NBA Playoff Odds - 2026

The playoff field is finally set, and games will begin later today on the journey to crown this season's NBA champion, with the defending champions as the clear favorite to repeat. Using the results of every game from this season, and after calculating the odds of any possible playoff scenario, I've come up with each team's odds of advancing through this season's playoffs and ending up with the title, and have included my own picks as well.

Odds of Winning First Round

(1) Thunder - 95.25%

(2) Spurs - 94.2%

(1) Pistons - 90.3%

(2) Celtics - 90.2%

(3) Knicks - 73.6%

(5) Rockets - 68.1%

(3) Nuggets - 66.8%

(4) Cavaliers - 62.3%

(5) Raptors - 37.7%

(6) Timberwolves - 33.2%

(4) Lakers - 31.9%

(6) Hawks - 26.4%

(7) 76ers - 9.8%

(8) Magic - 9.7%

(7) Trail Blazers - 5.8%

(8) Suns - 4.75%

The only lower seed that is favored in the first round is Houston, who is facing a Lakers team with multiple injuries and is far worse than its record would suggest, even when healthy.

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

(1) Thunder - 84.9%

(2) Spurs - 73.8%

(1) Pistons - 71.0%

(2) Celtics - 62.9%

(3) Knicks - 29.3%

(3) Nuggets - 19.1%

(4) Cavaliers - 18.1%

(5) Rockets - 11.2%

(5) Raptors - 8.0%

(6) Timberwolves - 5.9%

(6) Hawks - 5.6%

(8) Magic - 2.9%

(4) Lakers - 2.4%

(7) 76ers - 2.2%

(8) Suns - 1.6%

(7) Trail Blazers - 1.3%

The top seeds in each conference are heavy favorites to reach the Conference Finals, but several other teams have at least a chance.

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

(1) Thunder - 62.2%

(1) Pistons - 41.5%

(2) Celtics - 35.8%

(2) Spurs - 28.9%

(3) Knicks - 13.1%

(4) Cavaliers - 5.6%

(3) Nuggets - 3.9%

(5) Rockets - 3.6%

(5) Raptors - 1.8%

(6) Hawks - 1.4%

(6) Timberwolves - 0.7%

(4) Lakers - 0.415%

(8) Magic - 0.411%

(7) 76ers - 0.34%

(8) Suns - 0.26%

(7) Trail Blazers - 0.07%

Only the Spurs really threaten the Thunder in the West, while there are 3 or possibly 4 teams in the East with a realistic shot.

Odds of Winning NBA Championship

(1) Thunder - 48.2%

(2) Spurs - 18.3%

(1) Pistons - 14.1%

(2) Celtics - 12.1%

(3) Knicks - 3.0%

(3) Nuggets - 1.4%

(5) Rockets - 1.3%

(4) Cavaliers - 0.9%

(5) Raptors - 0.18%

(6) Timberwolves - 0.16%

(6) Hawks - 0.13%

(4) Lakers - 0.08%

(8) Suns - 0.05%

(8) Magic - 0.023%

(7) 76ers - 0.019%

(7) Trail Blazers - 0.008%

Oklahoma City is the favorite again by a wide margin, but it's much smaller than last year, when they had a 65.8% chance of winning it all. If the Spurs can defeat the Thunder, their odds of winning the Finals are 63.5%, as they would have home court over any team in the East.

My Picks

First Round

(1) Pistons over (8) Magic in 5

(2) Celtics over (7) 76ers in 4

(3) Knicks over (6) Hawks in 6

(5) Raptors over (4) Cavaliers in 6

(1) Thunder over (8) Suns in 6

(2) Spurs over (7) Trail Blazers in 5

(3) Nuggets over (6) Timberwolves in 4

(5) Rockets over (4) Lakers in 6

Second Round

(1) Pistons over (5) Raptors in 5

(2) Celtics over (3) Knicks in 5

(1) Thunder over (5) Rockets in 5

(2) Spurs over (3) Nuggets in 5

Conference Finals

(2) Celtics over (1) Pistons in 6

(1) Thunder over (2) Spurs in 7

NBA Finals

(1) Thunder over (2) Celtics in 7

In a matchup of the 2 most recent champions, the Thunder become the first team to repeat since the 2018 Warriors, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander wins his second straight Finals MVP.

NBA Rankings - 29 Nov

The Oklahoma City Thunder have followed up on their championship last year with a blistering 19-1 start to the new season, which lands them in first place in my first rankings of the regular season. The Houston Rockets are not far behind, while the top 4 teams all come from the West. Toronto has been the biggest surprise so far, projected to finish in the running for the #1 pick, but currently looking at the #3 seed in the East. Here are my full current rankings and playoff picks:

				Record		Proj
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	Seed
1	1	Oklahoma City	-11.38	19	1	69	13	W1
2	13	Houston	-11.14	12	4	67	15	W2
3	2	Denver	-7.327	13	5	59	23	W3
4	18	San Antonio	-5.505	13	5	55	27	W4
5	20	Miami	-5.283	13	6	55	27	E2
6	7	Orlando	-4.825	12	8	53	29	E4
7	3	New York	-4.538	12	6	53	29	E5
8	19	Detroit	-4.501	15	4	56	26	E1
9	27	Toronto	-4.385	14	5	54	28	E3
10	4	Cleveland	-3.173	12	8	50	32	E6
11	6	LA Lakers	-3.094	14	4	52	30	W5
12	15	Boston	-2.982	10	8	48	34	E7
13	21	Phoenix	-2.304	12	8	46	36	W6
14	16	Minnesota	-2.143	10	8	46	36	W7
15	17	Golden State	-1.686	10	10	44	38	W8
16	9	Atlanta	-1.545	12	8	46	36	E8
17	25	Portland	-0.052	8	11	41	41	W9
18	28	Philadelphia	-5E-04	10	8	42	40	E9
19	23	Chicago	2.1912	9	9	37	45	E10
20	11	Memphis	2.873	8	12	33	49	W10
21	10	Milwaukee	2.907	8	12	34	48
22	5	LA Clippers	4.8576	5	14	27	55
23	22	Charlotte	5.5259	5	14	25	57
24	26	Utah	5.5435	6	12	26	56
25	12	Sacramento	6.6226	5	15	24	58
26	14	Dallas	6.8153	5	15	21	61
27	30	Brooklyn	7.8628	3	15	20	62
28	8	Indiana	8.4265	3	16	18	64
29	24	New Orleans	8.6716	3	16	18	64
30	29	Washington	12.218	2	16	12	70

Playoff Picks

Play In

(7) Celtics over (8) Hawks

(9) 76ers over (10) Bulls

(8) Hawks over (9) 76ers

(7) Timberwolves over (8) Warriors

(9) Trail Blazers over (10) Grizzlies

(8) Warriors over (9) Trail Blazers

First Round

(1) Pistons over (8) Hawks in 6

(2) Heat over (7) Celtics in 7

(3) Raptors over (6) Cavaliers in 7

(4) Magic over (5) Knicks in 7

(1) Thunder over (8) Warriors in 4

(2) Rockets over (7) Timberwolves in 5

(3) Nuggets over (6) Suns in 6

(4) Spurs over (5) Lakers in 7

Second Round

(1) Pistons over (4) Magic in 7

(2) Heat over (3) Raptors in 7

(1) Thunder over (4) Spurs in 6

(2) Rockets over (3) Nuggets in 6

Conference Finals

(2) Heat over (1) Pistons in 7

(1) Thunder over (2) Rockets in 7

NBA Finals

(1) Thunder over (2) Heat in 6

NBA Rankings - 23 Mar

The Houston Rockets have been the hottest team in the league this month, winning 7 in a row and 9 of their last 10 to move into position to threaten for the final play-in spot, currently held by Golden State. Toronto seems to have given up, losing 9 in a row, while the 76ers have fallen all the way to #8 in the East with Joel Embiid out with an injury. Here are my full current rankings and playoff picks:

				Record		Proj
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	Seed
1	1	Boston	-9.546	56	14	66	16	E1
2	2	Oklahoma City	-6.523	49	20	58	24	W1
3	3	Minnesota	-6.346	48	22	57	25	W3
4	5	Denver	-4.719	49	21	57	25	W2
5	6	New Orleans	-4.502	43	27	51	31	W5
6	4	LA Clippers	-4.015	44	25	52	30	W4
7	9	New York	-3.313	41	28	49	33	E5
8	7	Cleveland	-3	43	27	51	31	E3
9	8	Milwaukee	-2.834	45	25	52	30	E2
10	11	Phoenix	-2.092	41	29	46	36	W8
11	10	Golden State	-2.042	36	33	43	39	W10
12	15	Indiana	-1.969	40	31	46	36	E6
13	14	Sacramento	-1.665	40	29	47	35	W7
14	13	Orlando	-1.614	42	28	49	33	E4
15	16	Dallas	-1.397	41	29	48	34	W6
16	18	Houston	-1.133	34	35	41	41
17	12	Philadelphia	-0.954	38	32	44	38	E8
18	19	LA Lakers	-0.3	38	32	44	38	W9
19	17	Miami	0.2079	38	32	45	37	E7
20	20	Chicago	1.9019	34	36	39	43	E9
21	22	Atlanta	2.1083	30	39	36	46	E10
22	21	Brooklyn	2.371	26	44	32	50
23	23	Utah	2.8678	29	41	33	49
24	24	Toronto	4.494	23	47	27	55
25	25	Memphis	5.331	24	47	28	54
26	27	San Antonio	5.9415	15	55	18	64
27	26	Portland	6.4577	19	51	22	60
28	28	Detroit	8.0822	12	58	15	67
29	29	Washington	8.8261	12	58	15	67
30	30	Charlotte	9.2199	17	52	19	63

Playoff Picks

Play In

(7) Heat over (8) 76ers

(9) Bulls over (10) Hawks

(9) Bulls over (8) 76ers

(7) Kings over (8) Suns

(10) Warriors over (9) Lakers

(8) Suns over (10) Warriors

First Round

(1) Celtics over (9) Bulls in 4

(2) Bucks over (7) Heat in 6

(6) Pacers over (3) Cavaliers in 7

(4) Magic over (5) Knicks in 6

(1) Thunder over (8) Suns in 5

(7) Kings over (2) Nuggets in 7

(3) Timberwolves over (6) Mavericks in 5

(5) Pelicans over (4) Clippers in 6

Second Round

(1) Celtics over (4) Magic in 5

(6) Pacers over (2) Bucks in 7

(1) Thunder over (5) Pelicans in 7

(3) Timberwolves over (7) Kings in 7

Conference Finals

(1) Celtics over (6) Pacers in 5

(3) Timberwolves over (1) Thunder in 7

NBA Finals

(1) Celtics over (3) Timberwolves in 7