NBA Playoff Odds - 2026

The playoff field is finally set, and games will begin later today on the journey to crown this season's NBA champion, with the defending champions as the clear favorite to repeat. Using the results of every game from this season, and after calculating the odds of any possible playoff scenario, I've come up with each team's odds of advancing through this season's playoffs and ending up with the title, and have included my own picks as well.

Odds of Winning First Round

(1) Thunder - 95.25%

(2) Spurs - 94.2%

(1) Pistons - 90.3%

(2) Celtics - 90.2%

(3) Knicks - 73.6%

(5) Rockets - 68.1%

(3) Nuggets - 66.8%

(4) Cavaliers - 62.3%

(5) Raptors - 37.7%

(6) Timberwolves - 33.2%

(4) Lakers - 31.9%

(6) Hawks - 26.4%

(7) 76ers - 9.8%

(8) Magic - 9.7%

(7) Trail Blazers - 5.8%

(8) Suns - 4.75%

The only lower seed that is favored in the first round is Houston, who is facing a Lakers team with multiple injuries and is far worse than its record would suggest, even when healthy.

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

(1) Thunder - 84.9%

(2) Spurs - 73.8%

(1) Pistons - 71.0%

(2) Celtics - 62.9%

(3) Knicks - 29.3%

(3) Nuggets - 19.1%

(4) Cavaliers - 18.1%

(5) Rockets - 11.2%

(5) Raptors - 8.0%

(6) Timberwolves - 5.9%

(6) Hawks - 5.6%

(8) Magic - 2.9%

(4) Lakers - 2.4%

(7) 76ers - 2.2%

(8) Suns - 1.6%

(7) Trail Blazers - 1.3%

The top seeds in each conference are heavy favorites to reach the Conference Finals, but several other teams have at least a chance.

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

(1) Thunder - 62.2%

(1) Pistons - 41.5%

(2) Celtics - 35.8%

(2) Spurs - 28.9%

(3) Knicks - 13.1%

(4) Cavaliers - 5.6%

(3) Nuggets - 3.9%

(5) Rockets - 3.6%

(5) Raptors - 1.8%

(6) Hawks - 1.4%

(6) Timberwolves - 0.7%

(4) Lakers - 0.415%

(8) Magic - 0.411%

(7) 76ers - 0.34%

(8) Suns - 0.26%

(7) Trail Blazers - 0.07%

Only the Spurs really threaten the Thunder in the West, while there are 3 or possibly 4 teams in the East with a realistic shot.

Odds of Winning NBA Championship

(1) Thunder - 48.2%

(2) Spurs - 18.3%

(1) Pistons - 14.1%

(2) Celtics - 12.1%

(3) Knicks - 3.0%

(3) Nuggets - 1.4%

(5) Rockets - 1.3%

(4) Cavaliers - 0.9%

(5) Raptors - 0.18%

(6) Timberwolves - 0.16%

(6) Hawks - 0.13%

(4) Lakers - 0.08%

(8) Suns - 0.05%

(8) Magic - 0.023%

(7) 76ers - 0.019%

(7) Trail Blazers - 0.008%

Oklahoma City is the favorite again by a wide margin, but it's much smaller than last year, when they had a 65.8% chance of winning it all. If the Spurs can defeat the Thunder, their odds of winning the Finals are 63.5%, as they would have home court over any team in the East.

My Picks

First Round

(1) Pistons over (8) Magic in 5

(2) Celtics over (7) 76ers in 4

(3) Knicks over (6) Hawks in 6

(5) Raptors over (4) Cavaliers in 6

(1) Thunder over (8) Suns in 6

(2) Spurs over (7) Trail Blazers in 5

(3) Nuggets over (6) Timberwolves in 4

(5) Rockets over (4) Lakers in 6

Second Round

(1) Pistons over (5) Raptors in 5

(2) Celtics over (3) Knicks in 5

(1) Thunder over (5) Rockets in 5

(2) Spurs over (3) Nuggets in 5

Conference Finals

(2) Celtics over (1) Pistons in 6

(1) Thunder over (2) Spurs in 7

NBA Finals

(1) Thunder over (2) Celtics in 7

In a matchup of the 2 most recent champions, the Thunder become the first team to repeat since the 2018 Warriors, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander wins his second straight Finals MVP.