NCAA Tournament Odds - 2026

6195 games down, 67 to go until a new national champion is crowned. I've computed each team's odds of advancing through the tournament based on the results of all of those games to determine which teams are most likely to advance, and which are most likely to win it all. Here is my breakdown of the next few weeks:

Best Teams Left Out

36. Auburn

42. Indiana

43. Cincinnati

46. Oklahoma

Just like last year, there are only 4 teams in my final regular season rankings that are ranked above the bottom 4 at-large teams to make the tournament. 3 of these teams were named by the committee as being among their first four teams left out.

Worst At-Large Teams Selected

47. TCU

52. Missouri

57. UCF

69. Miami (OH)

Miami (OH) is the lowest-ranked at-large team I have ever seen, but the committee didn't feel that they could ignore a 31-0 regular season, even if it was against one of the weakest schedules in the country. Last season, the 4 teams that made this list lost in their very first game, so it's probably not smart to pick these teams.

Teams That are Better than their Seed

1. Vanderbilt

2. Iowa

3. NC State

4. SMU

These are the only 4 teams that are seeded at least 2 spots lower than their ranking would suggest this season, by far the lowest in my time posting about the tournament. These teams will generally do better than expected in the tournament, but last season's 6 teams won a total of 1 game among them, without any upsets.

Teams That are Worse than their Seed

1. Kansas

2. Miami

3. Clemson

4. TCU

5. UCF

These teams are seeded at least 2 spots higher than their ranking shows. Of last season's 5 teams on this list, none survived the first weekend, and 2 were upset by lower seeds.

Projected First Round Upsets

7.6

This number has dropped for the third straight season. Last season's projection was 8.7, with a range of 7-10, and there ended up being 7, on the low end of the range. This season's range is more likely to be between 6 and 9.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

(9) Iowa over (8) Clemson - 54.8%

(9) Utah State over (8) Villanova - 50.6%

(9) Saint Louis over (8) Georgia - 50.3%

(10) Santa Clara over (7) Kentucky - 45.8%

(10) Texas A&M over (7) Saint Mary's - 43.2%

(11) VCU over (6) North Carolina - 42.9%

(11) Texas/NC State over (6) BYU - 41.4%

(10) Missouri over (7) Miami - 41.07%

(9) TCU over (8) Ohio State - 41.06%

Of the 8 teams on last season's most likely upset list, 4 of them happened, so look here first to find your early upsets.

Most Likely #15 or #16 to Win a Game

(15) Furman over (2) UConn - 6.1%

(15) Tennessee State over (2) Iowa State - 4.0%

(15) Idaho over (2) Houston - 3.9%

(15) Queens over (2) Purdue - 2.9%

It is extremely unlikely that any of the top 8 teams will lose before the weekend, but each of the #15 has at least a small chance of winning a game.

Most Likely Cinderellas

(11) Texas/NC State - 14.7%

(10) Santa Clara - 13.8%

(11) VCU - 13.2%

(11) Miami (OH)/SMU - 12.8%

(11) South Florida - 12.7%

(12) Akron - 12.6%

(10) Texas A&M - 12.3%

(10) UCF - 11.4%

(10) Missouri - 10.1%

Last season only saw 1 double-digit seed reach the Sweet 16 (Arkansas), and they were right in the middle of my list, and the same thing happened the year before with NC State.

Projected Number of Cinderellas

1.7

Last year's number was 2.5, with only 1, the aforementioned Arkansas, actually making it, so it's unlikely that we will see more than 2 this year.

#1 Seeds in the Final Four

1.5

This is the same projection as last season, when all 4 #1 seeds made the Final Four for the first time ever. That is very unlikely to happen again, so expect one or two of them to still be standing in April.

Odds of a #1 Seed Winning the Tournament

54.1%

This is almost exactly the same as last season's 54.6% chance, which resulted in a win by Florida, who was a #1 seed. It's far from a guarantee, but there's still a very good chance of it.

Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams

(1) Duke - 80.5%

(1) Michigan - 79.8%

(1) Arizona - 78.6%

(1) Florida - 74.1%

(2) Purdue - 69.9%

(2) Houston - 67.02%

(2) Iowa State - 66.96%

(3) Illinois - 63.9%

(2) UConn - 63.5%

(3) Gonzaga - 58.7%

(4) Arkansas - 53.4%

(3) Michigan State - 53.0%

(3) Virginia - 49.3%

(5) St. John's - 45.93%

(4) Nebraska - 45.85%

(4) Alabama - 42.83%

(5) Vanderbilt - 42.76%

(4) Kansas - 40.9%

(5) Texas Tech - 37.2%

(6) Tennessee - 35.3%

(5) Wisconsin - 34.6%

(6) Louisville - 31.8%

12 of the top 16 teams on this list last year reached the Sweet Sixteen, and another was on the backup list at the bottom, so make sure to fill in most of your bracket with these teams.

Most Likely Final Four Teams

(1) Michigan - 41.9%

(1) Duke - 40.8%

(1) Arizona - 39.0%

(1) Florida - 29.1%

(2) Houston - 20.8%

(2) Purdue - 20.1%

(2) Iowa State - 19.8%

(3) Illinois - 18.4%

(2) UConn - 15.0%

(3) Gonzaga - 13.8%

(3) Michigan State- 13.2%

The #1 seeds each had at least a 30% chance of reaching the Final Four last season, the top 4 in the odds as well, and they all made it. This season all of the 1 through 3 seeds have at least a 10% chance of making it, with the exception of Virginia.

Most Likely Champions

(1) Michigan - 16.6%

(1) Duke - 15.0%

(1) Arizona - 14.0%

(1) Florida - 8.6%

(2) Houston - 5.1%

(2) Iowa State - 5.0%

(2) Purdue - 4.8%

(3) Illinois - 4.3%

(2) UConn - 2.9%

(3) Gonzaga - 2.8%

(3) Michigan State - 2.7%

Florida, who won the title last season, was #3 on this list, with 13.8% odds, and runner-up Houston was at #4. The eventual champion has appeared among the top 7 on this list for eleven straight years, so it's probably not smart to look beyond this for your champ.

Most Common Nicknames

Panthers - 3

Wildcats - 3

Tigers - 3

Aggies - 2

Cougars - 2

Bison - 2

Bulldogs - 2

Hawks (Mountain/Red) - 2

Raiders/Red - 2

There's a lot more variety in nicknames this year, after 6 different teams of Bulldogs reached the tournament last year, along with 4 Tigers.

Teams by State

Texas - 7

North Carolina - 5

California - 4

Florida - 4

New York - 4

Ohio - 4

Iowa - 3

Pennsylvania - 3

Tennessee - 3

Alabama - 2

Georgia - 2

Kentucky - 2

Michigan - 2

Missouri - 2

South Carolina - 2

Utah - 2

Virginia - 2

Arizona - 1

Arkansas - 1

Connecticut - 1

District of Columbia - 1

Hawaii - 1

Idaho - 1

Illinois - 1

Indiana - 1

Kansas - 1

Louisiana - 1

Maryland - 1

Nebraska - 1

North Dakota - 1

Washington - 1

Wisconsin - 1

As always, Texas leads the way, with a very strong showing from North Carolina as well.

My Picks

First Round Winners

(1) Duke

(8) Ohio State

(5) St. John's

(4) Kansas

(11) South Florida

(3) Michigan State

(7) UCLA

(2) UConn

(1) Florida

(9) Iowa

(5) Vanderbilt

(4) Nebraska

(11) VCU

(3) Illinois

(10) Texas A&M

(2) Houston

(1) Arizona

(8) Villanova

(5) Wisconsin

(4) Arkansas

(6) BYU

(3) Gonzaga

(7) Miami

(2) Purdue

(1) Michigan

(8) Georgia

(5) Texas Tech

(4) Alabama

(6) Tennessee

(3) Virginia

(10) Santa Clara

(2) Iowa State

Only 5 first round upset picks this year, mostly in the South Region.

Sweet 16

(1) Duke

(5) St. John's

(3) Michigan State

(7) UCLA

(1) Florida

(5) Vanderbilt

(3) Illinois

(2) Houston

(1) Arizona

(5) Wisconsin

(6) BYU

(2) Purdue

(1) Michigan

(4) Alabama

(6) Tennessee

(2) Iowa State

I've got 6 upsets picked in this round, and I'm especially liking the 5-seeds, with UCLA the closest thing to a Cinderella in sight.

Elite Eight

(1) Duke

(7) UCLA

(5) Vanderbilt

(2) Houston

(1) Arizona

(2) Purdue

(1) Michigan

(2) Iowa State

The first #1 seed goes down, and UCLA continues their unexpected run.

Final Four

(1) Duke

(2) Houston

(2) Purdue

(2) Iowa State

#1 overall seed Duke is the only #1 I am picking to reach the Final Four.

Championship

(2) Houston

(2) Iowa State

Two teams from the Big 12 face off for the title

Champion

(2) Iowa State

The Cyclones win their first-ever title, and Houston repeats as runners-up, just as they did during the early 80's with Hakeem Olajuwon.

NCAA Tournament Odds - 2025

It's time for March Madness. I've taken the results of every game from this season and plugged them into my formula, and plugged all of that data into the bracket to determine each team's chances of winning a game against any potential opponent in order to determine each team's overall odds of winning the championship in 3 weeks. Here is my breakdown of the tournament, including my own picks for the winner of each game:

Best Teams Left Out

(35) Ohio State

(42) SMU

(45) Indiana

(47) West Virginia

Only 4 teams ranked lower than these 4 were selected to the field as at-large teams, which makes this the smallest group I can recall in over a decade of posting my tourney odds. If you are filling out an NIT bracket, these are some good teams to consider.

Worst At-Large Teams Selected

(48) Texas

(51) Vanderbilt

(53) San Diego State

(55) Utah State

These are the 4 lowest-ranked at-large teams to make the field by my formula. There were 7 teams on this list last season, and 5 of them lost in their first game, including South Carolina, who was a 6-seed and was upset by an 11. The two that won their first game lost over the first weekend, so none of them reached the Sweet 16, and it's likely to be the same for these 4.

Teams that are Better than their Seed

1. Gonzaga

2. Louisville

3. VCU

4. UC San Diego

5. Kansas

6. North Carolina

There were 8 teams on this list last season, and 4 of them pulled off first-round upsets, so these teams could be dangerous, at least in the first round or two.

Teams that are Worse than their Seed

1. Memphis

2. Oregon

3. Texas A&M

4. Oklahoma

5. Utah State

Of the 11 teams on this list last season, 5 were upset during the first weekend, another lost in a play-in game, and one lost to another team on the list. These teams are ones that will most likely not make deep runs in the tournament, and could easily be gone earlier than expected.

Projected First Round Upsets

8.7

This is down from last season's projection of 9.3, and 10.7 the year before, meaning that there may not be as many upsets this Thursday and Friday. There ended up being 11 last season, just above the projection, and this season's range should be between 7 and 10.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

(9) Baylor over (8) Mississippi State - 49.8%

(12) Colorado State over (5) Memphis - 49.2%

(11) VCU over (6) BYU - 47.7%

(9) Oklahoma over (8) UConn - 45.5%

(12) UC San Diego over (5) Michigan - 43.40%

(11) San Diego State/North Carolina over (6) Ole Miss - 43.38%

(10) New Mexico over (7) Marquette - 42.6%

(9) Creighton over (8) Louisville - 42.2%

This is the shortest list of potential upsets I have ever made. Last year's list had 11 potential upsets, and 6 of them ended up happening, so these games are the best bets if you are looking for someone to unexpectedly win in the first round.

Most Likely #15 or #16 to Win a Game

(15) Bryant over (2) Michigan State - 13.3%

(15) Wofford over (2) Tennessee - 10.6%

(15) Omaha over (2) St. John's - 7.2%

(15) Robert Morris over (2) Alabama - 4.8%

It's not very likely that a #15 will win a game this year, but there is a better chance than there was last season. Any of the #2 seeds could lose, but it's extremely unlikely that any of the #1 seeds will lose their first game.

Most Likely Cinderellas

(11) VCU - 21.7%

(12) UC San Diego - 20.8%

(12) Colorado State - 18.3%

(11) San Diego State/North Carolina - 17.3%

(11) Texas/Xavier - 16.7%

(10) New Mexico - 16.4%

(10) Arkansas - 14.0%

(13) Yale - 13.3%

(12) McNeese - 13.1%

(12) Liberty - 12.5%

(10) Utah State - 11.0%

(11) Drake - 10.5%

There was only one double-digit seed that reached the Sweet 16 last year, which was NC State, who appeared right in the middle of my list. There are 12 teams with a good chance of a surprise run this weekend, but don't pick too many of them.

Projected Number of Cinderellas

2.5

This is similar to last season's projection of 2.6, which ended up with only 1 team actually making it that far, but it's likely that we'll see 2 or 3 of them this season.

#1 Seeds in the Final Four

1.5

This is up from last season's projection of 1.2, which resulted in two #1 seeds reaching the final weekend. It's once again likely that there will be one or two again this season.

Odds of a #1 Seed Winning the Tournament

54.6%

This is the highest chance in several seasons, up from 39.8% last season. The #1 seeds are all very strong this year, but there are definitely a couple of tough #2 seeds as well, so don't count them out either.

Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams

(1) Duke - 78.3%

(1) Florida - 78.0%

(1) Auburn - 75.0%

(2) Alabama - 68.8%

(1) Houston - 66.8%

(2) Tennessee - 6..3%

(2) St. John's - 57.4%

(4) Maryland - 55.5%

(2) Michigan State - 54.1%

(3) Texas Tech - 52.8%

(3) Wisconsin - 51.5%

(4) Arizona - 50.3%

(3) Iowa State - 49.1%

(3) Kentucky - 44.9%

(4) Purdue - 41.2%

(5) Clemson - 36.9%

(4) Texas A&M - 35.0%

(6) Illinois - 32.4%

(6) Missouri - 31.8%

(5) Michigan - 30.9%

(5) Oregon - 30.1%

13 of the top 16 teams on this list last season made the Sweet 16, so these are definitely the teams to look for to still be in the field next week. 

Most Likely Final Four Teams

(1) Duke - 41.3%

(1) Auburn - 39.7%

(1) Florida - 39.0%

(1) Houston - 30.2%

(2) Alabama - 22.5%

(2) Tennessee - 22.2%

(2) St. John's - 15.4%

(2) Michigan State - 14.7%

(3) Texas Tech - 12.8%

(3) Iowa State - 12.6%

(4) Maryland - 12.4%

The top 8 seeds lead the list this season, along with 3 other teams seeded just below them. 3 of last season's Final Four made my list, including 4-seed Alabama and the two finalists, Purdue and UConn.

Most Likely Champions

(1) Duke - 16.9%

(1) Auburn - 14.6%

(1) Florida - 13.8%

(1) Houston - 9.2%

(2) Alabama - 6.7%

(2) Tennessee - 5.6%

(2) St. John's - 3.3%

(2) Michigan State - 3.2%

(3) Iowa State - 2.64%

(3) Texas Tech - 2.60%

(4) Maryland - 2.5%

Last season's champion and runner-up were both in the top 3 on this list, and each of the top 3 on this list have higher odds than any team had last season of winning it all. For the past decade, the eventual champion has always appeared among the top 7 on this list.

Most Common Nicknames

Bulldogs - 6

Tigers - 4

Bears/Bruins/Grizzlies - 3

Cougars - 3

Aggies - 2

Eagles - 2

Spartans - 2

Rams - 2

Wildcats - 2

Bulldogs lead the way once again, including two (Gonzaga and Georgia) facing each other in the first round.

Teams by State

Texas - 5

Alabama - 4

California - 4

North Carolina - 4

Pennsylvania - 3

Tennessee - 3

Virginia - 3

Arizona - 2

Connecticut - 2

Illinois - 2

Iowa - 2

Kentucky - 2

Michigan - 2

Mississippi - 2

Nebraska - 2

Ohio - 2

South Carolina - 2

Utah - 2

Wisconsin - 2

Arkansas - 1

Colorado - 1

District of Columbia - 1

Florida - 1

Indiana - 1

Kansas - 1

Louisiana - 1

Maryland - 1

Missouri - 1

Montana - 1

New Mexico - 1

New York - 1

Oklahoma - 1

Oregon - 1

Rhode Island - 1

Washington - 1

Once again, Texas leads the way, with Alabama, California, and North Carolina close behind.

My Picks

First Round Winners

(1) Auburn

(9) Creighton 

(5) Michigan

(4) Texas A&M

(11) North Carolina/San Diego State

(3) Iowa State

(10) New Mexico

(2) Michigan State

(1) Florida

(9) Oklahoma

(12) Colorado State

(4) Maryland

(6) Missouri

(3) Texas Tech

(7) Kansas

(2) St. John's

(1) Duke

(9) Baylor

(5) Oregon

(4) Arizona

(6) BYU

(3) Wisconsin

(7) Saint Mary's

(2) Alabama 

(1) Houston

(8) Gonzaga

(5) Clemson

(4) Purdue

(6) Illinois

(3) Kentucky

(7) UCLA

(2) Tennessee

I am picking 6 first-round upsets, and I was very close to picking UC San Diego as well.

Sweet 16

(1) Auburn

(4) Texas A&M

(3) Iowa State

(2) Michigan State

(1) Florida

(4) Maryland

(3) Texas Tech

(2) St. John's

(1) Duke

(5) Oregon

(6) BYU

(2) Alabama

(1) Houston

(5) Clemson

(3) Kentucky

(2) Tennessee

No Cinderallas in my bracket this year, with BYU the closest thing to one. Colorado State was on my radar, but Maryland is very strong for a 4-seed.

Elite Eight

(1) Auburn

(2) Michigan State

(1) Florida

(2) St. John's

(1) Duke

(2) Alabama

(1) Houston

(2) Tennessee

I have never come close to picking straight chalk at this point, but these 8 teams have been the strongest in the country for most of the season, and I don't think that will change.

Final Four

(1) Auburn

(1) Florida

(2) Alabama

(1) Houston

I nearly picked Tennessee to beat Houston, but having only SEC teams in the Final Four would be a little too crazy.

Championship

(1) Florida

(1) Houston

Florida upsets the #1 overall seed, just as they did earlier this season.

Champions

(1) Florida

Florida has beaten Tennessee once and Alabama twice in recent weeks, and I am predicting that their hot streak leads to a championship.

NCAA Tournament Odds - 2024

6123 games down, 67 to go. The results of every game that has been played so far has been entered into my formula, and then each team's rating was plugged into the official bracket to determine each team's odds of advancing through each round and cutting down the nets in 3 weeks. Hopefully you find something here that can help you build a winning bracket.

Best Teams Left Out

(25) Saint John's

(29) Wake Forest

(31) Indiana State

(37) Villanova

(38) Cincinnati

(39) Pittsburgh

(41) Ohio State

(43) Oklahoma

These teams are usually a good bet to perform well in the NIT, although the recent trend has been to skip the lesser tournament when you get snubbed for the big one. Indiana State and Oklahoma were the two teams that I picked to make the field that didn't end up getting in, and 3 of the teams that the committee said were closest to making the field are on this list as well.

Worst At-Large Teams Selected

(66) Virginia

(55) Boise State

(52) South Carolina

(51) Utah State

(47) Northwestern

(45) Nevada

(44) Colorado State

Virginia was one of the two teams that I felt should have been left out, along with Michigan State and their 14 losses, but the Spartans are at least good enough to do something in the tournament. There are 4 Mountain West teams on this list, and though all 4 were deserving of their spots according to the committee's standards, they are among the weaker teams in the tournament, and less likely to win games than other teams in the field. All 5 teams that I included on this list last season were eliminated during the first weekend.

Teams that are Better than their Seed

1. Colorado

2. New Mexico

3. Michigan State

4. Auburn

5. BYU

6. Mississippi State

7. Grand Canyon

8. James Madison

Last year, 5 of the 10 teams on this list made deeper tournament runs than expected by their seeding, including FAU, who reached the Final Four from a 9 seed, and UConn, who won the entire tournament as a 4 seed. These are good teams to look at for upsets in the first round and beyond.

Teams that are Worse than their Seed

1. South Carolina

2. Saint Mary's

3. Kansas

4. San Diego State

5. Texas Tech

6. Texas

7. Washington State

8. Utah State

9. Virginia

10. Duquesne

11. UAB

These teams are good bets to lose earlier than expected, though last year only 2 ended up going home before they should have, while 5 lasted exactly as long as their seed projected. South Carolina is much farther from their seed than any of the others on this list.

Projected First Round Upsets

9.3

That number is actually quite low for recent tournaments. Last year's projection was 10.7, and it turned out that there were only 7 upsets in the first round, well below the projected range, which is surprising after considering how many upsets happened in later rounds. I expect this year to fall within the range of 8 to 10.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

(9) TCU over (8) Utah State - 55.4%

(9) Michigan State over (8) Mississippi State - 53.1%

(11) New Mexico over (6) Clemson - 51.7%

(10) Drake over (7) Washington State - 49.1%

(11) Oregon over (6) South Carolina - 47.7%

(9) Northwestern over (8) FAU - 46.2%

(10) Nevada over (7) Dayton - 45.4%

(12) Grand Canyon over (5) Saint Mary's - 45.3%

(9) Texas A&M over (8) Nebraska - 45.3%

(10) Virginia/Colorado State over (7) Texas - 44.3%

(11) NC State over (6) Texas Tech - 41.2%

4 of the 7 first round upsets last year were on my list, so these are the first place to look for upsets, though we will probably see a few more unexpected ones as well.

Most Likely #15 or #16 to win a Game

(15) Western Kentucky over (2) Marquette - 16.6%

(15) South Dakota State over (2) Iowa State - 12.6%

Not much chance of a huge upset this year, unlike last season, where I had three 15 seeds with at least a 20% chance of winning, one of which happened when Princeton upset Arizona, in addition to Purdue's loss to Fairleigh Dickinson.

Most Likely Cinderellas

(11) New Mexico - 27.3%

(10) Drake - 18.8%

(11) Oregon - 18.5%

(12) Grand Canyon - 18.3%

(12) McNeese - 18.1%

(11) NC State - 17.2%

(12) James Madison - 15.5%

(13) Samford - 14.3%

(10) Virginia/Colorado State - 13.0%

(10) Boise State/Colorado - 12.8%

(10) Nevada - 12.7%

Last year only 1 double-digit seed reached the Sweet 16, and that was Princeton, who was not among the most likely teams to make a deep run. The top 8 teams on this list all recently won conference tournaments, 5 of them in upsets, so they know how to win when they aren't expected to.

Projected Number of Cinderellas

2.6

This number is much lower than last year's projected 3.5, which turned into a single true Cinderella, but it should bounce back this year to see 2 or 3 double-digit seeds play beyond this weekend.

#1 Seeds in the Final Four

1.2

This is up slightly from last season, when the projection was 1.0, and ended up without a single #1 in the Final Four for the first time in 12 years. Expect to see one or possibly two make it this year.

Odds of a #1 Winning the Tournament

39.8%

This is up quite a bit from last year's 34.4%, which was the lowest I had ever seen, and resulted in a season without a #1 in the Final Four, let alone winning the title. The odds aren't terrible for one of the top teams to win it, but there are plenty of other teams with a chance.

Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams

(1) Purdue - 75.1%

(1) UConn - 73.1%

(1) Houston - 70.4%

(2) Arizona - 69.1%

(2) Tennessee - 66.9%

(4) Auburn - 63.2%

(1) North Carolina - 61.0%

(2) Iowa State - 58.0%

(3) Creighton - 52.2%

(2) Marquette - 51.7%

(3) Illinois - 50.7%

(4) Alabama - 48.0%

(4) Duke - 47.6%

(3) Kentucky - 46.9%

(3) Baylor - 42.6%

(5) Gonzaga - 35.3%

(6) BYU - 34.0%

(4) Kansas - 32.4%

(7) Florida - 30.9%

The 1 through 4 seeds are the most likely to make the Sweet 16, other than Gonzaga, who has a better chance than Kansas. 11 of the eventual Sweet 16 were among my 16 most likely last year, including 5 seed San Diego State and 6 seed Creighton.

Most Likely Final Four Teams

(1) Purdue - 35.2%

(1) Houston - 33.9%

(2) Arizona - 29.3%

(1) UConn - 27.8%

(2) Tennessee - 23.9%

(4) Auburn - 23.0%

(1) North Carolina - 20.5%

(2) Iowa State - 15.2%

(2) Marquette - 14.2%

(3) Illinois - 13.4%

(4) Duke - 13.0%

(4) Alabama - 12.1%

(3) Creighton - 12.1%

(3) Kentucky - 10.2%

Only 1 of last season's surprising Final Four made my list last season, which was the UConn Huskies, who won the whole thing. Most seasons will see at least 2 or 3 of these teams make the Final Four.

Most Likely Champions

(1) Purdue - 12.7%

(1) Houston - 12.3%

(1) UConn - 9.7%

(2) Arizona - 9.1%

(4) Auburn - 8.1%

(2) Tennessee - 6.9%

(1) North Carolina - 5.1%

(2) Iowa State - 3.9%

(3) Illinois - 3.4%

(4) Duke - 3.1%

(2) Marquette - 3.0%

(3) Creighton - 2.6%

(4) Alabama - 2.6%

Last season, UConn had the 7th-best odds of winning it all, despite being a 4 seed, but that was still the lowest any eventual champion had appeared on this list in at least 7 years. Your eventual champion will almost definitely come from this list.

Most Common Nicknames

Cougars/Catamounts - 5

Bulldogs - 5

Wildcats - 3

Tigers - 3

Dukes - 2

Aggies - 2

Bears/Grizzlies - 2

Raiders/Red Raiders - 2

Wolf Pack/Wolfpack - 2

Eagles - 2

The Tigers led last season, but a different type of cat leads this season.

Teams by State

Texas - 6

Alabama - 4

California - 3

North Carolina - 3

Florida - 3

Kentucky - 3

South Carolina - 3

Virginia - 3

Connecticut - 2

Illinois - 2

Iowa - 2

Colorado - 2

New York - 2

Arizona - 2

Washington - 2

Michigan - 2

Wisconsin - 2

Utah - 2

Louisiana - 2

Nebraska - 2

Ohio - 2

Pennsylvania - 1

Idaho - 1

Kansas - 1

South Dakota - 1

Vermont - 1

District of Columbia - 1

Tennessee - 1

Mississippi - 1

New Jersey - 1

New Mexico - 1

Nevada - 1

Indiana - 1

Montana - 1

Oregon - 1

As usual, the most teams come from Texas, with Alabama coming in a surprising second place.

My Picks

First Round Winners

(1) UConn

(9) Northwestern

(5) San Diego State

(4) Auburn

(6) BYU

(3) Illinois

(10) Drake

(2) Iowa State

(1) North Carolina

(9) Michigan State

(12) Grand Canyon

(4) Alabama

(11) New Mexico

(3) Baylor

(10) Nevada

(2) Arizona

(1) Houston

(9) Texas A&M

(5) Wisconsin

(4) Duke

(11) NC State

(3) Kentucky

(10) Boise State/Colorado

(2) Marquette

(1) Purdue

(9) TCU

(5) Gonzaga

(4) Kansas

(11) Oregon

(3) Creighton

(10) Virginia/Colorado State

(2) Tennessee

I'm going a little high with 12 upsets, but it's tough to keep it down to 10.

Sweet 16

(1) UConn

(4) Auburn

(6) BYU

(2) Iowa State

(9) Michigan State

(4) Alabama

(11) New Mexico

(2) Arizona

(1) Houston

(5) Wisconsin

(3) Kentucky

(2) Marquette

(1) Purdue

(5) Gonzaga

(3) Creighton

(2) Tennessee

New Mexico is my Cinderella, with Michigan State also a bit of a surprise.

Elite Eight

(4) Auburn

(6) BYU

(9) Michigan State

(2) Arizona

(1) Houston

(3) Kentucky

(1) Purdue

(3) Creighton

There are a few lower seeds here, plus a couple of other smaller upsets.

Final Four

(4) Auburn

(2) Arizona

(1) Houston

(1) Purdue

Two #1 seeds, plus a couple of really strong teams that were seeded a little lower.

Championship

(4) Auburn

(1) Purdue

An upset by the Tigers sets up a showdown against Purdue, who was the top overall seed a year ago, and a repeat #1 seed.

Champions

(4) Auburn

After pulling off a win in the SEC tournament last week, the Tigers follow it up with a national title.

NCAA Tournament Odds - 2023

There have been a total of 6109 games played this year in college basketball, with only 67 to go that matter (I'm not counting the NIT, CBI, etc.). Using the results of each of those games and plugging the teams into the bracket that was released on Sunday, I've calculated each team's odds of advancing through each round of the tournament and ending up as the champion, along with some other tips and tidbits that may help you fill out a winning bracket. Enjoy!

Best Teams Left Out

35. Rutgers

37. North Carolina

43. Liberty

44. Oklahoma State

45. Yale

Yale lost on Sunday to Princeton, which ended their chance of making the field, and Liberty fell to Kennesaw State in their tournament to suffer the same fate. Rutgers and North Carolina were popular picks to make the tournament, and Rutgers was one of the two teams I picked incorrectly to make the field. Oklahoma State was one of the official first teams out, with the committee deciding not to make them the first 15-loss team to make the field as an at-large. These teams are often good bets to win the NIT, though North Carolina turned down the invite.

Worst At-Large Teams Selected

52. Mississippi State

53. Nevada

55. Missouri

68. Arizona State

69. Pittsburgh

4 of these teams were the final 4 selected to participate. Generally these teams do not make deep tournament runs, though last year 2 of the 7 reached the Sweet 16.

Teams That are Better than their Seed

1. West Virginia

2. Utah State

3. UConn

4. Creighton

5. Arkansas

6. Memphis

7. Auburn

8. FAU

9. Iona

10. Tennessee

These teams are seeded lower than they should be given their talent, many due to weaker schedules overall, and some due to piling up losses against a strong schedule. These teams are good bets to go farther than expected in the tournament. Last season Houston made a run to the Elite 8 from the 5-seed, and Michigan reached the Sweet 16 as an 11, and both were on this list.

Teams That are Worse than their Seed

1. Virginia

2. Miami

3. Missouri

4. Kansas State

5. Indiana

6. Northwestern

7. Duke

8. TCU

9. Kentucky

10. Pittsburgh

Most of these teams either got lucky a few times and got wins they shouldn't have, or play in a conference that is weaker than usual but still has a good reputation (looking at you, ACC). 3 of the teams on this list lost on opening weekend last year in upsets, and 5 others also didn't see the second weekend.

Projected First Round Upsets

10.7

Last year's projection was only 9.8, so expect to see even more upsets this year. There ended up being 10 last season, so the projection was right on, and this year I expect to see somewhere between 9 and 13.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

(10) Utah State over (7) Missouri - 59.3%

(9) Auburn over (8) Iowa - 54.2%

(10) Boise State over (7) Northwestern - 51.92%

(9) West Virginia over (8) Maryland - 51.88%

(9) FAU over (8) Memphis - 48.0%

(11) Providence over (6) Kentucky - 47.6%

(10) USC over (7) Michigan State - 46.8%

(12) Drake over (5) Miami - 45.6%

(9) Illinois over (8) Arkansas - 45.2%

(10) Penn State over (7) Texas A&M - 44.8%

(13) Kent State over (4) Indiana - 41.9%

(11) Arizona State/Nevada over (6) TCU - 41.85%

(11) Mississippi State/Pittsburgh over (6) Iowa State - 41.77%

(12) Charleston over (5) San Diego State - 41.5%

There are 14 first round games with very strong upset potential here, including 4 where the lower seed is actually favored by my formula. 5 of the 10 first-round upsets last year were on my list, including 3 of the top 6.

Most Likely #15 or #16 to Win a Game

(15) Vermont over (2) Marquette - 25.2%

(15) Colgate over (2) Texas - 22.8%

(15) Princeton over (2) Arizona - 21.8%

(15) UNC Asheville over (2) UCLA - 11.9%

We saw another example of a 15-seed taking down a 2-seed last year with Saint Peter's, who was second on my list, and the odds of it happening this year are much higher, as last season no team on the list had more than a 14% chance of winning.

Most Likely Cinderellas

(10) Utah State - 28.3%

(11) Providence - 24.4%

(12) Charleston - 21.2%

(13) Kent State - 20.3%

(12) Drake - 20.2%

(10) USC - 20.1%

(10) Boise State - 18.4%

(11) Mississippi State/Pittsburgh - 18.3%

(10) Penn State - 18.0%

(11) NC State - 17.6%

(11) Arizona State/Nevada - 16.2%

(13) Iona - 14.3%

(12) VCU - 14.2%

(13) Furman - 14.0%

(12) Oral Roberts - 13.2%

4 double-digit seeds made it to at least the Sweet 16 last season, and 3 were among the top 10 on this list. There is a very good chance we'll see multiple teams from the list above still playing in a week.

Projected Number of Cinderellas

3.5

This is up from last season's projection of 2.9, which ultimately ended up with 4 surprise teams, so don't be surprised if you see 5 this year.

#1 Seeds in the Final Four

1.0

It's always tempting to just move the higher seed up through each round, but that may not be smart. Last season's number was 1.1, so it's dropped even more this season, and only one #1 seed made the Final Four, right on target.

Odds of a #1 Seed Winning the Tournament

34.4%

This is also down from last season's 38.1%, which did end up ultimately resulting in #1 Kansas winning, but the odds of seeing a top seed cutting down the nets is smaller this year. #1 seeds have won the last 5, but the odds of it happening have never been this low.

Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams

(1) Alabama - 65.7%

(1) Houston - 65.3%

(2) UCLA - 61.8%

(1) Purdue - 60.5%

(1) Kansas - 54.6%

(4) Tennessee - 51.6%

(3) Gonzaga - 49.7%

(2) Texas - 48.9%

(2) Arizona - 48.7%

(2) Marquette - 46.2%

(4) UConn - 43.9%

(3) Xavier - 43.7%

(3) Baylor - 39.2%

(3) Kansas State - 38.2%

(6) Creighton - 36.2%

(5) San Diego State - 34.8%

(4) Indiana - 32.9%

(6) Iowa State - 30.2%

(4) Virginia - 30.0%

9 of the 16 most likely teams actually reached the Sweet 16 last season, which is around what you would expect when you factor in the Cinderella teams. Pay attention to teams that are higher or lower than the rest of their seedmates, like Tennessee or Kansas State.

Most Likely Final Four Teams

(1) Alabama - 31.9%

(1) Houston - 31.0%

(2) UCLA - 24.0%

(1) Purdue - 22.0%

(4) Tennessee - 17.6%

(2) Texas - 16.6%

(1) Kansas - 15.8%

(2) Arizona - 14.7%

(4) UConn - 14.4%

(2) Marquette - 14.1%

(3) Gonzaga - 13.3%

(3) Xavier - 10.5%

3 of last season's Final Four teams were among the top 10 on this list, so it's a good idea to grab at least a couple of these when filling out your bracket.

Most Likely Champions

(1) Alabama - 12.6%

(1) Houston - 11.2%

(2) UCLA - 8.4%

(1) Purdue - 6.3%

(4) Tennessee - 5.0%

(2) Texas - 4.7%

(4) UConn - 4.6%

(1) Kansas - 4.4%

(2) Arizona - 4.1%

(3) Gonzaga - 3.6%

(2) Marquette - 3.4%

(3) Xavier - 2.2%

(6) Creighton - 2.1%

Since 2016, one of the top 4 teams on this list has won the tournament every year, including Kansas, who had the third-best odds last year. Alabama's top odds are the lowest of any favorite in as long as I can remember, so there are a lot of teams with a good shot of winning it all.

Most Common Nicknames

Tigers - 5

Wildcats - 4

Bulldogs - 4

Cougars/Catamounts - 3

Bears/Bruins - 2

Wolf Pack/Wolfpack - 2

Aggies - 2

Blue/Sun Devils - 2

Golden Eagles - 2

Hurricanes/Cyclones - 2

Owls - 2

Gaels - 2

Teams by State

Texas - 7

California - 5

Arizona - 3

Iowa - 3

North Carolina - 3

Alabama - 2

Florida - 2

Illinois - 2

Indiana - 2

Kansas - 2

Kentucky - 2

Missouri - 2

New Jersey - 2

New York - 2

Ohio - 2

Pennsylvania - 2

South Carolina - 2

Tennessee - 2

Virginia - 2

Arkansas - 1

Connecticut - 1

District of Columbia - 1

Georgia - 1

Idaho - 1

Louisiana - 1

Maryland - 1

Michigan - 1

Mississippi - 1

Montana - 1

Nebraska - 1

Nevada - 1

Oklahoma - 1

Rhode Island - 1

Utah - 1

Vermont - 1

Washington - 1

Wisconsin - 1

My Picks

First Round Winners

(1) Alabama

(9) West Virginia

(5) San Diego State

(4) Virginia

(6) Creighton

(3) Baylor

(10) Utah State

(2) Arizona

(1) Purdue

(9) FAU

(5) Duke

(4) Tennessee

(6) Kentucky

(3) Kansas State

(7) Michigan State

(2) Marquette

(1) Houston

(9) Auburn

(12) Drake

(13) Kent State

(6) Iowa State

(3) Xavier

(10) Penn State

(2) Texas

(1) Kansas

(9) Illinois

(12) VCU

(4) UConn

(11) Arizona State/Nevada

(3) Gonzaga

(10) Boise State

(2) UCLA

That makes 11 first-round upsets, right in the sweet spot, and nothing too crazy.

Sweet 16

(1) Alabama

(5) San Diego State

(6) Creighton

(10) Utah State

(9) FAU

(5) Duke

(6) Kentucky

(2) Marquette

(1) Houston

(12) Drake

(6) Iowa State

(2) Texas

(1) Kansas

(4) UConn

(3) Gonzaga

(2) UCLA

Only going with 2 Cinderella teams, and I feel like it's a little low, but it's tough to pick another 1 or 2.

Elite Eight

(1) Alabama

(10) Utah State

(9) FAU

(2) Marquette

(1) Houston

(2) Texas

(4) UConn

(3) Gonzaga

Final Four

(1) Alabama

(9) FAU

(2) Texas

(3) Gonzaga

Championship

(1) Alabama

(2) Texas

Champion

(2) Texas

Texas rides the high of winning the conference tournament in the toughest conference in the country to a championship.

NCAA Tournament Odds - 2022

It's once again time for my favorite post of the year. I have analyzed the results of all 5881 games that took place this season, adjusting for home court, strength of schedule, etc., then plugged those results into the bracket that was released on Sunday to determine which teams have the best odds of advancing through each round and winning the tournament. Hopefully this info is helpful to you in filling out your bracket.

Best Teams Left Out

29. Wake Forest

35. Oklahoma

44. Mississippi State

45. Oklahoma State

46. Texas A&M

47. SMU

49. Florida

Oklahoma State was ineligible for this year's tournament, but still had a decent season. The others all made appearances in my bracket updates throughout the season, including 2 (Texas A&M and SMU), that I had in my final bracket. Wake Forest lost their chance at the tournament when they lost to Boston College in the first round of the ACC Tournament, and Oklahoma lost 15 games this year, which no team has ever overcome to make the tournament. The top eligible team on this list last season, Memphis, ended up winning the NIT, so the Demon Deacons could be in for a good run in that competition.

Worst At-Large Teams Selected

50. Marquette

54. Iowa State

56. Creighton

60. Notre Dame

61. Wyoming

64. Miami

81. Rutgers

This list includes the two teams that made the field that I didn't correctly predict (Rutgers and Notre Dame), along with 5 others who were somewhat underwhelming for a good chunk of the season. Of the 5 teams that made this list last season, 4 did not win a single game in the tournament.

Teams that are Better than their Seed

1. Virginia Tech

2. San Francisco

3. Houston

4. Memphis

5. Loyola-Chicago

6. Michigan

7. Vermont

8. Iowa

9. LSU

10. Indiana

11. South Dakota State

Many of these teams were seeded lower than their talent would suggest due to the overall weakness of their schedules, but they are good bets to go farther than expected in the tournament. The 8 teams on this list last season won a total of 12 games, 9 more than was expected based on their seeds, including USC, a 6-seed who reached the Elite 8, and UCLA, an 11 who reached the Final Four. This is a good place to start looking for upsets.

Teams that are Worse than their Seed

1. Providence

2. Wisconsin

3. Colorado State

4. Creighton

5. Michigan State

6. USC

7. TCU

8. Marquette

9. Miami

10. Rutgers

These teams are good bets to exit the tournament early. The 10 teams on this list last season won a total of only 5 games, 8 fewer than expected, and none of them won more than one game or reached the Sweet 16. Picking one of these teams to make a deep run would probably be pretty dangerous.

Projected First Round Upsets

9.8

This number has dropped from last season, when it sat at 10.1, and there were exactly 10 upsets in the first round. It is probably best to pick somewhere between 8 and 11 this season.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

(9) Memphis over (8) Boise State - 53.1%

(10) San Francisco over (7) Murray State - 52.7%

(11) Michigan over (6) Colorado State - 51.1%

(10) Loyola Chicago over (7) Ohio State - 50.6%

(10) Davidson over (7) Michigan State - 49.4%

(9) TCU over (8) Seton Hall - 47.8%

(11) Virginia Tech over (6) Texas - 47.7%

(13) South Dakota State over (4) Providence - 47.6%

(10) Miami over (7) USC - 45.5%

(9) Marquette over (8) North Carolina - 44.0%

(9) Creighton over (8) San Diego State - 42.9%

(12) Wyoming/Indiana over (5) Saint Mary's - 41.5%

(13) Vermont over (4) Arkansas - 40.8%

There are 4 lower seeds that I am favoring to win in the first round, and 9 others with a very good chance at pulling one off. I put 9 potential upsets on this list last season, and 3 happened, including the top 2 on the list, but most of last year's upsets were a little more unlikely. Still, this is not a bad place to start when picking upsets.

Most Likely #15 or #16 to Win a Game

(15) Delaware over (2) Villanova - 14.0%

(15) Saint Peter's over (2) Kentucky - 13.8%

(15) Jacksonville State over (2) Auburn - 11.9%

(15) CSU Fullerton over (2) Duke - 10.8%

(16) Norfolk State over (1) Baylor - 10.6%

These don't happen often for a reason, but there is about a 50-50 shot that we'll see one this year, so if you feel like taking a risk, these 5 are the ones that are much more likely to happen. Last year, #15 Oral Roberts upset #2 Ohio State, and they were one of the 3 on my list that had a possibility of pulling it off.

Most Likely Cinderellas

(11) Virginia Tech - 21.9%

(10) Loyola-Chicago - 20.6%

(10) San Francisco - 19.9%

(11) Michigan - 18.9%

(13) Vermont - 18.81%

(10) Davidson - 18.77%

(11) Iowa State - 18.7%

(13) South Dakota State - 17.7%

(12) Wyoming/Indiana - 14.8%

(10) Miami - 13.7%

(11) Rutgers/Notre Dame - 13.3%

(12) UAB - 12.8%

(13) Chattanooga - 11.7%

(12) New Mexico State - 11.0%

(12) Richmond - 10.8%

There were 4 double-digit seeds that made it to at least the Sweet 16 last year, and three of them were among the 10 most likely on my list. There are several good options on this list, and it's very likely that at least a couple teams from this list will still be playing next week.

Projected Number of Cinderellas

2.9

Last year's projection was 3.1, so the total of 4 was right in the expected range. Between 2 and 4 seems very likely again this year.

#1 Seeds in the Final Four

1.1

Last year's projection was 1.4, and 2 ended up reaching the Final Four. This year it seems even less likely that we will see multiple #1 seeds in the Final Four, so don't give in to the temptation to just keep all of the #1 seeds alive, because they are all vulnerable to some extent, this year more than usual.

Odds of a #1 Seed Winning the Championship

38.1%

This is the lowest number I can recall in this section. Last year's odds were 52.4%, and for the 4th season in a row, a #1 seed took home the title. If a lower seed is ever going to pull it off, this might be the year.

Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams

(1) Gonzaga - 74.0%

(1) Arizona - 71.0%

(1) Kansas - 66.5%

(2) Auburn - 63.9%

(1) Baylor - 61.3%

(3) Tennessee - 59.8%

(2) Kentucky - 59.1%

(2) Duke - 59.0%

(2) Villanova - 55.7%

(4) UCLA - 55.4%

(3) Texas Tech - 52.2%

(5) Iowa - 50.8%

(3) Purdue - 48.8%

(5) Houston - 48.0%

(6) LSU - 41.5%

(5) UConn - 37.5%

(4) Arkansas - 32.7%

(3) Wisconsin - 30.4%

9 of last season's Sweet 16 had over a 30% chance of reaching that point before the tournament started, so there were several surprise teams, but most of the teams at the top of the list were still around after the opening weekend.

Most Likely Final Four Teams

(1) Gonzaga - 37.9%

(1) Arizona - 27.5%

(1) Kansas - 25.9%

(2) Auburn - 25.0%

(2) Kentucky - 21.6%

(1) Baylor - 20.6%

(3) Tennessee - 18.6%

(4) UCLA - 16.9%

(2) Duke - 16.6%

(2) Villanova - 15.5%

(5) Houston - 15.3%

(5) Iowa - 14.8%

(3) Texas Tech - 13.6%

(3) Purdue - 12.8%

Last year there were only 9 teams with at least a 10% chance of making the Final Four, and this year there are 14, so this field is definitely more wide-open than last year. 3 of the top 5 teams on last season's list made it to the final weekend, so these are definitely the best teams to pick for a deep run.

Most Likely Champions

(1) Gonzaga - 15.5%

(1) Arizona - 9.4%

(1) Kansas - 7.5%

(2) Auburn - 7.1%

(2) Kentucky - 6.4%

(1) Baylor - 5.7%

(3) Tennessee - 5.2%

(5) Houston - 4.6%

(4) UCLA - 4.32%

(2) Duke - 4.30%

(2) Villanova - 4.0%

(5) Iowa - 3.6%

(3) Texas Tech - 3.4%

(3) Purdue - 2.9%

Last year, only 9 teams made this list with at least a 2% chance of winning it all, and the title went to Baylor, who was #4 on the list, the first time since 2016 that the winner wasn't in the top 2 on my list. There are 14 teams on this list this season, and any of them could realistically win it all, and Gonzaga is even less of a favorite than last year, when they had a 26% chance of winning the championship.

Most Common Nicknames

Wildcats - 4

Tigers - 4

Bulldogs - 3

Raiders/Red Raiders - 3

Hurricanes/Cylcones - 2

Bears/Bruins - 2

Spartans - 2

Catamounts/Cougars - 2

Teams by State

Texas - 7

California - 6

Virginia - 4

Alabama - 4

Tennessee - 3

New Jersey - 3

Indiana - 3

Ohio - 3

North Carolina - 2

Illinois - 2

Connecticut - 2

Kentucky - 2

Michigan - 2

Iowa - 2

Rhode Island - 2

Wisconsin - 2

Arkansas - 1

Arizona - 1

Colorado - 1

Florida - 1

Georgia - 1

Idaho - 1

Delaware - 1

Kansas - 1

Louisiana - 1

Montana - 1

Nebraska - 1

New Mexico - 1

New York - 1

Pennsylvania - 1

South Dakota - 1

Vermont - 1

Washington - 1

Wyoming - 1

My Picks

First Round Winners

(1) Gonzaga

(9) Memphis

(5) UConn

(13) Vermont

(6) Alabama

(3) Texas Tech

(10) Davidson

(2) Duke

(1) Baylor

(9) Marquette

(12) Wyoming/Indiana

(4) UCLA

(11) Virginia Tech

(3) Purdue

(10) San Francisco

(2) Kentucky

(1) Arizona

(9) TCU

(5) Houston

(4) Illinois

(11) Michigan

(3) Tennessee

(10) Loyola-Chicago

(2) Villanova

(1) Kansas

(9) Creighton

(5) Iowa

(13) South Dakota State

(6) LSU

(3) Wisconsin

(10) Miami

(2) Auburn

That is a total of 13 first round upsets, probably a little high, but it's been a crazy season and I'm hoping for a crazy tournament to wrap it up.

Sweet 16

(1) Gonzaga

(13) Vermont

(6) Alabama

(2) Duke

(1) Baylor

(4) UCLA

(11) Virginia Tech

(2) Kentucky

(1) Arizona

(5) Houston

(3) Tennessee

(2) Villanova

(1) Kansas

(5) Iowa

(6) LSU

(2) Auburn

I've got all of the #1's and #2 advancing this far, along with a couple of Cinderella teams. There are 5 SEC teams at this point, with 2 each from the Pac 12, Big 12, and ACC.

Elite Eight

(1) Gonzaga

(2) Duke

(4) UCLA

(2) Kentucky

(5) Houston

(3) Tennessee

(5) Iowa

(2) Auburn

This is where the big teams start to go down, with 3 #1 seeds falling in this round alone. 3 SEC teams remain alive, the only conference with multiple teams left.

Final Four

(1) Gonzaga

(4) UCLA

(5) Houston

(5) Iowa

Now the #2 seeds fall, leaving behind Gonzaga and 3 slight surprise teams playing on to the final weekend.

Championship

(1) Gonzaga

(5) Iowa

#1 overall seed Gonzaga reaches the title game yet again, where they face the Big 10 champs from Iowa.

Champion

(1) Gonzaga

I am picking the Bulldogs to win just like I did last year, even though they fell just short last time. Their odds might not be as good, but with how wide-open the field is, much of their toughest competition may fall earlier than expected, paving the way for their first-ever title.

NCAA Tournament Odds - 2021

It's time for my favorite post of the year, one that didn't happen last season because of the cancellation of March Madness. 68 teams have been selected, none opted out before the deadline due to COVID, so the teams are now locked into place. I have analyzed the results of every game by all 347 teams that participated this season (nearly 4200 games in all) in order to rank each team and calculate their odds of advancing through each round of the upcoming tournament and winning the championship. Hopefully this information can help you fill out a winning bracket (unless you're competing against me).

Best Teams Left Out

(34) Arizona

(36) Memphis

(41) Penn State

(44) Seton Hall

(45) Duke

(47) Saint Louis

Arizona was ineligible to participate due to a self-imposed postseason ban, but the other 5 teams on this list were all on my list of those teams that were likely to just barely miss the tournament. The one team I picked wrong in my bracket prediction on Sunday (Louisville), was ranked #59 in my final rankings, so I felt they were undeserving of a spot but would likely get one anyway. The second-best team on my 2019 version of this list (Texas) ended up winning the NIT, and they are a 3-seed in this year's tournament.

Lowest-Ranked At-Large Teams Selected

(52) VCU

(54) Syracuse

(57) Drake

(72) Michigan State

(76) Virginia Tech

I correctly predicted that each of these teams would make the tournament, but that doesn't mean they were among the best teams available. Michigan State pulled off a couple of huge upset wins earlier this month to earn their spot, and the others either were mediocre in a great conference or pretty good in a mediocre conference. Of the six teams on this list in 2019, none made it to the Sweet 16, and only 2 won a game in the tournament.

Most Underseeded Teams

These are the teams that are better than their seed would suggest according to where they rank among the 68 teams in my rating system:

1. Colgate

2. USC

3. UConn

4. Wisconsin

5. Abilene Christian

6. Colorado

7. Villanova

8. UCLA

3 Pac 12 teams made this list, showing a lack of respect for the league in general, though it has been down for several years now, but this is the strongest group of teams from the conference in quite a while. 5 of the 9 teams on this list in 2019 pulled off upsets in the tournament, including Oregon, who made the Sweet 16 as a 12 seed, and Auburn, who pulled off 3 straight upsets on their way to the Final Four as a 5 seed. These teams are a good place to look for early upsets or possible Cinderellas.

Most Overseeded Teams

These are the teams who are not as good as their seed would suggest:

1. Kansas

2. Oklahoma State

3. Clemson

4. Texas

5. West Virginia

6. Virginia

7. Virginia Tech

8. Florida

9. Oklahoma

10. Wichita State

5 of these teams are from the Big 12, and another 3 are from the ACC, so it appears that those 2 conferences were given a lot more credit by the committee than they might have deserved. Of the 9 teams on this list in 2019, two lost in play-in games, 3 lost in first-round upsets, and two more lost in the second round, with only two 3-seeds making it to the Sweet 16 before losing, meaning only the 2 9-seeds made it farther than expected (by beating an 8-seed). These teams are unlikely to make it deep into the tournament.

Number of First Round Upsets

10.1

This number is a bit bigger than the 8.7 projection from last time, when there ended up being 12, which was higher than expected. The number this year is likely to fall somewhere between 9 and 11.

Most Likely First-Round Upsets

(10) Rutgers over (7) Clemson - 53.2%

(9) Wisconsin over (8) North Carolina - 53.1%

(14) Colgate over (3) Arkansas - 52.2%

(9) Missouri over (8) Oklahoma - 48.3%

(9) St. Bonaventure over (8) LSU - 48.2%

(9) Georgia Tech over (8) Loyola Chicago - 43.6%

(11) Utah State over (6) Texas Tech - 42.6%

(10) VCU over (7) Oregon - 42.0%

(10) Maryland over (7) UConn - 40.1%

With 9 possible upsets on this list last time, the top 7 all happened, including 12-seeded Murray State knocking off 5-seed Marquette, so this list is a great place to start your search for upsets.

Most Likely #15 or #16 to Win a Game

(15) Grand Canyon over (2) Iowa - 19.9%

(15) Oral Roberts over (2) Ohio State - 13.9%

(15) Iona over (2) Alabama - 10.7%

These upsets don't happen often, but if you're feeling adventurous, maybe try tossing one of these teams in for an upset. 

Most Likely Cinderellas

(14) Colgate - 30.3%

(10) Rutgers - 18.0%

(12) UCSB - 17.8%

(11) Syracuse - 17.6%

(11) Utah State - 16.5%

(10) Maryland - 15.0%

(14) Abilene Christian - 14.8%

(10) VCU - 14.3%

(11) UCLA - 12.9%

(12) Oregon State - 12.7%

(12) Georgetown - 12.6%

(12) Winthrop - 12.2%

(13) North Texas - 12.1%

(10) Virginia Tech - 12.0%

(14) Eastern Washington - 11.2%

(13) Liberty - 11.0%

This is the strongest field of potential Cinderellas (double digit seeds) I have ever seen in all my years of following the tournament. Only 1 double-digit seed made the Sweet 16 in 2019 (Oregon), and they were #2 on my list of the most likely. The top of this list is the best place to start if you want to pick a surprise team to make a deep run.

Number of Cinderellas

3.1

My projection last time was 2.7, so 1 was obviously lower than expected, but I feel like there are several good options to pick from this season.

#1 Seeds in the Final Four

1.4

Last time I projected 1.6, and there ended up being only 1, so it's just as unlikely as usual to see more than two of the #1 seeds make it all the way to the final weekend.

Odds of a #1 Seed Winning the Tournament

52.4%

#1 seeds have won 3 tournaments in a row, and it's still slightly more likely to happen than not this year. In 2019, the number was 57.5%, so the threats from below are a little stronger this year.

Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams

(1) Gonzaga - 85.1%

(1) Michigan - 68.0%

(2) Houston - 66.2%

(1) Illinois - 66.1%

(1) Baylor - 64.7%

(2) Ohio State - 56.8%

(2) Alabama - 54.7%

(2) Iowa - 54.3%

(6) USC - 45.7%

(5) Colorado - 42.7%

(3) West Virginia - 41.43%

(5) Villanova - 41.39%

(5) Tennessee - 41.3%

(5) Creighton - 37.6%

(6) San Diego State - 35.3%

(4) Virginia - 35.1%

(4) Oklahoma State - 34.89%

(4) Florida State - 34.88%

(4) Purdue - 34.3%

(6) BYU - 33.9%

(3) Texas - 33.3%

(3) Kansas - 31.3%

(14) Colgate - 30.3%

In 2019, 15 of the top 16 in my projection made the actual Sweet 16, with Cinderella Oregon the only one that didn't appear on my list. It seems unlikely that I will do that well again, but these are definitely the teams to be looking at to still be alive after this weekend.

Most Likely Final Four Teams

(1) Gonzaga - 36.8%

(1) Illinois - 29.7%

(1) Michigan - 29.4%

(1) Baylor - 27.8%

(2) Houston - 24.6%

(2) Alabama - 18.2%

(2) Ohio State - 16.2%

(2) Iowa - 14.8%

(5) Colorado - 10.3%

Of the Final Four Teams in 2019, 3 were on my list of those with at least a 10% chance of making it. This year, it's a list of the top 8 teams, plus a surprise in Colorado, who in my opinion has a pretty easy opening weekend which could help them make a surprise run.

Most Likely Champions

(1) Gonzaga - 26.1%

(1) Illinois - 9.3%

(1) Michigan - 8.7%

(1) Baylor - 8.2%

(2) Houston - 6.7%

(2) Iowa - 4.5%

(2) Alabama - 4.2%

(2) Ohio State - 3.4%

(6) USC - 2.3%

Another list of the top 8 seeds, with the addition of a surprise team from the Pac 12. Gonzaga is a clear favorite, and the top team on this list has won the tournament each of the last 2 seasons, with the #2 team winning the year before that, so don't be surprised to see the Bulldogs win the first title in their history this year.

Most Common Nicknames

Tigers - 4

Eagles/Golden Eagles - 4

Spartans - 3

Mountaineers - 3

Bulldogs - 2

Wildcats - 2

Cougars - 2

Bruins/Bears - 2

Raiders/Red Raiders - 2

Bulldogs and Wildcats had 4 each last time, but they have been replaced by Tigers and Eagles this year. All 3 Mountaineers in the country made the tournament this season.

Teams by State

Texas - 7

Virginia - 5

California - 4

New York - 4

North Carolina - 3

Ohio - 3

Oklahoma - 3

Connecticut - 2

Florida - 2

Illinois - 2

Iowa - 2

Kansas - 2

Maryland - 2

Michigan - 2

Oregon - 2

Pennsylvania - 2

South Carolina - 2

Utah - 2

Washington - 2

Alabama - 1

Arizona - 1

Arkansas - 1

Colorado - 1

District of Columbia - 1

Georgia - 1

Indiana - 1

Kentucky - 1

Louisiana - 1

Missouri - 1

Nebraska - 1

New Jersey - 1

Tennessee - 1

West Virginia - 1

Wisconsin - 1

17 states are not represented this year, including Alaska, which has no Division I teams. Texas has the most teams once again, but moved up from 5 to 7 this season. Interestingly, all three states that begin with O saw both of their state universities make the field (OU and OSU for all 3).

My Picks

First Round Winners

(1) Gonzaga

(9) Missouri

(5) Creighton

(4) Virginia

(6) USC

(3) Kansas

(10) VCU

(2) Iowa

(1) Michigan

(9) St. Bonaventure

(5) Colorado

(4) Florida State

(6) BYU

(3) Texas

(10) Maryland

(2) Alabama

(1) Baylor

(9) Wisconsin

(5) Villanova

(4) Purdue

(11) Utah State

(14) Colgate

(7) Florida

(2) Ohio State

(1) Illinois

(9) Georgia Tech

(5) Tennessee

(4) Oklahoma State

(6) San Diego State

(3) West Virginia

(10) Rutgers

(2) Houston

That comes to a total of 9 upsets in the first round

Sweet 16

(1) Gonzaga

(5) Creighton

(6) USC

(2) Iowa

(1) Michigan

(5) Colorado

(6) BYU

(2) Alabama

(1) Baylor

(5) Villanova

(14) Colgate

(2) Ohio State

(1) Illinois

(5) Tennessee

(6) San Diego State

(2) Houston

I have all of the ones and twos, but none of the threes or fours making it this far. There are 4 teams from the Big 10, along with 2 each from the WCC, Pac 12, Big East, and SEC. Colgate is my designated Cinderella.

Elite Eight

(1) Gonzaga

(6) USC

(1) Michigan

(6) BYU

(1) Baylor

(14) Colgate

(1) Illinois

(2) Houston

This group has two teams each from the WCC and Big 10, along with all 4 of the #1 seeds.

Final Four

(1) Gonzaga

(1) Michigan

(1) Baylor

(2) Houston

It's tough to pick against any of the #1 teams again this year, but Houston has been really good lately, and I feel they have the best chance of breaking up the 1 seed party.

Championship

(1) Gonzaga

(2) Houston

Two mid-major schools making it to the title game would be legendary.

Champion

(1) Gonzaga

I just can't see Gonzaga losing this year, since they've already beaten the 2, 3, and 4 seeds in their own region already this year, and only won by less than 10 once all season.

2019 NCAA Tournament Odds

It's time for March Madness! The 68 teams have been selected, and I have analyzed every game for all 353 teams this season (over 6000 games total) to come up with my odds for how far each team will advance in the tournament, and which teams are most likely to pull off upsets. I hope this is helpful to you in filling out your bracket!

Best Teams Left Out

These are the teams that were rated highest by my ranking system, but were still left out of the field for various reasons:

(28) Clemson
(30) Texas
(31) NC State
(43) Nebraska
(44) Penn State
(45) Furman

I felt that the top 3 on this list would make the field, but they were left out, Texas most likely for their overall record, NC State for their non-conference SOS, and Clemson for their lack of good wins.

Lowest-Ranked At-Large Teams Selected

(53) Minnesota
(54) Washington
(56) Seton Hall
(63) Arizona State
(75) St. John's
(76) Temple

I did predict that the first 3 on this list would make the tournament, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they deserved it. The bottom 3 were among the last 4 selected, and all were surprises to me. You should probably not bet on these teams to make deep tournament runs. Of the 8 teams on last year's list, 5 lost in the first round, and another lost later in the weekend, so only 2 of the 8 did anything in the tournament. Arizona State is the only team that is making a repeat appearance on this list.

Most Underseeded Teams

These are the teams who are better than their seed shows according to where they rank among the 68 teams according to my ranking system:

1. Wofford
2. Florida
3. Belmont
4. Murray State
5. Auburn
6. Buffalo
7. Saint Mary's
8. Oregon
9. Yale

These teams could be in line to move farther along in the bracket than their seed might suggest. Last year's list of 5 included Loyola-Chicago, which famously made it all the way to the Final Four, as well as Butler, who upset Arkansas in the first round. Gonzaga made the list last year at all as a 4 seed, and made it to the Sweet 16 as expected.

Most Overseeded Teams

These are the teams who are not as good as their seed suggests:

1. Houston
2. LSU
3. Kansas State
4. Marquette
5. Ole Miss
6. Baylor
7. Washington
8. St. John's
9. Temple

These teams could be in line to be knocked out earlier than expected. Of the 9 teams on last year's list, 6 lost in the first round, 7 during the first weekend, and 5 of the 6 who played a lower seed were upset by them.

Number of First Round Upsets

8.7

This is nearly 1 lower than last year's projected of 9.5, which was as close as possible to the actual total of 9. The total number of upsets will most likely fall within the range of 7 to 10.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

(9) Oklahoma over (8) Ole Miss - 51.1%
(9) Baylor over (8) Syracuse - 47.0%
(10) Iowa over (7) Cincinnati - 46.9%
(9) UCF over (8) VCU - 46.7%
(10) Florida over (7) Nevada - 44.7%
(12) Murray State over (5) Marquette - 44.2%
(9) Washington over (8) Utah State - 44.2%
(11) Saint Mary's over (6) Villanova - 43.1%
(11) Belmont/Temple over (6) Maryland - 40.1%

Of the 10 upsets on this list last year, 6 ended up happening, so this is a great place to start when looking for upset picks.

Most Likely #15 or #16 to Win a Game

(15) Colgate over (2) Tennessee - 13.9%
(15) Montana over (2) Michigan - 12.1%
(15) Abilene Christian over (2) Kentucky - 10.9%

Last year I put the odds at 63% of seeing one of these upsets last year, and UMBC made it happen, though they were not on my list. These probably won't happen, but might be fun to toss into a bracket if you are filling out a lot of entries.

Most Likely Cinderellas

(12) Murray State - 19.4%
(12) Oregon - 16.6%
(11) Saint Mary's - 16.4%
(10) Florida - 16.1%
(10) Iowa - 16.1%
(11) Ohio State - 15.2%
(12) New Mexico State - 13.3%
(11) Belmont - 13.1%
(14) Yale - 11.7%
(12) Liberty - 11.2%

There were 4 Cinderellas in last year's field, and 2 were among the top 5 on my list, Loyola-Chicago and Florida State. If you want to see a high seed on the second weekend, these are by far the most likely.

Number of Cinderellas

2.7

Last year's projection was 3.3, so 4 was right in the range. Look for 2 or 3 to do it this year.

#1 Seeds in the Final Four

1.6

Last year's number was 1.1, and two made it, so my prediction was once again right in the range. This year 1 or 2 should make it again, so don't get too attached to chalk.

Odds of #1 Seed Winning the Tournament

57.5%

#1 seeds have won the last 2 championships, and the odds were a bit lower than this year, which is the highest I have seen since the year that Kentucky was undefeated entering the tournament, so despite what I said above about not strictly picking favorites, there is a great chance that the final team standing will be a top seed.

Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams

(1) Gonzaga - 83.3%
(1) Virginia - 83.0%
(1) Duke - 81.5%
(1) North Carolina - 79.2%
(2) Michigan State - 73.4%
(2) Tennessee - 59.8%
(2) Michigan - 57.9%
(2) Kentucky - 57.4%
(3) Purdue - 54.7%
(4) Virginia Tech - 51.1%
(3) Texas Tech - 50.5%
(4) Florida State - 43.5%
(3) Houston - 42.6%
(5) Auburn - 40.6%
(3) LSU - 39.6%
(5) Wisconsin - 39.6%

(4) Kansas - 36.7%
(6) Iowa State - 35.6%
(6) Buffalo - 35.3%
(4) Kansas State - 34.1%
(5) Mississippi State - 32.3%
(6) Maryland - 31.3%
(7) Wofford - 30.5%

Last year, 8 of the actual Sweet 16 were on my top 16 list, and another 2 were on the lower portion of the list, so a good number of the teams here should still be alive next week.

Most Likely Final Four Teams

(1) Virginia - 45.0%
(1) Gonzaga - 43.8%
(1) Duke - 37.6%
(1) North Carolina - 37.2%
(2) Michigan State - 30.2%
(2) Kentucky - 18.4%
(2) Michigan - 16.8%
(2) Tennessee - 16.1%
(3) Purdue - 13.6%
(3) Texas Tech - 11.9%

3 of last year's Final Four were on my list, which is any team with at least a 10% chance of making it that far. Obviously, Loyola-Chicago was not on this list, though they were on all of my potential upset lists.

Most Likely Champions

(1) Virginia - 17.2%
(1) Gonzaga - 15.9%
(1) Duke - 13.1%
(1) North Carolina - 11.3%
(2) Michigan State - 9.3%
(2) Kentucky - 4.0%
(2) Michigan - 4.0%
(2) Tennessee - 3.7%
(3) Purdue - 2.9%
(3) Texas Tech - 2.4%

This list is the same as the one above. Last year's champ, Villanova, was #1 on my list, and the previous year's champ was #2, so these are the teams you should probably pick to make it to the end.

Most Common Nicknames

Bulldogs - 4
Wildcats - 4
Bears/Bruins/Grizzlies - 3
Devils (Blue/Sun) - 2
Eagles/Golden Eagles - 2
Knights - 2
Tigers - 2
Panthers - 2
Red Storm/Raiders - 2
Gaels - 2
Aggies - 2
Huskies - 2
Catamounts/Cougars - 2

Teams by State

New York - 5
Texas - 5
Virginia - 5
Kentucky - 4
North Carolina - 4
Florida - 3
California - 2
Iowa - 2
Kansas - 2
Michigan - 2
Mississippi - 2
New Jersey - 2
Ohio - 2
Pennsylvania - 2

Tennessee - 2

Washington - 2

Wisconsin - 2
Alabama - 1
Arizona - 1
Connecticut - 1
Georgia - 1
Illinois - 1
Indiana - 1
Louisiana - 1
Maryland - 1
Massachusetts - 1
Minnesota - 1
Missouri - 1
Montana - 1
Nevada - 1
New Mexico - 1
North Dakota - 1
Oklahoma - 1
Oregon - 1
South Carolina - 1
Utah - 1
Vermont - 1

There are only 13 states not represented in this year's bracket.

My Picks

These are my picks for this year's entire bracket, with upset picks in italics.

First Round Winners

(1) Duke
(9) UCF
(5) Mississippi State
(4) Virginia Tech
(11) Belmont
(3) LSU
(7) Louisville
(2) Michigan State

(1) Gonzaga
(9) Baylor
(12) Murray State
(4) Florida State
(6) Buffalo
(3) Texas Tech
(10) Florida
(2) Michigan

(1) Virginia
(9) Oklahoma
(5) Wisconsin
(4) Kansas State
(11) Saint Mary's
(3) Purdue
(10) Iowa
(2) Tennessee

(1) North Carolina
(9) Washington
(5) Auburn
(4) Kansas
(6) Iowa State
(3) Houston
(7) Wofford
(2) Kentucky

I am picking 9 upsets in the first round this year.

Sweet 16

(1) Duke
(5) Mississippi State
(11) Belmont
(2) Michigan State

(1) Gonzaga
(4) Florida State
(6) Buffalo
(2) Michigan

(1) Virginia
(5) Wisconsin
(3) Purdue
(2) Tennessee

(1) North Carolina
(5) Auburn
(6) Iowa State
(7) Wofford

Belmont is my designated Cinderella, and they join 4 teams from the ACC, 4 from the Big 10, and 3 from the SEC.

Elite Eight

(1) Duke
(2) Michigan State

(1) Gonzaga
(2) Michigan

(1) Virginia
(3) Purdue

(1) North Carolina
(7) Wofford

I have all 4 #1 seeds making it this far, with 3 ACC teams and 3 Big 10 teams, along with Wofford and Gonzaga.

Final Four

(2) Michigan State
(1) Gonzaga
(1) Virginia
(1) North Carolina

It's really tough to pick against any of the #1 seeds this year, but I have a feeling Michigan State is going to be mad about not being one of them.

Championship

(2) Michigan State
(1) North Carolina

Champion

(2) Michigan State

NCAA Tournament Odds - 2018

It's time for my favorite post of the year, my breakdown of everything related to the NCAA Tournament. I have analyzed the data from every game played this year by all 351 Division I teams, and have used that to figure out the odds of any team beating any other team among those still remaining, as well as the odds of those matchups even taking place. Hope this helps you fill out a winning bracket!

Best Teams Left Out

(28) Penn State
(31) Louisville
(32) Notre Dame
(33) Saint Mary's
(36) Middle Tennessee
(40) Baylor
(42) USC
(44) Louisiana

These 8 teams were all ranked among my top 36 at-large teams at the close of the season, but were not selected for the tournament. These teams may be better than some in the tournament, and I felt that 5 of them (Louisville, Saint Mary's, Middle Tennessee, Baylor, and USC) deserved to make the field, but they were left out by the committee in a very difficult season to pick.

Lowest-Ranked At-Large Teams

(49) Oklahoma
(50) Arizona State
(53) Kansas State
(55) Syracuse
(59) St. Bonaventure
(62) Alabama
(67) UCLA
(70) Providence

If the best teams were put into the tournament rather than those seen as most deserving, these 8 would not have been in the field, though I included 3 of them (Oklahoma, Kansas State, and St. Bonaventure) in my bracket prediction, with the other 5 being the surprises I didn't see coming. Of the 3 teams that made this list last season, only one won a game, and they lost in the second round, so don't bet on these teams to make deep tournament runs, though a win or two would not be out of the question. Providence makes an appearance on this list for the second year in a row.

Most Underseeded Teams

These teams are the ones seeded at least two spots below where they should have been based on overall ranking, which means they could be in line to advance farther than expected:

1. Butler
2. Davidson
3. Gonzaga
4. Loyola-Chicago
5. Penn

These are the only 5 teams that were seeded at least 2 spots lower than they should have been, which is the smallest list I have ever had. Of the teams on last year's list, Wichita State, which topped the list, pulled off a first round upset, Florida reached the Elite 8, and Wisconsin reached the Sweet 16 by upsetting #1 Villanova. Butler is the only really bad seeding here, receiving a 10 instead of the 6 they should have had.

Most Overseeded Teams

1. Alabama
2. Kansas
3. Xavier
4. Arizona
5. Miami
6. Missouri
7. Kansas State
8. Providence
9. Charleston

Of the 10 teams on this list last season, 6 were upset by a lower seed, so these teams are good choices to drop from your bracket a little earlier than their seed would suggest.

Number of First Round Upsets

9.5

Last year the prediction was 9.2, and there were only 6, which was a little low, but the previous year there were 13 with a prediction of 9.2, and the previous year was low as well, so the pattern is pointing towards more upsets this season, with 8 to 11 being a likely range.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

(10) Butler over (7) Arkansas - 54.2%
(9) Florida State over (8) Missouri - 51.3%
(11) Loyola-Chicago over (6) Miami - 47.5%
(9) NC State over (8) Seton Hall - 46.3%
(10) Oklahoma over (7) Rhode Island - 46.0%
(10) Texas over (7) Nevada - 43.0%
(9) Kansas State over (8) Creighton - 42.7%
(12) Davidson over (5) Kentucky - 42.5%
(11) Syracuse/Arizona State over (6) TCU - 42.1%
(9) Alabama over (8) Virginia Tech - 42.0%

Of the 6 first round upsets last season, 5 were among the top 9 on my list, so these games are a good spot to start looking for your early upsets.

Most Likely #15 or #16 to Pull Off an Upset

(15) Georgia State over (2) Cincinnati - 21.2%
(16) Penn over (1) Kansas - 20.7%
(15) Lipscomb over (2) North Carolina - 8.2%
(15) Iona over (2) Duke - 7.5%
(15) CS Fullerton over (2) Purdue - 6.2%

These upsets rarely happen, but there is a 63% chance of seeing one of them this year. No #16 has ever beaten a #1, but underseeded Penn has the best chance in history of doing it against overseeded Kansas.

Most Likely Cinderellas

(12) Davidson - 20.9%
(11) Loyola-Chicago - 20.1%
(10) Butler - 19.9%
(9) NC State - 19.4%
(9) Florida State - 18.8%
(10) Texas - 16.2%
(12) Murray State - 15.9%
(13) Buffalo - 15.1%
(11) San Diego State - 14.8%
(12) New Mexico State - 13.8%

Last year's lone Cinderella (Xavier) was #4 on my list last season, so this is the best place to look for a deep run from a low seed, but don't pick too many.

Low Seeds in the Sweet 16

3.3

Last season's number was 2.7, so getting only 1 was a little low, but seeing 3 or 4 this year wouldn't be a surprise. Look at the list above for the best candidates.

#1 Seeds in the Final Four

1.1

Last season's number was 1.2, and 2 made it, so don't pick too many of the top seeds to get to the final weekend.

Odds of #1 Seed Winning the Tournament

38.6%

This is down just slightly from last year, when #1 North Carolina won it all.

Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams

(1) Villanova - 81.4%
(1) Virginia - 74.7%
(2) Duke - 72.5%
(2) North Carolina - 66.0%
(2) Purdue - 63.8%
(1) Xavier - 63.6%
(3) Michigan State - 54.0%
(3) Tennessee - 51.1%
(2) Cincinnati - 51.0%
(1) Kansas - 49.5%
(4) Auburn - 44.9%
(4) Gonzaga - 44.8%
(3) Texas Tech - 44.0%
(3) Michigan - 42.0%
(4) Wichita State - 40.4%
(5) West Virginia - 36.5%

(5) Ohio State - 35.2%
(5) Clemson - 35.1%
(6) Houston - 34.0%
(5) Kentucky - 32.7%
(4) Arizona - 31.4%
(6) Florida - 30.9%

Last season 12 of the actual Sweet 16 teams were among my 16 most likely, so you should see a pretty good number of them still alive after this weekend.

Most Likely Final Four Teams

(1) Villanova - 42.8%
(1) Virginia - 37.6%
(2) Duke - 34.2%
(2) North Carolina - 25.1%
(2) Purdue - 20.8%
(1) Xavier - 17.8%
(3) Michigan State - 16.6%
(2) Cincinnati - 15.9%
(4) Gonzaga - 13.9%
(1) Kansas - 13.1%
(3) Tennessee - 12.4%
(3) Michigan - 11.1%
(4) Auburn - 10.2%

Last season, the top 2 teams on my list made the Final Four, along with Oregon, which was #11 on my list. This us the second straight year that Kansas is the least likely #1 to reach the Final Four.

Most Likely Champions

(1) Villanova - 18.4%
(1) Virginia - 13.7%
(2) Duke - 12.3%
(2) North Carolina - 6.8%
(2) Purdue - 6.2%
(3) Michigan State - 4.4%
(2) Cincinnati - 4.0%
(1) Xavier - 3.6%
(4) Gonzaga - 3.1%
(1) Kansas - 2.8%

Last year's champ was #2 on this list, while the runners-up were #1 on the list, so you probably don't want to look much beyond this list for your winner.

Random Odds

All-ACC Title Game - 9.9% (Virginia-Duke most likely)
All-Big East Final - 3.2% (Villanova-Xavier most likely)
All-Big 10 Final - 1.8% (Michigan-Purdue most likely)
All-Wildcat Final - 1.8% (Kentucky-Villanova most likely)
All-SEC Final - 0.7% (Auburn-Tennessee most likely)
All-American Final - 0.3% (Cincinnati-Wichita State most likely)
All-Big 12 Final - 0.2% (Kansas-Texas most likely)
All-ACC Final Four - 0.1% (Virginia Tech drags this down)

Most Common Nicknames

Wildcats - 5
Tigers - 4
Wolf Pack/Wolfpack - 2
Bulldogs - 2
Spartans - 2
Cougars - 2
Aggies - 2
Bison/Bisons - 2
Devils (Blue/Sun) - 2

Teams By State

Texas - 7
North Carolina - 6
New York - 5
Ohio - 4
California - 3
Florida - 3
Kansas - 3
Pennsylvania - 3
Virginia - 3
Alabama - 2
Arizona - 2
Indiana - 2
Kentucky - 2
Michigan - 2
Rhode Island - 2
South Carolina - 2
Tennessee - 2
West Virginia - 2
Arkansas - 1
Georgia - 1
Illinois - 1
Maryland - 1
Missouri - 1
Montana - 1
Nebraska - 1
Nevada - 1
New Jersey - 1
New Mexico - 1
Oklahoma - 1
South Dakota - 1
Washington - 1

19 states are not represented.

Overall Bracket

These are my picks for the entire bracket, with upset picks in italics.

First Round Winners

(1) Virginia
(9) Kansas State
(12) Davidson
(4) Arizona
(11) Loyola-Chicago
(3) Tennessee
(10) Texas
(2) Cincinnati

(1) Xavier
(9) Florida State
(5) Ohio State
(4) Gonzaga
(6) Houston
(3) Michigan
(10) Providence
(2) North Carolina

(1) Villanova
(9) Alabama
(5) West Virginia
(4) Wichita State
(6) Florida
(3) Texas Tech
(10) Butler
(2) Purdue

(1) Kansas
(9) NC State
(5) Clemson
(4) Auburn
(11) Arizona State/Syracuse
(3) Michigan State
(10) Oklahoma
(2) Duke

I am picking 11 upsets in the first round this season.

Sweet 16

(1) Virginia
(12) Davidson
(3) Tennessee
(2) Cincinnati

(1) Xavier
(5) Ohio State
(6) Houston
(2) North Carolina

(1) Villanova
(5) West Virginia
(6) Florida
(2) Purdue

(1) Kansas
(5) Clemson
(3) Michigan State
(2) Duke

Davidson is my Cinderella pick, taking out two fellow Wildcats on the way. 4 ACC teams make the Sweet 16, along with 3 from the Big 10, 2 from the SEC, 2 from the American, 2 from the Big East, and 2 from the Big 12.

Elite Eight

(1) Virginia
(3) Tennessee

(5) Ohio State
(2) North Carolina

(1) Villanova
(2) Purdue

(5) Clemson
(3) Michigan State

3 teams each from the Big 10 and ACC make the Elite Eight, with Villanova and Tennessee the only loners.

Final Four

(1) Virginia
(5) Ohio State
(1) Villanova
(3) Michigan State

2 #1 teams make the Final Four, along with 2 Big 10 teams.

Title Game

(1) Virginia
(1) Villanova

Champion

(1) Villanova

NCAA Tournament Odds - 2017

It's time for my favorite post of the year, my breakdown of everything related to the NCAA Tournament. I have analyzed the data from every game played this year by all 351 Division I teams, and have used that to figure out the odds of any team beating any other team among those still remaining, as well as the odds of those matchups even taking place. Hope this helps you fill out a winning bracket!

Best Teams Left Out

35. Indiana
39. Clemson
46. Syracuse

This year there were only 3 teams ranked among my top 36 at-large teams that did not get selected for the field, and all 3 lost at least 14 games this season, and no team has ever been selected for an at-large bid with more than 14 until this year.

Lowest Ranked At-Large Teams

Seed in parentheses

53. Seton Hall (9)
59. Providence (11)
65. USC (11)

Providence and USC were among the last 4 teams to get in, so it's no surprise to see them on this list. Last year, 5 of the 6 teams on this list lost in their very first game, and the other lost in the second round, so don't look for these teams to make a run.

Most Underseeded Teams

These are the teams that were seeded much lower than they should have been, and therefore have become likely teams to pull off early upsets:

1. Wichita State (10)
2. Wake Forest (11)
3. Virginia (5)
4. Oklahoma State (10)
5. Kansas State (11)
6. West Virginia (4)
7. Florida (4)
8. SMU (6)
9. Saint Mary's (7)
10. Wisconsin (8)

The only one of these that is glaring is Wichita State, as the committee did one of its best seedings overall that I have seen. Last season, three of the top 4 on this list pulled off upsets, with 11-seed Gonzaga reaching the Sweet 16 and 14-seed Stephen F Austin knocking off West Virginia in the first round.

Most Overseedeed Teams

1. Maryland (6)
2. Arizona (2)
3. Butler (4)
4. Minnesota (5)
5. Dayton (7)
6. Seton Hall (9)
7. Kansas (1)
8. Baylor (3)
9. South Carolina (7)
10. Northwestern (8)

Last season, 8 of the teams on this list were upset within the first two rounds, so don't hang your hopes on these teams. This year, there is only one first-round matchup of teams from opposite lists, Wichita State vs. Dayton, which is also my top upset pick.

Number of First Round Upsets

9.2

Coincidentally, that is the exact same number projected last year, when there ended up being 13. The safe range is from 8 to 11.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

(10) Wichita State over (7) Dayton - 67.2%
(9) Vanderbilt over (8) Northwestern - 51.9%
(10) Marquette over (7) South Carolina - 50.7%
(11) Xavier over (6) Maryland - 49.7%
(10) Oklahoma State over (7) Michigan - 48.3%
(9) Michigan State over (8) Miami - 46.2%
(9) Seton Hall over (8) Arkansas - 45.3%
(12) Middle Tennessee over (5) Minnesota - 44.9%
(11) Rhode Island over (6) Creighton - 43.6%
(11) Kansas State/Wake Forest over (6) Cincinnati - 40.8%

Last season, 7 of the 10 upsets on my list happened, so these are definitely the first place to look for lower-seeded winners.

Most Likely #15 or #16 to Pull an Upset

(15) North Dakota over (2) Arizona - 16.0%
(15) Troy over (2) Duke - 14.4%
(15) Northern Kentucky over (2) Kentucky - 7.3%
(16) North Carolina Central/UC Davis over (1) Kansas - 7.1%
(15) Jacksonville State over (2) Louisville - 6.7%

There is a decent chance that one of the #15 seeds will go down this year, but only a couple are even worth thinking about on a bracket.

Most Likely Cinderellas

These are the lower seeds most likely to reach the Sweet 16.

(10) Wichita State - 32.2%
(10) Oklahoma State - 20.4%
(12) Middle Tennessee - 19.9%
(11) Xavier - 19.6%
(10) Marquette - 19.2%
(11) Rhode Island - 18.2%
(11) Kansas State/Wake Forest - 18.0%
(10) VCU - 15.6%
(9) Michigan State - 15.4%
(12) Nevada - 11.8%

Last year both Cinderellas (Gonzaga and Syracuse) were included on my list, so these are the best teams to look to if you want to see a deep run from a low seed.

Double-Digit Seeds in the Sweet 16

2.7

Last season's projection was 2.2, and there ended up being 2, so the projection was right on. Look for 2 or 3 this year.

#1 Seeds in the Final Four

1.2

Last year the number was 1.0, and exactly 1 (North Carolina) made it, so don't be picking too many of the top seeds to get there.

Odds of #1 Seed Winning the Tournament

39.2%

That is up slightly from last season's 33.4%, when it turned out that a #2 won it all.

Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams

(1) Gonzaga - 79.4%
(1) North Carolina - 75.1%
(1) Villanova - 70.1%
(1) Kansas - 63.0%
(2) Duke - 58.0%
(2) Kentucky - 56.4%
(2) Louisville - 56.0%
(4) West Virginia - 52.8%
(3) Florida State - 52.6%
(3) Oregon - 49.7%
(3) UCLA - 47.8%
(2) Arizona - 45.6%
(4) Florida - 44.4%
(3) Baylor - 43.0%
(4) Butler - 42.7%
(4) Purdue - 42.4%

(6) SMU - 41.1%
(5) Virginia - 39.0%
(7) Saint Mary's - 35.5%
(5) Iowa State - 35.2%
(10) Wichita State - 32.2%
(6) Cincinnati - 31.4%

Last year 10 of the 16 Sweet 16 teams were among my top 16 most likely, and 3 more were on the lower list, so expect a good number of these teams to make it through this weekend.

Most Likely Final Four Teams

(1) Gonzaga - 37.5%
(1) North Carolina - 31.8%
(1) Villanova - 27.3%
(2) Kentucky - 20.3%
(2) Louisville - 20.0%
(1) Kansas - 19.4%
(2) Duke - 16.1%
(4) West Virginia - 16.0%
(4) Florida - 12.9%
(4) Purdue - 12.8%
(3) Oregon - 12.7%
(3) Florida State - 12.6%
(3) UCLA - 10.8%
(5) Virginia - 10.5%
(6) SMU - 10.1%
(3) Baylor - 10.1%

Kansas is the #1 seed least likely to make it to the Final Four, but there are plenty of other good candidates from each region. Three of last year's Final Four were among the top 7 on my list.

Most Likely Champions

(1) Gonzaga - 14.6%
(1) North Carolina - 10.5%
(1) Villanova - 9.4%
(2) Kentucky - 6.2%
(2) Louisville - 5.3%
(4) West Virginia - 4.7%
(1) Kansas - 4.7%
(2) Duke - 4.1%
(4) Florida - 3.6%
(4) Purdue - 3.0%

Last year's champ, Villanova, had a 6.3% chance at the start of the tourney, which was #6 on my list, so these are the teams you should look at to finish off your bracket.

Overall Bracket

These are my picks for the entire bracket this season, with upset picks in italics.

First Round Winners

(1) Villanova
(8) Wisconsin
(5) Virginia
(4) Florida
(6) SMU
(3) Baylor
(10) Marquette
(2) Duke

(1) Gonzaga
(9) Vanderbilt
(5) Notre Dame
(4) West Virginia
(11) Xavier
(3) Florida State
(7) Saint Mary's
(2) Arizona

(1) Kansas
(9) Michigan State
(5) Iowa State
(4) Purdue
(11) Rhode Island
(3) Oregon
(10) Oklahoma State
(2) Louisville

(1) North Carolina
(9) Seton Hall
(12) Middle Tennessee
(4) Butler
(11) Kansas State/Wake Forest
(3) UCLA
(10) Wichita State
(2) Kentucky

That is 10 upset predictions for the first round.

Sweet 16

(1) Villanova
(5) Virginia
(6) SMU
(2) Duke

(1) Gonzaga
(4) West Virginia
(3) Florida State
(7) Saint Mary's

(1) Kansas
(5) Iowa State
(3) Oregon
(2) Louisville

(1) North Carolina
(4) Butler
(3) UCLA
(2) Kentucky

Elite Eight

(1) Villanova
(6) SMU

(1) Gonzaga
(7) Saint Mary's

(1) Kansas
(2) Louisville

(1) North Carolina
(2) Kentucky

Only the ACC and the WCC get more than 1 team in the Elite Eight.

Final Four

(1) Villanova
(1) Gonzaga
(2) Louisville
(2) Kentucky

Title Game

(1) Gonzaga
(2) Kentucky

Champion

(2) Kentucky