NFL Playoff Odds - 2020

After a final weekend that had over a dozen crazy playoff scenarios, very little actually changed in week 17, with Kansas City and New England swapping spots while the rest remained exactly where they had been. I've broken down every team's odds of beating any other team and where that game would be played, along with the odds of that matchup taking place, to determine each team's odds of advancing through each playoff round and winning the Super Bowl. Here is the full breakdown:

Odds of Winning Wild Card Round

1. Patriots - 67.2%
2. Saints - 61.9%
3. Texans - 51.6%
4. Eagles - 51.3%
5. Seahawks - 48.7%
6. Bills - 48.4%
7. Vikings - 38.1%
8. Titans - 32.8%

Home field advantage is very important here, especially in the 4-5 matchups, where the road team is the better team but must face the opposing crowd.

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

1. Ravens - 82.2%
2. 49ers - 72.2%
3. Chiefs - 62.7%
4. Packers - 51.7%
5. Saints - 33.4%
6. Patriots - 28.6%
7. Seahawks - 15.9%
8. Eagles - 14.4%
9. Vikings - 12.5%
10. Bills - 10.5%
11. Texans - 9.2%
12. Titans - 6.8%

The Saints odds are pretty decent here, despite the fact that they would have to go through Green Bay to get there. New Orleans better by quite a bit, so they would be favored in that game. The Seahawks also have a better chance of winning 2 than the Eagles, even though the Eagles have a slightly better chance of winning this weekend.

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. Ravens - 57.2%
2. 49ers - 49.4%
3. Chiefs - 24.5%
4. Packers - 18.9%
5. Saints - 15.4%
6. Patriots - 10.7%
7. Vikings - 6.2%
8. Seahawks - 5.6%
9. Eagles - 4.4%
10. Bills - 2.9%
11. Titans - 2.5%
12. Texans - 2.2%

Both 6 seeds move up a little on this list, because they would have already beaten the top seeds in the divisional round in order to be in the conference title game, so they would have a less formidable opponent standing in the way at this point than the teams above them.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Ravens - 37.7%
2. 49ers - 23.0%
3. Chiefs - 13.3%
4. Saints - 6.4%
5. Packers - 6.0%
6. Patriots - 5.7%
7. Vikings - 2.2%
8. Seahawks - 1.7%
9. Bills - 1.13%
10. Eagles - 1.12%
11. Titans - 1.0%
12. Texans - 0.8%

The Ravens, who haven't lost since September, are the clear favorites to win the Super Bowl, but it is far from a runaway. 6 teams have a legitimate shot, and none of the other 6 should be counted out.

My Picks

Wild Card

Patriots 28, Titans 21
Bills 21, Texans 20
Saints 28, Vikings 22
Seahawks 26, Eagles 24

Division

Ravens 27, Bills 12
Chiefs 23, Patriots 20
49ers 32, Seahawks 22
Saints 25, Packers 24

Conference

Ravens 24, Chiefs 17
49ers 32, Saints 27

Super Bowl

Ravens 28, 49ers 24