Wednesday, January 22, 2020

NCAA Bracket Prediction - 22 Jan

With less than 2 months left until the teams are selected for March Madness, I've finally put together my first bracket projection of the season. Familiar faces like Kansas and Duke are sitting in the top seed slots, but they are joined by Baylor and San Diego State, the lone undefeated team remaining. I will update my projection about once a week until the end of February, then a few times a week leading up to Selection Sunday. Projected conference champs are in bold:


WEST


EAST
1
San Diego St

1
Duke
16
Winthrop

16
St. Francis (PA)
8
Stanford

8
Creighton
9
Penn St

9
Florida
5
Colorado

5
Rutgers
12
Akron

12
East Tennessee St
4
Michigan St

4
Villanova
13
North Texas

13
Stephen F Austin
6
Arkansas

6
Marquette
11
Illinois

11
Virginia Tech
3
Butler

3
Maryland
14
Colgate

14
New Mexico St
7
Wisconsin

7
Michigan
10
Houston

10
USC
2
West Virginia

2
Gonzaga
15
Little Rock

15
Oral Roberts

SOUTH


MIDWEST
1
Baylor

1
Kansas
16
Murray St/Monmouth

16
Prairie View/Norfolk St
8
Iowa

8
Indiana
9
BYU

9
Northern Iowa
5
LSU

5
Arizona
12
Purdue/Georgetown

12
Liberty
4
Oregon

4
Auburn
13
Vermont

13
Yale
6
Ohio State

6
Kentucky
11
Saint Mary’s

11
Minnesota/VCU
3
Seton Hall

3
Florida State
14
William & Mary

14
UC Irvine
7
Wichita St

7
Memphis
10
NC State

10
Oklahoma
2
Dayton

2
Louisville
15
Northern Colorado

15
Wright State

Last Four Byes

Oklahoma
NC State
Virginia Tech
Saint Mary's

Last Four In

Minnesota
VCU
Purdue
Georgetown

First Four Out

Tennessee
Richmond
Saint Louis
Texas Tech

Next Four Out

Rhode Island
Alabama
Xavier
DePaul

Teams by Conference

Big 10 - 12
Big East - 6
ACC - 5
Pac 12 - 5
SEC - 5
Big 12 - 4
American - 3
West Coast - 3
Atlantic 10 - 2

5 comments:

  1. Do you even watch games? I can't believe you do if you have Illinois as low as 11.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This prediction is based on what I think the committee will do with the metrics they use, not how I think they deserve to be seeded.

      Delete
  2. So why then are the Illini drastically lower in your eyes than the majority of the rest of the polls in the bracket matrix? Illinois now has 3 solid quad one wins that aren't going anywhere, 2 of which are on the road (Rutgers, @Wisconsin, @Purdue). They have another that is teetering on quad one (Michigan). That seems like a better resume than Colorado who is a 5 seed in your bracket despite having only 2 quad one wins (Oregon & Dayton) neither of which were on the road (I know @Clemson is close at 77). Help me understand the wide discrepancy you see here.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The biggest thing against the Illini right now is their nonconference SOS, which is in the bottom third of the country. They do have the good fortune of playing in the best conference in the country, so they will have a ton of chances to pick up Q1 and Q2 wins, which should cancel out the SOS issue. Colorado's SOS numbers are much better at this point, though with only half of the Pac 12 even halfway decent this year, that should take a hit as the season goes on.

      Delete
  3. I see Colorado did beat Arizona State on the road which is a quad one right now at #63.

    ReplyDelete