NBA Playoff Odds and MVP Rankings

The Conference Finals begin tomorrow, with only 1 of the 3 teams that started out with the best odds is still alive, with Cleveland and Boston bowing out in round 2 while dealing with injuries. Here are each remaining team's odds of making the Finals and of winning the Finals, and the top 4 Finals MVP favorites, along with a backup choice for each team:

Odds of Making NBA Finals

(1) Thunder - 90.7% (+7.9)

(3) Knicks - 59.5% (+56.1)

(4) Pacers - 40.5% (+39.6)

(6) Timberwolves - 9.3% (+3.8)

The Western Conference played out how I expected, so neither team's odds changed that much, but I expected the Celtics and Cavaliers to be the final teams in the East, so New York and Indiana have much better odds of reaching the Finals than they did a month ago.

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

(1) Thunder - 87.3% (+21.5)

(6) Timberwolves - 6.1% (+4.5)

(3) Knicks - 4.5% (+4.1)

(4) Pacers - 2.8% (+2.7)

Other than the Thunder, these teams were all big longshots to win it all originally, and while those 3 have seen their odds improve a bit, the Thunder are huge favorites to win their first title in Oklahoma, and the franchise's first title since they won in 1979 as the Supersonics.

Most Valuable Player

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - PG - OKC

29.0 Pts (#5), 5.9 Reb, 6.4 Ast (#7), 1.5 Stl (#13), 0.7 Blk, .478 FG%, .293 3P%, .854 FT%

2. Jalen Brunson - PG - NYK

28.8 Pts (#6), 3.9 Reb, 7.7 Ast (#5), 0.4 Stl, 0.3 Blk, .440 FG%, .363 3P%, .819 FT%

3. Tyrese Haliburton - PG - IND

17.5 Pts, 5.5 Reb, 9.3 Ast (#1), 0.7 Stl, 0.9 Blk, .474 FG%, .338 3P%, .794 FT%

4. Anthony Edwards - SG - MIN

26.5 Pts (#8), 8.0 Reb (#16), 5.9 Ast (#10), 1.5 Stl (#14), 0.8 Blk, .445 FG%, .385 3P%, .737 FT%

Honorable Mention: Julius Randle - PF - MIN, Jalen Williams - SG - OKC, Karl-Anthony Towns - C - NYK, TJ McConnell - PG - IND

NBA MVP Rankings - 18 Nov

We are nearly a month into the NBA season, so today I am releasing my initial MVP rankings for the season so far. The top 3 have a little separation over the rest of the field, but there is a lot of basketball left to play, so anyone on this list, and many who aren't, could still make a move on this list, though it would require a huge collapse by Jokic and the Nuggets for him to not deserve the award in my opinion. I've also included my top 5 for Rookie of the Year so far, and 6 changes in the All-Time Top 100 player rankings. Enjoy!

Most Valuable Player

1. Nikola Jokic - C - DEN

29.7 Pts (#5), 14.1 Reb (#1), 9.2 Ast (#3), 1.0 Stl, 0.8 Blk, .573 FG% (#12), .300 3P%, .816 FT%

2. Joel Embiid - C - PHI

31.9 Pts (#1), 11.1 Reb (#7), 6.0 Ast (#15), 1.0 Stl, 1.6 Blk (#13), .506 FG%, .310 3P%, .884 FT% (#19)

3. Luka Doncic - PG - DAL

30.7 Pts (#4), 7.8 Reb, 8.1 Ast (#5), 1.1 Stl, 0.4 Blk, .502 FG%, .420 3P%, .761 FT%

4. Tyrese Haliburton - PG - IND

24.7 Pts (#14), 4.2 Reb, 12.5 Ast (#1), 1.1 Stl, 0.7 Blk, .528 FG%, .436 3P%, .932 FT% (#7)

5. Giannis Antetokounmpo - PF - MIL

28.3 Pts (#8), 9.5 Reb (#15), 4.1 Ast, 0.9 Stl, 1.2 Blk, .583 FG% (#10), .250 3P%, .635 FT%

6. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - PG - OKC

28.8 Pts (#7), 6.5 Reb, 6.0 Ast (#16), 2.6 Stl (#1), 0.7 Blk, .511 FG%, .326 3P%, .919 FT% (#10)

7. Tyrese Maxey - PG - PHI

26.9 Pts (#10), 5.0 Reb, 6.8 Ast (#11), 0.9 Stl, 0.8 Blk, .481 FG%, .433 3P%, .951 FT% (#2)

8. LeBron James - PF - LAL

25.5 Pts (#13), 8.3 Reb, 6.3 Ast (#14), 1.6 Stl (#12), 0.8 Blk, .572 FG% (#14), .397 3P%, .681 FT%

9. Jayson Tatum - PF - BOS

27.5 Pts (#9), 8.7 Reb (#20), 3.9 Ast, 1.3 Stl, 0.2 Blk, .502 FG%, .367 3P%, .794 FT%

10. Trae Young - PG - ATL

23.4 Pts, 2.6 Reb, 11.1 Ast (#2), 1.5 Stl (#15), 0.0 Blk, .356 FG%, .282 3P%, .898 FT% (#15)

Honorable Mention: Kevin Durant - PF - PHX, Domantas Sabonis - C - SAC, Stephen Curry - PG - GSW, Anthony Davis - C - LAL

Rookie of the Year

1. Victor Wembanyama - PF - SAS

19.3 Pts, 9.3 Reb (#17), 2.3 Ast, 1.1 Stl, 2.2 Blk (#4), .436 FG%, .279 3P%, .771 FT%

2. Ausar Thompson - SF - DET

11.8 Pts, 10.3 Reb (#10), 3.5 Ast, 1.2 Stl, 1.8 Blk (#7), .436 FG%, .143 3P%, .692 FT%

3. Chet Holmgren - C - OKC

15.5 Pts, 7.8 Reb, 2.6 Ast, 0.9 Stl, 2.2 Blk (#5), .529 FG%, .442 3P%, .911 FT% (#13)

4. Keyonte George - PG - UTA

8.6 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 4.9 Ast, 0.4 Stl, 0.2 Blk, .393 FG%, .327 3P%, .800 FT%

5. Dereck Lively II - C - DAL

9.1 Pts, 7.1 Reb, 1.2 Ast, 0.6 Stl, 1.1 Blk, .729 FG%, .000 3P%, .636 FT%

All-Time Player Rank Changes

Kevin Durant has passed Bob Cousy to move up to #15

Giannis Antetokounmpo has passed Isiah Thomas to move up to #35

Nikola Jokic has passed Dwight Howard, John Havlicek, Bob Pettit, and Allen Iverson to move up to #39

Anthony Davis has passed Damian Lillard to move up to #56

Kyrie Irving has passed Alex English to move up to #71

Jimmy Butler has passed Gus Williams, Dennis Rodman, and Tom Heinsohn to move up to #88

NBA All-Stars 2023

The NBA All-Star Game will take place this weekend, and while most of the players who were selected belong there, there are always several snubs, as well as some players who just don't belong. Using my player rating formula, these are the players who deserve to be All-Star starters and reserves for their play so far this season, with actual starters in bold and actual reserves in italics:

Eastern Conference

Starters

PF - Giannis Antetokounmpo - MIL

PF - Jayson Tatum - BOS

C - Joel Embiid - PHI

PG - Trae Young - ATL

PG - Tyrese Haliburton - IND

Trae Young wasn't even selected to the All-Star team, even though he's the best guard in the East right now. Embiid and Haliburton should have been voted starters (Embiid was named an injury-replacement starter), rather than Kevin Durant (who is injured and won't play), Kyrie Irving (who is a borderline reserve), and Donovan Mitchell (deserving All-Star, should be a reserve).

Reserves

PF - Kevin Durant - BKN*

PF - Julius Randle - NYK

SF - DeMar DeRozan - CHI

PG - James Harden - PHI

PG - Darius Garland - CLE

PG - Jalen Brunson - NYK

SG - Donovan Mitchell - CLE

C - Kristaps Porzingis - WAS (injury replacement)

Bam Adebayo, Jrue Holiday, Pascal Siakim, and Jaylen Brown are the reserves I would leave off the team, though the first 3 on that list are all right on the edge of being reserves.

Western Conference

Starters

C - Nikola Jokic - DEN

PF - LeBron James - LAL

C - Domantas Sabonis - SAC

PG - Luka Doncic - DAL

PG - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - OKC

Ja Morant and Lauri Markkanen were named as injury-replacement starters for Stephen Curry and Zion Williamson, I would have left both on the bench and put Sabonis and SGA in the starting lineup, but I understand Markkanen being named a starter on his home court. Williamson should not be on the All-Star team, he has missed far too many games.

Reserves

C - Anthony Davis - LAL

SF - Lauri Markkanen - UTA

C - Deandre Ayton - PHX

PG - Damian Lillard - POR

PG - Ja Morant - MEM

PG - Stephen Curry - GSW*

PG - De'Aaron Fox - SAC

PG - Russell Westbrook - LAL (injury replacement)

Anthony Edwards, Paul George, and Jaren Jackson Jr are the reserves I would leave off the team, though Edwards is the next player I would choose behind the ones listed above. Davis has missed a lot of games, but has been so dominant when he plays that he deserves a spot, and Ayton has come on very strong over the past several weeks to keep Phoenix afloat as they fought injuries.

All-Time Player Rank Changes

Chris Paul has passed Russell Westbrook back to move up to #17

Giannis Antetokounmpo has passed Dwight Howard to move up to #41

Damian Lillard has passed George McGinnis and Paul Pierce to move up to #56

Kawhi Leonard has passed Ben Wallace and Bob McAdoo to move up to #64

Draymond Green has passed Carmelo Anthony to move up to #71

NBA MVP Rankings - 3 Dec

As Boston continues to dominate the early season, their star player, Jayson Tatum, continues to sit atop the MVP leaderboard at the quarter-point of the season. There are 4 players who have joined the top 10 since two weeks ago, including one of Tatum's teammates and 2 former MVP winners. Here are my full current MVP rankings, with previous rank in parentheses:

Most Valuable Player

1 (1) Jayson Tatum - PF - BOS

30.8 Pts (#5), 8.0 Reb, 4.4 Ast, 1.1 Blk, .479 FG%, .354 3P%, .866 FT%

2 (2) Giannis Antetokounmpo - PF - MIL

31.8 Pts (#2), 11.2 Reb (#5), 5.5 Ast, 1.0 Blk, .542 FG% (#20), .220 3P%, .614 FT%

3 (8) Devin Booker - SG - PHX

29.5 Pts (#7), 5.2 Reb, 5.9 Ast, 1.1 Stl, .495 FG%, .390 3P%, .866 FT%

4 (10) Nikola Jokic - C - DEN

22.7 Pts (#20), 9.8 Reb (#13), 8.9 Ast (#3), 1.3 Stl (#19), .631 FG% (#4), .349 3P%, .826 FT%

5 (4) Trae Young - PG - ATL

27.8 Pts (#10), 2.9 Reb, 9.6 Ast (#2), .411 FG%, .303 3P%, .899 FT% (#11)

6 (NR) Jaylen Brown - SF - BOS

26.6 Pts (#12), 6.9 Reb, 3.5 Ast, 1.0 Stl, .510 FG%, .345 3P%, .836 FT%

7 (NR) Stephen Curry - PG - GSW

30.8 Pts (#4), 6.9 Reb, 7.0 Ast (#11), 1.0 Stl, .513 FG%, .439 3P% (#18), .909 FT% (#9)

8 (6) Ja Morant - PG - MEM

28.2 Pts (#9), 6.4 Reb, 7.3 Ast (#9), 1.1 Stl, .460 FG%, .366 3P%, .743 FT%

9 (NR) Kevin Durant - PF - BKN

29.8 Pts (#6), 6.6 Reb, 5.4 Ast, 1.8 Blk (#6), .554 FG% (#18), .345 3P%, .921 FT% (#3)

10 (NR) Tyrese Haliburton - PG - IND

19.1 Pts, 4.7 Reb, 10.9 Ast (#1), 1.8 Stl (#4), .461 FG%, .369 3P%, .839 FT%

Honorable Mention: Luka Doncic - PG - DAL, Donovan Mitchell - SG - CLE, Joel Embiid - C - PHI, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - SG - OKC, Anthony Davis - C - LAL

All-Time Player Rank Changes

Anthony Davis has passed Draymond Green to move up to #70

John Wall has passed Gus Williams, Dennis Rodman, and Tom Heinsohn to move up to #87