NBA Rankings - 4 Dec

As the In-Season Tournament elimination games are set to start, here is my ranking of all 30 teams in the league, along with their projected final record and playoff seeding. The hottest team over the past 3 weeks has been Oklahoma City, which has climbed to #3 overall, and is currently the best team in the West. The best overall team is still Boston, who is the favorite to win both the real championship and the in-season version happening this week. Here are my full current rankings, with the hottest teams in green and coldest teams in red:

				Record		Proj
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	Seed
1	1	Boston	-9.251	15	4	64	17	E1
2	2	Philadelphia	-7.245	12	7	59	23	E2
3	15	Oklahoma City	-6.99	13	6	59	23	W2
4	3	Minnesota	-6.682	15	4	61	21	W1
5	7	New York	-4.605	12	7	52	29	E3
6	4	Denver	-3.894	14	7	53	29	W3
7	11	Orlando	-3.145	14	6	51	31	E4
8	13	Houston	-2.31	8	9	46	36	W4
9	12	Brooklyn	-2.203	10	9	46	36	E6
10	6	Golden State	-1.915	9	11	46	36	W5
11	16	Milwaukee	-1.881	14	6	48	33	E5
12	10	Indiana	-1.606	10	8	44	37	E7
13	14	LA Clippers	-1.451	9	10	43	39	W8
14	20	Sacramento	-1.193	11	7	45	36	W6
15	5	Atlanta	-1.133	9	10	43	39	E8
16	18	Phoenix	-0.918	12	8	44	37	W7
17	19	Miami	-0.606	11	9	43	39	E9
18	17	Cleveland	-0.528	11	9	43	39	E10
19	21	New Orleans	-0.489	11	10	42	39	W9
20	22	LA Lakers	0.0588	12	9	42	39	W10
21	8	Dallas	0.5421	11	8	41	41
22	9	Toronto	0.9009	9	11	38	44
23	24	Chicago	4.6124	7	14	28	54
24	25	Portland	6.0005	6	13	24	58
25	29	Utah	6.646	7	13	23	59
26	30	Memphis	6.7108	5	14	22	60
27	26	Charlotte	7.3595	6	12	22	60
28	27	Washington	7.4018	3	16	19	63
29	23	Detroit	8.4305	2	18	16	66
30	28	San Antonio	8.9796	3	16	17	65

In-Season Tournament Odds

Odds of Reaching Semifinals

Celtics - 68.8%

Kings - 61.5%

Lakers - 55.4%

Knicks - 51.1%

Bucks - 48.9%

Suns - 44.6%

Pelicans - 38.5%

Pacers - 31.2%

Odds of Reaching Championship Game

Celtics - 48.9%

Kings - 32.6%

Lakers - 25.7%

Suns - 22.3%

Knicks - 21.4%

Pelicans - 19.4%

Bucks - 16.0%

Pacers - 13.7%

Odds of Winning Championship

Celtics - 38.8%

Knicks - 13.8%

Kings - 10.8%

Bucks - 8.7%

Lakers - 7.5%

Pacers - 7.3%

Suns - 7.2%

Pelicans - 6.0%

My Picks

Quarterfinals

Suns over Lakers

Kings over Pelicans

Celtics over Pacers

Knicks over Bucks

Semifinals

Suns over Kings

Celtics over Knicks

Championship

Celtics over Suns

NBA Playoff Odds Update - After Round 1 Game 2

Here is how each team's odds look currently of advancing through each round and of winning the championship, with change since the playoffs began in parentheses:

Odds of Winning First Round

(2) Celtics - 96.1% (+9.2)

(3) 76ers - 92.2% (+17.3)

(1) Nuggets - 88.1% (+19.3)

(3) Kings - 82.2% (+25.5)

(1) Bucks - 70.7% (-9.5)

(2) Grizzlies - 63.8% (-10.7)

(4) Cavaliers - 61.7% (-7.5)

(4) Suns - 57.7% (-7.7)

(5) Clippers - 42.3% (+7.7)

(5) Knicks - 38.3% (+7.5)

(7) Lakers - 36.2% (+10.7)

(8) Heat - 29.3% (+9.5)

(6) Warriors - 17.8% (-25.5)

(8) Timberwolves - 11.9% (-19.3)

(6) Nets - 7.8% (-17.3)

(7) Hawks - 3.9% (-9.2)

The biggest change has been in the Kings-Warriors series, also the only one that I picked to end with the lower seed winning, which has not been the case so far. All higher seeds are still favorites, even though 4 have lost home court advantage.

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

(2) Celtics - 63.4% (+2.8)

(1) Nuggets - 58.8% (+14.9)

(4) Cavaliers - 40.6% (-2.5)

(2) Grizzlies - 39.8% (-8.6)

(3) Kings - 39.2% (+14.4)

(1) Bucks - 34.8% (-4.4)

(3) 76ers - 34.6% (+4.1)

(4) Suns - 24.3% (-7.7)

(5) Knicks - 19.0% (+4.8)

(7) Lakers - 13.3% (+4.0)

(5) Clippers - 12.8% (+0.0)

(6) Warriors - 7.7% (-9.7)

(8) Heat - 5.6% (+2.1)

(8) Timberwolves - 4.2% (-7.1)

(6) Nets - 1.3% (-4.1)

(7) Hawks - 0.1% (-3.4)

Denver and Sacramento have outperformed expectations so far, leading to big jumps in their odds. The Knicks and Lakers have made the biggest jumps among the lower seeds.

Odds of Making NBA Finals

(2) Celtics - 41.8% (+3.3)

(1) Nuggets - 35.0% (+10.3)

(2) Grizzlies - 22.1% (-7.5)

(3) 76ers - 19.0% (+3.3)

(3) Kings - 18.4% (+5.8)

(4) Cavaliers - 18.4% (-2.5)

(1) Bucks - 14.1% (-3.4)

(4) Suns - 11.2% (-3.3)

(5) Knicks - 5.5% (+0.9)

(7) Lakers - 4.5% (+1.1)

(5) Clippers - 4.3% (+0.1)

(6) Warriors - 3.1% (-4.6)

(8) Timberwolves - 1.2% (-2.1)

(8) Heat - 0.8% (+0.3)

(6) Nets - 0.3% (-1.1)

(7) Hawks - 0.2% (-0.6)

A 2-0 lead and a loss by Memphis have made the Nuggets the favorites in the West, while Boston is still cruising in the East.

Odds of Winning NBA Finals

(2) Celtics - 31.9% (+2.5)

(3) 76ers - 12.6% (+2.3)

(1) Nuggets - 12.6% (+3.9)

(4) Cavaliers - 12.5% (-1.8)

(1) Bucks - 8.7% (-2.3)

(2) Grizzlies - 8.0% (-3.5)

(3) Kings - 5.1% (+1.5)

(4) Suns - 3.0% (-1.1)

(5) Knicks - 2.7% (+0.3)

(7) Lakers - 0.8% (+0.2)

(5) Clippers - 0.8% (+0.0)

(6) Warriors - 0.7% (-1.2)

(8) Heat - 0.2% (+0.0)

(8) Timberwolves - 0.2% (-0.3)

(6) Nets - 0.1% (-0.4)

(7) Hawks - 0.1% (-0.2)

Once again, it's Denver on the rise and the Grizzlies falling. Boston is a heavy favorite at this point, with 5 more teams grouped pretty close together behind them.

NBA Rankings - 25 Nov

In the past few weeks, the Sacramento Kings went from out of the playoff picture to a top 10 team that is projected as the #4 seed in the West, and Boston went from a slightly disappointing start to the best record in the league. Toronto and Dallas have cooled off considerably, but both still find themselves in the middle of the playoff pack thanks to hot starts. Here are my full current rankings and playoff picks:

				Record		Proj
Rank	LW	Team	Rating	W	L	W	L	Seed
1	1	Cleveland	-7.206	12	6	59	23	E2
2	7	Boston	-7.154	14	4	62	20	E1
3	2	Phoenix	-6.123	11	6	57	25	W1
4	6	New Orleans	-5.834	11	7	56	26	W2
5	3	Milwaukee	-2.15	12	5	48	34	E3
6	8	Utah	-2.14	12	8	48	34	W3
7	10	Chicago	-1.778	8	10	44	38	E6
8	12	Philadelphia	-1.768	9	9	44	38	E5
9	24	Sacramento	-1.431	10	7	46	36	W4
10	4	Dallas	-1.301	9	8	44	38	W7
11	11	Portland	-1.063	10	8	45	37	W5
12	9	Memphis	-0.936	10	8	44	38	W6
13	14	Atlanta	-0.923	11	7	45	37	E4
14	5	Toronto	-0.61	9	9	42	40	E7
15	15	Brooklyn	-0.609	9	10	42	40	E8
16	16	Denver	-0.177	11	7	43	39	W8
17	22	Indiana	0.1771	10	7	41	41	E9
18	17	Miami	0.5671	8	11	38	44	OUT
19	25	Golden State	0.5922	9	10	39	43	W10
20	19	Minnesota	0.6599	10	8	40	42	W9
21	20	Washington	0.6939	10	8	40	42	E10
22	13	New York	1.1185	9	9	38	44	OUT
23	18	Oklahoma City	1.5771	7	11	35	47	OUT
24	26	LA Clippers	2.1559	11	8	37	45	OUT
25	21	Orlando	3.84	5	13	28	54
26	29	LA Lakers	4.1417	5	11	28	54
27	23	Charlotte	4.462	5	14	27	55
28	28	Houston	5.7931	3	14	23	59
29	30	Detroit	5.8185	5	15	24	58
30	27	San Antonio	8.506	6	13	20	62

Playoff Picks

Play In

(7) Raptors over (8) Nets

(9) Pacers over (10) Wizards

(8) Nets over (9) Pacers

(7) Mavericks over (8) Nuggets

(9) Timberwolves over (10) Warriors

(8) Nuggets over (9) Timberwolves

First Round

(1) Celtics over (8) Nets in 5

(2) Cavaliers over (7) Raptors in 5

(3) Bucks over (6) Bulls in 6

(4) Hawks over (5) 76ers in 7

(1) Suns over (8) Nuggets in 5

(2) Pelicans over (7) Mavericks in 5

(3) Jazz over (6) Grizzlies in 6

(4) Kings over (5) Trail Blazers in 6

Second Round

(1) Celtics over (4) Hawks in 5

(2) Cavaliers over (3) Bucks in 5

(1) Suns over (4) Kings in 5

(2) Pelicans over (3) Jazz in 5

Conference Finals

(1) Celtics over (2) Cavaliers in 7

(1) Suns over (2) Pelicans in 7

NBA Finals

(1) Celtics over (1) Suns in 6