There are only 2 teams remaining in the hunt for the NBA title, the heavy-favorite Thunder, and the Indiana Pacers, who are never out of a game. Here are each team's odds of winning the championship:
Odds of Winning NBA Finals
(1) Thunder - 97.0% (+9.7)
(4) Pacers - 3.0% (+0.2)
My Pick
Thunder in 6
The Conference Finals begin tomorrow, with only 1 of the 3 teams that started out with the best odds is still alive, with Cleveland and Boston bowing out in round 2 while dealing with injuries. Here are each remaining team's odds of making the Finals and of winning the Finals, and the top 4 Finals MVP favorites, along with a backup choice for each team:
Odds of Making NBA Finals
(1) Thunder - 90.7% (+7.9)
(3) Knicks - 59.5% (+56.1)
(4) Pacers - 40.5% (+39.6)
(6) Timberwolves - 9.3% (+3.8)
The Western Conference played out how I expected, so neither team's odds changed that much, but I expected the Celtics and Cavaliers to be the final teams in the East, so New York and Indiana have much better odds of reaching the Finals than they did a month ago.
Odds of Winning NBA Finals
(1) Thunder - 87.3% (+21.5)
(6) Timberwolves - 6.1% (+4.5)
(3) Knicks - 4.5% (+4.1)
(4) Pacers - 2.8% (+2.7)
Other than the Thunder, these teams were all big longshots to win it all originally, and while those 3 have seen their odds improve a bit, the Thunder are huge favorites to win their first title in Oklahoma, and the franchise's first title since they won in 1979 as the Supersonics.
Most Valuable Player
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - PG - OKC
29.0 Pts (#5), 5.9 Reb, 6.4 Ast (#7), 1.5 Stl (#13), 0.7 Blk, .478 FG%, .293 3P%, .854 FT%
2. Jalen Brunson - PG - NYK
28.8 Pts (#6), 3.9 Reb, 7.7 Ast (#5), 0.4 Stl, 0.3 Blk, .440 FG%, .363 3P%, .819 FT%
3. Tyrese Haliburton - PG - IND
17.5 Pts, 5.5 Reb, 9.3 Ast (#1), 0.7 Stl, 0.9 Blk, .474 FG%, .338 3P%, .794 FT%
4. Anthony Edwards - SG - MIN
26.5 Pts (#8), 8.0 Reb (#16), 5.9 Ast (#10), 1.5 Stl (#14), 0.8 Blk, .445 FG%, .385 3P%, .737 FT%
Honorable Mention: Julius Randle - PF - MIN, Jalen Williams - SG - OKC, Karl-Anthony Towns - C - NYK, TJ McConnell - PG - IND
It has been 7 years since a team has repeated as NBA champions, so even though the Boston Celtics were dominant in last season's playoffs, they still aren't guaranteed to do it again. There are a couple of teams with young rising stars, and several with former MVP winners, that all look poised to give Boston a challenge this season. Dallas was the hottest team at the end of the regular season last year, and took that momentum all the way to the NBA Finals, and with one of the greatest young players in the game leading the way, they are starting this season as my pick to win the 2025 championship. Here are my full preseason rankings:
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Record |
Proj |
|
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|
Rank |
LW |
Team |
Rating |
W |
L |
W |
L |
Seed |
|
1 |
6 |
Dallas |
-9.253 |
|
|
64 |
16 |
W1 |
|
2 |
8 |
Indiana |
-7.523 |
|
|
61 |
19 |
E1 |
|
3 |
13 |
Milwaukee |
-6.24 |
|
|
58 |
22 |
E2 |
|
4 |
4 |
Denver |
-5.707 |
|
|
55 |
25 |
W2 |
|
5 |
18 |
LA Lakers |
-5.362 |
|
|
55 |
25 |
W3 |
|
6 |
11 |
Phoenix |
-4.236 |
|
|
51 |
29 |
W4 |
|
7 |
1 |
Boston |
-4.219 |
|
|
54 |
26 |
E3 |
|
8 |
12 |
Sacramento |
-3.585 |
|
|
50 |
30 |
W5 |
|
9 |
2 |
Oklahoma City |
-3.274 |
|
|
50 |
30 |
W6 |
|
10 |
3 |
Minnesota |
-3.131 |
|
|
49 |
31 |
W7 |
|
11 |
14 |
Philadelphia |
-2.886 |
|
|
50 |
30 |
E4 |
|
12 |
7 |
New York |
-1.929 |
|
|
47 |
33 |
E5 |
|
13 |
24 |
San Antonio |
-0.59 |
|
|
42 |
38 |
W8 |
|
14 |
16 |
Cleveland |
0.1474 |
|
|
41 |
39 |
E6 |
|
15 |
5 |
New Orleans |
1.0274 |
|
|
37 |
43 |
W9 |
|
16 |
23 |
Utah |
1.1792 |
|
|
37 |
43 |
W10 |
|
17 |
10 |
Golden State |
1.8916 |
|
|
35 |
45 |
|
|
18 |
21 |
Atlanta |
2.2563 |
|
|
36 |
44 |
E7 |
|
19 |
9 |
LA Clippers |
2.5489 |
|
|
32 |
48 |
|
|
20 |
29 |
Detroit |
2.8345 |
|
|
34 |
46 |
E8 |
|
21 |
19 |
Miami |
3.6009 |
|
|
31 |
49 |
E9 |
|
22 |
17 |
Houston |
3.6563 |
|
|
30 |
50 |
|
|
23 |
15 |
Orlando |
3.9349 |
|
|
31 |
49 |
|
|
24 |
28 |
Washington |
4.001 |
|
|
31 |
49 |
E10 |
|
25 |
25 |
Toronto |
5.0643 |
|
|
27 |
53 |
|
|
26 |
27 |
Portland |
5.198 |
|
|
25 |
55 |
|
|
27 |
22 |
Brooklyn |
5.6578 |
|
|
26 |
54 |
|
|
28 |
20 |
Chicago |
6.5938 |
|
|
23 |
57 |
|
|
29 |
30 |
Charlotte |
7.9831 |
|
|
21 |
59 |
|
|
30 |
26 |
Memphis |
8.0526 |
|
|
19 |
61 |
|
