NCAA Tournament Odds - 2018

It's time for my favorite post of the year, my breakdown of everything related to the NCAA Tournament. I have analyzed the data from every game played this year by all 351 Division I teams, and have used that to figure out the odds of any team beating any other team among those still remaining, as well as the odds of those matchups even taking place. Hope this helps you fill out a winning bracket!

Best Teams Left Out

(28) Penn State
(31) Louisville
(32) Notre Dame
(33) Saint Mary's
(36) Middle Tennessee
(40) Baylor
(42) USC
(44) Louisiana

These 8 teams were all ranked among my top 36 at-large teams at the close of the season, but were not selected for the tournament. These teams may be better than some in the tournament, and I felt that 5 of them (Louisville, Saint Mary's, Middle Tennessee, Baylor, and USC) deserved to make the field, but they were left out by the committee in a very difficult season to pick.

Lowest-Ranked At-Large Teams

(49) Oklahoma
(50) Arizona State
(53) Kansas State
(55) Syracuse
(59) St. Bonaventure
(62) Alabama
(67) UCLA
(70) Providence

If the best teams were put into the tournament rather than those seen as most deserving, these 8 would not have been in the field, though I included 3 of them (Oklahoma, Kansas State, and St. Bonaventure) in my bracket prediction, with the other 5 being the surprises I didn't see coming. Of the 3 teams that made this list last season, only one won a game, and they lost in the second round, so don't bet on these teams to make deep tournament runs, though a win or two would not be out of the question. Providence makes an appearance on this list for the second year in a row.

Most Underseeded Teams

These teams are the ones seeded at least two spots below where they should have been based on overall ranking, which means they could be in line to advance farther than expected:

1. Butler
2. Davidson
3. Gonzaga
4. Loyola-Chicago
5. Penn

These are the only 5 teams that were seeded at least 2 spots lower than they should have been, which is the smallest list I have ever had. Of the teams on last year's list, Wichita State, which topped the list, pulled off a first round upset, Florida reached the Elite 8, and Wisconsin reached the Sweet 16 by upsetting #1 Villanova. Butler is the only really bad seeding here, receiving a 10 instead of the 6 they should have had.

Most Overseeded Teams

1. Alabama
2. Kansas
3. Xavier
4. Arizona
5. Miami
6. Missouri
7. Kansas State
8. Providence
9. Charleston

Of the 10 teams on this list last season, 6 were upset by a lower seed, so these teams are good choices to drop from your bracket a little earlier than their seed would suggest.

Number of First Round Upsets

9.5

Last year the prediction was 9.2, and there were only 6, which was a little low, but the previous year there were 13 with a prediction of 9.2, and the previous year was low as well, so the pattern is pointing towards more upsets this season, with 8 to 11 being a likely range.

Most Likely First Round Upsets

(10) Butler over (7) Arkansas - 54.2%
(9) Florida State over (8) Missouri - 51.3%
(11) Loyola-Chicago over (6) Miami - 47.5%
(9) NC State over (8) Seton Hall - 46.3%
(10) Oklahoma over (7) Rhode Island - 46.0%
(10) Texas over (7) Nevada - 43.0%
(9) Kansas State over (8) Creighton - 42.7%
(12) Davidson over (5) Kentucky - 42.5%
(11) Syracuse/Arizona State over (6) TCU - 42.1%
(9) Alabama over (8) Virginia Tech - 42.0%

Of the 6 first round upsets last season, 5 were among the top 9 on my list, so these games are a good spot to start looking for your early upsets.

Most Likely #15 or #16 to Pull Off an Upset

(15) Georgia State over (2) Cincinnati - 21.2%
(16) Penn over (1) Kansas - 20.7%
(15) Lipscomb over (2) North Carolina - 8.2%
(15) Iona over (2) Duke - 7.5%
(15) CS Fullerton over (2) Purdue - 6.2%

These upsets rarely happen, but there is a 63% chance of seeing one of them this year. No #16 has ever beaten a #1, but underseeded Penn has the best chance in history of doing it against overseeded Kansas.

Most Likely Cinderellas

(12) Davidson - 20.9%
(11) Loyola-Chicago - 20.1%
(10) Butler - 19.9%
(9) NC State - 19.4%
(9) Florida State - 18.8%
(10) Texas - 16.2%
(12) Murray State - 15.9%
(13) Buffalo - 15.1%
(11) San Diego State - 14.8%
(12) New Mexico State - 13.8%

Last year's lone Cinderella (Xavier) was #4 on my list last season, so this is the best place to look for a deep run from a low seed, but don't pick too many.

Low Seeds in the Sweet 16

3.3

Last season's number was 2.7, so getting only 1 was a little low, but seeing 3 or 4 this year wouldn't be a surprise. Look at the list above for the best candidates.

#1 Seeds in the Final Four

1.1

Last season's number was 1.2, and 2 made it, so don't pick too many of the top seeds to get to the final weekend.

Odds of #1 Seed Winning the Tournament

38.6%

This is down just slightly from last year, when #1 North Carolina won it all.

Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams

(1) Villanova - 81.4%
(1) Virginia - 74.7%
(2) Duke - 72.5%
(2) North Carolina - 66.0%
(2) Purdue - 63.8%
(1) Xavier - 63.6%
(3) Michigan State - 54.0%
(3) Tennessee - 51.1%
(2) Cincinnati - 51.0%
(1) Kansas - 49.5%
(4) Auburn - 44.9%
(4) Gonzaga - 44.8%
(3) Texas Tech - 44.0%
(3) Michigan - 42.0%
(4) Wichita State - 40.4%
(5) West Virginia - 36.5%

(5) Ohio State - 35.2%
(5) Clemson - 35.1%
(6) Houston - 34.0%
(5) Kentucky - 32.7%
(4) Arizona - 31.4%
(6) Florida - 30.9%

Last season 12 of the actual Sweet 16 teams were among my 16 most likely, so you should see a pretty good number of them still alive after this weekend.

Most Likely Final Four Teams

(1) Villanova - 42.8%
(1) Virginia - 37.6%
(2) Duke - 34.2%
(2) North Carolina - 25.1%
(2) Purdue - 20.8%
(1) Xavier - 17.8%
(3) Michigan State - 16.6%
(2) Cincinnati - 15.9%
(4) Gonzaga - 13.9%
(1) Kansas - 13.1%
(3) Tennessee - 12.4%
(3) Michigan - 11.1%
(4) Auburn - 10.2%

Last season, the top 2 teams on my list made the Final Four, along with Oregon, which was #11 on my list. This us the second straight year that Kansas is the least likely #1 to reach the Final Four.

Most Likely Champions

(1) Villanova - 18.4%
(1) Virginia - 13.7%
(2) Duke - 12.3%
(2) North Carolina - 6.8%
(2) Purdue - 6.2%
(3) Michigan State - 4.4%
(2) Cincinnati - 4.0%
(1) Xavier - 3.6%
(4) Gonzaga - 3.1%
(1) Kansas - 2.8%

Last year's champ was #2 on this list, while the runners-up were #1 on the list, so you probably don't want to look much beyond this list for your winner.

Random Odds

All-ACC Title Game - 9.9% (Virginia-Duke most likely)
All-Big East Final - 3.2% (Villanova-Xavier most likely)
All-Big 10 Final - 1.8% (Michigan-Purdue most likely)
All-Wildcat Final - 1.8% (Kentucky-Villanova most likely)
All-SEC Final - 0.7% (Auburn-Tennessee most likely)
All-American Final - 0.3% (Cincinnati-Wichita State most likely)
All-Big 12 Final - 0.2% (Kansas-Texas most likely)
All-ACC Final Four - 0.1% (Virginia Tech drags this down)

Most Common Nicknames

Wildcats - 5
Tigers - 4
Wolf Pack/Wolfpack - 2
Bulldogs - 2
Spartans - 2
Cougars - 2
Aggies - 2
Bison/Bisons - 2
Devils (Blue/Sun) - 2

Teams By State

Texas - 7
North Carolina - 6
New York - 5
Ohio - 4
California - 3
Florida - 3
Kansas - 3
Pennsylvania - 3
Virginia - 3
Alabama - 2
Arizona - 2
Indiana - 2
Kentucky - 2
Michigan - 2
Rhode Island - 2
South Carolina - 2
Tennessee - 2
West Virginia - 2
Arkansas - 1
Georgia - 1
Illinois - 1
Maryland - 1
Missouri - 1
Montana - 1
Nebraska - 1
Nevada - 1
New Jersey - 1
New Mexico - 1
Oklahoma - 1
South Dakota - 1
Washington - 1

19 states are not represented.

Overall Bracket

These are my picks for the entire bracket, with upset picks in italics.

First Round Winners

(1) Virginia
(9) Kansas State
(12) Davidson
(4) Arizona
(11) Loyola-Chicago
(3) Tennessee
(10) Texas
(2) Cincinnati

(1) Xavier
(9) Florida State
(5) Ohio State
(4) Gonzaga
(6) Houston
(3) Michigan
(10) Providence
(2) North Carolina

(1) Villanova
(9) Alabama
(5) West Virginia
(4) Wichita State
(6) Florida
(3) Texas Tech
(10) Butler
(2) Purdue

(1) Kansas
(9) NC State
(5) Clemson
(4) Auburn
(11) Arizona State/Syracuse
(3) Michigan State
(10) Oklahoma
(2) Duke

I am picking 11 upsets in the first round this season.

Sweet 16

(1) Virginia
(12) Davidson
(3) Tennessee
(2) Cincinnati

(1) Xavier
(5) Ohio State
(6) Houston
(2) North Carolina

(1) Villanova
(5) West Virginia
(6) Florida
(2) Purdue

(1) Kansas
(5) Clemson
(3) Michigan State
(2) Duke

Davidson is my Cinderella pick, taking out two fellow Wildcats on the way. 4 ACC teams make the Sweet 16, along with 3 from the Big 10, 2 from the SEC, 2 from the American, 2 from the Big East, and 2 from the Big 12.

Elite Eight

(1) Virginia
(3) Tennessee

(5) Ohio State
(2) North Carolina

(1) Villanova
(2) Purdue

(5) Clemson
(3) Michigan State

3 teams each from the Big 10 and ACC make the Elite Eight, with Villanova and Tennessee the only loners.

Final Four

(1) Virginia
(5) Ohio State
(1) Villanova
(3) Michigan State

2 #1 teams make the Final Four, along with 2 Big 10 teams.

Title Game

(1) Virginia
(1) Villanova

Champion

(1) Villanova