NBA Playoff Odds

 Now that the playoff matchups are (pretty much) set, it's time to see which teams are favored to make it through each round of the playoffs that start Monday, and how much their chances changed over the past 2 weeks after the conclusion of the seeding games.

Odds of Winning Play-In

Trail Blazers - 75.2% (+68.0)

Grizzlies - 24.8% (-36.1)

Portland and Memphis will be playing this afternoon for the right to play the Lakers in the first round. If Memphis wins today, they will play again tomorrow, with the winner facing LA on Tuesday in Game 1 of the first round. If Portland wins today, the Sunday game will be skipped. Portland has an obvious advantage in having to win only once in two tries, but it's not a foregone conclusion.

Odds of Winning First Round

1. Bucks - 96.7% (-1.5)

2. Lakers - 89.3% (-5.2)

3. Raptors - 89.2% (+1.5)

4. Celtics - 75.3% (-1.0)

5. Clippers - 64.9% (-0.8)

6. Heat - 56.1% (+3.0)

7. Jazz - 52.4% (+6.8)

8. Rockets - 50.5% (+7.4)

9. Thunder - 49.5% (+4.7)

10. Nuggets - 47.6% (+4.3)

11. Pacers - 43.9% (+9.9)

12. Mavericks - 35.1% (-22.2)

13. 76ers - 24.7% (-13.8)

14. Nets - 10.8% (+3.8)

15. Trail Blazers - 8.1% (+7.8)

16. Magic - 3.3% (-1.9)

17. Grizzlies - 2.6% (-0.5)

The only top contender to see its odds increase in the bubble was Toronto, who played hard to clinch the 2-seed and the much easier opponent it came with. Dallas ended up at the bottom of the middle section of the West, which matches them up with the Clippers in the first round, which sent their odds tumbling, and the Sixers found themselves in a similar situation in the East, having to face the Celtics in the first round. Indiana had the best bubble bump, ending up #4 instead of the projected #6 in the East.

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

1. Bucks - 86.2% (-3.8)

2. Lakers - 65.7% (-7.9)

3. Clippers - 51.8% (+5.6)

4. Raptors - 51.6% (+0.7)

5. Celtics - 39.7% (-1.9)

6. Mavericks - 23.5% (-6.9)

7. Rockets - 15.9% (+2.4)

8. Thunder - 15.4% (+3.2)

9. Jazz - 13.4% (+1.6)

10. Nuggets - 11.3% (+0.4)

11. Heat - 8.0% (+2.7)

12. 76ers - 7.0% (+1.7)

13. Pacers - 4.9% (+0.1)

14. Trail Blazers - 2.2% (+2.2)

15. Nets - 1.8% (+0.7)

16. Magic - 0.9% (-0.1)

17. Grizzlies - 0.7% (+0.04)

Clinching the 2 seed in the West helped the Clippers a lot here, because the teams in the 3-6 first round series are a little weaker than Dallas, who LA faces in the first round. The Lakers took the biggest hit here, which has more to do with their performance so far in Orlando than the quality of their potential opponents.

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

1. Bucks - 63.1% (-11.1)

2. Lakers - 38.0% (-13.5)

3. Clippers - 31.9% (+10.1)

4. Raptors - 18.4% (+5.8)

5. Celtics - 13.6% (+3.6)

6. Mavericks - 11.1% (-2.1)

7. Rockets - 5.5% (+1.8)

8. Thunder - 5.3% (+1.9)

9. Jazz - 4.3% (+1.0)

10. Nuggets - 3.4% (+0.7)

11. Heat - 2.4% (+0.9)

12. Pacers - 1.2% (+0.5)

13. 76ers - 1.1% (+0.2)

14. Trail Blazers - 0.4% (+0.4)

15. Nets - 0.13% (+0.1)

16. Grizzlies - 0.118% (+0.02)

17. Magic - 0.116% (+0.1)

The Clippers are the beneficiaries of the Lakers' poor play in Orlando, bringing their odds nearly even with the season-long favorites, and they haven't even had their full team together yet, so they could be even better in the actual playoffs. Toronto and Boston saw their odds increase a little too, while Milwaukee became a little less of a sure thing, but the Bucks are still the favorites in the East.

Odds of Winning Championship

1. Bucks - 46.0% (-7.2)

2. Lakers - 15.3% (-7.8)

3. Clippers - 13.8% (+6.2)

4. Raptors - 9.8% (+4.6)

5. Celtics - 7.0% (+2.9)

6. Mavericks - 3.3% (-0.6)

7. Rockets - 1.1% (+0.4)

8. Thunder - 1.0% (+0.4)

9. Jazz - 0.8% (+0.3)

10. Heat - 0.7% (+0.4)

11. Nuggets - 0.6% (+0.2)

12. Pacers - 0.32% (+0.2)

13. 76ers - 0.29% (+0.1)

The bottom 2 teams in each conference have such small odds that I won't even include them here. The Clippers, Raptors, and Celtics all saw good increases in their chances in Orlando, while the Lakers dropped down to their tier as potential challengers to Milwaukee, who is by far the favorite to win it all. The rest of the teams on this list have a chance, but it would be a major surprise to see any of them standing alone at the end.

My Picks

First Round

(1) Bucks over (8) Magic in 4

(2) Raptors over (7) Nets in 5

(3) Celtics over (6) 76ers in 5

(5) Heat over (4) Pacers in 7

(1) Lakers over (8) Trail Blazers in 5

(2) Clippers over (7) Mavericks in 6

(6) Jazz over (3) Nuggets in 7

(5) Thunder over (4) Rockets in 7

Second Round

(1) Bucks over (5) Heat in 5

(3) Celtics over (2) Raptors in 7

(1) Lakers over (5) Thunder in 6

(2) Clippers over (6) Jazz in 5

Conference Finals

(1) Bucks over (3) Celtics in 6

(2) Clippers over (1) Lakers in 7

NBA Finals

(1) Bucks over (2) Clippers in 6