NFL Playoff Odds

The NFL Playoffs are starting today, with 14 teams vying for the chance to win the Super Bowl next month, and there are a lot of teams with a really good chance of winning it all, not including the defending champs, so are also in the field but have a smaller chance. Here are my odds for each team to advance through each round of the playoffs, along with my picks for how everything will turn out over the next month:

Odds of Winning Wild Card

(5) Rams - 79.8%

(2) Patriots - 64.7%

(5) Texans - 63.8%

(3) Jaguars - 63.3%

(6) 49ers - 53.9%

(2) Bears - 53.5%

(7) Packers - 46.5%

(3) Eagles - 46.1%

(6) Bills - 36.7%

(4) Steelers - 36.2%

(7) Chargers - 35.3%

(4) Panthers - 20.2%

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

(1) Seahawks - 72.0%

(1) Broncos - 54.2%

(5) Rams - 50.5%

(3) Jaguars - 35.2%

(5) Texans - 34.2%

(2) Patriots - 32.5%

(2) Bears - 22.6%

(3) Eagles - 20.8%

(6) 49ers - 18.7%

(6) Bills - 17.1%

(7) Chargers - 14.0%

(4) Steelers - 12.8%

(7) Packers - 9.6%

(4) Panthers - 5.8%

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

(1) Seahawks - 48.8%

(5) Rams - 27.7%

(1) Broncos - 25.6%

(3) Jaguars - 21.2%

(5) Texans - 18.9%

(2) Patriots - 17.0%

(6) Bills - 7.9%

(6) 49ers - 7.7%

(3) Eagles - 6.0%

(2) Bears - 5.7%

(4) Steelers - 4.8%

(7) Chargers - 4.6%

(7) Packers - 2.9%

(4) Panthers - 1.2%

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

(1) Seahawks - 32.0%

(5) Rams - 17.9%

(3) Jaguars - 9.8%

(1) Broncos - 9.0%

(5) Texans - 8.7%

(2) Patriots - 6.7%

(6) 49ers - 3.9%

(6) Bills - 3.0%

(3) Eagles - 2.6%

(2) Bears - 2.2%

(7) Chargers - 1.36%

(4) Steelers - 1.35%

(7) Packers - 1.1%

(4) Panthers - 0.4%

The NFC West has over a 50% chance of winning this year's Super Bowl, with the two best teams in the league for most of the season, who played twice this year, each game with a final margin of fewer than 3 points. 

My Picks

Wild Card

(2) Patriots over (7) Chargers

(3) Jaguars over (6) Bills

(5) Texans over (4) Steelers

(2) Bears over (7) Packers

(3) Eagles over (6) 49ers

(5) Rams over (4) Panthers

Divisional

(1) Broncos over (5) Texans

(2) Patriots over (3) Jaguars

(1) Seahawks over (5) Rams

(2) Bears over (3) Eagles

Conference

(2) Patriots over (1) Broncos

(1) Seahawks over (2) Bears

Super Bowl

(1) Seahawks over (2) Patriots

NFL Predictions - 11 Dec thru 15 Dec

Upset picks are in italics.

Thursday

Atlanta at Tampa Bay - Buccaneers by 6.5

Sunday

Arizona at Houston - Texans by 11.5

Cleveland at Chicago - Bears by 8

Baltimore at Cincinnati - Ravens by 3.5

LA Chargers at Kansas City - Chiefs by 6.5

Buffalo at New England - Patriots by 1

Washington at NY Giants - Giants by 3

Las Vegas at Philadelphia - Eagles by 13.5

NY Jets at Jacksonville - Jaguars by 17

Green Bay at Denver - Broncos by 1

Detroit at LA Rams - Rams by 10

Carolina at New Orleans - Panthers by 1.5

Tennessee at San Francisco - 49ers by 15

Indianapolis at Seattle - Seahawks by 7

Minnesota at Dallas - Cowboys by 4

Monday

Miami at Pittsburgh - Steelers by 4

Results

NCAA: 6-3 (.667) 668-219 overall (.753)

Upsets: 0-1 (.000) 64-75 overall (.460)

NFL: 8-6 (.571) 131-76 overall (.633)

Upsets: 10-20 overall (.333)

NFL Rankings - 7 Oct

The opening month of the NFL season has been crazy, with all of the preseason favorites losing in confusing fashion at least once, which leaves the top spot open this week for the biggest surprise of the early season, the Indianapolis Colts, who were not projected to even get close to the playoffs this year, with Giants reject Daniel Jones starting at quarterback, but they have proven everybody wrong so far. Houston sits at #2, despite a losing overall record, thanks to playing in the strongest overall division so far, and riding the momentum of a blowout road win against the Ravens, a game which they were picked to lose, even with Lamar Jackson out with an injury. Here are my full current rankings and playoff picks:

				Actual		Proj
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	Seed
1	23	Indianapolis	-11.34	4	1	12	5	A1
2	17	Houston	-9.202	2	3	10	7	A7
3	14	LA Rams	-7.956	3	2	11	6	N5
4	15	Denver	-7.467	3	2	11	6	A2
5	1	Detroit	-6.814	4	1	12	5	N2
6	3	Philadelphia	-6.684	4	1	12	5	N1
7	18	Seattle	-6.151	3	2	10	7
8	22	Jacksonville	-5.746	4	1	11	6	A3
9	11	Washington	-5.416	3	2	10	7	N7
10	9	Green Bay	-4.97	2.5	1.5	10.5	6.5	N6
11	8	San Francisco	-4.628	4	1	11	6	N4
12	7	Kansas City	-3.803	2	3	9	8
13	5	Tampa Bay	-3.225	4	1	11	6	N3
14	12	LA Chargers	-0.591	3	2	9	8
15	4	Buffalo	-0.077	4	1	10	7	A5
16	13	Arizona	0.2336	2	3	7	10
17	28	New England	0.456	3	2	11	6	A4
18	19	Atlanta	0.6518	2	2	8	9
19	21	Pittsburgh	1.8309	3	1	10	7	A6
20	20	Dallas	2.1273	2.5	2.5	7.5	9.5
21	10	Minnesota	2.7589	3	2	8	9
22	32	Carolina	3.49	2	3	7	10
23	24	Chicago	3.6738	2	2	8	9
24	2	Baltimore	4.6464	1	4	7	10
25	30	Tennessee	5.1729	1	4	5	12
26	25	Las Vegas	6.3752	1	4	5	12
27	16	Miami	7.2573	1	4	6	11
28	29	NY Giants	7.3582	1	4	4	13
29	26	New Orleans	7.3782	1	4	5	12
30	6	Cincinnati	9.5103	2	3	6	11
31	31	Cleveland	10.226	1	4	5	12
32	27	NY Jets	11.163	0	5	4	13

Playoff Picks

Wild Card

(2) Broncos over (7) Texans

(3) Jaguars over (6) Steelers

(4) Patriots over (5) Bills

(2) Lions over (7) Commanders

(3) Buccaneers over (6) Packers

(5) Rams over (4) 49ers

Divisional

(1) Colts over (4) Patriots

(2) Broncos over (3) Jaguars

(1) Eagles over (5) Rams

(2) Lions over (3) Buccaneers

Conference

(1) Colts over (2) Broncos

(1) Eagles over (2) Lions

Super Bowl

(1) Colts over (1) Eagles

Football Predictions - 29 Oct thru 4 Nov

Upset picks are in italics.

Tuesday

New Mexico State at FIU - Golden Panthers by 14.5

Louisiana at Texas State - Bobcats by 5

Louisiana Tech at Sam Houston - Bearkats by 17

Wednesday

Jacksonville State at Liberty - Flames by 1.5

Kennesaw State at Western Kentucky - Hilltoppers by 33.5

Thursday

Tulane at Charlotte - Green Wave by 11

Houston at NY Jets - Texans by 4.5

Friday

Georgia State at UConn - Huskies by 13.5

South Florida at FAU - Owls by 1.5

San Diego State at (15) Boise State - Broncos by 28.5

Saturday

(4) Ohio State at (3) Penn State - Buckeyes by 1.5

Duke at (5) Miami - Hurricanes by 19

(19) Ole Miss at Arkansas - Rebels by 4

Air Force at (21) Army - Black Knights by 34.5

Minnesota at (24) Illinois - Illini by 3

Northwestern at Purdue - Wildcats by 2.5

Stanford at NC State - Wolfpack by 5.5

Virginia Tech at Syracuse - Hokies by 7.5

Buffalo at Akron - Zips by 0.5

Toledo at Eastern Michigan - Rockets by 4

Memphis at UTSA - Tigers by 7.5

Vanderbilt at Auburn - Commodores by 1

Maine at Oklahoma - Sooners by 24.5

Old Dominion at App State - Monarchs by 6.5

Tulsa at UAB - Blazers by 7

(1) Oregon at Michigan - Ducks by 11

Florida vs. (2) Georgia - Bulldogs by 9.5

Texas Tech at (11) Iowa State - Cyclones by 17.5

(13) Indiana at Michigan State - Hoosiers by 10

(17) Kansas State at Houston - Wildcats by 11.5

UCLA at Nebraska - Cornhuskers by 12

North Carolina at Florida State - Tar Heels by 3

Arizona at UCF - Knights by 11.5

Middle Tennessee at UTEP - Miners by 7

UL Monroe at Marshall - Thundering Herd by 11

Wyoming at New Mexico - Lobos by 4.5

Coastal Carolina at Troy - Chanticleers by 2.5

Navy at Rice - Midshipmen by 12

UMass at Mississippi State - Bulldogs by 12.5

Arizona State at Oklahoma State - Cowboys by 2.5

Hawaii at Fresno State - Bulldogs by 7

(10) Texas A&M at South Carolina - Gamecocks by 3

Louisville at (11) Clemson - Tigers by 7

Wisconsin at Iowa - Hawkeyes by 7

USC at Washington - Trojans by 2

Georgia Southern at South Alabama - Jaguars by 4.5

Kentucky at (7) Tennessee - Volunteers by 16.5

(18) Pittsburgh at (20) SMU - Mustangs by 7

TCU at Baylor - Bears by 7.5

Colorado State at Nevada - Wolf Pack by 5.5

Sunday

Dallas at Atlanta - Falcons by 5

Miami at Buffalo - Bills by 18

Las Vegas at Cincinnati - Bengals by 4

LA Chargers at Cleveland - Chargers by 12.5

New England at Tennessee - Titans by 4.5

Washington at NY Giants - Commanders by 10.5

New Orleans at Carolina - Saints by 12.5

Denver at Baltimore - Broncos by 1

Chicago at Arizona - Bears by 3

Jacksonville at Philadelphia - Eagles by 11.5

Detroit at Green Bay - Lions by 6

LA Rams at Seattle - Rams by 0.5

Indianapolis at Minnesota - Vikings by 9

Monday

Tampa Bay at Kansas City - Chiefs by 1

Results

NCAA: 45-12 (.789) 434-143 overall (.752)

Upsets: 2-2 (.500) 33-46 overall (.418)

NFL: 12-4 (.750) 68-55 overall (.553)

Upsets: 3-1 (.750) 14-27 overall (.341)

NFL Rankings - 10 Oct

There are two undefeated teams remaining after 5 weeks of the regular season, one completely expected, and one very much not. The Saints are at #3 despite a losing record, but are also projected to miss the playoffs in a tiebreaker. San Francisco is still projected to win their division despite a slow start and tons of injuries, and the Dolphins are at the bottom after losing their quarterback and most of their games in the early going. Here are my full current rankings and playoff predictions:

				Actual		Proj
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	Seed
1	1	Minnesota	-13.46	5	0	15	2	N1
2	7	Kansas City	-10.2	5	0	14	3	A1
3	3	New Orleans	-8.425	2	3	10	7
4	4	Tampa Bay	-7.836	3	2	11	6	N3
5	2	Pittsburgh	-7.123	3	2	11	6	A2
6	5	Denver	-6.318	3	2	11	6	A5
7	13	Washington	-6.103	4	1	11	6	N2
8	10	Atlanta	-5.907	3	2	10	7
9	6	Green Bay	-5.267	3	2	11	6	N5
10	9	Philadelphia	-4.758	2	2	10	7	N7
11	11	Detroit	-4.696	3	1	10	7	N6
12	16	Baltimore	-4.245	3	2	10	7	A6
13	8	San Francisco	-3.794	2	3	9	8	N4
14	12	NY Jets	-3.115	2	3	10	7	A3
15	14	LA Chargers	-2.957	2	2	9	8
16	19	Dallas	-1.588	3	2	9	8
17	21	Buffalo	-0.087	3	2	10	7	A7
18	22	Arizona	0.543	2	3	8	9
19	20	Chicago	0.825	3	2	8	9
20	25	NY Giants	0.91	2	3	7	10
21	15	Indianapolis	1.75	2	3	8	9
22	18	Cincinnati	1.928	1	4	6	11
23	17	Seattle	2.262	3	2	8	9
24	23	Houston	2.473	4	1	10	7	A4
25	27	LA Rams	5.051	1	4	6	11
26	26	Tennessee	5.085	1	3	6	11
27	28	Las Vegas	8.818	2	3	5	12
28	24	New England	10.42	1	4	5	12
29	30	Cleveland	11.04	1	4	3	14
30	29	Carolina	13.17	1	4	2	15
31	31	Jacksonville	13.24	1	4	4	13
32	32	Miami	16.9	2	3	4	13

Playoff Picks

Wild Card

(2) Steelers over (7) Bills

(3) Jets over (6) Ravens

(5) Broncos over (4) Texans

(2) Commanders over (7) Eagles

(3) Buccaneers over (6) Lions

(4) 49ers over (5) Packers

Divisional

(1) Chiefs over (5) Broncos

(2) Steelers over (3) Jets

(1) Vikings over (4) 49ers

(3) Buccaneers over (2) Commanders

Conference

(1) Chiefs over (2) Steelers

(1) Vikings over (3) Buccaneers

Super Bowl

(1) Vikings over (1) Chiefs