After adding in the results of last weekend's 6 NFL playoff games and recalculating the odds of any potential future matchup, I've got an update on each team's odds of advancing through the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. Any change from last week's odds is in parentheses:
Odds of Reaching Conference Championship
(1) Eagles - 69.5% (+2.3)
(1) Chiefs - 65.6% (-0.1)
(2) Bills - 60.5% (+11.2)
(2) 49ers - 58.1% (+8.2)
(5) Cowboys - 41.9% (+18.5)
(3) Bengals - 39.5% (+10.0)
(4) Jaguars - 34.4% (+14.4)
(6) Giants - 30.5% (+16.8)
Dallas saw the biggest increase because they avoided facing the Eagles for another round, which also helped the Eagles' odds slightly, while San Fran saw the smallest increase of the winners because now they have to face Dallas instead of Minnesota or Tampa Bay.
Odds of Reaching Super Bowl
(2) Bills - 38.2% (+6.8)
(1) Eagles - 36.6% (-2.6)
(2) 49ers - 32.5% (+5.3)
(1) Chiefs - 30.4% (-2.4)
(5) Cowboys - 22.0% (+6.9)
(3) Bengals - 21.3% (+5.4)
(4) Jaguars - 10.1% (+3.1)
(6) Giants - 8.9% (+4.5)
Both 1-seeds saw their odds drop because their toughest opponents advanced, leaving them tough paths to the Super Bowl, but all 4 of the top seeds have very good odds of getting there.
Odds of Winning Super Bowl
(2) Bills - 22.2% (+2.9)
(1) Eagles - 17.5% (-1.7)
(2) 49ers - 16.6% (+2.6)
(1) Chiefs - 15.3% (-2.0)
(3) Bengals - 11.1% (+2.5)
(5) Cowboys - 10.4% (+3.3)
(4) Jaguars - 3.9% (+1.0)
(6) Giants - 2.9% (+1.5)
Buffalo is the clear favorite, but there are 3 very good teams not far behind, and 2 more very solid teams that are definitely in the hunt as well.
My Picks
Divisional
(1) Chiefs over (4) Jaguars by 7
(2) Bills over (3) Bengals by 4
(1) Eagles over (6) Giants by 8
(5) Cowboys over (2) 49ers by 3
Conference
(2) Bills over (1) Chiefs by 3
(5) Cowboys over (1) Eagles by 2
Super Bowl
(2) Bills over (5) Cowboys by 3
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