Three games have now been played in each first round series, with three teams in the East on the verge of a sweep at 3-0, and the other 5 series at 2-1, with only Utah among the lower seeds leading their series. I've recalculated each team's odds of advancing based on recent performance and their path to getting out of the first round, with change from pre-playoff odds in parentheses:
Odds of Winning First Round
1. Raptors - 99.6% (+10.4)
2. Celtics - 98.6% (+23.3)
3. Bucks - 97.0% (+0.3)
4. Heat - 96.2% (+40.1)
5. Lakers - 93.0% (+3.7)
6. Clippers - 78.0% (+13.1)
7. Jazz - 75.8% (+23.4)
8. Rockets - 71.6% (+21.1)
9. Thunder - 28.4% (-21.1)
10. Nuggets - 24.2% (-23.4)
11. Mavericks - 22.0% (-13.1)
12. Trail Blazers - 7.0% (-1.1)
13. Pacers - 3.8% (-40.1)
14. Magic - 3.0% (-0.3)
15. 76ers - 1.4% (-23.3)
16. Nets - 0.4% (-10.4)
The Heat have done the most to improve their odds so far, taking what looked like an even match going in and taking a 3-0 lead against the higher seed. My pick of the series going 7 games may be in trouble, but the Heat winning is still intact. The only team I picked to win this round that is currently trailing is Oklahoma City, who has the best odds of a comeback of any team left.
Odds of Reaching Conference Finals
1. Bucks - 83.1% (-3.1)
2. Lakers - 68.7% (+3.0)
3. Clippers - 60.3% (+8.5)
4. Raptors - 52.0% (+0.4)
5. Celtics - 47.7% (+8.0)
6. Rockets - 21.8% (+5.9)
7. Jazz - 20.9% (+7.5)
8. Heat - 15.8% (+7.8)
9. Mavericks - 14.2% (-9.3)
10. Thunder - 7.7% (-7.7)
11. Nuggets - 4.7% (-6.6)
12. Trail Blazers - 1.9% (-0.3)
13. Magic - 0.7% (-0.2)
14. Pacers - 0.4% (-4.5)
15. 76ers - 0.3% (-6.7)
The Nets' odds of winning 2 rounds are so miniscule now that I'm not including them. Milwaukee is the only current leader whose odds took a hit, mostly due to their poor performance in game 1, but they are still a huge favorite to reach the conference finals again. Toronto didn't see much of a jump even with their 3-0 lead, because the Celtics are doing the same thing and they will be meeting in the next round.
Odds of Reaching NBA Finals
1. Bucks - 55.9% (-7.2)
2. Lakers - 39.3% (+1.3)
3. Clippers - 35.8% (+3.9)
4. Raptors - 21.1% (+2.7)
5. Celtics - 18.6% (+5.0)
6. Rockets - 7.5% (+2.0)
7. Jazz - 7.1% (+2.8)
8. Mavericks - 6.5% (-4.6)
9. Heat - 4.3% (+1.9)
10. Thunder - 2.4% (-2.9)
11. Nuggets - 1.2% (-2.2)
12. Trail Blazers - 0.3% (-0.1)
Toronto and Boston are creeping up on the Bucks in the East, but Milwaukee is still the most likely to represent the East. The LA teams are nearly equal in the West, but the other 6 teams all still have a chance at least, while the 4 teams currently trailing in the East are pretty much guaranteed not to reach the Finals at this point.
Odds of Winning Championship
1. Bucks - 39.4% (-6.6)
2. Lakers - 16.4% (+1.1)
3. Clippers - 15.6% (+1.8)
4. Raptors - 11.6% (+1.8)
5. Celtics - 9.9% (+2.9)
6. Mavericks - 2.0% (-1.3)
7. Rockets - 1.6% (+0.5)
8. Jazz - 1.5% (+0.7)
9. Heat - 1.4% (+0.7)
10. Thunder - 0.4% (-0.6)
11. Nuggets - 0.2% (-0.4)
Milwaukee is still the favorite, but they are moving closer to the group of 4 contenders, 2 each from the East and West, below them. There are 6 other teams with a chance, but none is very likely.
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