NFL Playoff Odds - Update

Wild card weekend ended with the 2, 5, and 6 seeds winning in each conference, and only one of the 8 teams with the highest odds of advancing losing, that being the Pittsburgh Steelers. After entering the weekend's data and updating matchups, here are the latest odds of each remaining team moving forward through each round and winning it all, with change from last week in parentheses:

Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

1. Chiefs - 68.1% (+8.4)

2. Packers - 54.9% (-4.3)

3. Saints - 50.52% (+9.0)

4. Ravens - 50.48% (+15.7)

5. Bills - 49.52% (+14.8)

6. Buccaneers - 49.48% (+10.6)

7. Rams - 45.1% (+22.3)

8. Browns - 31.9% (+20.9)

The only team whose odds went down was Green Bay, who lost out on their chance of facing Washington or Chicago, instead facing the Rams, who have a great pass defense and have been excellent at times this season. Kansas City got their wish to face the Browns, giving them a huge boost without even having played last week.

Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. Chiefs - 33.2% (+1.4)

2. Ravens - 28.9% (+9.9)

3. Bills - 28.1% (+9.3)

4. Saints - 27.8% (+5.4)

5. Buccaneers - 27.0% (+5.4)

6. Packers - 26.1% (-4.6)

7. Rams - 19.1% (+8.9)

8. Browns - 9.8% (+6.3)

Baltimore's win over Tennessee helped them out a bit here, but they were also helped by Cleveland winning, which lets them face Buffalo this week instead of their kryptonite in Kansas City, giving them one extra week to prepare and hope that maybe the Chiefs slip up. Green Bay has a very tough path to the Super Bowl, no matter which all-time great wins this weekend in New Orleans.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Chiefs - 15.64% (+0.0)

2. Saints - 15.58% (+2.8)

3. Buccaneers - 15.1% (+2.6)

4. Ravens - 14.1% (+4.5)

5. Packers - 13.9% (-2.9)

6. Bills - 13.6% (+4.1)

7. Rams - 9.3% (+4.3)

8. Browns - 2.9% (+1.9)

These odds got even more muddled after that weekend, with 6 teams holding nearly even odds of winning it all, and the Rams still in solid contention. Only the Browns seem unlikely to win it all, but they are definitely not out of it.

My Updated Picks

Divisional

(1) Chiefs over (6) Browns

(5) Ravens over (2) Bills

(1) Packers over (6) Rams

(2) Saints over (5) Buccaneers

Conference

(1) Chiefs over (5) Ravens

(2) Saints over (1) Packers

Super Bowl

(2) Saints over (1) Chiefs

No change in my Super Bowl pick, just in the path to get there due to the change in matchups for this weekend.