The NFL playoffs begin tomorrow with the Wild Card round, which will last through Monday, with Kansas City and Philadelphia sitting at home enjoying a bye week. I've broken down the odds of any matchup happening at any point in the playoffs, along with each team's odds of beating any other, to determine each team's chances of advancing through each round and winning the Super Bowl.
Odds of Winning Wild Card Round
(2) Bills - 73.8%
(2) 49ers - 73.0%
(5) Cowboys - 63.63%
(3) Bengals - 63.58%
(4) Jaguars - 59.8%
(3) Vikings - 56.8%
(6) Giants - 43.2%
(5) Chargers - 40.2%
(6) Ravens - 36.42%
(4) Buccaneers - 36.37%
(7) Seahawks - 27.0%
(7) Dolphins - 26.2%
The Cowboys are the only lower seed who is favored to win, but there should be a couple of other close games that could go either way.
Odds of Reaching Conference Championship
(1) Eagles - 67.2%
(1) Chiefs - 65.7%
(2) 49ers - 49.9%
(2) Bills - 49.3%
(5) Cowboys - 30.6%
(3) Bengals - 29.5%
(4) Jaguars - 20.0%
(3) Vikings - 19.5%
(6) Ravens - 15.1%
(6) Giants - 13.7%
(5) Chargers - 11.4%
(4) Buccaneers - 11.1%
(7) Dolphins - 9.0%
(7) Seahawks - 8.0%
The top seeds in each conference are the most likely to get this far, with the 1 seeds having the advantage of only needing one game to do it.
Odds of Reaching Super Bowl
(1) Eagles - 39.2%
(1) Chiefs - 32.8%
(2) Bills - 31.4%
(2) 49ers - 27.2%
(3) Bengals - 15.9%
(5) Cowboys - 15.1%
(3) Vikings - 7.4%
(4) Jaguars - 7.0%
(6) Ravens - 5.7%
(6) Giants - 4.4%
(7) Dolphins - 3.6%
(4) Buccaneers - 3.5%
(5) Chargers - 3.4%
(7) Seahawks - 3.2%
Every team has a chance at making the Super Bowl, but there is a clear hierarchy, with 2 favorites from each conference, along with 1 other team from each side with a good chance. The remaining 8 teams are somewhat longshots, but they wouldn't be here if they didn't have a chance.
Odds of Winning Super Bowl
(2) Bills - 19.3%
(1) Eagles - 19.2%
(1) Chiefs - 17.3%
(2) 49ers - 14.0%
(3) Bengals - 8.6%
(5) Cowboys - 7.1%
(4) Jaguars - 2.9%
(3) Vikings - 2.60%
(6) Ravens - 2.58%
(7) Dolphins - 1.5%
(6) Giants - 1.4%
(5) Chargers - 1.2%
(4) Buccaneers - 1.05%
(7) Seahawks - 1.03%
Buffalo's has been the best team in my rankings all season long, and with a guarantee that they won't play a road game, just like the 1 seeds, they are the slight favorite to take home the trophy this year.
My Picks
Wild Card
(2) Bills over (7) Dolphins by 10
(3) Bengals over (6) Ravens by 7
(5) Chargers over (4) Jaguars by 3
(2) 49ers over (7) Seahawks by 8
(6) Giants over (3) Vikings by 6
(5) Cowboys over (4) Buccaneers by 3
Divisional
(1) Chiefs over (5) Chargers by 8
(2) Bills over (3) Bengals by 4
(1) Eagles over (6) Giants by 6
(5) Cowboys over (2) 49ers by 1
Conference
(2) Bills over (1) Chiefs by 3
(5) Cowboys over (1) Eagles by 4
Super Bowl
(2) Bills over (5) Cowboys by 7
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