NBA Playoff Odds - 2023

After breaking down every possible playoff matchup, factoring in home court and crunching all of the numbers, I've come up with every team's odds of advancing through each round of the playoffs and coming out as the ultimate champion, and I'm also including my picks at the bottom.

Odds of Winning First Round

(2) Celtics - 86.9%

(1) Bucks - 80.2%

(3) 76ers - 74.9%

(2) Grizzlies - 74.5%

(4) Cavaliers - 69.2%

(1) Nuggets - 68.8%

(4) Suns - 65.4%

(3) Kings - 56.7%

(6) Warriors - 43.3%

(5) Clippers - 34.6%

(8) Timberwolves - 31.2%

(5) Knicks - 30.8%

(7) Lakers - 25.5%

(6) Nets - 25.1%

(8) Heat - 19.8%

(7) Hawks - 13.1%

Odds of Reaching Conference Finals

(2) Celtics - 60.6%

(2) Grizzlies - 48.4%

(1) Nuggets - 43.9%

(4) Cavaliers - 43.1%

(1) Bucks - 39.2%

(4) Suns - 32.0%

(3) 76ers - 30.5%

(3) Kings - 24.8%

(6) Warriors - 17.4%

(5) Knicks - 14.2%

(5) Clippers - 12.8%

(8) Timberwolves - 11.3%

(7) Lakers - 9.3%

(6) Nets - 5.4%

(8) Heat - 3.5%

(7) Hawks - 3.5%

Odds of Reaching NBA Finals

(2) Celtics - 38.5%

(2) Grizzlies - 29.6%

(1) Nuggets - 24.7%

(4) Cavaliers - 20.9%

(1) Bucks - 17.5%

(3) 76ers - 15.7%

(4) Suns - 14.5%

(3) Kings - 12.6%

(6) Warriors - 7.7%

(5) Knicks - 4.6%

(5) Clippers - 4.2%

(7) Lakers - 3.4%

(8) Timberwolves - 3.3%

(6) Nets - 1.4%

(7) Hawks - 0.8%

(8) Heat - 0.5%

Odds of Winning NBA Championship

(2) Celtics - 29.4%

(4) Cavaliers - 14.3%

(2) Grizzlies - 11.5%

(1) Bucks - 11.0%

(3) 76ers - 10.3%

(1) Nuggets - 8.7%

(4) Suns - 4.1%

(3) Kings - 3.6%

(5) Knicks - 2.4%

(6) Warriors - 1.9%

(5) Clippers - 0.8%

(7) Lakers - 0.6%

(6) Nets - 0.5%

(8) Timberwolves - 0.5%

(7) Hawks - 0.3%

(8) Heat - 0.2%

My Picks

First Round

(1) Bucks over (8) Heat in 6

(2) Celtics over (7) Hawks in 4

(3) 76ers over (6) Nets in 4

(4) Cavaliers over (5) Knicks in 7

(1) Nuggets over (8) Timberwolves in 6

(2) Grizzlies over (7) Lakers in 6

(6) Warriors over (3) Kings in 6

(4) Suns over (5) Clippers in 6

Second Round

(4) Cavaliers over (1) Bucks in 5

(2) Celtics over (3) 76ers in 5

(4) Suns over (1) Nuggets in 7

(2) Grizzlies over (6) Warriors in 6

Conference Finals

(4) Cavaliers over (2) Celtics in 6

(4) Suns over (2) Grizzlies in 7

NBA Finals

(4) Cavaliers over (4) Suns in 4