It's time for my favorite post of the year, one that didn't happen last season because of the cancellation of March Madness. 68 teams have been selected, none opted out before the deadline due to COVID, so the teams are now locked into place. I have analyzed the results of every game by all 347 teams that participated this season (nearly 4200 games in all) in order to rank each team and calculate their odds of advancing through each round of the upcoming tournament and winning the championship. Hopefully this information can help you fill out a winning bracket (unless you're competing against me).
Best Teams Left Out
(34) Arizona
(36) Memphis
(41) Penn State
(44) Seton Hall
(45) Duke
(47) Saint Louis
Arizona was ineligible to participate due to a self-imposed postseason ban, but the other 5 teams on this list were all on my list of those teams that were likely to just barely miss the tournament. The one team I picked wrong in my bracket prediction on Sunday (Louisville), was ranked #59 in my final rankings, so I felt they were undeserving of a spot but would likely get one anyway. The second-best team on my 2019 version of this list (Texas) ended up winning the NIT, and they are a 3-seed in this year's tournament.
Lowest-Ranked At-Large Teams Selected
(52) VCU
(54) Syracuse
(57) Drake
(72) Michigan State
(76) Virginia Tech
I correctly predicted that each of these teams would make the tournament, but that doesn't mean they were among the best teams available. Michigan State pulled off a couple of huge upset wins earlier this month to earn their spot, and the others either were mediocre in a great conference or pretty good in a mediocre conference. Of the six teams on this list in 2019, none made it to the Sweet 16, and only 2 won a game in the tournament.
Most Underseeded Teams
These are the teams that are better than their seed would suggest according to where they rank among the 68 teams in my rating system:
1. Colgate
2. USC
3. UConn
4. Wisconsin
5. Abilene Christian
6. Colorado
7. Villanova
8. UCLA
3 Pac 12 teams made this list, showing a lack of respect for the league in general, though it has been down for several years now, but this is the strongest group of teams from the conference in quite a while. 5 of the 9 teams on this list in 2019 pulled off upsets in the tournament, including Oregon, who made the Sweet 16 as a 12 seed, and Auburn, who pulled off 3 straight upsets on their way to the Final Four as a 5 seed. These teams are a good place to look for early upsets or possible Cinderellas.
Most Overseeded Teams
These are the teams who are not as good as their seed would suggest:
1. Kansas
2. Oklahoma State
3. Clemson
4. Texas
5. West Virginia
6. Virginia
7. Virginia Tech
8. Florida
9. Oklahoma
10. Wichita State
5 of these teams are from the Big 12, and another 3 are from the ACC, so it appears that those 2 conferences were given a lot more credit by the committee than they might have deserved. Of the 9 teams on this list in 2019, two lost in play-in games, 3 lost in first-round upsets, and two more lost in the second round, with only two 3-seeds making it to the Sweet 16 before losing, meaning only the 2 9-seeds made it farther than expected (by beating an 8-seed). These teams are unlikely to make it deep into the tournament.
Number of First Round Upsets
10.1
This number is a bit bigger than the 8.7 projection from last time, when there ended up being 12, which was higher than expected. The number this year is likely to fall somewhere between 9 and 11.
Most Likely First-Round Upsets
(10) Rutgers over (7) Clemson - 53.2%
(9) Wisconsin over (8) North Carolina - 53.1%
(14) Colgate over (3) Arkansas - 52.2%
(9) Missouri over (8) Oklahoma - 48.3%
(9) St. Bonaventure over (8) LSU - 48.2%
(9) Georgia Tech over (8) Loyola Chicago - 43.6%
(11) Utah State over (6) Texas Tech - 42.6%
(10) VCU over (7) Oregon - 42.0%
(10) Maryland over (7) UConn - 40.1%
With 9 possible upsets on this list last time, the top 7 all happened, including 12-seeded Murray State knocking off 5-seed Marquette, so this list is a great place to start your search for upsets.
Most Likely #15 or #16 to Win a Game
(15) Grand Canyon over (2) Iowa - 19.9%
(15) Oral Roberts over (2) Ohio State - 13.9%
(15) Iona over (2) Alabama - 10.7%
These upsets don't happen often, but if you're feeling adventurous, maybe try tossing one of these teams in for an upset.
Most Likely Cinderellas
(14) Colgate - 30.3%
(10) Rutgers - 18.0%
(12) UCSB - 17.8%
(11) Syracuse - 17.6%
(11) Utah State - 16.5%
(10) Maryland - 15.0%
(14) Abilene Christian - 14.8%
(10) VCU - 14.3%
(11) UCLA - 12.9%
(12) Oregon State - 12.7%
(12) Georgetown - 12.6%
(12) Winthrop - 12.2%
(13) North Texas - 12.1%
(10) Virginia Tech - 12.0%
(14) Eastern Washington - 11.2%
(13) Liberty - 11.0%
This is the strongest field of potential Cinderellas (double digit seeds) I have ever seen in all my years of following the tournament. Only 1 double-digit seed made the Sweet 16 in 2019 (Oregon), and they were #2 on my list of the most likely. The top of this list is the best place to start if you want to pick a surprise team to make a deep run.
Number of Cinderellas
3.1
My projection last time was 2.7, so 1 was obviously lower than expected, but I feel like there are several good options to pick from this season.
#1 Seeds in the Final Four
1.4
Last time I projected 1.6, and there ended up being only 1, so it's just as unlikely as usual to see more than two of the #1 seeds make it all the way to the final weekend.
Odds of a #1 Seed Winning the Tournament
52.4%
#1 seeds have won 3 tournaments in a row, and it's still slightly more likely to happen than not this year. In 2019, the number was 57.5%, so the threats from below are a little stronger this year.
Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams
(1) Gonzaga - 85.1%
(1) Michigan - 68.0%
(2) Houston - 66.2%
(1) Illinois - 66.1%
(1) Baylor - 64.7%
(2) Ohio State - 56.8%
(2) Alabama - 54.7%
(2) Iowa - 54.3%
(6) USC - 45.7%
(5) Colorado - 42.7%
(3) West Virginia - 41.43%
(5) Villanova - 41.39%
(5) Tennessee - 41.3%
(5) Creighton - 37.6%
(6) San Diego State - 35.3%
(4) Virginia - 35.1%
(4) Oklahoma State - 34.89%
(4) Florida State - 34.88%
(4) Purdue - 34.3%
(6) BYU - 33.9%
(3) Texas - 33.3%
(3) Kansas - 31.3%
(14) Colgate - 30.3%
In 2019, 15 of the top 16 in my projection made the actual Sweet 16, with Cinderella Oregon the only one that didn't appear on my list. It seems unlikely that I will do that well again, but these are definitely the teams to be looking at to still be alive after this weekend.
Most Likely Final Four Teams
(1) Gonzaga - 36.8%
(1) Illinois - 29.7%
(1) Michigan - 29.4%
(1) Baylor - 27.8%
(2) Houston - 24.6%
(2) Alabama - 18.2%
(2) Ohio State - 16.2%
(2) Iowa - 14.8%
(5) Colorado - 10.3%
Of the Final Four Teams in 2019, 3 were on my list of those with at least a 10% chance of making it. This year, it's a list of the top 8 teams, plus a surprise in Colorado, who in my opinion has a pretty easy opening weekend which could help them make a surprise run.
Most Likely Champions
(1) Gonzaga - 26.1%
(1) Illinois - 9.3%
(1) Michigan - 8.7%
(1) Baylor - 8.2%
(2) Houston - 6.7%
(2) Iowa - 4.5%
(2) Alabama - 4.2%
(2) Ohio State - 3.4%
(6) USC - 2.3%
Another list of the top 8 seeds, with the addition of a surprise team from the Pac 12. Gonzaga is a clear favorite, and the top team on this list has won the tournament each of the last 2 seasons, with the #2 team winning the year before that, so don't be surprised to see the Bulldogs win the first title in their history this year.
Most Common Nicknames
Tigers - 4
Eagles/Golden Eagles - 4
Spartans - 3
Mountaineers - 3
Bulldogs - 2
Wildcats - 2
Cougars - 2
Bruins/Bears - 2
Raiders/Red Raiders - 2
Bulldogs and Wildcats had 4 each last time, but they have been replaced by Tigers and Eagles this year. All 3 Mountaineers in the country made the tournament this season.
Teams by State
Texas - 7
Virginia - 5
California - 4
New York - 4
North Carolina - 3
Ohio - 3
Oklahoma - 3
Connecticut - 2
Florida - 2
Illinois - 2
Iowa - 2
Kansas - 2
Maryland - 2
Michigan - 2
Oregon - 2
Pennsylvania - 2
South Carolina - 2
Utah - 2
Washington - 2
Alabama - 1
Arizona - 1
Arkansas - 1
Colorado - 1
District of Columbia - 1
Georgia - 1
Indiana - 1
Kentucky - 1
Louisiana - 1
Missouri - 1
Nebraska - 1
New Jersey - 1
Tennessee - 1
West Virginia - 1
Wisconsin - 1
17 states are not represented this year, including Alaska, which has no Division I teams. Texas has the most teams once again, but moved up from 5 to 7 this season. Interestingly, all three states that begin with O saw both of their state universities make the field (OU and OSU for all 3).
My Picks
First Round Winners
(1) Gonzaga
(9) Missouri
(5) Creighton
(4) Virginia
(6) USC
(3) Kansas
(10) VCU
(2) Iowa
(1) Michigan
(9) St. Bonaventure
(5) Colorado
(4) Florida State
(6) BYU
(3) Texas
(10) Maryland
(2) Alabama
(1) Baylor
(9) Wisconsin
(5) Villanova
(4) Purdue
(11) Utah State
(14) Colgate
(7) Florida
(2) Ohio State
(1) Illinois
(9) Georgia Tech
(5) Tennessee
(4) Oklahoma State
(6) San Diego State
(3) West Virginia
(10) Rutgers
(2) Houston
That comes to a total of 9 upsets in the first round
Sweet 16
(1) Gonzaga
(5) Creighton
(6) USC
(2) Iowa
(1) Michigan
(5) Colorado
(6) BYU
(2) Alabama
(1) Baylor
(5) Villanova
(14) Colgate
(2) Ohio State
(1) Illinois
(5) Tennessee
(6) San Diego State
(2) Houston
I have all of the ones and twos, but none of the threes or fours making it this far. There are 4 teams from the Big 10, along with 2 each from the WCC, Pac 12, Big East, and SEC. Colgate is my designated Cinderella.
Elite Eight
(1) Gonzaga
(6) USC
(1) Michigan
(6) BYU
(1) Baylor
(14) Colgate
(1) Illinois
(2) Houston
This group has two teams each from the WCC and Big 10, along with all 4 of the #1 seeds.
Final Four
(1) Gonzaga
(1) Michigan
(1) Baylor
(2) Houston
It's tough to pick against any of the #1 teams again this year, but Houston has been really good lately, and I feel they have the best chance of breaking up the 1 seed party.
Championship
(1) Gonzaga
(2) Houston
Two mid-major schools making it to the title game would be legendary.
Champion
(1) Gonzaga
I just can't see Gonzaga losing this year, since they've already beaten the 2, 3, and 4 seeds in their own region already this year, and only won by less than 10 once all season.
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