NFL Playoff Odds - Divisional Round

Only 1 of the 4 home teams, Houston, won during Wild Card weekend, which created a big shift in the playoff odds after 1 weekend of playoff action. I've adjusted each team's rating based on last weekend's action, and reanalyzed the possible future matchups to determine each team's current odds of reaching and winning each remaining round, and I've included the change from last week's odds in parentheses:

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

1. Ravens - 77.1% (-5.1)
2. Chiefs - 75.1% (+12.4)
3. 49ers - 65.5% (-6.7)
4. Packers - 57.2% (+5.5)
5. Seahawks - 42.8% (+26.9)
6. Vikings - 34.5% (+22.0)
7. Texans - 24.9% (+15.7)
8. Titans - 22.9% (+16.1)

The Ravens and 49ers' odds both took a hit because of the 6-seeds winning, because both 6 seeds were better than any of the 4 or 5 seeds, who would have faced the top seeds if the sixes had lost. The same thing caused the 2-seeds' odds to rise, because they get to face the weaker competition rather than the tougher 3 seeds.

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. Ravens - 55.2% (-2.0)
2. 49ers - 46.8% (-2.6)
3. Chiefs - 30.4% (+5.9)
4. Packers - 20.8% (+1.9)
5. Vikings - 17.3% (+11.1)
6. Seahawks - 15.1% (+9.5)
7. Titans - 8.8% (+6.3)
8. Texans - 5.6% (+3.4)

The Ravens and 49ers are still the most likely to reach the Super Bowl, but both saw their paths get tougher as a result of last weekend's games. The Chiefs saw the biggest change among the teams who didn't play, because their path to the Super Bowl changed from going through the Patriots and Ravens to the Texans and Ravens, which appears much easier.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Ravens - 36.7% (-1.0)
2. 49ers - 22.3% (-0.7)
3. Chiefs - 16.8% (+3.5)
4. Packers - 6.8% (+0.8)
5. Vikings - 6.6% (+4.4)
6. Seahawks - 4.8% (+3.1)
7. Titans - 3.9% (+2.9)
8. Texans - 2.0% (+1.2)

The Ravens are still the best team in the league and the most likely to win it all, but Kansas City and Minnesota saw big jumps in their odds this weekend, as did the Seahawks and Titans, and nobody can be counted out. Whoever can win 3 games wins, and any of these teams is capable.

My Picks

Division

(1) Ravens over (6) Titans
(2) Chiefs over (4) Texans
(1) 49ers over (6) Vikings
(5) Seahawks over (2) Packers

Conference

(1) Ravens over (2) Chiefs
(1) 49ers over (5) Seahawks

Super Bowl

(1) Ravens over (1) 49ers