There have been a total of 6109 games played this year in college basketball, with only 67 to go that matter (I'm not counting the NIT, CBI, etc.). Using the results of each of those games and plugging the teams into the bracket that was released on Sunday, I've calculated each team's odds of advancing through each round of the tournament and ending up as the champion, along with some other tips and tidbits that may help you fill out a winning bracket. Enjoy!
Best Teams Left Out
35. Rutgers
37. North Carolina
43. Liberty
44. Oklahoma State
45. Yale
Yale lost on Sunday to Princeton, which ended their chance of making the field, and Liberty fell to Kennesaw State in their tournament to suffer the same fate. Rutgers and North Carolina were popular picks to make the tournament, and Rutgers was one of the two teams I picked incorrectly to make the field. Oklahoma State was one of the official first teams out, with the committee deciding not to make them the first 15-loss team to make the field as an at-large. These teams are often good bets to win the NIT, though North Carolina turned down the invite.
Worst At-Large Teams Selected
52. Mississippi State
53. Nevada
55. Missouri
68. Arizona State
69. Pittsburgh
4 of these teams were the final 4 selected to participate. Generally these teams do not make deep tournament runs, though last year 2 of the 7 reached the Sweet 16.
Teams That are Better than their Seed
1. West Virginia
2. Utah State
3. UConn
4. Creighton
5. Arkansas
6. Memphis
7. Auburn
8. FAU
9. Iona
10. Tennessee
These teams are seeded lower than they should be given their talent, many due to weaker schedules overall, and some due to piling up losses against a strong schedule. These teams are good bets to go farther than expected in the tournament. Last season Houston made a run to the Elite 8 from the 5-seed, and Michigan reached the Sweet 16 as an 11, and both were on this list.
Teams That are Worse than their Seed
1. Virginia
2. Miami
3. Missouri
4. Kansas State
5. Indiana
6. Northwestern
7. Duke
8. TCU
9. Kentucky
10. Pittsburgh
Most of these teams either got lucky a few times and got wins they shouldn't have, or play in a conference that is weaker than usual but still has a good reputation (looking at you, ACC). 3 of the teams on this list lost on opening weekend last year in upsets, and 5 others also didn't see the second weekend.
Projected First Round Upsets
10.7
Last year's projection was only 9.8, so expect to see even more upsets this year. There ended up being 10 last season, so the projection was right on, and this year I expect to see somewhere between 9 and 13.
Most Likely First Round Upsets
(10) Utah State over (7) Missouri - 59.3%
(9) Auburn over (8) Iowa - 54.2%
(10) Boise State over (7) Northwestern - 51.92%
(9) West Virginia over (8) Maryland - 51.88%
(9) FAU over (8) Memphis - 48.0%
(11) Providence over (6) Kentucky - 47.6%
(10) USC over (7) Michigan State - 46.8%
(12) Drake over (5) Miami - 45.6%
(9) Illinois over (8) Arkansas - 45.2%
(10) Penn State over (7) Texas A&M - 44.8%
(13) Kent State over (4) Indiana - 41.9%
(11) Arizona State/Nevada over (6) TCU - 41.85%
(11) Mississippi State/Pittsburgh over (6) Iowa State - 41.77%
(12) Charleston over (5) San Diego State - 41.5%
There are 14 first round games with very strong upset potential here, including 4 where the lower seed is actually favored by my formula. 5 of the 10 first-round upsets last year were on my list, including 3 of the top 6.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to Win a Game
(15) Vermont over (2) Marquette - 25.2%
(15) Colgate over (2) Texas - 22.8%
(15) Princeton over (2) Arizona - 21.8%
(15) UNC Asheville over (2) UCLA - 11.9%
We saw another example of a 15-seed taking down a 2-seed last year with Saint Peter's, who was second on my list, and the odds of it happening this year are much higher, as last season no team on the list had more than a 14% chance of winning.
Most Likely Cinderellas
(10) Utah State - 28.3%
(11) Providence - 24.4%
(12) Charleston - 21.2%
(13) Kent State - 20.3%
(12) Drake - 20.2%
(10) USC - 20.1%
(10) Boise State - 18.4%
(11) Mississippi State/Pittsburgh - 18.3%
(10) Penn State - 18.0%
(11) NC State - 17.6%
(11) Arizona State/Nevada - 16.2%
(13) Iona - 14.3%
(12) VCU - 14.2%
(13) Furman - 14.0%
(12) Oral Roberts - 13.2%
4 double-digit seeds made it to at least the Sweet 16 last season, and 3 were among the top 10 on this list. There is a very good chance we'll see multiple teams from the list above still playing in a week.
Projected Number of Cinderellas
3.5
This is up from last season's projection of 2.9, which ultimately ended up with 4 surprise teams, so don't be surprised if you see 5 this year.
#1 Seeds in the Final Four
1.0
It's always tempting to just move the higher seed up through each round, but that may not be smart. Last season's number was 1.1, so it's dropped even more this season, and only one #1 seed made the Final Four, right on target.
Odds of a #1 Seed Winning the Tournament
34.4%
This is also down from last season's 38.1%, which did end up ultimately resulting in #1 Kansas winning, but the odds of seeing a top seed cutting down the nets is smaller this year. #1 seeds have won the last 5, but the odds of it happening have never been this low.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
(1) Alabama - 65.7%
(1) Houston - 65.3%
(2) UCLA - 61.8%
(1) Purdue - 60.5%
(1) Kansas - 54.6%
(4) Tennessee - 51.6%
(3) Gonzaga - 49.7%
(2) Texas - 48.9%
(2) Arizona - 48.7%
(2) Marquette - 46.2%
(4) UConn - 43.9%
(3) Xavier - 43.7%
(3) Baylor - 39.2%
(3) Kansas State - 38.2%
(6) Creighton - 36.2%
(5) San Diego State - 34.8%
(4) Indiana - 32.9%
(6) Iowa State - 30.2%
(4) Virginia - 30.0%
9 of the 16 most likely teams actually reached the Sweet 16 last season, which is around what you would expect when you factor in the Cinderella teams. Pay attention to teams that are higher or lower than the rest of their seedmates, like Tennessee or Kansas State.
Most Likely Final Four Teams
(1) Alabama - 31.9%
(1) Houston - 31.0%
(2) UCLA - 24.0%
(1) Purdue - 22.0%
(4) Tennessee - 17.6%
(2) Texas - 16.6%
(1) Kansas - 15.8%
(2) Arizona - 14.7%
(4) UConn - 14.4%
(2) Marquette - 14.1%
(3) Gonzaga - 13.3%
(3) Xavier - 10.5%
3 of last season's Final Four teams were among the top 10 on this list, so it's a good idea to grab at least a couple of these when filling out your bracket.
Most Likely Champions
(1) Alabama - 12.6%
(1) Houston - 11.2%
(2) UCLA - 8.4%
(1) Purdue - 6.3%
(4) Tennessee - 5.0%
(2) Texas - 4.7%
(4) UConn - 4.6%
(1) Kansas - 4.4%
(2) Arizona - 4.1%
(3) Gonzaga - 3.6%
(2) Marquette - 3.4%
(3) Xavier - 2.2%
(6) Creighton - 2.1%
Since 2016, one of the top 4 teams on this list has won the tournament every year, including Kansas, who had the third-best odds last year. Alabama's top odds are the lowest of any favorite in as long as I can remember, so there are a lot of teams with a good shot of winning it all.
Most Common Nicknames
Tigers - 5
Wildcats - 4
Bulldogs - 4
Cougars/Catamounts - 3
Bears/Bruins - 2
Wolf Pack/Wolfpack - 2
Aggies - 2
Blue/Sun Devils - 2
Golden Eagles - 2
Hurricanes/Cyclones - 2
Owls - 2
Gaels - 2
Teams by State
Texas - 7
California - 5
Arizona - 3
Iowa - 3
North Carolina - 3
Alabama - 2
Florida - 2
Illinois - 2
Indiana - 2
Kansas - 2
Kentucky - 2
Missouri - 2
New Jersey - 2
New York - 2
Ohio - 2
Pennsylvania - 2
South Carolina - 2
Tennessee - 2
Virginia - 2
Arkansas - 1
Connecticut - 1
District of Columbia - 1
Georgia - 1
Idaho - 1
Louisiana - 1
Maryland - 1
Michigan - 1
Mississippi - 1
Montana - 1
Nebraska - 1
Nevada - 1
Oklahoma - 1
Rhode Island - 1
Utah - 1
Vermont - 1
Washington - 1
Wisconsin - 1
My Picks
First Round Winners
(1) Alabama
(9) West Virginia
(5) San Diego State
(4) Virginia
(6) Creighton
(3) Baylor
(10) Utah State
(2) Arizona
(1) Purdue
(9) FAU
(5) Duke
(4) Tennessee
(6) Kentucky
(3) Kansas State
(7) Michigan State
(2) Marquette
(1) Houston
(9) Auburn
(12) Drake
(13) Kent State
(6) Iowa State
(3) Xavier
(10) Penn State
(2) Texas
(1) Kansas
(9) Illinois
(12) VCU
(4) UConn
(11) Arizona State/Nevada
(3) Gonzaga
(10) Boise State
(2) UCLA
That makes 11 first-round upsets, right in the sweet spot, and nothing too crazy.
Sweet 16
(1) Alabama
(5) San Diego State
(6) Creighton
(10) Utah State
(9) FAU
(5) Duke
(6) Kentucky
(2) Marquette
(1) Houston
(12) Drake
(6) Iowa State
(2) Texas
(1) Kansas
(4) UConn
(3) Gonzaga
(2) UCLA
Only going with 2 Cinderella teams, and I feel like it's a little low, but it's tough to pick another 1 or 2.
Elite Eight
(1) Alabama
(10) Utah State
(9) FAU
(2) Marquette
(1) Houston
(2) Texas
(4) UConn
(3) Gonzaga
Final Four
(1) Alabama
(9) FAU
(2) Texas
(3) Gonzaga
Championship
(1) Alabama
(2) Texas
Champion
(2) Texas
Texas rides the high of winning the conference tournament in the toughest conference in the country to a championship.
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