Best Teams Left Out
These are the teams that were rated highest by my ranking system, but were still left out of the field for various reasons:
(28) Clemson
(30) Texas
(31) NC State
(43) Nebraska
(44) Penn State
(45) Furman
I felt that the top 3 on this list would make the field, but they were left out, Texas most likely for their overall record, NC State for their non-conference SOS, and Clemson for their lack of good wins.
Lowest-Ranked At-Large Teams Selected
(53) Minnesota
(54) Washington
(56) Seton Hall
(63) Arizona State
(75) St. John's
(76) Temple
I did predict that the first 3 on this list would make the tournament, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they deserved it. The bottom 3 were among the last 4 selected, and all were surprises to me. You should probably not bet on these teams to make deep tournament runs. Of the 8 teams on last year's list, 5 lost in the first round, and another lost later in the weekend, so only 2 of the 8 did anything in the tournament. Arizona State is the only team that is making a repeat appearance on this list.
Most Underseeded Teams
These are the teams who are better than their seed shows according to where they rank among the 68 teams according to my ranking system:
1. Wofford
2. Florida
3. Belmont
4. Murray State
5. Auburn
6. Buffalo
7. Saint Mary's
8. Oregon
9. Yale
These teams could be in line to move farther along in the bracket than their seed might suggest. Last year's list of 5 included Loyola-Chicago, which famously made it all the way to the Final Four, as well as Butler, who upset Arkansas in the first round. Gonzaga made the list last year at all as a 4 seed, and made it to the Sweet 16 as expected.
Most Overseeded Teams
These are the teams who are not as good as their seed suggests:
1. Houston
2. LSU
3. Kansas State
4. Marquette
5. Ole Miss
6. Baylor
7. Washington
8. St. John's
9. Temple
These teams could be in line to be knocked out earlier than expected. Of the 9 teams on last year's list, 6 lost in the first round, 7 during the first weekend, and 5 of the 6 who played a lower seed were upset by them.
Number of First Round Upsets
8.7
This is nearly 1 lower than last year's projected of 9.5, which was as close as possible to the actual total of 9. The total number of upsets will most likely fall within the range of 7 to 10.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
(9) Oklahoma over (8) Ole Miss - 51.1%
(9) Baylor over (8) Syracuse - 47.0%
(10) Iowa over (7) Cincinnati - 46.9%
(9) UCF over (8) VCU - 46.7%
(10) Florida over (7) Nevada - 44.7%
(12) Murray State over (5) Marquette - 44.2%
(9) Washington over (8) Utah State - 44.2%
(11) Saint Mary's over (6) Villanova - 43.1%
(11) Belmont/Temple over (6) Maryland - 40.1%
Of the 10 upsets on this list last year, 6 ended up happening, so this is a great place to start when looking for upset picks.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to Win a Game
(15) Colgate over (2) Tennessee - 13.9%
(15) Montana over (2) Michigan - 12.1%
(15) Abilene Christian over (2) Kentucky - 10.9%
Last year I put the odds at 63% of seeing one of these upsets last year, and UMBC made it happen, though they were not on my list. These probably won't happen, but might be fun to toss into a bracket if you are filling out a lot of entries.
Most Likely Cinderellas
(12) Murray State - 19.4%
(12) Oregon - 16.6%
(11) Saint Mary's - 16.4%
(10) Florida - 16.1%
(10) Iowa - 16.1%
(11) Ohio State - 15.2%
(12) New Mexico State - 13.3%
(11) Belmont - 13.1%
(14) Yale - 11.7%
(12) Liberty - 11.2%
There were 4 Cinderellas in last year's field, and 2 were among the top 5 on my list, Loyola-Chicago and Florida State. If you want to see a high seed on the second weekend, these are by far the most likely.
Number of Cinderellas
2.7
Last year's projection was 3.3, so 4 was right in the range. Look for 2 or 3 to do it this year.
#1 Seeds in the Final Four
1.6
Last year's number was 1.1, and two made it, so my prediction was once again right in the range. This year 1 or 2 should make it again, so don't get too attached to chalk.
Odds of #1 Seed Winning the Tournament
57.5%
#1 seeds have won the last 2 championships, and the odds were a bit lower than this year, which is the highest I have seen since the year that Kentucky was undefeated entering the tournament, so despite what I said above about not strictly picking favorites, there is a great chance that the final team standing will be a top seed.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
(1) Gonzaga - 83.3%
(1) Virginia - 83.0%
(1) Duke - 81.5%
(1) North Carolina - 79.2%
(2) Michigan State - 73.4%
(2) Tennessee - 59.8%
(2) Michigan - 57.9%
(2) Kentucky - 57.4%
(3) Purdue - 54.7%
(4) Virginia Tech - 51.1%
(3) Texas Tech - 50.5%
(4) Florida State - 43.5%
(3) Houston - 42.6%
(5) Auburn - 40.6%
(3) LSU - 39.6%
(5) Wisconsin - 39.6%
(4) Kansas - 36.7%
(6) Iowa State - 35.6%
(6) Buffalo - 35.3%
(4) Kansas State - 34.1%
(5) Mississippi State - 32.3%
(6) Maryland - 31.3%
(7) Wofford - 30.5%
Last year, 8 of the actual Sweet 16 were on my top 16 list, and another 2 were on the lower portion of the list, so a good number of the teams here should still be alive next week.
Most Likely Final Four Teams
(1) Virginia - 45.0%
(1) Gonzaga - 43.8%
(1) Duke - 37.6%
(1) North Carolina - 37.2%
(2) Michigan State - 30.2%
(2) Kentucky - 18.4%
(2) Michigan - 16.8%
(2) Tennessee - 16.1%
(3) Purdue - 13.6%
(3) Texas Tech - 11.9%
3 of last year's Final Four were on my list, which is any team with at least a 10% chance of making it that far. Obviously, Loyola-Chicago was not on this list, though they were on all of my potential upset lists.
Most Likely Champions
(1) Virginia - 17.2%
(1) Gonzaga - 15.9%
(1) Duke - 13.1%
(1) North Carolina - 11.3%
(2) Michigan State - 9.3%
(2) Kentucky - 4.0%
(2) Michigan - 4.0%
(2) Tennessee - 3.7%
(3) Purdue - 2.9%
(3) Texas Tech - 2.4%
This list is the same as the one above. Last year's champ, Villanova, was #1 on my list, and the previous year's champ was #2, so these are the teams you should probably pick to make it to the end.
Most Common Nicknames
Bulldogs - 4
Wildcats - 4
Bears/Bruins/Grizzlies - 3
Devils (Blue/Sun) - 2
Eagles/Golden Eagles - 2
Knights - 2
Tigers - 2
Panthers - 2
Red Storm/Raiders - 2
Gaels - 2
Aggies - 2
Huskies - 2
Catamounts/Cougars - 2
Teams by State
New York - 5
Texas - 5
Virginia - 5
Kentucky - 4
North Carolina - 4
Florida - 3
California - 2
Iowa - 2
Kansas - 2
Michigan - 2
Mississippi - 2
New Jersey - 2
Ohio - 2
Pennsylvania - 2
Tennessee - 2
Washington - 2
Wisconsin - 2Alabama - 1
Arizona - 1
Connecticut - 1
Georgia - 1
Illinois - 1
Indiana - 1
Louisiana - 1
Maryland - 1
Massachusetts - 1
Minnesota - 1
Missouri - 1
Montana - 1
Nevada - 1
New Mexico - 1
North Dakota - 1
Oklahoma - 1
Oregon - 1
South Carolina - 1
Utah - 1
Vermont - 1
There are only 13 states not represented in this year's bracket.
My Picks
These are my picks for this year's entire bracket, with upset picks in italics.
First Round Winners
(1) Duke
(9) UCF
(5) Mississippi State
(4) Virginia Tech
(11) Belmont
(3) LSU
(7) Louisville
(2) Michigan State
(1) Gonzaga
(9) Baylor
(12) Murray State
(4) Florida State
(6) Buffalo
(3) Texas Tech
(10) Florida
(2) Michigan
(1) Virginia
(9) Oklahoma
(5) Wisconsin
(4) Kansas State
(11) Saint Mary's
(3) Purdue
(10) Iowa
(2) Tennessee
(1) North Carolina
(9) Washington
(5) Auburn
(4) Kansas
(6) Iowa State
(3) Houston
(7) Wofford
(2) Kentucky
I am picking 9 upsets in the first round this year.
Sweet 16
(1) Duke
(5) Mississippi State
(11) Belmont
(2) Michigan State
(1) Gonzaga
(4) Florida State
(6) Buffalo
(2) Michigan
(1) Virginia
(5) Wisconsin
(3) Purdue
(2) Tennessee
(1) North Carolina
(5) Auburn
(6) Iowa State
(7) Wofford
Belmont is my designated Cinderella, and they join 4 teams from the ACC, 4 from the Big 10, and 3 from the SEC.
Elite Eight
(1) Duke
(2) Michigan State
(1) Gonzaga
(2) Michigan
(1) Virginia
(3) Purdue
(1) North Carolina
(7) Wofford
I have all 4 #1 seeds making it this far, with 3 ACC teams and 3 Big 10 teams, along with Wofford and Gonzaga.
Final Four
(2) Michigan State
(1) Gonzaga
(1) Virginia
(1) North Carolina
It's really tough to pick against any of the #1 seeds this year, but I have a feeling Michigan State is going to be mad about not being one of them.
Championship
(2) Michigan State
(1) North Carolina
Champion
(2) Michigan State
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