This is a breakdown, by conference, of the teams that have a realistic chance at an at-large berth in the tournament, sorted by how likely they are to be selected as of today.
American
Definitely In
Houston (25-1, NET: 4)
Good Wins: @UCF, LSU, Cincinnati, Utah State
Bad Losses: None
Probably In
Cincinnati (22-4, NET: 25)
Good Wins: Ole Miss, @Temple, UCF
Bad Losses: @East Carolina
Good Chance
UCF (19-6, NET: 39)
Good Wins: Alabama, Temple
Bad Losses: FAU, @Missouri, @Wichita State
Still a Chance
Temple (19-7, NET: 56)
Good Wins: Houston
Bad Losses: Penn, @Tulsa
ACC
Definitely In
Virginia (23-2, NET: 2)
Good Wins: @North Carolina, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, @Virginia Tech, @Maryland, @NC State, Florida State, @Clemson, VCU
Bad Losses: None
North Carolina (21-5, NET: 9)
Good Wins: Gonzaga, @Duke, Virginia Tech, @Louisville, @Wofford, @NC State, NC State
Bad Losses: None
Duke (23-3, NET: 3)
Good Wins: Virginia, @Virginia, Kentucky, Texas Tech, @Louisville, Auburn, @Florida State, NC State, Clemson, St. John's, Indiana
Bad Losses: None
Probably In
Florida State (21-5, NET: 21)
Good Wins: Purdue, LSU, Louisville, @Syracuse, @Clemson, Florida, Clemson
Bad Losses: @Pittsburgh, @Boston College
Virginia Tech (20-6, NET: 13)
Good Wins: Purdue, @NC State, Washington, Syracuse,
Bad Losses: None
Louisville (18-9, NET: 19)
Good Wins: Michigan State, @North Carolina, @Virginia Tech, @Seton Hall, NC State, Clemson, Lipscomb
Bad Losses: @Pittsburgh
Should Be In
Syracuse (18-8, NET: 42)
Good Wins: @Duke, Louisville, @Ohio State, Clemson, Georgetown
Bad Losses: Old Dominion, Georgia Tech, UConn, Oregon
NC State (19-8, NET: 32)
Good Wins: Auburn, Syracuse, Clemson, Penn State
Bad Losses: @Wake Forest
Good Chance
Clemson (15-11, NET: 44)
Good Wins: Virginia Tech, Lipscomb
Bad Losses: @Miami
Big 12
Definitely In
Texas Tech (21-5, NET: 10)
Good Wins: @Texas, @Oklahoma, Kansas State, Nebraska, Baylor, Oklahoma, TCU
Bad Losses: None
Kansas (20-6, NET: 15)
Good Wins: Tennessee, Michigan State, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Marquette, @Baylor, Wofford, Villanova, @TCU, Texas, Oklahoma, TCU, New Mexico State
Bad Losses: @West Virginia
Probably In
Kansas State (20-6, NET: 28)
Good Wins: Texas Tech, @Iowa State, Kansas, @Baylor, @Texas, @Oklahoma, TCU
Bad Losses: @Texas A&M, @Tulsa
Iowa State (19-7, NET: 14)
Good Wins: @Texas Tech, Kansas, @Kansas State, @Ole Miss, @Oklahoma, Texas
Bad Losses: Arizona
Should Be In
Baylor (17-9, NET: 33)
Good Wins: Texas Tech, Iowa State, @Iowa State, @Oklahoma, Oklahoma, TCU, Alabama
Bad Losses: Texas Southern, Stephen F Austin, @Wichita State
Texas (15-11, NET: 35)
Good Wins: North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas, @Kansas State, Baylor, Oklahoma
Bad Losses: Radford, @Georgia, Providence, @Oklahoma State
Oklahoma (16-10, NET: 38)
Good Wins: Wofford, Florida, @TCU, TCU, Creighton
Bad Losses: @West Virginia
Good Chance
TCU (17-9, NET: 41)
Good Wins: @Iowa State, Florida, Baylor, Texas
Bad Losses: @Oklahoma State
Big East
Probably In
Marquette (22-4, NET: 18)
Good Wins: Wisconsin, Louisville, Buffalo, Villanova, Kansas State, @Butler, @Creighton, @Georgetown, Butler, Seton Hall
Bad Losses: None
Villanova (20-7, NET: 27)
Good Wins: Florida State, @Butler, @Creighton, St. John's, Temple, Creighton, Seton Hall, Georgetown
Bad Losses: @Penn
Good Chance
St. John's (19-8, NET: 49)
Good Wins: @Marquette, Marquette, Villanova, VCU, @Creighton, @Georgetown, Butler, Creighton
Bad Losses: DePaul, Providence
Seton Hall (16-10, NET: 64)
Good Wins: Kentucky, Maryland, @Creighton, St. John's, Butler, Creighton, Georgetown
Bad Losses: Xavier, DePaul, Saint Louis, @DePaul
Butler (15-12, NET: 50)
Good Wins: Florida, @Georgetown, Ole Miss, St. John's, Creighton, Seton Hall
Bad Losses: @Saint Louis, @Xavier, Dayton
Still a Chance
Georgetown (16-10, NET: 70)
Good Wins: Villanova, @St. John's, @Butler
Bad Losses: SMU, Loyola Marymount, @Xavier
Creighton (14-13, NET: 57)
Good Wins: Clemson, @Georgetown, Butler
Bad Losses: @Xavier
Big Ten
Definitely In
Michigan State (22-5, NET: 8)
Good Wins: Purdue, @Wisconsin, @Iowa, @Florida, Maryland, Iowa, Texas, @Ohio State, @Nebraska, @Penn State, Ohio State, Minnesota
Bad Losses: @Illinois
Purdue (19-7, NET: 11)
Good Wins: Michigan State, @Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa, @Ohio State, @Indiana, @Penn State, Nebraska, Minnesota, Belmont, Indiana, Penn State
Bad Losses: Notre Dame
Michigan (24-3, NET: 7)
Good Wins: North Carolina, Purdue, Wisconsin, @Villanova, Maryland, @Minnesota, @Indiana, Ohio State, Minnesota, Indiana
Bad Losses: None
Probably In
Maryland (20-7, NET: 23)
Good Wins: Purdue, Wisconsin, @Iowa, @Ohio State, @Nebraska, @Minnesota, Nebraska, Indiana, Penn State
Bad Losses: Illinois
Wisconsin (18-8, NET: 12)
Good Wins: Michigan, @Iowa, Maryland, Oklahoma, @Nebraska, @Minnesota, @Penn State, NC State
Bad Losses: @Western Kentucky
Iowa (21-6, NET: 30)
Good Wins: Michigan, Iowa State, @Indiana, @ Penn State, Ohio State, Nebraska, Indiana
Bad Losses: None
Should Be In
Ohio State (17-9, NET: 43)
Good Wins: @Cincinnati, @Nebraska, @Indiana, @Creighton, Minnesota, Penn State
Bad Losses: Illinois, @Rutgers
Good Chance
Minnesota (17-10, NET: 51)
Good Wins: @Wisconsin, Washington, Iowa, Nebraska, Indiana, Penn State
Bad Losses: @Boston College, @Illinois
Nebraska (15-12, NET: 46)
Good Wins: @Clemson, @Indiana, Minnesota, Creighton, Penn State, Seton Hall
Bad Losses: @Rutgers, @Illinois
Still a Chance
Indiana (13-14, NET: 54)
Good Wins: @Michigan State, Marquette, Louisville, Butler, @Penn State
Bad Losses: @Rutgers, @Northwestern
Penn State (10-16, NET: 60)
Good Wins: Michigan, Virginia Tech, Nebraska
Bad Losses: Rutgers, Bradley, @DePaul
MAC
Probably In
Buffalo (24-3, NET: 16)
Good Wins: @Syracuse, San Francisco, Toledo
Bad Losses: @Northern Illinois, @Bowling Green
Still a Chance
Toledo (20-6, NET: 65)
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: Ball State, @Kent State, @Wright State, @Eastern Michigan
MWC
Probably In
Nevada (24-2, NET: 22)
Good Wins: Utah State, Arizona State
Bad Losses: @New Mexico, @San Diego State
Good Chance
Utah State (21-6, NET: 36)
Good Wins: Saint Mary's
Bad Losses: Fresno State, @San Diego State, @BYU
Pac 12
Should Be In
Washington (21-5, NET: 29)
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None
Still a Chance
Arizona State (18-8, NET: 66)
Good Wins: Kansas, Mississippi State, Washington, Utah State
Bad Losses: Washington State, Princeton, Utah, @Vanderbilt, @Stanford, @USC
SEC
Definitely In
Tennessee (24-2, NET: 6)
Good Wins: Gonzaga, Louisville, @Florida, Florida, Alabama
Bad Losses: None
Kentucky (22-4, NET: 5)
Good Wins: Tennessee, North Carolina, Kansas, @Louisville, @Auburn, @Mississippi State, @Florida, Mississippi State
Bad Losses: None
Probably In
LSU (21-5, NET: 17)
Good Wins: @Kentucky, @Mississippi State, @Ole Miss, Auburn, Saint Mary's, Furman, Alabama
Bad Losses: Arkansas, Oklahoma State
Mississippi State (19-7, NET: 26)
Good Wins: @Ole Miss, Auburn, Wofford, Cincinnati, Saint Mary's, Clemson, Florida, Alabama
Bad Losses: @South Carolina
Auburn (18-8, NET: 20)
Good Wins: Washington, Florida, Alabama, Murray State
Bad Losses: @South Carolina
Should Be In
Ole Miss (18-8, NET: 34)
Good Wins: @Auburn, @Mississippi State, Auburn, Baylor
Bad Losses: South Carolina
Florida (15-11, NET: 31)
Good Wins: @LSU, @Alabama, Ole Miss, Butler
Bad Losses: South Carolina
Still a Chance
Alabama (15-11, NET: 53)
Good Wins: Kentucky, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Murray State, Penn State
Bad Losses: Georgia State, Texas A&M, Northeastern, @Texas A&M
Southern
Should Be In
Wofford (23-4, NET: 24)
Good Wins: Furman
Bad Losses: None
Still a Chance
Furman (22-5, NET: 45)
Good Wins: @Villanova
Bad Losses: Samford
West Coast
Definitely In
Gonzaga (26-2, NET: 1)
Good Wins: Duke, Washington, @San Francisco, @Creighton, Saint Mary's, San Francisco
Bad Losses: None
Good Chance
San Francisco (21-6, NET: 48)
Good Wins: Saint Mary's
Bad Losses: @UC Santa Barbara, @San Diego
Saint Mary's (18-10, NET: 40)
Good Wins: @New Mexico State, San Francisco
Bad Losses: UC Irvine, Harvard, @Pepperdine, @Western Kentucky, @BYU
Others
Good Chance
VCU (20-6, NET: 37)
Good Wins: @Texas, Temple
Bad Losses: Charleston, @Rhode Island, @Old Dominion
Still a Chance
New Mexico State (23-4, NET: 58)
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: Drake, @Cal Baptist
Belmont (22-4, NET: 52)
Good Wins: @Lipscomb, @Murray State, Lipscomb
Bad Losses: @Green Bay, @Jacksonville State, Jacksonville State
Murray State (22-4, NET: 59)
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: @Jacksonville State
Lipscomb (21-6, NET: 47)
Good Wins: @TCU
Bad Losses: @Florida Gulf Coast, @Liberty
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