NBA Playoff Odds - 2026

The playoff field is finally set, and games will begin later today on the journey to crown this season's NBA champion, with the defending champions as the clear favorite to repeat. Using the results of every game from this season, and after calculating the odds of any possible playoff scenario, I've come up with each team's odds of advancing through this season's playoffs and ending up with the title, and have included my own picks as well.

Odds of Winning First Round

(1) Thunder - 95.25%

(2) Spurs - 94.2%

(1) Pistons - 90.3%

(2) Celtics - 90.2%

(3) Knicks - 73.6%

(5) Rockets - 68.1%

(3) Nuggets - 66.8%

(4) Cavaliers - 62.3%

(5) Raptors - 37.7%

(6) Timberwolves - 33.2%

(4) Lakers - 31.9%

(6) Hawks - 26.4%

(7) 76ers - 9.8%

(8) Magic - 9.7%

(7) Trail Blazers - 5.8%

(8) Suns - 4.75%

The only lower seed that is favored in the first round is Houston, who is facing a Lakers team with multiple injuries and is far worse than its record would suggest, even when healthy.

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

(1) Thunder - 84.9%

(2) Spurs - 73.8%

(1) Pistons - 71.0%

(2) Celtics - 62.9%

(3) Knicks - 29.3%

(3) Nuggets - 19.1%

(4) Cavaliers - 18.1%

(5) Rockets - 11.2%

(5) Raptors - 8.0%

(6) Timberwolves - 5.9%

(6) Hawks - 5.6%

(8) Magic - 2.9%

(4) Lakers - 2.4%

(7) 76ers - 2.2%

(8) Suns - 1.6%

(7) Trail Blazers - 1.3%

The top seeds in each conference are heavy favorites to reach the Conference Finals, but several other teams have at least a chance.

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

(1) Thunder - 62.2%

(1) Pistons - 41.5%

(2) Celtics - 35.8%

(2) Spurs - 28.9%

(3) Knicks - 13.1%

(4) Cavaliers - 5.6%

(3) Nuggets - 3.9%

(5) Rockets - 3.6%

(5) Raptors - 1.8%

(6) Hawks - 1.4%

(6) Timberwolves - 0.7%

(4) Lakers - 0.415%

(8) Magic - 0.411%

(7) 76ers - 0.34%

(8) Suns - 0.26%

(7) Trail Blazers - 0.07%

Only the Spurs really threaten the Thunder in the West, while there are 3 or possibly 4 teams in the East with a realistic shot.

Odds of Winning NBA Championship

(1) Thunder - 48.2%

(2) Spurs - 18.3%

(1) Pistons - 14.1%

(2) Celtics - 12.1%

(3) Knicks - 3.0%

(3) Nuggets - 1.4%

(5) Rockets - 1.3%

(4) Cavaliers - 0.9%

(5) Raptors - 0.18%

(6) Timberwolves - 0.16%

(6) Hawks - 0.13%

(4) Lakers - 0.08%

(8) Suns - 0.05%

(8) Magic - 0.023%

(7) 76ers - 0.019%

(7) Trail Blazers - 0.008%

Oklahoma City is the favorite again by a wide margin, but it's much smaller than last year, when they had a 65.8% chance of winning it all. If the Spurs can defeat the Thunder, their odds of winning the Finals are 63.5%, as they would have home court over any team in the East.

My Picks

First Round

(1) Pistons over (8) Magic in 5

(2) Celtics over (7) 76ers in 4

(3) Knicks over (6) Hawks in 6

(5) Raptors over (4) Cavaliers in 6

(1) Thunder over (8) Suns in 6

(2) Spurs over (7) Trail Blazers in 5

(3) Nuggets over (6) Timberwolves in 4

(5) Rockets over (4) Lakers in 6

Second Round

(1) Pistons over (5) Raptors in 5

(2) Celtics over (3) Knicks in 5

(1) Thunder over (5) Rockets in 5

(2) Spurs over (3) Nuggets in 5

Conference Finals

(2) Celtics over (1) Pistons in 6

(1) Thunder over (2) Spurs in 7

NBA Finals

(1) Thunder over (2) Celtics in 7

In a matchup of the 2 most recent champions, the Thunder become the first team to repeat since the 2018 Warriors, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander wins his second straight Finals MVP.

NBA Rankings - 20 Dec

The Oklahoma City Thunder have lost twice in the past week, after having only 1 loss in their first 25 games, which tied an all-time record, but they are still by far the best team in the league at this point. New York moved up 3 spots and is now projected to take the top seed in the East after they took the NBA Cup championship this past week, and the Celtics and Timberwolves have come back to life, each entering the top 10 with 5-spot jumps. Here are my full current rankings and playoff picks:

				Record		Proj
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	Seed
1	1	Oklahoma City	-12.2	25	3	70	12	W1
2	2	Houston	-8.273	16	8	61	21	W2
3	3	Denver	-7.693	20	6	61	21	W3
4	7	New York	-6.084	19	8	57	25	E1
5	4	San Antonio	-5.246	20	7	56	26	W4
6	8	Detroit	-4.548	21	6	57	25	E2
7	12	Boston	-4.282	16	11	52	30	E3
8	6	Orlando	-3.794	15	12	52	30	E4
9	14	Minnesota	-3.379	18	10	50	32	W5
10	5	Miami	-2.41	15	13	47	35	E5
11	15	Golden State	-1.787	13	15	43	39	W8
12	11	LA Lakers	-1.768	19	7	50	32	W6
13	13	Phoenix	-1.695	15	12	45	37	W7
14	9	Toronto	-0.892	17	11	45	37	E6
15	18	Philadelphia	-0.527	15	11	44	38	E7
16	10	Cleveland	0.0354	15	14	41	41	E8
17	20	Memphis	0.5269	13	14	39	43	W9
18	16	Atlanta	0.9715	15	14	40	42	E9
19	17	Portland	1.3037	11	16	37	45	W10
20	26	Dallas	3.2719	11	17	31	51
21	23	Charlotte	3.7943	9	18	30	52
22	21	Milwaukee	3.8956	11	17	31	51
23	19	Chicago	3.9863	12	15	32	50	E10
24	22	LA Clippers	4.3675	6	21	26	56
25	24	Utah	4.931	10	16	28	54
26	29	New Orleans	5.8314	6	22	23	59
27	27	Brooklyn	6.0572	7	19	24	58
28	25	Sacramento	6.6787	6	21	23	59
29	28	Indiana	7.8658	6	21	20	62
30	30	Washington	11.667	4	21	13	69

Playoff Picks

Play In

(7) 76ers over (8) Cavaliers

(9) Hawks over (10) Bulls

(8) Cavaliers over (9) Hawks

(7) Suns over (8) Warriors

(9) Grizzlies over (10) Trail Blazers

(8) Warriors over (9) Grizzlies

First Round

(1) Knicks over (8) Cavaliers in 5

(2) Pistons over (7) 76ers in 6

(3) Celtics over (6) Raptors in 6

(4) Magic over (5) Heat in 7

(1) Thunder over (8) Warriors in 4

(2) Rockets over (7) Suns in 5

(3) Nuggets over (6) Lakers in 5

(4) Spurs over (5) Timberwolves in 7

Second Round

(1) Knicks over (4) Magic in 6

(2) Pistons over (3) Celtics in 7

(1) Thunder over (4) Spurs in 5

(2) Rockets over (3) Nuggets in 7

Conference Finals

(1) Knicks over (2) Pistons in 7

(1) Thunder over (2) Rockets in 6

NBA Finals

(1) Thunder over (1) Knicks in 5

NBA Rankings - 29 Nov

The Oklahoma City Thunder have followed up on their championship last year with a blistering 19-1 start to the new season, which lands them in first place in my first rankings of the regular season. The Houston Rockets are not far behind, while the top 4 teams all come from the West. Toronto has been the biggest surprise so far, projected to finish in the running for the #1 pick, but currently looking at the #3 seed in the East. Here are my full current rankings and playoff picks:

				Record		Proj
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	Seed
1	1	Oklahoma City	-11.38	19	1	69	13	W1
2	13	Houston	-11.14	12	4	67	15	W2
3	2	Denver	-7.327	13	5	59	23	W3
4	18	San Antonio	-5.505	13	5	55	27	W4
5	20	Miami	-5.283	13	6	55	27	E2
6	7	Orlando	-4.825	12	8	53	29	E4
7	3	New York	-4.538	12	6	53	29	E5
8	19	Detroit	-4.501	15	4	56	26	E1
9	27	Toronto	-4.385	14	5	54	28	E3
10	4	Cleveland	-3.173	12	8	50	32	E6
11	6	LA Lakers	-3.094	14	4	52	30	W5
12	15	Boston	-2.982	10	8	48	34	E7
13	21	Phoenix	-2.304	12	8	46	36	W6
14	16	Minnesota	-2.143	10	8	46	36	W7
15	17	Golden State	-1.686	10	10	44	38	W8
16	9	Atlanta	-1.545	12	8	46	36	E8
17	25	Portland	-0.052	8	11	41	41	W9
18	28	Philadelphia	-5E-04	10	8	42	40	E9
19	23	Chicago	2.1912	9	9	37	45	E10
20	11	Memphis	2.873	8	12	33	49	W10
21	10	Milwaukee	2.907	8	12	34	48
22	5	LA Clippers	4.8576	5	14	27	55
23	22	Charlotte	5.5259	5	14	25	57
24	26	Utah	5.5435	6	12	26	56
25	12	Sacramento	6.6226	5	15	24	58
26	14	Dallas	6.8153	5	15	21	61
27	30	Brooklyn	7.8628	3	15	20	62
28	8	Indiana	8.4265	3	16	18	64
29	24	New Orleans	8.6716	3	16	18	64
30	29	Washington	12.218	2	16	12	70

Playoff Picks

Play In

(7) Celtics over (8) Hawks

(9) 76ers over (10) Bulls

(8) Hawks over (9) 76ers

(7) Timberwolves over (8) Warriors

(9) Trail Blazers over (10) Grizzlies

(8) Warriors over (9) Trail Blazers

First Round

(1) Pistons over (8) Hawks in 6

(2) Heat over (7) Celtics in 7

(3) Raptors over (6) Cavaliers in 7

(4) Magic over (5) Knicks in 7

(1) Thunder over (8) Warriors in 4

(2) Rockets over (7) Timberwolves in 5

(3) Nuggets over (6) Suns in 6

(4) Spurs over (5) Lakers in 7

Second Round

(1) Pistons over (4) Magic in 7

(2) Heat over (3) Raptors in 7

(1) Thunder over (4) Spurs in 6

(2) Rockets over (3) Nuggets in 6

Conference Finals

(2) Heat over (1) Pistons in 7

(1) Thunder over (2) Rockets in 7

NBA Finals

(1) Thunder over (2) Heat in 6