: 10-4, Bad Losses: 0
Michigan State (24-3) - Good: 7-3, Bad Losses: 0
Probably In
Ohio State (22-5) - Good: 6-5, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
Michigan (20-7) - Good: 5-7, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
Nebraska (20-8) - Good: 4-7, Bad Losses: 1
Penn State (18-9) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 4
Maryland (17-11) - Good: 4-10, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
Northwestern (15-11) - Good: 2-9, Bad Losses: 2
Conference USA
Should Be In
Middle Tennessee (20-5) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
Old Dominion (19-5) - Good: 0-3, Bad Losses: 2
Western Kentucky (18-7) - Good: 3-2, Bad Losses: 5
Mountain West
Should Be In
Nevada (21-5) - Good: 2-2, Bad Losses: 3
Good Chance
Boise State (20-5) - Good: 2-2, Bad Losses: 3
Pac 12
Should Be In
Arizona (20-6) - Good: 7-5, Bad Losses: 1
Arizona State (19-6) - Good: 7-4, Bad Losses: 2
Good Chance
USC (17-9) - Good: 4-7, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
UCLA (17-8) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 3
Washington (17-8) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 2
Utah (15-9) - Good: 5-7, Bad Losses: 2
Oregon (17-8) - Good: 3-5, Bad Losses: 3
SEC
Definitely In
Auburn (22-3) - Good: 7-3, Bad Losses: 0
Probably In
Tennessee (18-6) - Good: 6-6, Bad Losses: 0
Texas A&M (17-9) - Good: 9-9, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
Florida (17-8) - Good: 9-5, Bad Losses: 3
Missouri (18-8) - Good: 6-7, Bad Losses: 1
Kentucky (17-8) - Good: 8-7, Bad Losses: 1
Arkansas (18-8) - Good: 4-8, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
Alabama (16-9) - Good: 9-4, Bad Losses: 5
Still a Chance
Mississippi State (18-7) - Good: 3-6, Bad Losses: 1
LSU (14-10) - Good: 6-7, Bad Losses: 3
Goodbye
Georgia
South Carolina
West Coast
Probably In
Gonzaga (23-4) - Good: 6-3, Bad Losses: 1
Should Be In
Saint Mary's (24-3) - Good: 4-1, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
BYU (20-7) - Good: 1-4, Bad Losses: 3
Other
Good Chance
Vermont (21-5) - Good: 0-3, Bad Losses: 2
Louisiana (21-4) - Good: 0-1, Bad Losses: 3
New Mexico State (22-3) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
Buffalo (19-7) - Good: 0-5, Bad Losses: 2
Loyola-Chicago (21-5) - Good: 1-1, Bad Losses: 4
Murray State (20-5) - Good: 0-2, Bad Losses: 3
East Tennessee State (22-5) - Good: 0-2, Bad Losses: 3
South Dakota State (22-6) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 4
Goodbye
Belmont
American
Definitely In
Cincinnati (23-2) - Good: 8-2, Bad Losses: 0
Probably In
Wichita State (19-5) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
Houston (19-5) - Good: 5-3, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
Temple (15-10) - Good: 6-4, Bad Losses: 6
SMU (15-10) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 4
Atlantic 10
Probably In
Rhode Island (20-3) - Good: 3-3, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
St. Bonaventure (19-6) - Good: 4-2, Bad Losses: 4
ACC
Definitely In
Virginia (23-2) - Good: 11-2, Bad Losses: 0
Clemson (20-4) - Good: 10-4, Bad Losses: 0
Duke (20-5) - Good: 6-5, Bad Losses: 0
North Carolina (20-7) - Good: 11-6, Bad Losses: 1
Should Be In
Miami (18-6) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 1
Louisville (18-8) - Good: 4-8, Bad Losses: 0
Virginia Tech (18-7) - Good: 7-6, Bad Losses: 1
Florida State (17-8) - Good: 6-7, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
Syracuse (17-8) - Good: 5-6, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
NC State (16-9) - Good: 6-7, Bad Losses: 2
Notre Dame (15-11) - Good: 6-8, Bad Losses: 3
Boston College (16-10) - Good: 3-10, Bad Losses: 0
Big 12
Definitely In
Texas Tech (22-4) - Good: 12-3, Bad Losses: 1
Kansas (20-6) - Good: 12-6, Bad Losses: 0
Probably In
West Virginia (19-7) - Good: 10-6, Bad Losses: 1
Should Be In
Oklahoma (16-9) - Good: 10-8, Bad Losses: 1
TCU (17-9) - Good: 7-8, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
Kansas State (17-8) - Good: 6-7, Bad Losses: 1
Baylor (16-10) - Good: 6-9, Bad Losses: 1
Texas (15-11) - Good: 6-11, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
Oklahoma State (15-10) - Good: 5-10, Bad Losses: 0
Big East
Definitely In
Villanova (23-2) - Good: 12-2, Bad Losses: 0
Xavier (23-3) - Good: 12-3, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
Creighton (18-7) - Good: 8-7, Bad Losses: 0
Butler (17-10) - Good: 6-9, Bad Losses: 1
Seton Hall (17-8) - Good: 6-6, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
Providence (16-9) - Good: 7-6, Bad Losses: 3
Marquette (14-11) - Good: 5-10, Bad Losses: 1
St. John's (13-13) - Good: 4-10, Bad Losses: 3
Big Ten
Definitely In
Purdue (23-4) - Good: 10-4, Bad Losses: 0
Michigan State (24-3) - Good: 7-3, Bad Losses: 0
Probably In
Ohio State (22-5) - Good: 6-5, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
Michigan (20-7) - Good: 5-7, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
Nebraska (20-8) - Good: 4-7, Bad Losses: 1
Penn State (18-9) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 4
Maryland (17-11) - Good: 4-10, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
Northwestern (15-11) - Good: 2-9, Bad Losses: 2
Conference USA
Should Be In
Middle Tennessee (20-5) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
Old Dominion (19-5) - Good: 0-3, Bad Losses: 2
Western Kentucky (18-7) - Good: 3-2, Bad Losses: 5
Mountain West
Should Be In
Nevada (21-5) - Good: 2-2, Bad Losses: 3
Good Chance
Boise State (20-5) - Good: 2-2, Bad Losses: 3
Pac 12
Should Be In
Arizona (20-6) - Good: 7-5, Bad Losses: 1
Arizona State (19-6) - Good: 7-4, Bad Losses: 2
Good Chance
USC (17-9) - Good: 4-7, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
UCLA (17-8) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 3
Washington (17-8) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 2
Utah (15-9) - Good: 5-7, Bad Losses: 2
Oregon (17-8) - Good: 3-5, Bad Losses: 3
SEC
Definitely In
Auburn (22-3) - Good: 7-3, Bad Losses: 0
Probably In
Tennessee (18-6) - Good: 6-6, Bad Losses: 0
Texas A&M (17-9) - Good: 9-9, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
Florida (17-8) - Good: 9-5, Bad Losses: 3
Missouri (18-8) - Good: 6-7, Bad Losses: 1
Kentucky (17-8) - Good: 8-7, Bad Losses: 1
Arkansas (18-8) - Good: 4-8, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
Alabama (16-9) - Good: 9-4, Bad Losses: 5
Still a Chance
Mississippi State (18-7) - Good: 3-6, Bad Losses: 1
LSU (14-10) - Good: 6-7, Bad Losses: 3
Goodbye
Georgia
South Carolina
West Coast
Probably In
Gonzaga (23-4) - Good: 6-3, Bad Losses: 1
Should Be In
Saint Mary's (24-3) - Good: 4-1, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
BYU (20-7) - Good: 1-4, Bad Losses: 3
Other
Good Chance
Vermont (21-5) - Good: 0-3, Bad Losses: 2
Louisiana (21-4) - Good: 0-1, Bad Losses: 3
New Mexico State (22-3) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
Buffalo (19-7) - Good: 0-5, Bad Losses: 2
Loyola-Chicago (21-5) - Good: 1-1, Bad Losses: 4
Murray State (20-5) - Good: 0-2, Bad Losses: 3
East Tennessee State (22-5) - Good: 0-2, Bad Losses: 3
South Dakota State (22-6) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 4
Goodbye
Belmont
Tuesday, February 6, 2018
NCAA Tournament Watch - 6 Feb
2 more teams joined the ranks of teams whose tournament status is absolutely safe this week, bringing the total to 6, and since 3 of those teams will probably end up as conference champs, there are still 33 spots likely available for the other teams on this page that do not win their conference. Teams whose status has become more solid are in bold, and teams whose status got weaker are in italics.
American
Probably In
Cincinnati (21-2) - Good: 7-2, Bad Losses: 0
Should be In
Wichita State (17-5) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
Houston (17-5) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
SMU (15-8) - Good: 4-4, Bad Losses: 4
Temple (13-10) - Good: 6-5, Bad Losses: 5
Atlantic 10
Probably In
Rhode Island (19-3) - Good: 3-3, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
St. Bonaventure (16-6) - Good: 4-2, Bad Losses: 4
ACC
Definitely In
Virginia (22-1) - Good: 10-1, Bad Losses: 0
Duke (19-4) - Good: 6-3, Bad Losses: 1
Probably In
Clemson (19-4) - Good: 10-4, Bad Losses: 0
North Carolina (17-7) - Good: 7-6, Bad Losses: 1
Should Be In
Miami (17-5) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 1
Florida State (17-6) - Good: 6-5, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
NC State (16-7) - Good: 6-5, Bad Losses: 2
Louisville (16-8) - Good: 4-8, Bad Losses: 0
Virginia Tech (16-7) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 1
Syracuse (16-8) - Good: 5-6. Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
Boston College (14-9) - Good: 2-9, Bad Losses: 0
Notre Dame (13-10) - Good: 4-7, Bad Losses: 3
Big 12
Probably In
Kansas (18-5) - Good: 12-5, Bad Losses: 0
Texas Tech (19-4) - Good: 11-3, Bad Losses: 1
West Virginia (18-6) - Good: 9-5, Bad Losses: 1
Should Be In
Oklahoma (16-7) - Good: 9-7, Bad Losses: 0
TCU (16-7) - Good: 7-6, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
Texas (15-8) - Good: 6-8, Bad Losses: 0
Kansas State (16-7) - Good: 5-6, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
Oklahoma State (14-9) - Good: 4-9, Bad Losses: 0
Baylor (13-10) - Good: 3-9, Bad Losses: 1
Big East
Definitely In
Villanova (22-1) - Good: 10-1, Bad Losses: 0
Xavier (21-3) - Good: 8-3, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
Creighton (17-6) - Good: 6-6, Bad Losses: 0
Butler (17-7) - Good: 5-7, Bad Losses: 0
Seton Hall (17-6) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
Providence (15-8) - Good: 7-6, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
Marquette (13-10) - Good: 4-10, Bad Losses: 0
Big Ten
Definitely In
Purdue (23-2) - Good: 11-2, Bad Losses: 0
Michigan State (22-3) - Good: 6-3, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
Ohio State (20-5) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 0
Michigan (19-6) - Good: 5-6, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
Maryland (16-9) - Good: 2-8, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
Nebraska (17-8) - Good: 3-6, Bad Losses: 2
Penn State (16-9) - Good: 3-6, Bad Losses: 3
Northwestern (14-10) - Good: 1-8, Bad Losses: 2
Goodbye
Minnesota
Conference USA
Good Chance
Middle Tennessee (18-5) - Good: 3-4, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
Western Kentucky (16-7) - Good: 3-3, Bad Losses: 4
Old Dominion (17-5) - Good: 0-3, Bad Losses: 2
Mountain West
Should Be In
Nevada (20-4) - Good: 2-2, Bad Losses: 2
Good Chance
Boise State (19-4) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 2
Ohio Valley
Still a Chance
Belmont (19-6) - Good: 3-3, Bad Losses: 3
Murray State (18-5) - Good: 0-3, Bad Losses: 2
Pac 12
Should Be In
Arizona (19-5) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
USC (17-7) - Good: 3-5, Bad Losses: 2
Washington (17-6) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 1
Arizona State (17-6) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 3
Still a Chance
UCLA (16-7) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 4
Utah (13-9) - Good: 3-7, Bad Losses: 2
Goodbye
Oregon
SEC
Probably In
Auburn (21-2) - Good: 8-2, Bad Losses: 0
Tennessee (17-5) - Good: 6-5, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
Kentucky (17-6) - Good: 9-6, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
Florida (15-8) - Good: 8-7, Bad Losses: 1
Missouri (15-8) - Good: 5-7, Bad Losses: 1
Alabama (15-8) - Good: 9-4, Bad Losses: 4
Arkansas (16-8) - Good: 6-8, Bad Losses: 0
Texas A&M (15-8) - Good: 8-8, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
Mississippi State (17-6) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 1
LSU (13-9) - Good: 6-7, Bad Losses: 2
Georgia (13-9) - Good: 6-7, Bad Losses: 2
South Carolina (13-11) - Good: 3-9, Bad Losses: 2
West Coast
Should Be In
Saint Mary's (23-2) - Good: 4-1, Bad Losses: 1
Gonzaga (21-4) - Good: 5-3, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
BYU (18-7) - Good: 1-4, Bad Losses: 3
Others
Good Chance
New Mexico State (20-3) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 1
Louisiana (20-3) - Good: 0-1, Bad Losses: 2
Vermont (19-5) - Good: 0-3, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
South Dakota State (20-6) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 4
East Tennessee State (21-4) - Good: 0-2, Bad Losses: 2
Loyola-Chicago (19-5) - Good: 1-1, Bad Losses: 4
Buffalo (18-6) - Good: 0-5, Bad Losses: 1
American
Probably In
Cincinnati (21-2) - Good: 7-2, Bad Losses: 0
Should be In
Wichita State (17-5) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
Houston (17-5) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
SMU (15-8) - Good: 4-4, Bad Losses: 4
Temple (13-10) - Good: 6-5, Bad Losses: 5
Atlantic 10
Probably In
Rhode Island (19-3) - Good: 3-3, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
St. Bonaventure (16-6) - Good: 4-2, Bad Losses: 4
ACC
Definitely In
Virginia (22-1) - Good: 10-1, Bad Losses: 0
Duke (19-4) - Good: 6-3, Bad Losses: 1
Probably In
Clemson (19-4) - Good: 10-4, Bad Losses: 0
North Carolina (17-7) - Good: 7-6, Bad Losses: 1
Should Be In
Miami (17-5) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 1
Florida State (17-6) - Good: 6-5, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
NC State (16-7) - Good: 6-5, Bad Losses: 2
Louisville (16-8) - Good: 4-8, Bad Losses: 0
Virginia Tech (16-7) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 1
Syracuse (16-8) - Good: 5-6. Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
Boston College (14-9) - Good: 2-9, Bad Losses: 0
Notre Dame (13-10) - Good: 4-7, Bad Losses: 3
Big 12
Probably In
Kansas (18-5) - Good: 12-5, Bad Losses: 0
Texas Tech (19-4) - Good: 11-3, Bad Losses: 1
West Virginia (18-6) - Good: 9-5, Bad Losses: 1
Should Be In
Oklahoma (16-7) - Good: 9-7, Bad Losses: 0
TCU (16-7) - Good: 7-6, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
Texas (15-8) - Good: 6-8, Bad Losses: 0
Kansas State (16-7) - Good: 5-6, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
Oklahoma State (14-9) - Good: 4-9, Bad Losses: 0
Baylor (13-10) - Good: 3-9, Bad Losses: 1
Big East
Definitely In
Villanova (22-1) - Good: 10-1, Bad Losses: 0
Xavier (21-3) - Good: 8-3, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
Creighton (17-6) - Good: 6-6, Bad Losses: 0
Butler (17-7) - Good: 5-7, Bad Losses: 0
Seton Hall (17-6) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
Providence (15-8) - Good: 7-6, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
Marquette (13-10) - Good: 4-10, Bad Losses: 0
Big Ten
Definitely In
Purdue (23-2) - Good: 11-2, Bad Losses: 0
Michigan State (22-3) - Good: 6-3, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
Ohio State (20-5) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 0
Michigan (19-6) - Good: 5-6, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
Maryland (16-9) - Good: 2-8, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
Nebraska (17-8) - Good: 3-6, Bad Losses: 2
Penn State (16-9) - Good: 3-6, Bad Losses: 3
Northwestern (14-10) - Good: 1-8, Bad Losses: 2
Goodbye
Minnesota
Conference USA
Good Chance
Middle Tennessee (18-5) - Good: 3-4, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
Western Kentucky (16-7) - Good: 3-3, Bad Losses: 4
Old Dominion (17-5) - Good: 0-3, Bad Losses: 2
Mountain West
Should Be In
Nevada (20-4) - Good: 2-2, Bad Losses: 2
Good Chance
Boise State (19-4) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 2
Ohio Valley
Still a Chance
Belmont (19-6) - Good: 3-3, Bad Losses: 3
Murray State (18-5) - Good: 0-3, Bad Losses: 2
Pac 12
Should Be In
Arizona (19-5) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
USC (17-7) - Good: 3-5, Bad Losses: 2
Washington (17-6) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 1
Arizona State (17-6) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 3
Still a Chance
UCLA (16-7) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 4
Utah (13-9) - Good: 3-7, Bad Losses: 2
Goodbye
Oregon
SEC
Probably In
Auburn (21-2) - Good: 8-2, Bad Losses: 0
Tennessee (17-5) - Good: 6-5, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
Kentucky (17-6) - Good: 9-6, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
Florida (15-8) - Good: 8-7, Bad Losses: 1
Missouri (15-8) - Good: 5-7, Bad Losses: 1
Alabama (15-8) - Good: 9-4, Bad Losses: 4
Arkansas (16-8) - Good: 6-8, Bad Losses: 0
Texas A&M (15-8) - Good: 8-8, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
Mississippi State (17-6) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 1
LSU (13-9) - Good: 6-7, Bad Losses: 2
Georgia (13-9) - Good: 6-7, Bad Losses: 2
South Carolina (13-11) - Good: 3-9, Bad Losses: 2
West Coast
Should Be In
Saint Mary's (23-2) - Good: 4-1, Bad Losses: 1
Gonzaga (21-4) - Good: 5-3, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
BYU (18-7) - Good: 1-4, Bad Losses: 3
Others
Good Chance
New Mexico State (20-3) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 1
Louisiana (20-3) - Good: 0-1, Bad Losses: 2
Vermont (19-5) - Good: 0-3, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
South Dakota State (20-6) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 4
East Tennessee State (21-4) - Good: 0-2, Bad Losses: 2
Loyola-Chicago (19-5) - Good: 1-1, Bad Losses: 4
Buffalo (18-6) - Good: 0-5, Bad Losses: 1
Tuesday, January 30, 2018
NCAA Tournament Watch - 30 Jan
In last week's initial tournament watch, only Villanova was listed as a sure thing to make the tournament. This week, 3 other teams have joined the Wildcats in definite status, and those 4 happen to be the same 4 that I have had as projected #1 seeds for the past couple weeks. Here is this week's tournament breakdown by conference, with teams moving up in status in bold and falling teams in italics:
American
Should Be In
Cincinnati (19-2) - Good: 4-2, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
Wichita State (17-4) - Good: 4-4, Bad Losses: 0
Houston (16-4) - Good: 3-2, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
SMU (15-7) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 4
Goodbye
UCF
Atlantic 10
Good Chance
Rhode Island (17-3) - Good: 3-3, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
St. Bonaventure (14-6) - Good: 4-2, Bad Losses: 4
ACC
Definitely In
Virginia (20-1) - Good: 8-1, Bad Losses: 0
Duke (19-3) - Good: 6-3, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
Clemson (17-4) - Good: 9-3, Bad Losses: 1
North Carolina (16-6) - Good: 7-5, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
Louisville (16-5) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 0
Miami (15-5) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 1
Florida State (16-5) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 0
Virginia Tech (15-6) - Good: 3-5, Bad Losses: 1
Syracuse (15-6) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
NC State (15-7) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 2
Notre Dame (13-9) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 3
Boston College (13-8) - Good: 2-8, Bad Losses: 0
Big 12
Probably In
Kansas (18-4) - Good: 10-4, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
West Virginia (16-5) - Good: 7-5, Bad Losses: 0
Texas Tech (17-4) - Good: 8-3, Bad Losses: 1
Oklahoma (15-5) - Good: 8-5, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
Kansas State (16-6) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 1
Texas (14-7) - Good: 5-7, Bad Losses: 0
TCU (15-6) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
Oklahoma State (13-8) - Good: 3-8, Bad Losses: 0
Baylor (12-9) - Good: Good: 3-8, Bad Losses: 1
Goodbye
Iowa State
Big East
Definitely In
Villanova (20-1) - Good: 7-1, Bad Losses: 0
Probably In
Xavier (19-3) - Good: 8-3, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
Creighton (17-5) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 0
Seton Hall (16-5) - Good: 4-4, Bad Losses: 1
Butler (15-7) - Good: 4-7, Bad Losses: 0
Marquette (13-8) - Good: 4-8, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
Providence (14-7) - Good: 5-6, Bad Losses: 1
Big 10
Definitely In
Purdue (21-2) - Good: 6-2, Bad Losses: 0
Probably In
Michigan State (20-3) - Good: 5-3, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
Ohio State (18-5) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
Michigan (18-6) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
Nebraska (17-8) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 3
Maryland (15-8) - Good: 2-7, Bad Losses: 1
Minnesota (14-9) - Good: 2-6, Bad Losses: 3
Conference USA
Good Chance
Middle Tennessee (16-5) - Good: 1-3, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
Western Kentucky (15-6) - Good: 3-2, Bad Losses: 4
Old Dominion (16-4) - Good: 0-1, Bad Losses: 3
Mountain West
Good Chance
Nevada (18-4) - Good: 2-2, Bad Losses: 2
Boise State (18-4) - Good: 2-2, Bad Losses: 2
Pac 12
Should be In
Arizona (18-4) - Good: 6-3, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
USC (17-6) - Good: 4-4, Bad Losses: 2
Arizona State (16-5) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
Utah (13-8) - Good: 4-7, Bad Losses: 1
Washington (15-6) - Good: 2-5, Bad Losses: 1
Oregon (14-7) - Good: 2-5, Bad Losses: 2
UCLA (15-7) - Good: 3-4, Bad Losses: 3
SEC
Should Be In
Auburn (19-2) - Good: 7-1, Bad Losses: 1
Tennessee (15-5) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 0
Kentucky (16-5) - Good: 9-5, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
Florida (15-6) - Good: 8-5, Bad Losses: 1
Arkansas (15-6) - Good: 6-6, Bad Losses: 0
Alabama (14-7) - Good: 8-4, Bad Losses: 3
Texas A&M (13-8) - Good: 5-8, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
Missouri (13-8) - Good: 3-7, Bad Losses: 1
LSU (12-8) - Good: 5-6, Bad Losses: 2
South Carolina (13-8) - Good: 3-5, Bad Losses: 3
Mississippi State (15-6) - Good: 2-5, Bad Losses: 1
Georgia (12-8) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 2
West Coast
Good Chance
Saint Mary's (21-2) - Good: 4-1, Bad Losses: 1
Gonzaga (19-4) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
BYU (18-5) - Good: 1-3, Bad Losses: 2
Others
Still a Chance
Vermont (17-5) - Good: 0-3, Bad Losses: 2
Buffalo (16-6) - Good: 0-4, Bad Losses: 2
Loyola-Chicago (18-4) - Good: 1-1, Bad Losses: 3
East Tennessee State (19-4) - Good: 0-2, Bad Losses: 2
Louisiana (19-3) - Good: 0-1, Bad Losses: 2
New Mexico State (18-3) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 1
Goodbye
South Dakota State
American
Should Be In
Cincinnati (19-2) - Good: 4-2, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
Wichita State (17-4) - Good: 4-4, Bad Losses: 0
Houston (16-4) - Good: 3-2, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
SMU (15-7) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 4
Goodbye
UCF
Atlantic 10
Good Chance
Rhode Island (17-3) - Good: 3-3, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
St. Bonaventure (14-6) - Good: 4-2, Bad Losses: 4
ACC
Definitely In
Virginia (20-1) - Good: 8-1, Bad Losses: 0
Duke (19-3) - Good: 6-3, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
Clemson (17-4) - Good: 9-3, Bad Losses: 1
North Carolina (16-6) - Good: 7-5, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
Louisville (16-5) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 0
Miami (15-5) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 1
Florida State (16-5) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 0
Virginia Tech (15-6) - Good: 3-5, Bad Losses: 1
Syracuse (15-6) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
NC State (15-7) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 2
Notre Dame (13-9) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 3
Boston College (13-8) - Good: 2-8, Bad Losses: 0
Big 12
Probably In
Kansas (18-4) - Good: 10-4, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
West Virginia (16-5) - Good: 7-5, Bad Losses: 0
Texas Tech (17-4) - Good: 8-3, Bad Losses: 1
Oklahoma (15-5) - Good: 8-5, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
Kansas State (16-6) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 1
Texas (14-7) - Good: 5-7, Bad Losses: 0
TCU (15-6) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
Oklahoma State (13-8) - Good: 3-8, Bad Losses: 0
Baylor (12-9) - Good: Good: 3-8, Bad Losses: 1
Goodbye
Iowa State
Big East
Definitely In
Villanova (20-1) - Good: 7-1, Bad Losses: 0
Probably In
Xavier (19-3) - Good: 8-3, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
Creighton (17-5) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 0
Seton Hall (16-5) - Good: 4-4, Bad Losses: 1
Butler (15-7) - Good: 4-7, Bad Losses: 0
Marquette (13-8) - Good: 4-8, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
Providence (14-7) - Good: 5-6, Bad Losses: 1
Big 10
Definitely In
Purdue (21-2) - Good: 6-2, Bad Losses: 0
Probably In
Michigan State (20-3) - Good: 5-3, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
Ohio State (18-5) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
Michigan (18-6) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
Nebraska (17-8) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 3
Maryland (15-8) - Good: 2-7, Bad Losses: 1
Minnesota (14-9) - Good: 2-6, Bad Losses: 3
Conference USA
Good Chance
Middle Tennessee (16-5) - Good: 1-3, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
Western Kentucky (15-6) - Good: 3-2, Bad Losses: 4
Old Dominion (16-4) - Good: 0-1, Bad Losses: 3
Mountain West
Good Chance
Nevada (18-4) - Good: 2-2, Bad Losses: 2
Boise State (18-4) - Good: 2-2, Bad Losses: 2
Pac 12
Should be In
Arizona (18-4) - Good: 6-3, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
USC (17-6) - Good: 4-4, Bad Losses: 2
Arizona State (16-5) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 2
Still a Chance
Utah (13-8) - Good: 4-7, Bad Losses: 1
Washington (15-6) - Good: 2-5, Bad Losses: 1
Oregon (14-7) - Good: 2-5, Bad Losses: 2
UCLA (15-7) - Good: 3-4, Bad Losses: 3
SEC
Should Be In
Auburn (19-2) - Good: 7-1, Bad Losses: 1
Tennessee (15-5) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 0
Kentucky (16-5) - Good: 9-5, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
Florida (15-6) - Good: 8-5, Bad Losses: 1
Arkansas (15-6) - Good: 6-6, Bad Losses: 0
Alabama (14-7) - Good: 8-4, Bad Losses: 3
Texas A&M (13-8) - Good: 5-8, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
Missouri (13-8) - Good: 3-7, Bad Losses: 1
LSU (12-8) - Good: 5-6, Bad Losses: 2
South Carolina (13-8) - Good: 3-5, Bad Losses: 3
Mississippi State (15-6) - Good: 2-5, Bad Losses: 1
Georgia (12-8) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 2
West Coast
Good Chance
Saint Mary's (21-2) - Good: 4-1, Bad Losses: 1
Gonzaga (19-4) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
BYU (18-5) - Good: 1-3, Bad Losses: 2
Others
Still a Chance
Vermont (17-5) - Good: 0-3, Bad Losses: 2
Buffalo (16-6) - Good: 0-4, Bad Losses: 2
Loyola-Chicago (18-4) - Good: 1-1, Bad Losses: 3
East Tennessee State (19-4) - Good: 0-2, Bad Losses: 2
Louisiana (19-3) - Good: 0-1, Bad Losses: 2
New Mexico State (18-3) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 1
Goodbye
South Dakota State
Tuesday, January 23, 2018
NCAA Tournament Watch - 23 Jan
This is my first weekly breakdown of the teams that have a chance at being selected to play in the NCAA Tournament this March, with teams separated by conference and by how likely they are to make the tournament based on what they've done so far and what is left on their schedule. Record vs. good teams includes games against teams on this page, bad losses are against teams not on this page, RPI rank and record in parentheses.
American
Should Be In
(25) Cincinnati (17-2) - Good: 5-2, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
(27) Wichita State (15-4) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 0
(50) Houston (15-4) - Good: 3-2, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
(55) SMU (14-6) - Good: 5-3, Bad Losses: 3
(58) UCF (13-6) - Good: 2-4, Bad Losses: 2
Atlantic 10
Good Chance
(9) Rhode Island (15-3) - Good: 3-3, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
(51) St. Bonaventure (12-6) - Good: 4-2, Bad Losses: 4
ACC
Probably In
(4) Virginia (19-1) - Good: 7-1, Bad Losses: 0
(1) Duke (17-2) - Good: 5-2, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
(5) North Carolina (16-5) - Good: 7-4, Bad Losses: 1
(6) Clemson (16-3) - Good: 8-2, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
(13) Louisville (15-4) - Good: 4-4, Bad Losses: 0
(20) Miami (14-4) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 1
(38) Florida State (14-5) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
(59) Notre Dame (13-7) - Good: 4-4, Bad Losses: 3
(79) NC State (13-7) - Good: 3-5, Bad Losses: 2
(63) Boston College (13-7) - Good: 2-7, Bad Losses: 0
(41) Syracuse (13-6) - Good: 3-5, Bad Losses: 1
(77) Virginia Tech (14-6) - Good: 2-5, Bad Losses: 1
Big 12
Should Be In
(7) Kansas (16-3) - Good: 10-3, Bad Losses: 0
(21) West Virginia (16-4) - Good: 9-4, Bad Losses: 0
(22) Texas Tech (15-4) - Good: 6-4, Bad Losses: 0
(11) Oklahoma (14-4) - Good: 6-4, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
(53) Kansas State (15-5) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 1
(42) Texas (13-7) - Good: 6-7, Bad Losses: 0
(16) TCU (15-5) - Good: 6-5, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
(89) Baylor (12-8) - Good: 3-8, Bad Losses: 0
(83) Oklahoma State (13-6) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 0
(78) Iowa State (11-8) - Good: 3-7, Bad Losses: 1
Big East
Definitely In
(2) Villanova (18-1) - Good: 5-1, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
(3) Xavier (18-3) - Good: 7-3, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
(34) Creighton (15-5) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 0
(26) Butler (14-7) - Good: 4-7, Bad Losses: 0
(37) Providence (14-6) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 1
(19) Seton Hall (15-5) - Good: 4-4, Bad Losses: 1
(44) Marquette (13-6) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 0
Big Ten
Probably In
(10) Purdue (19-2) - Good: 8-2, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
(15) Ohio State (18-4) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 0
(29) Michigan State (18-3) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
(39) Michigan (17-5) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 0
(52) Maryland (15-7) - Good: 2-6, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
(64) Nebraska (14-8) - Good: 3-6, Bad Losses: 2
(74) Minnesota (14-8) - Good: 2-6, Bad Losses: 2
Conference USA
Still a Chance
(32) Middle Tennessee (14-5) - Good: 1-3, Bad Losses: 2
(46) Western Kentucky (14-6) - Good: 2-2, Bad Losses: 4
(95) Old Dominion (15-4) - Good: 0-1, Bad Losses: 3
Mountain West
Good Chance
(14) Nevada (18-3) - Good: 2-2, Bad Losses: 1
(35) Boise State (16-4) - Good: 1-3, Bad Losses: 1
Pac 12
Good Chance
(17) Arizona (16-4) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 1
(40) USC (15-6) - Good: 3-4, Bad Losses: 2
(31) Arizona State (15-4) - Good: 4-1, Bad Losses: 3
Still a Chance
(49) Washington (14-6) - Good: 2-5, Bad Losses: 1
(57) Utah (12-7) - Good: 2-6, Bad Losses: 1
(60) UCLA (13-7) - Good: 3-3, Bad Losses: 4
SEC
Should Be In
(8) Auburn (17-2) - Good: 5-1, Bad Losses: 1
(12) Tennessee (13-5) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
(23) Florida (14-5) - Good: 7-4, Bad Losses: 1
(18) Kentucky (14-5) - Good: 7-4, Bad Losses: 1
(36) Missouri (13-6) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 1
(24) Alabama (13-6) - Good: 6-5, Bad Losses: 1
(30) Arkansas (13-6) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 0
(28) Texas A&M (13-6) - Good: 5-6, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
(48) Georgia (12-6) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 3
(90) LSU (11-7) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 2
(68) Mississippi State (14-5) - Good: 1-4, Bad Losses: 1
West Coast
Good Chance
(43) Saint Mary's (19-2) - Good: 3-1, Bad Losses: 1
(62) Gonzaga (17-4) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
(72) BYU (17-4) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 2
Others
Good Chance
(47) New Mexico State (17-3) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
(66) Louisiana (17-3) - Good: 0-1, Bad Losses: 2
(65) South Dakota State (17-5) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 3
(69) East Tennessee State (16-4) - Good: 0-2, Bad Losses: 2
(61) Loyola Chicago (16-4) - Good: 1-1, Bad Losses: 3
(33) Buffalo (14-5) - Good: 0-5, Bad Losses: 0
(75) Vermont (16-5) - Good: 0-3, Bad Losses: 2
American
Should Be In
(25) Cincinnati (17-2) - Good: 5-2, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
(27) Wichita State (15-4) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 0
(50) Houston (15-4) - Good: 3-2, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
(55) SMU (14-6) - Good: 5-3, Bad Losses: 3
(58) UCF (13-6) - Good: 2-4, Bad Losses: 2
Atlantic 10
Good Chance
(9) Rhode Island (15-3) - Good: 3-3, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
(51) St. Bonaventure (12-6) - Good: 4-2, Bad Losses: 4
ACC
Probably In
(4) Virginia (19-1) - Good: 7-1, Bad Losses: 0
(1) Duke (17-2) - Good: 5-2, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
(5) North Carolina (16-5) - Good: 7-4, Bad Losses: 1
(6) Clemson (16-3) - Good: 8-2, Bad Losses: 1
Good Chance
(13) Louisville (15-4) - Good: 4-4, Bad Losses: 0
(20) Miami (14-4) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 1
(38) Florida State (14-5) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
(59) Notre Dame (13-7) - Good: 4-4, Bad Losses: 3
(79) NC State (13-7) - Good: 3-5, Bad Losses: 2
(63) Boston College (13-7) - Good: 2-7, Bad Losses: 0
(41) Syracuse (13-6) - Good: 3-5, Bad Losses: 1
(77) Virginia Tech (14-6) - Good: 2-5, Bad Losses: 1
Big 12
Should Be In
(7) Kansas (16-3) - Good: 10-3, Bad Losses: 0
(21) West Virginia (16-4) - Good: 9-4, Bad Losses: 0
(22) Texas Tech (15-4) - Good: 6-4, Bad Losses: 0
(11) Oklahoma (14-4) - Good: 6-4, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
(53) Kansas State (15-5) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 1
(42) Texas (13-7) - Good: 6-7, Bad Losses: 0
(16) TCU (15-5) - Good: 6-5, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
(89) Baylor (12-8) - Good: 3-8, Bad Losses: 0
(83) Oklahoma State (13-6) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 0
(78) Iowa State (11-8) - Good: 3-7, Bad Losses: 1
Big East
Definitely In
(2) Villanova (18-1) - Good: 5-1, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
(3) Xavier (18-3) - Good: 7-3, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
(34) Creighton (15-5) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 0
(26) Butler (14-7) - Good: 4-7, Bad Losses: 0
(37) Providence (14-6) - Good: 5-5, Bad Losses: 1
(19) Seton Hall (15-5) - Good: 4-4, Bad Losses: 1
(44) Marquette (13-6) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 0
Big Ten
Probably In
(10) Purdue (19-2) - Good: 8-2, Bad Losses: 0
Should Be In
(15) Ohio State (18-4) - Good: 5-4, Bad Losses: 0
(29) Michigan State (18-3) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
(39) Michigan (17-5) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 0
(52) Maryland (15-7) - Good: 2-6, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
(64) Nebraska (14-8) - Good: 3-6, Bad Losses: 2
(74) Minnesota (14-8) - Good: 2-6, Bad Losses: 2
Conference USA
Still a Chance
(32) Middle Tennessee (14-5) - Good: 1-3, Bad Losses: 2
(46) Western Kentucky (14-6) - Good: 2-2, Bad Losses: 4
(95) Old Dominion (15-4) - Good: 0-1, Bad Losses: 3
Mountain West
Good Chance
(14) Nevada (18-3) - Good: 2-2, Bad Losses: 1
(35) Boise State (16-4) - Good: 1-3, Bad Losses: 1
Pac 12
Good Chance
(17) Arizona (16-4) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 1
(40) USC (15-6) - Good: 3-4, Bad Losses: 2
(31) Arizona State (15-4) - Good: 4-1, Bad Losses: 3
Still a Chance
(49) Washington (14-6) - Good: 2-5, Bad Losses: 1
(57) Utah (12-7) - Good: 2-6, Bad Losses: 1
(60) UCLA (13-7) - Good: 3-3, Bad Losses: 4
SEC
Should Be In
(8) Auburn (17-2) - Good: 5-1, Bad Losses: 1
(12) Tennessee (13-5) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 0
Good Chance
(23) Florida (14-5) - Good: 7-4, Bad Losses: 1
(18) Kentucky (14-5) - Good: 7-4, Bad Losses: 1
(36) Missouri (13-6) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 1
(24) Alabama (13-6) - Good: 6-5, Bad Losses: 1
(30) Arkansas (13-6) - Good: 4-6, Bad Losses: 0
(28) Texas A&M (13-6) - Good: 5-6, Bad Losses: 0
Still a Chance
(48) Georgia (12-6) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 3
(90) LSU (11-7) - Good: 4-5, Bad Losses: 2
(68) Mississippi State (14-5) - Good: 1-4, Bad Losses: 1
West Coast
Good Chance
(43) Saint Mary's (19-2) - Good: 3-1, Bad Losses: 1
(62) Gonzaga (17-4) - Good: 4-3, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
(72) BYU (17-4) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 2
Others
Good Chance
(47) New Mexico State (17-3) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 1
Still a Chance
(66) Louisiana (17-3) - Good: 0-1, Bad Losses: 2
(65) South Dakota State (17-5) - Good: 1-2, Bad Losses: 3
(69) East Tennessee State (16-4) - Good: 0-2, Bad Losses: 2
(61) Loyola Chicago (16-4) - Good: 1-1, Bad Losses: 3
(33) Buffalo (14-5) - Good: 0-5, Bad Losses: 0
(75) Vermont (16-5) - Good: 0-3, Bad Losses: 2
Sunday, March 5, 2017
College Basketball Tournament Watch - 5 Mar
Other than a few games being played today, the regular season is over, and teams are now fighting to earn their conference's automatic berth, or at least get a couple more quality wins to help their case next week. Here is my current breakdown of tournament probability by conference, with teams that moved up or down in italics:
American
Definitely In
SMU
Good Wins: TCU, Houston, Cincinnati, @ Houston
Good Losses:vs Michigan, @ USC, @ Cincinnati
Bad Losses:@ Boise State
Cincinnati
Good Wins:@ Iowa State, @ Houston, SMU, Xavier, Houston
Good Losses:vs Rhode Island, @ Butler, @ SMU
Bad Losses:@ UCF
Good Chance
Houston
Good Wins:vs Vermont, Rhode Island
Good Losses:@ Arkansas, Cincinnati, @ SMU, SMU, @ Cincinnati
Bad Losses:@ LSU, Harvard, @ UCF, Memphis
Atlantic 10
Probably In
Dayton
Good Wins:East Tennessee State, Vanderbilt, Rhode Island, @ Rhode Island, VCU
Good Losses: Saint Mary's, vs Northwestern, @ VCU
Bad Losses:vs Nebraska, @ Massachusetts, @ George Washington
Solid Chance
VCU
Good Wins:Princeton, Middle Tennessee, Dayton
Good Losses:vs Baylor, vs Illinois, @ Rhode Island, @ Dayton
Bad Losses:Georgia Tech, @ Davidson, @ Fordham
Good Chance
Rhode Island
Good Wins:vs Cincinnati, VCU
Good Losses:vs Duke, @ Providence, @ Houston, @ Dayton, Dayton
Bad Losses:@ Valparaiso, La Salle, @ Richmond, Fordham
ACC
Definitely In
North Carolina
Good Wins:vs Oklahoma State, vs Wisconsin, Monmouth, @ Clemson, @ Wake Forest, Florida State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Virginia, Louisville, Duke
Good Losses:@ Indiana, vs Kentucky, @ Miami (FL), @ Duke, @ Virginia
Bad Losses:@ Georgia Tech
Louisville
Good Wins:vs Wichita State, Purdue, Kentucky, vs Indiana, Duke, Clemson, Miami (FL), @ Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Notre Dame
Good Losses:vs Baylor, Virginia, @ Notre Dame, @ Florida State, @ Virginia, @ North Carolina, @ Wake Forest
Bad Losses:None
Florida State
Good Wins:vs Illinois, Minnesota, Florida, Wake Forest, @ Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, @ Miami (FL), Clemson, @ Clemson, Miami (FL)
Good Losses:@ North Carolina, @ Syracuse, @ Notre Dame, @ Duke
Bad Losses:vs Temple, @ Georgia Tech, @ Pittsburgh
Notre Dame
Good Wins:vs Northwestern, Iowa, Louisville, Clemson, @ Miami (FL), @ Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Florida State
Good Losses:vs Villanova, vs Purdue, @ Florida State, Virginia, Duke, @ North Carolina, @ Louisville
Bad Losses:@ Georgia Tech
Duke
Good Wins:vs Rhode Island, Michigan State, vs Florida, Miami (FL), @ Wake Forest, @ Notre Dame, North Carolina, Clemson, @ Virginia, Wake Forest, Florida State
Good Losses:vs Kansas, @ Virginia Tech, @ Florida State, @ Louisville, @ Syracuse, @ Miami (FL), @ North Carolina
Bad Losses:NC State
Virginia
Good Wins:vs Iowa, vs Providence, Ohio State, @ California, @ Louisville, Wake Forest, @ Clemson, @ Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina
Good Losses:West Virginia, Florida State, @ Villanova, @ Syracuse, @ Virginia Tech, Duke, @ North Carolina, Miami (FL)
Bad Losses:@ Pittsburgh
Miami (FL)
Good Wins:North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Clemson, @ Virginia, Duke
Good Losses:vs Iowa State, vs Florida, @ Syracuse, Notre Dame, @ Wake Forest, @ Duke, Florida State, @ Louisville, @ Virginia Tech, @ Florida State
Bad Losses:None
Wake Forest
Good Wins: Bucknell, Miami (FL), Louisville, @ Virginia Tech
Good Losses:vs Villanova, @ Northwestern, @ Xavier, @ Florida State, Clemson, @ Virginia, North Carolina, @ Syracuse, Duke, @ Notre Dame, @ Clemson, @ Duke
Bad Losses:None
Solid Chance
Clemson
Good Wins:Georgia, @ South Carolina, UNC Wilmington, @ Wake Forest, Wake Forest
Good Losses:vs Xavier, North Carolina, @ Notre Dame, Virginia, @ Louisville, Virginia Tech, @ Florida State, Syracuse, @ Duke, @ Miami (FL), @ Virginia Tech, Florida State
Bad Losses:vs Oklahoma, @ Georgia Tech
Good Chance
Virginia Tech
Good Wins:@ Michigan, Duke, Syracuse, @ Clemson, Virginia, Clemson, Miami (FL)
Good Losses:vs Texas A&M, @ Florida State, Notre Dame, @ North Carolina, @ Virginia, @ Miami (FL), @ Louisville, Wake Forest
Bad Losses:@ NC State
Syracuse
Good Wins:Monmouth, Miami (FL), Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia, @ Clemson, Duke
Good Losses:vs South Carolina, @ Wisconsin, @ Virginia Tech, @ North Carolina, @ Notre Dame, Louisville, @ Louisville
Bad Losses:vs Connecticut, Georgetown, St. John's, @ Boston College, @ Pittsburgh, @ Georgia Tech
Big 12
Definitely In
Kansas
Good Wins:vs Duke, vs Georgia, @ TCU, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, @ Iowa State, @ Kentucky, Baylor, @ Kansas State, @ Texas Tech, West Virginia, @ Baylor, TCU, @ Oklahoma State
Good Losses:vs Indiana, @ West Virginia, Iowa State
Bad Losses:None
West Virginia
Good Wins:vs Illinois, @ Virginia, @ Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M, @ Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, @ TCU, Iowa State
Good Losses:@ Texas Tech, @ Kansas State, Oklahoma State, @ Kansas, @ Baylor
Bad Losses:vs Temple, Oklahoma
Iowa State
Good Wins:vs Miami (FL), Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma State, Kansas State, @ Kansas, @ Kansas State, TCU, @ Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma State
Good Losses:vs Gonzaga, Cincinnati, @ Iowa, @ Baylor, @ TCU, Kansas, @ Vanderbilt, West Virginia, @ West Virginia
Bad Losses:@ Texas
Baylor
Good Wins:Oregon, vs VCU, vs Michigan State, vs Louisville, Xavier, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, @ Kansas State, @ TCU, Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma State, TCU, West Virginia
Good Losses:@ West Virginia, @ Kansas, Kansas State, @ Texas Tech, Kansas, @ Iowa State
Bad Losses:None
Oklahoma State
Good Wins:@ Wichita State, West Virginia, @ Texas Tech, TCU, Arkansas, @ West Virginia, @ TCU, @ Kansas State, Texas Tech
Good Losses:vs North Carolina, @ Maryland, @ Baylor, Iowa State, @ Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, @ Iowa State, Kansas
Bad Losses:@ Texas
Probably In
Kansas State
Good Wins:@ Oklahoma State, West Virginia, @ Iowa State, @ Baylor, @ TCU, Texas Tech
Good Losses:vs Maryland, @ Kansas, @ Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Kansas, @ West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma State
Bad Losses:@ Tennessee, @ Oklahoma
Still a Chance
TCU
Good Wins:Illinois State, Iowa State, @ Kansas State, Texas Tech
Good Losses:@ SMU, Kansas, @ West Virginia, @ Texas Tech, Baylor, @ Oklahoma State, @ Baylor, Oklahoma State, @ Iowa State, @ Kansas, West Virginia, Kansas State
Bad Losses:Auburn, @ Oklahoma
Texas Tech
Good Wins:West Virginia, Kansas State, TCU, Baylor
Good Losses:@ Iowa State, @ Kansas, Oklahoma State, @ Baylor, @ TCU, Kansas, @ West Virginia, Iowa State, @ Oklahoma State, @ Kansas State
Bad Losses:vs Auburn, @ Oklahoma, @ Texas
Big East
Definitely In
Villanova
Good Wins:@ Purdue, vs Wake Forest, vs Notre Dame, @ Creighton, Marquette, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence, Virginia, @ Providence, @ Xavier, @ Seton Hall, Creighton
Good Losses:@ Butler, @ Marquette, Butler
Bad Losses:None
Butler
Good Wins:Northwestern, Bucknell, vs Vanderbilt, vs Arizona, @ Utah, Cincinnati, vs Indiana, Vermont, Providence, Villanova, Xavier, Marquette, @ Seton Hall, @ Marquette, @ Villanova, @ Xavier
Good Losses:@ Creighton, Creighton, @ Providence, Seton Hall
Bad Losses:@ Indiana State, @ St. John's, Georgetown
Creighton
Good Wins:Wisconsin, Seton Hall, @ Providence, Butler, @ Xavier, @ Butler
Good Losses: Villanova, Marquette, Xavier, @ Seton Hall, Providence, @ Villanova, @ Marquette
Bad Losses:@ Georgetown
Probably In
Marquette
Good Wins:vs Vanderbilt, @ Georgia, Seton Hall, @ Creighton, Villanova, Xavier, @ Xavier, Creighton
Good Losses:vs Michigan, Wisconsin, @ Seton Hall, @ Villanova, @ Butler, Providence, Butler, @ Providence
Bad Losses:vs Pittsburgh, @ St. John's, @ Georgetown
Good Chance
Xavier
Good Wins:vs Clemson, Utah, Wake Forest, Providence, Seton Hall, @ Creighton
Good Losses:@ Baylor, @ Villanova, @ Butler, Creighton, @ Cincinnati, Villanova, @ Providence, @ Marquette, @ Seton Hall, Butler, Marquette
Bad Losses:@ Colorado
Still a Chance
Providence
Good Wins:Vermont, Rhode Island, Seton Hall, @ Marquette, Butler, Xavier, @ Creighton, Marquette
Good Losses:@ Ohio State, vs Virginia, @ Xavier, @ Butler, Creighton, @ Villanova, Villanova, @ Seton Hall
Bad Losses:@ Boston College, @ DePaul, St. John's
Seton Hall
Good Wins:@ Iowa, vs California, vs South Carolina, Marquette, Providence, Creighton, Xavier, @ Butler
Good Losses:vs Florida, @ Creighton, @ Marquette, @ Providence, @ Villanova, Butler, @ Xavier, Villanova
Bad Losses:vs Stanford, @ St. John's
Big Ten
Definitely In
Purdue
Good Wins:vs Notre Dame, Iowa, @ Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, @ Michigan State, Northwestern, @ Maryland, @ Indiana, Michigan State, Indiana
Good Losses: Villanova, @ Louisville, Minnesota, @ Iowa, @ Nebraska, @ Michigan
Bad Losses:None
Wisconsin
Good Wins:Syracuse, @ Marquette, @ Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan, @ Minnesota, @ Illinois, Indiana, Maryland
Good Losses:@ Creighton, vs North Carolina, @ Purdue, Northwestern, @ Michigan, @ Ohio State, @ Michigan State, Iowa
Bad Losses:None
Minnesota
Good Wins:UT Arlington, Arkansas, vs Vanderbilt, @ Purdue, @ Northwestern, Ohio State, @ Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, @ Maryland
Good Losses:@ Florida State, Michigan State, @ Michigan State, Wisconsin, @ Ohio State, Maryland
Bad Losses:@ Penn State
Michigan
Good Wins:vs Marquette, vs SMU, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan State, @ Indiana, Wisconsin, Purdue
Good Losses:@ South Carolina, Virginia Tech, @ UCLA, @ Iowa, Maryland, @ Illinois, @ Wisconsin, @ Michigan State, Ohio State, @ Minnesota, @ Northwestern
Bad Losses:None
Solid Chance
Maryland
Good Wins:vs Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Illinois, @ Michigan, Indiana, @ Illinois, @ Iowa, @ Minnesota, @ Ohio State, Ohio State, @ Northwestern, Michigan State
Good Losses:Purdue, @ Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa
Bad Losses:Pittsburgh, Nebraska, @ Penn State
Northwestern
Good Wins:Wake Forest, vs Dayton, Iowa, @ Ohio State, Indiana, @ Wisconsin, Michigan
Good Losses:@ Butler, vs Notre Dame, @ Michigan State, Minnesota, @ Purdue, Illinois, Maryland, @ Illinois, @ Indiana
Bad Losses:None
Indiana
Good Wins:vs Kansas, North Carolina, Illinois, Michigan State, Northwestern, @ Ohio State
Good Losses:vs Butler, vs Louisville, Wisconsin, @ Maryland, @ Michigan, @ Northwestern, @ Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan, @ Minnesota, @ Iowa, @ Purdue
Bad Losses:@ Fort Wayne, Nebraska
Still a Chance
Michigan State
Good Wins:vs Wichita State, @ Minnesota, Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Good Losses:vs Arizona, vs Kentucky, vs Baylor, @ Duke, @ Ohio State, @ Indiana, Purdue, @ Michigan, @ Purdue, @ Illinois, @ Maryland
Bad Losses:Northeastern, vs Penn State
Iowa
Good Wins:Iowa State, Michigan, Purdue, Ohio State, Indiana, @ Maryland, @ Wisconsin
Good Losses:Seton Hall, vs Virginia, @ Notre Dame, @ Purdue, @ Northwestern, Maryland, @ Illinois, @ Minnesota, @ Michigan State, Illinois
Bad Losses:vs Memphis, Omaha, @ Nebraska
Illinois
Good Wins:vs VCU, vs BYU, Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, @ Northwestern, @ Iowa, Northwestern, Michigan State
Good Losses:vs West Virginia, vs Florida State, @ Maryland, @ Indiana, Maryland, @ Purdue, @ Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota
Bad Losses:Winthrop, @ Penn State, Penn State, @ Rutgers
Ohio State
Good Wins:Providence, Michigan State, Minnesota, @ Michigan, Wisconsin
Good Losses:@ Virginia, vs UCLA, @ Illinois, Purdue, @ Minnesota, @ Wisconsin, Northwestern, @ Iowa, Maryland, @ Maryland, @ Michigan State, Indiana
Bad Losses: FAU, Nebraska
Missouri Valley
Definitely In
Wichita State
Good Wins:Illinois State
Good Losses:vs Louisville, vs Michigan State, Oklahoma State, @ Illinois State
Bad Losses:None
Still a Chance
Illinois State
Good Wins:Wichita State
Good Losses:@ TCU, @ Wichita State
Bad Losses:@ Murray State, @ Tulsa, vs San Francisco
Pac 12
Definitely In
Oregon
Good Wins:UCLA, USC, California, @ Utah, Arizona, @ USC, Utah, @ California
Good Losses:@ Baylor, @ UCLA
Bad Losses:vs Georgetown, @ Colorado
Arizona
Good Wins:vs Michigan State, vs Texas A&M, @ California, Utah, @ USC, @ UCLA, California, USC
Good Losses:vs Butler, vs Gonzaga, @ Oregon, UCLA
Bad Losses:None
UCLA
Good Wins:vs Texas A&M, @ Kentucky, Michigan, vs Ohio State, California, @ Utah, Oregon, USC, @ Arizona
Good Losses:@ Oregon, Arizona, @ USC
Bad Losses:None
Still a Chance
Utah
Good Wins: USC, California
Good Losses:Butler, @ Xavier, @ Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, @ California, @ Oregon
Bad Losses:vs San Francisco, @ Stanford, @ Oregon State
California
Good Wins:vs Princeton, @ USC, Utah
Good Losses:vs Seton Hall, Virginia, Arizona, @ UCLA, @ Oregon, @ Arizona, Oregon, @ Utah
Bad Losses:vs San Diego State, @ Stanford, @ Colorado
USC
Good Wins:@ Texas A&M, SMU, vs BYU, UCLA
Good Losses:@ Oregon, California, @ Utah, Arizona, Oregon, @ UCLA, @ Arizona
Bad Losses:@ Arizona State
SEC
Definitely In
Kentucky
Good Wins:vs Michigan State, vs North Carolina, Texas A&M, Arkansas, @ Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Georgia, @ Georgia, Florida, Vanderbilt, @ Texas A&M
Good Losses:UCLA, @ Louisville, Kansas, @ Florida
Bad Losses:@ Tennessee
Florida
Good Wins:vs Seton Hall, vs Miami (FL), @ Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, @ Georgia, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Arkansas
Good Losses:vs Gonzaga, vs Duke, @ Florida State, @ South Carolina, Vanderbilt, @ Kentucky, @ Vanderbilt
Bad Losses:None
Probably In
South Carolina
Good Wins:Monmouth, Michigan, vs Syracuse, Vermont, @ Georgia, Texas A&M, Florida, Georgia
Good Losses:vs Seton Hall, Clemson, @ Kentucky, Arkansas, @ Vanderbilt, @ Florida
Bad Losses:@ Memphis, Alabama, @ Ole Miss
Arkansas
Good Wins:UT Arlington, Houston, @ Texas A&M, @ Vanderbilt, @ South Carolina, Texas A&M, Georgia
Good Losses:@ Minnesota, Florida, @ Kentucky, @ Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt, @ Florida
Bad Losses:Mississippi State, @ Missouri
Solid Chance
Vanderbilt
Good Wins:@ Florida, Iowa State, @ Texas A&M, @ Arkansas, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Florida
Good Losses:vs Marquette, Bucknell, vs Butler, vs Minnesota, @ Middle Tennessee, @ Dayton, Kentucky, @ Georgia, Arkansas, @ Kentucky
Bad Losses:@ Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss, @ Missouri
Still a Chance
Georgia
Good Wins:Vanderbilt
Good Losses:@ Clemson, vs Kansas, Marquette, South Carolina, @ Florida, @ Texas A&M, @ Kentucky, @ South Carolina, Florida, Kentucky, @ Arkansas
Bad Losses:@ Oakland, Alabama
Texas A&M
Good Wins:vs Virginia Tech, Georgia
Good Losses: USC, vs UCLA, vs Arizona, @ Kentucky, @ South Carolina, Arkansas, @ West Virginia, Vanderbilt, @ Florida, @ Vanderbilt, @ Arkansas, Kentucky
Bad Losses:vs Tennessee, @ Mississippi State
West Coast
Definitely In
Gonzaga
Good Wins:vs Florida, vs Iowa State, vs Arizona, Saint Mary's, @ BYU, @ Saint Mary's
Good Losses: BYU
Bad Losses:None
Saint Mary's
Good Wins:Nevada, @ Dayton, BYU, @ BYU,
Good Losses:UT Arlington, @ Gonzaga, Gonzaga
Bad Losses:None
Still a Chance
BYU
Good Wins:Princeton, @ Gonzaga
Good Losses:vs USC, vs Illinois, @ Saint Mary's, Gonzaga, Saint Mary's
Bad Losses:vs Valparaiso, Utah Valley, @ San Diego, @ Santa Clara, @ Pepperdine
American
Definitely In
SMU
Good Wins: TCU, Houston, Cincinnati, @ Houston
Good Losses:vs Michigan, @ USC, @ Cincinnati
Bad Losses:@ Boise State
Cincinnati
Good Wins:@ Iowa State, @ Houston, SMU, Xavier, Houston
Good Losses:vs Rhode Island, @ Butler, @ SMU
Bad Losses:@ UCF
Good Chance
Houston
Good Wins:vs Vermont, Rhode Island
Good Losses:@ Arkansas, Cincinnati, @ SMU, SMU, @ Cincinnati
Bad Losses:@ LSU, Harvard, @ UCF, Memphis
Atlantic 10
Probably In
Dayton
Good Wins:East Tennessee State, Vanderbilt, Rhode Island, @ Rhode Island, VCU
Good Losses: Saint Mary's, vs Northwestern, @ VCU
Bad Losses:vs Nebraska, @ Massachusetts, @ George Washington
Solid Chance
VCU
Good Wins:Princeton, Middle Tennessee, Dayton
Good Losses:vs Baylor, vs Illinois, @ Rhode Island, @ Dayton
Bad Losses:Georgia Tech, @ Davidson, @ Fordham
Good Chance
Rhode Island
Good Wins:vs Cincinnati, VCU
Good Losses:vs Duke, @ Providence, @ Houston, @ Dayton, Dayton
Bad Losses:@ Valparaiso, La Salle, @ Richmond, Fordham
ACC
Definitely In
North Carolina
Good Wins:vs Oklahoma State, vs Wisconsin, Monmouth, @ Clemson, @ Wake Forest, Florida State, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Virginia, Louisville, Duke
Good Losses:@ Indiana, vs Kentucky, @ Miami (FL), @ Duke, @ Virginia
Bad Losses:@ Georgia Tech
Louisville
Good Wins:vs Wichita State, Purdue, Kentucky, vs Indiana, Duke, Clemson, Miami (FL), @ Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Notre Dame
Good Losses:vs Baylor, Virginia, @ Notre Dame, @ Florida State, @ Virginia, @ North Carolina, @ Wake Forest
Bad Losses:None
Florida State
Good Wins:vs Illinois, Minnesota, Florida, Wake Forest, @ Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, @ Miami (FL), Clemson, @ Clemson, Miami (FL)
Good Losses:@ North Carolina, @ Syracuse, @ Notre Dame, @ Duke
Bad Losses:vs Temple, @ Georgia Tech, @ Pittsburgh
Notre Dame
Good Wins:vs Northwestern, Iowa, Louisville, Clemson, @ Miami (FL), @ Virginia Tech, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Florida State
Good Losses:vs Villanova, vs Purdue, @ Florida State, Virginia, Duke, @ North Carolina, @ Louisville
Bad Losses:@ Georgia Tech
Duke
Good Wins:vs Rhode Island, Michigan State, vs Florida, Miami (FL), @ Wake Forest, @ Notre Dame, North Carolina, Clemson, @ Virginia, Wake Forest, Florida State
Good Losses:vs Kansas, @ Virginia Tech, @ Florida State, @ Louisville, @ Syracuse, @ Miami (FL), @ North Carolina
Bad Losses:NC State
Virginia
Good Wins:vs Iowa, vs Providence, Ohio State, @ California, @ Louisville, Wake Forest, @ Clemson, @ Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina
Good Losses:West Virginia, Florida State, @ Villanova, @ Syracuse, @ Virginia Tech, Duke, @ North Carolina, Miami (FL)
Bad Losses:@ Pittsburgh
Miami (FL)
Good Wins:North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Clemson, @ Virginia, Duke
Good Losses:vs Iowa State, vs Florida, @ Syracuse, Notre Dame, @ Wake Forest, @ Duke, Florida State, @ Louisville, @ Virginia Tech, @ Florida State
Bad Losses:None
Wake Forest
Good Wins: Bucknell, Miami (FL), Louisville, @ Virginia Tech
Good Losses:vs Villanova, @ Northwestern, @ Xavier, @ Florida State, Clemson, @ Virginia, North Carolina, @ Syracuse, Duke, @ Notre Dame, @ Clemson, @ Duke
Bad Losses:None
Solid Chance
Clemson
Good Wins:Georgia, @ South Carolina, UNC Wilmington, @ Wake Forest, Wake Forest
Good Losses:vs Xavier, North Carolina, @ Notre Dame, Virginia, @ Louisville, Virginia Tech, @ Florida State, Syracuse, @ Duke, @ Miami (FL), @ Virginia Tech, Florida State
Bad Losses:vs Oklahoma, @ Georgia Tech
Good Chance
Virginia Tech
Good Wins:@ Michigan, Duke, Syracuse, @ Clemson, Virginia, Clemson, Miami (FL)
Good Losses:vs Texas A&M, @ Florida State, Notre Dame, @ North Carolina, @ Virginia, @ Miami (FL), @ Louisville, Wake Forest
Bad Losses:@ NC State
Syracuse
Good Wins:Monmouth, Miami (FL), Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia, @ Clemson, Duke
Good Losses:vs South Carolina, @ Wisconsin, @ Virginia Tech, @ North Carolina, @ Notre Dame, Louisville, @ Louisville
Bad Losses:vs Connecticut, Georgetown, St. John's, @ Boston College, @ Pittsburgh, @ Georgia Tech
Big 12
Definitely In
Kansas
Good Wins:vs Duke, vs Georgia, @ TCU, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, @ Iowa State, @ Kentucky, Baylor, @ Kansas State, @ Texas Tech, West Virginia, @ Baylor, TCU, @ Oklahoma State
Good Losses:vs Indiana, @ West Virginia, Iowa State
Bad Losses:None
West Virginia
Good Wins:vs Illinois, @ Virginia, @ Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, Kansas, Texas A&M, @ Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, @ TCU, Iowa State
Good Losses:@ Texas Tech, @ Kansas State, Oklahoma State, @ Kansas, @ Baylor
Bad Losses:vs Temple, Oklahoma
Iowa State
Good Wins:vs Miami (FL), Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma State, Kansas State, @ Kansas, @ Kansas State, TCU, @ Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma State
Good Losses:vs Gonzaga, Cincinnati, @ Iowa, @ Baylor, @ TCU, Kansas, @ Vanderbilt, West Virginia, @ West Virginia
Bad Losses:@ Texas
Baylor
Good Wins:Oregon, vs VCU, vs Michigan State, vs Louisville, Xavier, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, @ Kansas State, @ TCU, Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma State, TCU, West Virginia
Good Losses:@ West Virginia, @ Kansas, Kansas State, @ Texas Tech, Kansas, @ Iowa State
Bad Losses:None
Oklahoma State
Good Wins:@ Wichita State, West Virginia, @ Texas Tech, TCU, Arkansas, @ West Virginia, @ TCU, @ Kansas State, Texas Tech
Good Losses:vs North Carolina, @ Maryland, @ Baylor, Iowa State, @ Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, @ Iowa State, Kansas
Bad Losses:@ Texas
Probably In
Kansas State
Good Wins:@ Oklahoma State, West Virginia, @ Iowa State, @ Baylor, @ TCU, Texas Tech
Good Losses:vs Maryland, @ Kansas, @ Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Kansas, @ West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma State
Bad Losses:@ Tennessee, @ Oklahoma
Still a Chance
TCU
Good Wins:Illinois State, Iowa State, @ Kansas State, Texas Tech
Good Losses:@ SMU, Kansas, @ West Virginia, @ Texas Tech, Baylor, @ Oklahoma State, @ Baylor, Oklahoma State, @ Iowa State, @ Kansas, West Virginia, Kansas State
Bad Losses:Auburn, @ Oklahoma
Texas Tech
Good Wins:West Virginia, Kansas State, TCU, Baylor
Good Losses:@ Iowa State, @ Kansas, Oklahoma State, @ Baylor, @ TCU, Kansas, @ West Virginia, Iowa State, @ Oklahoma State, @ Kansas State
Bad Losses:vs Auburn, @ Oklahoma, @ Texas
Big East
Definitely In
Villanova
Good Wins:@ Purdue, vs Wake Forest, vs Notre Dame, @ Creighton, Marquette, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence, Virginia, @ Providence, @ Xavier, @ Seton Hall, Creighton
Good Losses:@ Butler, @ Marquette, Butler
Bad Losses:None
Butler
Good Wins:Northwestern, Bucknell, vs Vanderbilt, vs Arizona, @ Utah, Cincinnati, vs Indiana, Vermont, Providence, Villanova, Xavier, Marquette, @ Seton Hall, @ Marquette, @ Villanova, @ Xavier
Good Losses:@ Creighton, Creighton, @ Providence, Seton Hall
Bad Losses:@ Indiana State, @ St. John's, Georgetown
Creighton
Good Wins:Wisconsin, Seton Hall, @ Providence, Butler, @ Xavier, @ Butler
Good Losses: Villanova, Marquette, Xavier, @ Seton Hall, Providence, @ Villanova, @ Marquette
Bad Losses:@ Georgetown
Probably In
Marquette
Good Wins:vs Vanderbilt, @ Georgia, Seton Hall, @ Creighton, Villanova, Xavier, @ Xavier, Creighton
Good Losses:vs Michigan, Wisconsin, @ Seton Hall, @ Villanova, @ Butler, Providence, Butler, @ Providence
Bad Losses:vs Pittsburgh, @ St. John's, @ Georgetown
Good Chance
Xavier
Good Wins:vs Clemson, Utah, Wake Forest, Providence, Seton Hall, @ Creighton
Good Losses:@ Baylor, @ Villanova, @ Butler, Creighton, @ Cincinnati, Villanova, @ Providence, @ Marquette, @ Seton Hall, Butler, Marquette
Bad Losses:@ Colorado
Still a Chance
Providence
Good Wins:Vermont, Rhode Island, Seton Hall, @ Marquette, Butler, Xavier, @ Creighton, Marquette
Good Losses:@ Ohio State, vs Virginia, @ Xavier, @ Butler, Creighton, @ Villanova, Villanova, @ Seton Hall
Bad Losses:@ Boston College, @ DePaul, St. John's
Seton Hall
Good Wins:@ Iowa, vs California, vs South Carolina, Marquette, Providence, Creighton, Xavier, @ Butler
Good Losses:vs Florida, @ Creighton, @ Marquette, @ Providence, @ Villanova, Butler, @ Xavier, Villanova
Bad Losses:vs Stanford, @ St. John's
Big Ten
Definitely In
Purdue
Good Wins:vs Notre Dame, Iowa, @ Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, @ Michigan State, Northwestern, @ Maryland, @ Indiana, Michigan State, Indiana
Good Losses: Villanova, @ Louisville, Minnesota, @ Iowa, @ Nebraska, @ Michigan
Bad Losses:None
Wisconsin
Good Wins:Syracuse, @ Marquette, @ Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan, @ Minnesota, @ Illinois, Indiana, Maryland
Good Losses:@ Creighton, vs North Carolina, @ Purdue, Northwestern, @ Michigan, @ Ohio State, @ Michigan State, Iowa
Bad Losses:None
Minnesota
Good Wins:UT Arlington, Arkansas, vs Vanderbilt, @ Purdue, @ Northwestern, Ohio State, @ Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, @ Maryland
Good Losses:@ Florida State, Michigan State, @ Michigan State, Wisconsin, @ Ohio State, Maryland
Bad Losses:@ Penn State
Michigan
Good Wins:vs Marquette, vs SMU, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan State, @ Indiana, Wisconsin, Purdue
Good Losses:@ South Carolina, Virginia Tech, @ UCLA, @ Iowa, Maryland, @ Illinois, @ Wisconsin, @ Michigan State, Ohio State, @ Minnesota, @ Northwestern
Bad Losses:None
Solid Chance
Maryland
Good Wins:vs Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Illinois, @ Michigan, Indiana, @ Illinois, @ Iowa, @ Minnesota, @ Ohio State, Ohio State, @ Northwestern, Michigan State
Good Losses:Purdue, @ Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa
Bad Losses:Pittsburgh, Nebraska, @ Penn State
Northwestern
Good Wins:Wake Forest, vs Dayton, Iowa, @ Ohio State, Indiana, @ Wisconsin, Michigan
Good Losses:@ Butler, vs Notre Dame, @ Michigan State, Minnesota, @ Purdue, Illinois, Maryland, @ Illinois, @ Indiana
Bad Losses:None
Indiana
Good Wins:vs Kansas, North Carolina, Illinois, Michigan State, Northwestern, @ Ohio State
Good Losses:vs Butler, vs Louisville, Wisconsin, @ Maryland, @ Michigan, @ Northwestern, @ Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan, @ Minnesota, @ Iowa, @ Purdue
Bad Losses:@ Fort Wayne, Nebraska
Still a Chance
Michigan State
Good Wins:vs Wichita State, @ Minnesota, Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Good Losses:vs Arizona, vs Kentucky, vs Baylor, @ Duke, @ Ohio State, @ Indiana, Purdue, @ Michigan, @ Purdue, @ Illinois, @ Maryland
Bad Losses:Northeastern, vs Penn State
Iowa
Good Wins:Iowa State, Michigan, Purdue, Ohio State, Indiana, @ Maryland, @ Wisconsin
Good Losses:Seton Hall, vs Virginia, @ Notre Dame, @ Purdue, @ Northwestern, Maryland, @ Illinois, @ Minnesota, @ Michigan State, Illinois
Bad Losses:vs Memphis, Omaha, @ Nebraska
Illinois
Good Wins:vs VCU, vs BYU, Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, @ Northwestern, @ Iowa, Northwestern, Michigan State
Good Losses:vs West Virginia, vs Florida State, @ Maryland, @ Indiana, Maryland, @ Purdue, @ Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota
Bad Losses:Winthrop, @ Penn State, Penn State, @ Rutgers
Ohio State
Good Wins:Providence, Michigan State, Minnesota, @ Michigan, Wisconsin
Good Losses:@ Virginia, vs UCLA, @ Illinois, Purdue, @ Minnesota, @ Wisconsin, Northwestern, @ Iowa, Maryland, @ Maryland, @ Michigan State, Indiana
Bad Losses: FAU, Nebraska
Missouri Valley
Definitely In
Wichita State
Good Wins:Illinois State
Good Losses:vs Louisville, vs Michigan State, Oklahoma State, @ Illinois State
Bad Losses:None
Still a Chance
Illinois State
Good Wins:Wichita State
Good Losses:@ TCU, @ Wichita State
Bad Losses:@ Murray State, @ Tulsa, vs San Francisco
Pac 12
Definitely In
Oregon
Good Wins:UCLA, USC, California, @ Utah, Arizona, @ USC, Utah, @ California
Good Losses:@ Baylor, @ UCLA
Bad Losses:vs Georgetown, @ Colorado
Arizona
Good Wins:vs Michigan State, vs Texas A&M, @ California, Utah, @ USC, @ UCLA, California, USC
Good Losses:vs Butler, vs Gonzaga, @ Oregon, UCLA
Bad Losses:None
UCLA
Good Wins:vs Texas A&M, @ Kentucky, Michigan, vs Ohio State, California, @ Utah, Oregon, USC, @ Arizona
Good Losses:@ Oregon, Arizona, @ USC
Bad Losses:None
Still a Chance
Utah
Good Wins: USC, California
Good Losses:Butler, @ Xavier, @ Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, @ California, @ Oregon
Bad Losses:vs San Francisco, @ Stanford, @ Oregon State
California
Good Wins:vs Princeton, @ USC, Utah
Good Losses:vs Seton Hall, Virginia, Arizona, @ UCLA, @ Oregon, @ Arizona, Oregon, @ Utah
Bad Losses:vs San Diego State, @ Stanford, @ Colorado
USC
Good Wins:@ Texas A&M, SMU, vs BYU, UCLA
Good Losses:@ Oregon, California, @ Utah, Arizona, Oregon, @ UCLA, @ Arizona
Bad Losses:@ Arizona State
SEC
Definitely In
Kentucky
Good Wins:vs Michigan State, vs North Carolina, Texas A&M, Arkansas, @ Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Georgia, @ Georgia, Florida, Vanderbilt, @ Texas A&M
Good Losses:UCLA, @ Louisville, Kansas, @ Florida
Bad Losses:@ Tennessee
Florida
Good Wins:vs Seton Hall, vs Miami (FL), @ Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, @ Georgia, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Arkansas
Good Losses:vs Gonzaga, vs Duke, @ Florida State, @ South Carolina, Vanderbilt, @ Kentucky, @ Vanderbilt
Bad Losses:None
Probably In
South Carolina
Good Wins:Monmouth, Michigan, vs Syracuse, Vermont, @ Georgia, Texas A&M, Florida, Georgia
Good Losses:vs Seton Hall, Clemson, @ Kentucky, Arkansas, @ Vanderbilt, @ Florida
Bad Losses:@ Memphis, Alabama, @ Ole Miss
Arkansas
Good Wins:UT Arlington, Houston, @ Texas A&M, @ Vanderbilt, @ South Carolina, Texas A&M, Georgia
Good Losses:@ Minnesota, Florida, @ Kentucky, @ Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt, @ Florida
Bad Losses:Mississippi State, @ Missouri
Solid Chance
Vanderbilt
Good Wins:@ Florida, Iowa State, @ Texas A&M, @ Arkansas, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Florida
Good Losses:vs Marquette, Bucknell, vs Butler, vs Minnesota, @ Middle Tennessee, @ Dayton, Kentucky, @ Georgia, Arkansas, @ Kentucky
Bad Losses:@ Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss, @ Missouri
Still a Chance
Georgia
Good Wins:Vanderbilt
Good Losses:@ Clemson, vs Kansas, Marquette, South Carolina, @ Florida, @ Texas A&M, @ Kentucky, @ South Carolina, Florida, Kentucky, @ Arkansas
Bad Losses:@ Oakland, Alabama
Texas A&M
Good Wins:vs Virginia Tech, Georgia
Good Losses: USC, vs UCLA, vs Arizona, @ Kentucky, @ South Carolina, Arkansas, @ West Virginia, Vanderbilt, @ Florida, @ Vanderbilt, @ Arkansas, Kentucky
Bad Losses:vs Tennessee, @ Mississippi State
West Coast
Definitely In
Gonzaga
Good Wins:vs Florida, vs Iowa State, vs Arizona, Saint Mary's, @ BYU, @ Saint Mary's
Good Losses: BYU
Bad Losses:None
Saint Mary's
Good Wins:Nevada, @ Dayton, BYU, @ BYU,
Good Losses:UT Arlington, @ Gonzaga, Gonzaga
Bad Losses:None
Still a Chance
BYU
Good Wins:Princeton, @ Gonzaga
Good Losses:vs USC, vs Illinois, @ Saint Mary's, Gonzaga, Saint Mary's
Bad Losses:vs Valparaiso, Utah Valley, @ San Diego, @ Santa Clara, @ Pepperdine
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