Thursday, January 20, 2022

NFL Playoff Odds - Update

5 of the 6 teams that I picked to win over the weekend finished the job, with only Dallas falling short after screwing up their clock management at the end of the game. I've updated my odds by adding in the weekend's results and updating all current and possible future matchups, which leaves a new overall favorite. Here are my current odds for the 8 remaining teams, with change from last week in parentheses:


Odds of Reaching Conference Championship

1. Buccaneers - 57.6% (+21.2)

2. Packers - 55.2% (-1.5)

3. Titans - 54.3% (-2.2)

4. Bills - 51.9% (+18.9)

5. Chiefs - 48.1% (+7.7)

6. Bengals - 45.7% (+17.3)

7. 49ers - 44.8% (+28.3)

8. Rams - 42.4% (+18.4)


A bunch of favorites winning meant a slight drop in the odds for the #1 seeds, while all of the winners saw obvious increases, with the 49ers seeing the biggest jump after pulling off the only upset of the wild card round, and Kansas City seeing the smallest increase after they got the toughest possible opponent for their next game.


Odds of Reaching Super Bowl

1. Bills - 33.4% (+12.3)

2. Buccaneers - 32.5% (+12.3)

3. Chiefs - 28.2% (+5.3)

4. Packers - 27.1% (-0.9)

5. Titans - 22.9% (-3.2)

6. Rams - 22.3% (+11.0)

7. 49ers - 18.0% (+10.8)

8. Bengals - 15.6% (+3.2)


Cincinnati saw the smallest increase in their odds because they will not be playing any more games at home this season, while Tennessee's odds dropped a bit because Kansas City and Buffalo stayed alive, giving the Titans a tougher opponent in the AFC title game if they get that far.


Odds of Winning Super Bowl

1. Bills - 19.3% (+7.5)

2. Buccaneers - 17.4% (+6.2)

3. Chiefs - 14.6% (+2.8)

4. Packers - 12.8% (-1.2)

5. Rams - 11.1% (+5.5)

6. Titans - 9.9% (-1.5)

7. 49ers - 8.3% (+4.9)

8. Bengals - 6.7% (+1.3)


Buffalo saw the largest jump after destroying New England, and they are now the favorite to win it all, though every team still has a decent chance, leaving it completely wide-open still.


My Picks

Divisional

(1) Titans over (4) Bengals

(2) Chiefs over (3) Bills

(6) 49ers over (1) Packers

(4) Rams over (2) Buccaneers


Conference

(2) Chiefs over (1) Titans

(4) Rams over (6) 49ers


Super Bowl

(2) Chiefs over (4) Rams

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