Here is how each team's odds look currently of advancing through each round and of winning the championship, with change since the playoffs began in parentheses:
Odds of Winning First Round
(2) Celtics - 96.1% (+9.2)
(3) 76ers - 92.2% (+17.3)
(1) Nuggets - 88.1% (+19.3)
(3) Kings - 82.2% (+25.5)
(1) Bucks - 70.7% (-9.5)
(2) Grizzlies - 63.8% (-10.7)
(4) Cavaliers - 61.7% (-7.5)
(4) Suns - 57.7% (-7.7)
(5) Clippers - 42.3% (+7.7)
(5) Knicks - 38.3% (+7.5)
(7) Lakers - 36.2% (+10.7)
(8) Heat - 29.3% (+9.5)
(6) Warriors - 17.8% (-25.5)
(8) Timberwolves - 11.9% (-19.3)
(6) Nets - 7.8% (-17.3)
(7) Hawks - 3.9% (-9.2)
The biggest change has been in the Kings-Warriors series, also the only one that I picked to end with the lower seed winning, which has not been the case so far. All higher seeds are still favorites, even though 4 have lost home court advantage.
Odds of Reaching Conference Finals
(2) Celtics - 63.4% (+2.8)
(1) Nuggets - 58.8% (+14.9)
(4) Cavaliers - 40.6% (-2.5)
(2) Grizzlies - 39.8% (-8.6)
(3) Kings - 39.2% (+14.4)
(1) Bucks - 34.8% (-4.4)
(3) 76ers - 34.6% (+4.1)
(4) Suns - 24.3% (-7.7)
(5) Knicks - 19.0% (+4.8)
(7) Lakers - 13.3% (+4.0)
(5) Clippers - 12.8% (+0.0)
(6) Warriors - 7.7% (-9.7)
(8) Heat - 5.6% (+2.1)
(8) Timberwolves - 4.2% (-7.1)
(6) Nets - 1.3% (-4.1)
(7) Hawks - 0.1% (-3.4)
Denver and Sacramento have outperformed expectations so far, leading to big jumps in their odds. The Knicks and Lakers have made the biggest jumps among the lower seeds.
Odds of Making NBA Finals
(2) Celtics - 41.8% (+3.3)
(1) Nuggets - 35.0% (+10.3)
(2) Grizzlies - 22.1% (-7.5)
(3) 76ers - 19.0% (+3.3)
(3) Kings - 18.4% (+5.8)
(4) Cavaliers - 18.4% (-2.5)
(1) Bucks - 14.1% (-3.4)
(4) Suns - 11.2% (-3.3)
(5) Knicks - 5.5% (+0.9)
(7) Lakers - 4.5% (+1.1)
(5) Clippers - 4.3% (+0.1)
(6) Warriors - 3.1% (-4.6)
(8) Timberwolves - 1.2% (-2.1)
(8) Heat - 0.8% (+0.3)
(6) Nets - 0.3% (-1.1)
(7) Hawks - 0.2% (-0.6)
A 2-0 lead and a loss by Memphis have made the Nuggets the favorites in the West, while Boston is still cruising in the East.
Odds of Winning NBA Finals
(2) Celtics - 31.9% (+2.5)
(3) 76ers - 12.6% (+2.3)
(1) Nuggets - 12.6% (+3.9)
(4) Cavaliers - 12.5% (-1.8)
(1) Bucks - 8.7% (-2.3)
(2) Grizzlies - 8.0% (-3.5)
(3) Kings - 5.1% (+1.5)
(4) Suns - 3.0% (-1.1)
(5) Knicks - 2.7% (+0.3)
(7) Lakers - 0.8% (+0.2)
(5) Clippers - 0.8% (+0.0)
(6) Warriors - 0.7% (-1.2)
(8) Heat - 0.2% (+0.0)
(8) Timberwolves - 0.2% (-0.3)
(6) Nets - 0.1% (-0.4)
(7) Hawks - 0.1% (-0.2)
Once again, it's Denver on the rise and the Grizzlies falling. Boston is a heavy favorite at this point, with 5 more teams grouped pretty close together behind them.
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